When the H-1B Door Closes: Why I Keep Saying India Must Become the ‘Brain Factory’

The news that the United States is tightening access for foreign workers — and that other players, including China, are quietly moving to fill any gaps — reads to me like a confirmation of a pattern I’ve written about for years. The Times of India headline captured it plainly: “US says no to foreign workers with H-1B move; China says 'K' — Will Beijing score in visa game?” US says no to foreign workers with H-1B move; China says 'K'.

Inevitably, when borders tighten or visas become harder to secure, people talk about loss — of opportunity, of income, of migration dreams. I see the same thing as both a problem and a lever for transformation.

Why this feels familiar

I wrote about the structural shock facing Indian IT years ago: a world where headcount-led models would break under automation, geopolitics and changing visa regimes. In that post I asked, can Indian IT reinvent itself? and answered bluntly: the time is now Can Indian IT Re-invent itself ?. I warned that dependence on sending people abroad — H‑1B or otherwise — was a strategic fragility. When the H‑1B tap runs lower, it’s not just individuals who lose out: entire business models wobble.

Even earlier, I penned pieces imagining alternative pathways — from holographic delivery to platform-driven models — in case travel and physical deployment became constrained Will Holograms beat H1-B visa ban?. I also argued that India must treat talent as an exportable product beyond mere deployment — intellectual property, R&D and global capability centres rather than just hands-on labour India: the BRAIN FACTORY of the WORLD.

Reading today’s coverage, I felt a curious mix of validation and urgency. Validation — because patterns I flagged are playing out. Urgency — because the window to act is now.

What the H‑1B squeeze (and China’s response) actually means

• Short-term pain for many: families disrupted, plans changed, careers stalled. Plenty of H‑1B holders and applicants feel stranded; I covered the surge in job-portal activity and anxiety years ago when the industry first signalled structural change Job portals see surge in IT resumes.

• Redistribution of talent flows: If the U.S. becomes harder, other destinations will adapt policies to attract talent. China’s moves — the press calling it “’K’” in the visa game — are an example of geopolitical competition for skills US says no to foreign workers with H-1B move; China says 'K'.

• Acceleration of remote-first models: Companies that already mastered remote delivery and offshore capability centres will win. I’ve written about the opportunity this creates for India’s GCCs and R&D centres to scale — not merely to supply labour but to own IP and outcome-based pricing Brain Inc 2.0 / GCC hiring in India.

The argument I’ve been making — again and again

The core idea I’ve been trying to push since 2015 is simple: don’t treat migration as the only form of exporting talent. Build an India that exports ideas, platforms and intellectual property. Turn the arbitrage we have today into long-term capability and global centres of excellence. I made the same point in “The Chinese are Coming!” where I urged partnering with capital flows rather than panicking at them The Chinese are Coming!.

If this sounds repetitive, it’s because the underlying forces are persistent. My earlier blogs weren’t random forecasts; they were scenarios and possible responses. Looking back I see that I had flagged many of these dynamics — the fragility of visa-dependent models, the rise of automation, the strategic importance of IP — and even sketched solutions. That continuity matters to me: it’s a quiet validation that good pattern recognition, coupled with a practical bent, can be useful. It also makes me feel a renewed urgency to press these ideas harder.

What I’m watching now

• How many global firms accelerate hiring into Indian GCCs and push more high-value work here rather than abroad. That’s already happening in pockets; I chronicled GCC growth as a major opportunity MNC hiring in India / GCCs may hire half a million.

• Whether India’s policy environment rewards creation of IP, not just cheap delivery — taxation, grants, infrastructure for R&D.

• Which nations adjust visa windows to hunt for the displaced talent; geopolitics is now directly competing for our human capital A tale of two approaches — boycotts, policy responses.

A closing, personal note

I feel a strange comfort when events vindicate earlier warnings — not for vanity, but because it means those earlier proposals deserve renewed attention. I’ve repeatedly asked: if the world changes the rules of movement and work, why not change the rules of how we create value? The H‑1B shock and China’s moves are further proof that we must make that shift — from exporting bodies to exporting brains, platforms and IP.

The moment is uncomfortable for many. For me it’s a call to action: turn disruption into design.

References

• "US says no to foreign workers with H-1B move; China says 'K' — Will Beijing score in visa game?" Times of India. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/international-business/us-says-no-to-foreign-workers-with-h-1b-move-china-says-k-will-beijing-score-in-visa-game/articleshow/124039263.cms

• "Can Indian IT Re-invent itself ?" Hemen Parekh (2017). http://emailothers.blogspot.com/2017/02/donald-trumps-next-executive-order-may.html

• "Will Holograms beat H1-B visa ban?" Hemen Parekh (2017). http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/01/will-holograms-beat-h1b-visa-ban.html

• "India: the BRAIN FACTORY of the WORLD" Hemen Parekh (2023). http://emailothers.blogspot.com/2023/09/india-brain-factory-of-world.html

• "Job portals see surge in IT resumes" Hemen Parekh (2017). http://emailothers.blogspot.com/2017/05/seeing-opportunity.html

• "The Chinese are Coming!" Hemen Parekh (2015). http://emailothers.blogspot.com/2015/12/the-chinese-are-coming.html

• "A tale of two approaches" Hemen Parekh (2020). http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2020/06/a-tale-of-two-approaches.html

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Regards,
Hemen Parekh