Wednesday, 19 August 2020

A case of the Missing Argument

Context :

NITI Aayog recommends major reduction in sugar cultivation

EXTRACT :

Ø Facts :

# Around 52 lakh hectares of land is currently under sugarcane

# Agricultural experts predict there will be an opening stock of 112 lakh tons of

sugar at the beginning of the crushing season, which begins in October and ends

in March. It is expected that the closing stock at the end of the season will be

around 93 lakh tons

# Maharashtra produces around 33 % of sugar in the country. The sugarcane is

the most important cash crop in the state with around 30 lakh farmers engaged

in sugarcane farming

# Out of 33 Cabinet Mnisters in the State, 15 own and control one or more sugar

factories in their district , both in private and cooperative sector

Ø Recommendation of NITI Aayog

# Centre should give incentive of Rs 6,000 per hectare to farmers to divert their

land to other crops

Ø Arguments by NITI Aayog

# Total area under sugar cultivation can be brought down by 3 lakh hectares over

the next 3 years, provided farmers were given cash incentives

# Sugar factories should also be allowed to buy only 85 % of sugarcane from

farmers to discourage them from bringing more and more area under sugarcane

cultivation

# The Central Government should stop maintaining buffer stocks of sugar … under

the ( buffer stock ) scheme, 12 percent of the overall stock is left unsold in factory

warehouses, which artificially raises the price of the commodity. The government

bears the carrying cost, storage cost and insurance premium on the stock

==================================================

Shri Prakash Naiknavare, managing director of the National Federation Cooperative Sugar Factories , says :

( nfcsfnd@gmail.com / nfcsf@yahoo.co.in )

Ø One way of reducing production of sugar is to divert more and more sugarcane towards producing ethanol.

The factories will do it happily as they get payment for ethanol from petroleum

companies in only 21 days , whereas otherwise they have to hold onto their stocks

for minimum 7 to 8 months, before it is sold

Is Nitin Gadkariji likely to support Shri Naiknavare ? – and overrule NITI Aayog ?

Most likely . Here is what he said in Feb 2017 :

He said at present ethanol is derived from molasses which is barely 119 crore litres as against a minimum requirement of about 500 crore litres.

"We get hardly 3 % ethanol whereas we can mix 22 % in petrol. There is shortage of 19 per cent..

Promotion to green fuel like ethanol will not only arrest migration of people from villages to town but using bio technology production of biomass could be enhanced and more people could be roped in for employment, he said.

-----------------------------------------------------

So, what is wrong with cultivating MORE sugarcane to produce more ethanol ? ( Missing Argument ? )

Ø It takes 1700 gallons ( 6426 litre ) of water to produce one gallon of ethanol .

Assuming a 30 gallon gasoline tank in a SUV, we calculate 51,000 gallons of water

for the corn ethanol fill up ( Prof David Pimentel of Cornell University )

Ø Each time someone fills up an SUV with corn Ethanol, he or she uses as much water as the average American residential user consumes in 16 months !

[ source : What are “ side effects “ of Ethanol ? / 29 Apr 2018 ]

----------------------------------------------------

So , how much water do other crops need to produce 1 kg ?

Here are some facts :

Ø Rice ……………………….. 3.000 / 5,000 litre

Ø Cotton………………………22,500 litre

Ø Sugarcane………………..1500 / 3000 litre

Ø Soya………………………… 900 litre

Ø Wheat……………………… 900 litre

Hence, at 3000 litre / kg , sugarcane crop would need :

3000 litre / Kg x 1000 kg = 3,000,000 litre per ton, of sugarcane ( 3 million litre / ton )

Now, in India, we harvest 76 tons of sugarcane per hectare

( source : Indian Institute of Sugarcane Research )

That would require :

3 million litre / ton x 76 tons / hectare = 228 million litre of water required / hectare

Hence , by reducing 3 lakh hectare of Sugarcane crop, we can save :

3 lakh hectare x 228 million litre / hectare = 684 million*lakh litre of water / year

I leave it to you , how many extra tons of wheat we can produce each year, from these 3 lakh hectare of “ freed land “ , using 684 million*lakh litres of “ freed water “

And whether this “additional production “of wheat can help us save 1663 children ( under the age of 5 ), who meet a “ premature death “ in India EACH DAY, due to “ Starvation “

How much will this cost the Government if NITI Aayog recommendation ws accepted ?

Rs 6000 / hectare x 3 lakh hectare = Rs 18,000 lakh / year ( Rs 180 Crore )

---------------------------------------------------