A Contrarian View

Pakistani prime minister , Nawaz Sharif , yesterday suggested that America should get “ involved “ in solving the “ Kashmir Issue “

Expectedly , Indian politicians are all united ( at least on one issue ! ) in telling USA :

“ Keep your hands off Kashmir . We don’t need third party intervention to solve , what is essentially , our bilateral problem , as agreed in Shimla Agreement .

 “

Except that no politician is willing to admit the harsh ground reality that , after 60 years of LoC skirmishes – and thousands of deaths , India and Pakistan have failed to resolve the issue “ bilaterally “ !

Late Vasant Sathe was the only politician who had the ( suicidal ? ) courage to say ,

“ Only practical solution is for both countries to accept LoC as the international border “

And such a “ practical solution “ can come about only through a third-party mediation , without making either Indian or Pakistani politicians losing face !

Let us admit :

Ø  Without a peaceful solution of Kashmir Issue , thousands of innocent Indians living close to LoC will continue to die

Ø  Unlike Israel , India cannot engage in “ Hot Pursuit “ of the terrorists into Pak-Occupied Kashmir , without risking an all-out Nuclear war

Ø  Western Nations ( especially USA ) need Pakistan to fight  Al Qaida.     Despite endless Indian protestations , billions of dollars worth of American Aid money to improve Pakistan’s economy will continue to fund terrorists in POK

Ø  China is encircling India by establishing strong economic / military presence in Tibet / Nepal / Myanmar / Sri-Lanka / Maldive / Pakistan etc

Ø  Even Russian support to India is waning , as Russian economy gets more and more integrated with EU

Let us ask ourselves :

“ Is it right to continue spending billions of rupees in maintaining our military presence in Kashmir , when 400 million BPL Indians don’t get 2 meals a day ?


  How long must 1.6 million Indian children ( below the age of 5 ) continue to die , year after year , due to starvation ? “

Alas ! Neither Rahul Gandhi nor Narendra Modi would have the moral courage to answer this question !

In their party’s Poll Manifestos , there will be a deafening silence on this practical solution !

·          hemen  parekh  ( 20  Oct  2013  )

 

BJP Poll Manifesto

 

Mr Murli Manohar Joshi is in charge of drawing up BJP’s Poll Manifesto for 2014 Lok Sabha Elections

He has invited suggestions from public for possible incorporation in the manifesto , if found suitable

Based on my perception of what would benefit the public most ( in order of importance ) , following is how BJP’s manifesto should read :

Ø   Corruption

We will introduce / pass , “ Anna-Version “ of Jan Lok-Pal Bill within 2 months of assuming power at the Center

Ø   Jobs

  

     We will create 15 million jobs per year , starting from 2015

Ø   Economy

We will liberalize FDI in Insurance / Retail and all other non-defense related sectors of economy

Ø   Productive Use of  Un-Productive Money

We will create a structure, whereby Private sector and Religious Trusts ( such as Tirupati / Lord Padmanabhan / Shirdi SaiBaba / Satya SaiBaba / Siddhi Vinayak / VaishnoDevi etc ) , will come forward to invest , at least Rs 10 lakh crores per year for the next 5 years. This will be done thru,

·          No-Tax  ( for 10 years ) , “ Job Creation “ Bonds , exclusively devoted to creation of Jobs for poor people in less-developed states

·         Enabling investments into these bonds , thru a Voluntary Disclosure Scheme ( VDS ) where no questions will be asked as to the source of the funds. This will bring back Rs 35 lakh crores stashed away unproductively / secretly by Indian nationals and Trusts

·         We will create similar “ Job Creation “ Bonds where subscription will be restricted to,

#  NRIs  /  PIOs

#  Foreign NGOS / Charitable Trusts

#  Foreign Sovereign Funds

  

·         We will introduce this measure within 6 months of coming to power

Ø   CBI

We will make CBI truly independent of the Central Government , by making Chief of CBI report to the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court.

