An Unprecedented Opportunity

While winning confidence vote in Delhi Assembly on 2nd Jan , Arvind Kejriwal re-iterated 18 promises made by AAP to people of Delhi

One of this is ;

Open 500 new schools in 5 years

That is approx one new school every 4th day  !

I was reminded of BJP's promise to people of Gujarat in its poll manifesto released on 3rd Dec 2012 , before Gujarat Assembly elections

Viz:

If voted to power , we will build 50 lakh houses for the poor of Gujarat in 5 years

which translates to, 2,739 new houses EVERY DAY  !

By now , BJP Government should have built  10,27,125  houses  !

But no one - even opposition - is asking ,

" Where are these houses ? "

AAP may not be so lucky , with people of Delhi - and BJP MLAs - asking every 4th day ,

"  When can I send my child to the new school  ?  "

No doubt , AAP , before releasing the manifesto , must have figured out the resources required to build 500 new schools , viz : ,

>   Land  ............  2,500 acres

>   Money  ..........  Rs 5,000 Crores

>   Teachers ........  25,000

>   Annual salaries / Maintenance cost......... Rs 100 Crores

But in case , if at this stage , it appears doubtful to raise such resources , there is a way out  !

Unlike BJP in Gujarat , AAP in Delhi can build 5,00 ( or even 5,000 ) ,

VIRTUAL  SCHOOLS

And do this in 6 months , instead of in 5 years  !

And do this at 1 % of the cost of building physical schools  !

Now all that AAP need to do to impart online education to 3 lakh Delhi children , is :

>   Find 3 lakh donors , each of whom will sponsor ONE Delhi child , by

     donating Rs 2,000 / -

>   With this money , buy 3 lakh tablet computers ,( Aakash 4 specs ), which are pre-loaded

     with all the text books and other instructional materials

>   At a cost of Rs 10 crores , cover entire Delhi with Wi-Max internet .

     Google ( or Bill Gates ) would be happy to help out

>   Grant Rs 10 crores to IIT-Delhi , to create " VIRTUAL CLASSROOMS "

      for each and every subject ( 1st to 10th standards )

      Prof Rahul Deshmukh ( IIT-Mumbai ) who has created such an

      infrastructure for the engineering subjects , should be happy to help

>   Get Dr Sugata Mitra ( the " Hole-in-the-Wall " fame , Delhi educationist )

      to spearhead the entire project - the broad framework being available

      in the Cover Story ( Can Technology Educate Us ? ) of Digit magazine

      of March 2013

If anyone in AAP has lingering doubts re feasibility of such a project , just send him to look at what Subhash Rathod , Principal of a small school of Sanganwa ( 35 Km from Rajkot ) has managed to do , ( and without any government help ! ) , viz ;

>  Wi-Fi enabled campus

>  Smart Classrooms

>  Digital Teaching Aids

    ( using Rs 5 lakhs of insurance money that Rathod received after the

      death of his only son in a road accident in 2011 )

>  Tablet for every child

     (  cost borne by a local industrialist , Jayanti Patoliya )

>  Syllabus and study materials in Gujarati , using special software

>  No school bags  !

People of India expect AAP to innovate , not just in ushering a NEW POLITICAL SYSTEM , but also in EDUCATION SYSTEM  !

ARVIND ,

Don't miss this unprecedented opportunity  !

*   hemen   parekh   (  05  Jan   2014  /  Mumbai  )

Lesson Number One

For Arvind Kejriwal - and his team of ministers and MLAs - lesson number one is :

TALK  LESS   /  WORK  MORE

You did not have to declare ( from roof-top too ! ),

"  If elected , we will shun government bungalows / cars / servants etc  "

No one had asked you for proof of your simplicity

But you went ahead and did it on your own !

Now that you have placed yourself under the microscope , people of Delhi are asking :

"  Why is Arvind moving into a 10 room bungalow  ?

    Why has he accepted security from UP government  ?

