Referendum in Kashmir ?

Benito Mussolini is supposed to have said ,

"  If you plan to dig a well in the village , you can ask all the villagers , but if you have to declare a war , you have decide , all by yourself  "

That applies to Kashmir situation as well

And not only for the government of India but equally for the government of Pakistan

Neither the people nor the governments of either country would want the Kashmiri people to decide what they want

  

And the Kashmiri people know that either India or Pakistan or both would reject the verdict of Kashmir people !

Sad - but true  !

Equally sad is the fact that there is very little prospect of a " Peacefully    Negotiated " settlement

If there was one , we would have found it after 40 years of negotiations  !

Or , could it be that neither government is looking for one  ?

Could it be that , interests of numerous political parties on either side of the border are best served by keeping the Kashmir pot boiling  ?

Could that be the reason why ,

>  BJP is asking Man Mohan Singh to reveal what was the  " solution "

    that was almost within the reach , a few years back  ?

>  BJP , itself does not wish to divulge the " Kashmir Accord " reached

    between Atalji and Musharraf , during Agra Summit but could not be

    signed ?

>  Prashant Bhushan wants " involvement " of Kashmiri people in solving

    Kashmir issue  ?

>  Why no one dare talk about late Vasant Sathe's practical suggestion

    to convert  LoC  into an international border  ?

>  Militaries of both the countries  continue to justify purchase of billions

    rupees worth of military equipment , year after year , and without any

    audit / kick-back  scrutiny  ?

>   Arms - selling countries of the western world do not want India and

     Pakistan to settle this issue amicably  ?

>  China and America want India and Pakistan to divert billions of rupees to

    missile development , instead of strengthening their economies  ?

It is a pity that the Indian media - and India's  corrupt politicians - are jumping on Prashant Bhushan's throat , instead of raising above mentioned questions

We don't have to agree with Prashant . Just allow him to express his views

How many of us have the courage to tell the truth to our people  ?

*   hemen  parekh   (  08  Jan  2014  /  Mumbai  )

 

Lesson Number 3

Yesterday was a field day for TV channels

Panel experts were screaming :

>  Prashant Bhushan wants to hand over Kashmir to Pakistan

>  Rakhi Bidlan is a compulsive liar, who seeks cheap publicity by alleging

    terrorist attack on her car

>  Kumar Vishwas is hiding communal skeletons in his cupboard

>  Aam Aadmi Party is falling apart

>  AAP has no experience in governing

>  AAP has neither a Vision , nor a Policy on any national matter

>  In trying to contest Lok Sabha elections , AAP is biting off more than

    what it can chew

>  AAP has no clue about financing government expenditure . By subsidizing

    Water / Power etc , it will bankrupt the Delhi government

>  AAP is indulging in populist give-away with an eye on 2014

>  AAP is shying away from catching corrupt Congressmen

>  AAP is a B-Team of Congress / hand-in-glove with Congress / stooge of

    Congress

>  AAP ministers are practicing phony simplicity to fool people

Amidst a free-for-all  " VERBATHON " amongst the so-called experts and the vociferous / dominating TV anchors , these are a few comments I could catch  !

Now , don't blame the TV anchors

Their own annual salary-increase depends upon the TRP rating of the show !

But as far as the experts are concerned , they were engaged in a game of one-up-man ship !

Each was trying to prove that ,

>  he had more negative opinions about AAP

>  he could do a better job of provoking AAP leaders

>  he had , at his command , many more words to run down AAP

But thank God , Arvind and his team ,

>  readily admitted their shortcomings

>  apologized for their mistakes

>  refused to get drawn into a controversy

>  did not get provoked

A classic example of an elephant ignoring the barking of dogs  !

In short , they kept their COOL

DEAR  ARVIND  ,

Congrats  !