CBI will have its own Expense Budget ( as part of the Central Budget ) and will be free to hire additional professionals without needing permission from any Central Ministry

Ø   Electoral Reforms

We will introduce , within 6 months , a Electoral Reforms Bill in Lok Sabha. This will have provisions for

·         NOTA

·         Right to Recall

·         Negative Vote …………..etc

Ø   Representation of People Act

We will amend this Act within 6 months of assuming power , by incorporating provisions for

·         Acceptance of ALL donations to political parties only thru cheques

·         Issue of paper receipts for all donations

·         Publishing on party web site ,

    #   full details of funding / expenditure etc

    #   full details of Assets / Liabilities / Income Tax Returns filed etc of Senior party functionaries ( including those holding Ministerial positions ) – updated annually

   #   full details of FIRs / Court-Cases ( whether criminal or civil ) filed against any Senior Party Functionaries , with punishments awarded , if any

   #   number of Lok Sabha / Rajya Sabha meetings attended by its elected representatives

Ø   Naxal  /  Maoist Menace

We will eliminate this menace thru full integration of these Tribal areas into the mainstream of the Social / Political and Economic development.

We will do this by granting special status to these areas , where industries / businesses / NGOs , will be encouraged to set up Skills Training Institutes , by giving accelerated depreciation benefit for the Capital Expenditure incurred and 150 % write-off on the recurring annual revenue expenditure

Ø   Relations with Pakistan

Whereas we will encourage constructive dialogue with Pakistan to resolve all outstanding issues , this will be done only after Pakistan dismantles all terror-training camps on its territory , as certified by a UN Agency , on an ongoing basis

   Dear Mr Joshi :

 I am not sure how many citizens will take the trouble to spell out their suggestions like this

My last suggestion is that you frame a “ Multiple Choice Questionnaire “

Publish this on as many Media as possible – especially Online Web sites

Then ask people to record their choices

A Smart Phone based Mobile App would be great !

·          hemen  parekh  (  19  Oct  2013  ) 

Winds of Change ?

Hardly a week passes without some Newspapers or TV Channels announcing the results of their “ Opinion Polls “ of voters re :

Ø  Forthcoming State Elections

Ø  Narendra Modi  vs  Rahul Gandhi

Ø  NDA  vs  UPA  vs  Third Front …..etc

Not only the number of voters being polled increasing but even the coverage is increasing

Questions being asked are mostly open-ended

But then , all Statistical Sampling carry the danger of a bias getting introduced through,

Ø  Conducting Agency

Ø  Sample Size

Ø  No of Options ( Centralization Tendency )

Ø  Leading questions

Ø  Stratification of people being polled….etc

Given all of these limitations , there can be no doubt that the Opinion Polls are pointers to the shape of things to come

Whereas contesting parties – and candidates – can afford to debate the accuracy of the exact “ Numbers “ , they may ignore the “ Trend “ at their own peril !

The trend is very clear ,

Ø  In Delhi , Aam Aadmi Party ( AAP ) will come to power with an absolute majority

Ø  In other 4 States , BJP will improve its share

Ø  At the Centre ( in 2014 National Elections ) , NDA may form the Government thru a coalition

On 4^th Dec , people of Delhi will re-confirm these trends by electing 40 + AAP candidates

The Wind of Change is an ill-wind that blows Congress no good  !

·          hemen  parekh  (  19  Oct  2013  )

   

Getting Even ?

Of course , UPA will try to get even with NDA in the parliament , if NDA gets voted to power in next general elections

By not allowing the parliament to function  - as NDA has successfully managed in past one year

A tit for tat ?  You bet  !

Forthcoming winter session is unlikely to be any different with CBI expected to file many more FIR against high and mighty , in the coming months  , for the Coal-Gate scam

With BJP demanding resignations of SriPrakash Jaiswal / Man Mohan Singh etc ,  Lok Sabha will come to a stand-still

A kind of suspended animation ;  no better than the vegetative life of a person in comma !

In the meantime , neither the Ministers nor the Secretaries of various ministries will dispose-off any file by making any noting !

Decision-making will come to a Full Stop !

There will be no use to keep alive ( thru an artificial life-support system ) ,  a “  Brain-Dead  “ Lok Sabha  !

It is time to cut short people’s agony and announce early National Elections

Just as he did with the issue of the Ordinance , I hope Rahul Gandhi has the necessary moral courage to tell his mother and Man Mohan Singh :

“  Enough is enough ! Let us put an end to this charade

    

  There is no loss of face in recognizing the truth. No matter how unprepared we may be to face the people , let there be elections in Jan 2014  “

Only this time , let him not announce his views publicly in a Press Conference !

·          hemen  parekh   (  17  Oct  2013  )

The Debt Trap

In the next 24 hours , expect American Congress to raise the Debt-Ceiling , once again

As it has raised it 71 times in the past 40 years

Other alternatives before the American Congress are :

Ø  Raise taxes ( to increase State income  )

Ø  Reduce Expenses (  eg:  ObamaCare  )

Ø  Print more money (  and fuel inflation  )

But these are all , very unpopular measures with the American public . And no politician likes to be unpopular

So , the easy way out is :

  

Borrow more  –  let each American grandchild worry about repaying to the rest of the World , a measly sum of $ 52,000  !