    Why are AAP ministers using government cars ( - chauffer driven too )  ?

    What were you trying to achieve - except perhaps fool the public - by

    travelling in metro / auto / Wagon-R , for first 4 days  ?  "

People of Delhi think that ,

>   they have been taken for a ride ( - no doubt , on metro ! )

>   you have pulled a fast one on them

>   you have betrayed their trust

DEAR  ARVIND ,

There was no need for you to have made those lofty declarations

But for your failed attempt to project your simplicity as a virtue , no one would have bothered to wonder why you are moving from a 3 bedroom flat to a 5 bedroom flat

People may have even appreciated that you intend to continue your office work ( beyond office hours ) , in a 5 room office attached to your residence

Every single Chief Minister of India  has to do that  !

More than 50 years back , Dr Jivraj Mehta ( - the first Chief Minister of Gujarat ) , spent a night at my father's modest house in village Vadia

He had just one peon in his retinue ( - apart from his driver ) , who carried a heap of files inside the house

After dinner , he sat down cross-legged , on a bed laid out on the floor and answered questions of the villagers

When I got up next morning , I saw him going thru those files and making notes . My father later told me that the CM had started work at 4 am - still sitting cross-legged on the floor  !

Dr Jivraj Mehta did not have to declare his " Simplicity " to anyone  !

Then 3 years later , corrupt Congress MLAs of Gujarat , who could not stomach the honesty of Dr Mehta , got High Command to replace him  !

DEAR  ARVIND ,

You have many lessons to learn from history

Lesson  No ONE  is  :

>  Do not undertake / promise anything that you cannot sustain

>  Once you promise anything , don't go back on it


>  Always ask , " Will I be able to defend my position later ? "

>  TALK  LESS  /  WORK  MORE

*    hemen   parekh  (  04  Jan  2014  /  Mumbai  )

A Black Swan ?

Will the 2014 national elections throw up a " Black Swan " event  ?

Nassim Taleb ( author of " Black Swan "  ) , describes a Black Swan event as follows :

>  It is an " OUTLIER ", as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations ,

    because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility

>  It carries an " EXTREME  IMPACT "

>  In spite of its outlier status , human nature makes us concoct  

     " EXPLANATION " for its occurrence , after the fact , making it

     explainable and  PREDICTABLE

   

In brief ,

>   Rarity

>   Extreme Impact

>   Retrospective Predictability

According to Taleb ,

>   The highly expected  " not happening ",  is also a Black Swan

Example of Black Swan  ?

>  Kumar Vishwas ( AAP ) contesting Amethi Lok Sabha seat against Rahul

    Gandhi in 2014 - and defeating him  !

Here is why  :

>   Amethi Lok Sabha seat is kind of " Reserved " for the Gandhi Family for

     past many decades . To save face , no other political party fields any

    heavy-weight candidate from Amethi  (  RARITY  )

>   A Kumar Vishwas contesting Rahul Gandhi will encourage , hundreds

     of Aam Aadmi Davids to take on mighty Congress / BJP Goliaths , in

     their respective constituencies . All the Congress / BJP stalwarts lose

    their deposits ! ( EXTREME  IMPACT  )

>   What makes Kumar Vishwas victory over Rahul , so PREDICTABLE  ?

     Simple

     *  People don't want " more of the same " for another 5 years .

        ( viz : Dynasty Rule )

     *  People want a change

     *  People believe , AAP will eliminate corruption

     *  People think AAP will work for the benefit of the poor

     *  People have seen what AAP government delivered within 48 hours

         of assuming power in Delhi

     *  BJP / Congress leaders will neither read this blog nor read " Black

         Swan  " !

No doubt , experts debating election results on TV channels , in June 2014

( after the fact ) , will concoct many other " Explanations " to justify the

occurrence of this Black Swan  !

*   hemen   parekh   (  03  Jan  2014  /  Mumbai )

   

Robinhood of Delhi ?

