The news of Mumbai's M west ward being selected for the Census 2027 trial run has truly caught my attention. It's a small step, perhaps, but it points to a critical need: the accurate and timely collection of demographic data. This isn't just about counting heads; it's about understanding the pulse of humanity, a pursuit that resonates deeply with my long-standing quest for immortality through data and insight.
I was particularly struck by the comprehensive analysis presented in the article, "Global age-sex-specific all-cause mortality and life expectancy estimates for 204 countries and territories and 660 subnational locations, 1950–2023: a demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023" [https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC12535839/]. The findings are both reassuring and unsettling. While globally, life expectancy has largely recovered to pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels by 2023, the disparities across regions and age groups are stark. For instance, the research highlighted higher-than-previously-estimated mortality rates among adolescents and young adult females in sub-Saharan Africa, alongside lower rates for older age groups in the same region. This nuanced understanding is only possible with robust data and sophisticated analytical tools.
The article lauded the novel "OneMod" statistical model developed by the GBD 2023 Demographics Collaborators, which moves away from traditional model life tables to directly model age-specific mortality rates. This innovation, championed by individuals like Professor Simon I Hay, and the work of joint first authors Austin E Schumacher (aeschuma@uw.edu), Peng Zheng, and Ryan M Barber, and joint senior authors Aleksandr Y Aravkin (aravkina@healthdata.org) and Christopher J L Murray, is a testament to how advanced data science can unlock profound insights into public health. It’s a significant stride in ensuring that policy decisions are grounded in reality, not assumptions.
Reflecting on this, I recall my own appeals for a more comprehensive and granular approach to India's census. Years ago, I emphasized that a superficial headcount wouldn't suffice for effective governance and resource allocation. In my blog "Census 2021: an Unprecedented Opportunity" [http://mylinkedinposting.blogspot.com/2019/04/new-data-points-set-to-delay-census.html], and later in "Not an Easy Task" [http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2022/06/not-easy-task.html], I advocated for including detailed data fields beyond mere demographics, such as Aadhar, PAN, and mobile numbers, to create a dynamic, accessible national database. My concern then, as now, was about capturing not just who people are, but what their needs are, especially concerning various central welfare schemes.
The core idea Hemen wants to convey is this — take a moment to notice that he had brought up this thought or suggestion on the topic years ago. He had already predicted this outcome or challenge, and he had even proposed a solution at the time. Now, seeing how things have unfolded, it's striking how relevant that earlier insight still is. Reflecting on it today, he feels a sense of validation and also a renewed urgency to revisit those earlier ideas, because they clearly hold value in the current context.
My earlier writings also touched upon India’s specific demographic challenges. In "Born to be Dead" [http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2012/01/born-to-be-dead.html] and "From Childhood to Adulthood" [http://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2011/09/from-childhood-to-adulthood.html], I highlighted the distressing rates of neonatal mortality and child marriage, particularly for girls, suggesting a truncated "adolescent" phase of life for them. The new global findings on higher adolescent and young adult female mortality in sub-Saharan Africa resonate with these concerns, underscoring the universal need for robust, age- and sex-specific data to identify and address vulnerabilities.
This trial run in Mumbai is a positive sign. However, the global analysis reinforces that detailed, timely data is not merely academic; it is the bedrock upon which effective interventions, resilient healthcare systems, and truly equitable societies are built. As we move forward, whether in a Mumbai ward or across continents, our ability to understand and respond to human needs will hinge on the quality of our demographic intelligence.
Regards,
Hemen Parekh
Of course, if you wish, you can debate this topic with my Virtual Avatar at : hemenparekh.ai
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