We will not be around when the bubble bursts  !

Tomorrow will , somehow take care of itself  !

With annual revenue of $ 2.4 trillion and expenses of $ 3.5 trillion , how else can America make ends meet ?

No one in America seems to be asking :

  

·         Are we living beyond our means ?

·         How long can we sustain this high living standard on borrowed money ?

I hope , we in India do not fall into such a Debt-Trap

Fortunately ( ! ) , rich Indians have stashed away Rs 28 – 35 lakh crores  ( $ 462 – 572 billion ) in foreign banks ( as per Global Financial Integrity – GFI )

Offer them , a “ No Questions Asked “ , Voluntary Disclosure Scheme ( VDS ) to invest in tax-free Infrastructure Bonds

Then , we will not need to borrow from IMF to raise the standard of living of 400 million poor Indians , earning less than $ 1.2 per day

·          hemen  parekh  (  16  Oct  2013  )

BJP agrees with Congress ?

First it was Jairam Ramesh who said ,

“ In India more people have access to a mobile phone than have access to a toilet “

Then along came Narendra Modi to declare ,

“ For me , development translates into , Toilets before Temples “

It is another matter that both may be eyeing the votes of 50 % of the Indian population which have no access to private toilets and must do their dirty work , out in the open !

But then why is UPA government in a tearing hurry to give away ( free ) , 22.5 million mobile phones to BPL ( Below the poverty Line ) families ?

Especially when they already have a mobile phone ?



Would it not make more sense – even electoral sense – to urgently build 22.5 million toilets , on the corners of each and every street ?

Just imagine the boost that will give to the economy !

Can some clever engineers / economists figure out the number of jobs that will get created in the Steel / Cement / Construction industries ?

And by converting thousands of existing dry toilets to flush toilets , 750,000 families will be relieved of carrying night-soil ( from dry toilets ) on their heads ! A nation's shame beyond words !

If this idea is properly packaged / sold to Bill Gates , he may even make an outright grant of  $ ONE BILLION  to Sulabh Sauchalaya to implement the project !

Among dozens of differences , it is refreshing to find BJP and Congress agreeing that toilets make a better “ Meeting Place “ for millions , than Temples !

Cleanliness is Godliness

·           hemen  parekh  (  15  Oct  2013  ) 

Some learn : Some just won’t !

Ø  Naveen Patnaik  - CM. Odisha ( Learner )

In 1999 , a Super-Cyclone killed 10,000 people in Odisha

Before  Phailin Cyclone struck Gopalpur(Odisha) 

 two days back , Patnaik’s government had managed to move  900,000 people into hundreds of storm shelters  which it had constructed since 1999

Result  ?

Only 23 deaths so far

Ø  Shivraj  Patil – CM , Madhya Pradesh ( Forgetful )

In 2006 , in a stampede at a temple in Datiya district , 40 persons had died.

In a repeat of history , at the same temple , 109 persons died  yesterday , in an identical stampede !

Why  ?

MP Government failed to ,

·         Construct separate / barricaded pathways ( even if temporary ) for coming and returning traffic of lakhs of devotees  

·         Ensure single-person movement within these pathways (ala Tirupati )

·         Depute just 500 policemen all along the path to regulate the surge of the crowd

·         Provide CCTV-control booths at intervals of 500 meters each

  

·         Provide CCTV based “ Darshan “ of the deity along the way ( ala Shirdi SaiBaba )

·         Continuously issue instructions over Public Announcement System

·         Patrol the entire stretch with Police Vans and Ambulances

·         Make provision for water along the way

·         Get NGOs to help regulate traffic by providing volunteers

       But of course , as always expected after such – entirely avoidable tragedies ,

·         CM  /  PM  / UPA Chairperson and sundry other publicity-seeking politicians , expressed their “ deep shock and anguish “

·         State Government promptly announced a Magisterial  Inquiry

·         CM announced payment of Rs 1.5 lakhs to families of the victims ( Blood Money ? )

For politicians of India , life is not merely cheap , it is worth “ Ridicule “ !

They don’t treat this as “ Murder “ ! May be waiting for the Supreme Court to say so  !

So , why learn a lesson from the past ?

·          Hemen  parekh   (  14  Oct  2013  )