All of last evening , experts were debating on TV channels ,

"  Is Kejriwal robbing Peter ( rich ) to pay Paul ( poor )   ?  "

They were discussing the losses that Delhi treasury will suffer ( approx Rs 25-35 Crores per month ) due to ,

>  20 KL 0f free water

>  50 % subsidy on power ( up to 400 units / month )

But AAP leaders are saying ,

" If Peter is rich and Paul is poor , then there is nothing wrong with robbing Peter to pay Paul  "

What they are leaving unsaid is ,

"  It is better to be a Robinhood  than to be a Robbing Hoodlum  !

  Robbing Hoodlums of Congress governments have been robbing the poor for the   past 66 years and making the rich  richer,  and poor  poorer  !

Dear Experts ,

 Will you please explain ,

>  Who got Rs 50,00000 Crores worth of Scam money in last 15 years  ?

>  Who have deposited Rs 300,000 Crores worth of black money in Swiss banks ?

>   Which Industrialists / Businessmen have failed to return to the Nationalized Banks , Rs 200,000 Crores of loans - without any efforts at recovering the same  ?

>   Which private money-lenders are making 20,000 farmers commit suicide every year , for failing to repay their small loans ?

>   Who are all travelling Air India on subsidized  air-fares , which has bled the Government of Rs 100,000 Crores in past 15 years ?

>   To which businessmen have State and Central governments gave away - almost free - Rs 500,000 Crores worth of farming land to set up SEZ  ?

>   How many sick ( ICU ? ) Public Sector Units have the poor people of India kept " alive " , by subsidizing them to the tune of Rs 100,000 ,000 Crores over the past 60 years ?

Who got this money  ?

And if you dispute our figures , will you tell us the correct figures  ?  "

But since these  " self-appointed economic experts "  have no honest answers to these questions , they are telling AAP government ,

"  You are not supposed to fulfill your poll promises by increasing the EXISTING levels of subsidy on water and power

If you have only a few hours to survive , within that period , why don't you ,

>  Lay 150 Km of water pipe lines  ?

>  Install 20 lakh new water meters / replace 10 lakh defective ones ?

>  Ditto for Electric meters

>  Get CAG to finish its audit of 3 Discoms ?

>  Get DERC to announce new tariff , revised downwards by 50 %  ?

>  Float tenders , finalize and appoint 6 Discoms ( to replace existing 3 ) ?

>  Study 200 files of CWG Scam tenders and file cases against corrupt government officers / contractors / politicians , who minted money  ?

Why can't you do these things by tomorrow evening  ?

Don't you know , extending existing subsidy % , is bad economics  , even if it is good politics ?

In any case , by precedence of past 60 years , bad economics has been solely our prerogative

How dare you copy us , then claim originality ?  "

AAP may choose not to answer

But by May / June 2014 , 760 million voters will

And depressed / tortured / raped / murdered / looted people around the World , will applaud an alternative to violent Arab Spring  !

Mahatma will rise from the Rajghat  !

*   hemen   parekh   (   02  Jan  2014  /  Mumbai  )

Congressmen are Confused !

AAP made a few poll promises - prominent being ,

>   700 Liters of free water per month

>   50 % subsidy in power bills

And people of Delhi elected them to power

Then within 48 hours of forming government , AAP fulfilled these promises

Total cost  ?

Less than Rs 40 Crores / month

Congressmen are asking themselves ,

"   We promised Rs 200 Cr / month of freebies - and got thrown out of Rajasthan / MP / Chhattisgarh

   

    What went wrong  ?

    The more we promise , the more we lose  !

    And , to win 2014 elections , we have promised 600 million poor people

    a monthly subsidy of Rs 8,000 Crores by way of Food Security Bill

    At this rate , what will happen to us  ?

    It seems , the more freebies you promise , the greater your chance of being thrown out of power 

    

    And look at what Rahul Gandhi has promised the people of Amethi  :

   >   A railway coach factory

   >   A University

   >   A paper mill

   >   40 food processing units

   >   Indian Institute of Information Technology

   >   Footwear Design and Development Institute

   >   IT hub in Tikarmafi

   >   A railway line  ..................etc

  But Kumar Vishwas (  AAP  candidate for Amethi ) is promising only ,

  >    A clean / corruption-free / pro-poor government

No more  !

With just 5 months before the 2014 elections , how can our would-be Prime Minister , withdraw those promises  ?

And , since the logic of " Less is More " seems to work , does that mean Kumar Vishwas will defeat Rahul Gandhi  ?   "

And Rahul Gandhi is asking Sheila Dikshit :

>  Why , in 15 years , you did not implement what Arvind Kejriwal did  ?

>  Why you did not ask CAG to conduct an audit of Discoms  ?

>  Why you did not hold Mohalla - Sabhas  to connect with Aam Aadmi  ?

>  Why you failed to figure out that people wanted toilets, not highways  ?

Now , all of you , repeat after me , and loudly please

>    Less is More

>    Simple is Elegant

>    Adarsh is not Ideal

>    Aam is not Ordinary

>    CAG is credible

>    Jhadu will sweep

>    Congress will weep

     

Sheila Dikshit , Chidambaram , Kapil Sibal , Salman Khurshid , Jairam Ramesh , Manish Tewari , Kamal Nath , Digvijay - and sundry other Netas , are utterly confused !

*   hemen   parekh   (  01  Jan  2014  /  Mumbai  )     

Overwhelming Demands ?

You bet  !

Looking at the crowds shouting their demands outside Arvind Kejriwal's residence , you would think , people of Delhi have unlimited arrears of problems

Individuals and groups are trooping in from far and wide , demanding :

>  Better physical services ( Power / Water / Homes / Transport )

>  Jobs ( Permanency / Removal of Contract System / New jobs )

>  Reservations / Abolitions / Implementations / Resignations

>  Admissions / Legalizations / Transfers

>  Roll back of CNG Prices / Reduction of Vegetable prices

>  Security / Loans / Pensions

The list goes on and on

Only problem

Whereas demands are " Unlimited " ,  resources ( Manpower + Money + Systems ) are " Limited "  !

Hence Arvind will need to evolve a simple method to evaluate the " IMPORTANCE " and the " URGENCY " of these demands

He may want to devise an online form  or , like last time , print and distribute 50 lakh forms , which only need to be ticked , as in a multiple choice questionnaire

Then , on a scale of 1- 5 , invite people of Delhi to score each demand on the following criteria :

How does this problem affect  ?

>  Economic Status ( Rich / Middle Class / Poor )

>  Geographic Coverage ( Posh Area / Middle class locality / Slums )

>  Gender ( Male / Female / Both )

>  Age  ( Old people / Middle Age  /  Children )

>  Coverage  ( Entire population / Majority / One Community only )

>  Nature  (  Political / Social / Economic )

>  Character  ( Establish Equity / Reduce Disparity / Speed up Justice )

>  Scope  ( Job Creation / Health / Education / Corruption Removal )

>  Time Frame  ( Crisis Situation / Urgent / Can wait  )

Then display the demands in the descending order of " PERCENTILE  SCORES  " - so people get to know what will get attended to and when

For AAP , with its inclination for seeking people's opinion through " STRUCTURED STATISTICAL SURVEYS " , devising such a transparent and easily understood " PROCESS  " , cannot be a big deal

Incidentally , no individual problem / demand should be included in the survey

Carrying out such a pilot ,  " SOCIO - ECONOMIC - POLITICAL " experiment can take our democracy to the grass-root level and give the people a sense of participation in solving their own problems

At the same time , people will be made aware that ,

>    Resources are limited

>    All demands cannot be attended simultaneously

>    Injustice of past 15 years cannot be undone in the next 15 days

*    hemen   parekh   (   31  Dec  2013  /  Mumbai  )