You did well in your lesson number 3 , viz ;

KEEP  COOL  /  KEEP  POLITE

*   hemen  parekh   ( 07  Jan  2014  /  Mumbai  )      

Lesson Number 2

Yesterday , Arvind Kejriwal declared ,

"  I will not contest Lok Sabha election but I will actively campaign all over India , for AAP candidates  "

No doubt , a wise decision

A decision to contest a Lok Sabha seat would have carried a dangerously detrimental message , viz: ,

"  For me , getting into Lok Sabha is more important than fulfilling my

    promises to people of Delhi  "

In which case , people of not only Delhi but of entire India , would have wondered ,

"  This person seems to be obsessed with ambition which exceeds the

    commitment he has made publicly - and repeatedly - only a few days

    back

    How can he be trusted  ?  "

For Arvind , a wiser decision would be to leave Lok Sabha campaigning to his colleagues

He must not leave Delhi for the next 6 months

Every day , he must ,

 >    make rounds of Delhi

>     personally assess if his officers are working hard to deliver on poll

       promises

>     tell people , what he has succeeded in implementing , what he is

       working on next , what is at planning stage. In short , present to

       people , his performance card

>     admit the honest mistakes that he - and his Cabinet colleagues - made

       and how they are learning to walk the tight rope of governance

>    tell people what can be done and what  CANNOT  be done - and why

      the limited resources cannot be stretched

Sure , it is exhilarating to see the people's response to AAP , from all over India

Sure , you would like to ride the wave of people's pent-up frustration against corruption , to get 50+ seats in Lok Sabha . Entirely possible

Sure , you would want to galvanize the people's anger against the shameless - and self-serving - politicians , to rewrite , THE NEW POLITICAL ORDER

But,

DEAR  ARVIND  ,

First completing current - and somewhat manageable - commitments  to the people of Delhi has to be your  ONLY PRIORITY

If you succeed , in the annals of modern India's history , it will merit a chapter titled ,

"  THE   DELHI   EXPERIMENT  "

And in World History , chapter on " ARAB  SPRING " will be followed by a chapter on " INDIAN  SUMMER - MAY 2014  "

Let this be your lesson no 2

*   hemen   parekh  (  06   Jan   2014   / Mumbai  )

An Unprecedented Opportunity

While winning confidence vote in Delhi Assembly on 2nd Jan , Arvind Kejriwal re-iterated 18 promises made by AAP to people of Delhi

One of this is ;

Open 500 new schools in 5 years

That is approx one new school every 4th day  !

I was reminded of BJP's promise to people of Gujarat in its poll manifesto released on 3rd Dec 2012 , before Gujarat Assembly elections

Viz:

If voted to power , we will build 50 lakh houses for the poor of Gujarat in 5 years

which translates to, 2,739 new houses EVERY DAY  !

By now , BJP Government should have built  10,27,125  houses  !

But no one - even opposition - is asking ,

" Where are these houses ? "

AAP may not be so lucky , with people of Delhi - and BJP MLAs - asking every 4th day ,

"  When can I send my child to the new school  ?  "

No doubt , AAP , before releasing the manifesto , must have figured out the resources required to build 500 new schools , viz : ,

>   Land  ............  2,500 acres

>   Money  ..........  Rs 5,000 Crores

>   Teachers ........  25,000

>   Annual salaries / Maintenance cost......... Rs 100 Crores

But in case , if at this stage , it appears doubtful to raise such resources , there is a way out  !

Unlike BJP in Gujarat , AAP in Delhi can build 5,00 ( or even 5,000 ) ,

VIRTUAL  SCHOOLS

And do this in 6 months , instead of in 5 years  !

And do this at 1 % of the cost of building physical schools  !

Now all that AAP need to do to impart online education to 3 lakh Delhi children , is :

>   Find 3 lakh donors , each of whom will sponsor ONE Delhi child , by

     donating Rs 2,000 / -

>   With this money , buy 3 lakh tablet computers ,( Aakash 4 specs ), which are pre-loaded

     with all the text books and other instructional materials

>   At a cost of Rs 10 crores , cover entire Delhi with Wi-Max internet .

     Google ( or Bill Gates ) would be happy to help out

>   Grant Rs 10 crores to IIT-Delhi , to create " VIRTUAL CLASSROOMS "

      for each and every subject ( 1st to 10th standards )

      Prof Rahul Deshmukh ( IIT-Mumbai ) who has created such an

      infrastructure for the engineering subjects , should be happy to help

>   Get Dr Sugata Mitra ( the " Hole-in-the-Wall " fame , Delhi educationist )

      to spearhead the entire project - the broad framework being available

      in the Cover Story ( Can Technology Educate Us ? ) of Digit magazine

      of March 2013

If anyone in AAP has lingering doubts re feasibility of such a project , just send him to look at what Subhash Rathod , Principal of a small school of Sanganwa ( 35 Km from Rajkot ) has managed to do , ( and without any government help ! ) , viz ;

>  Wi-Fi enabled campus

>  Smart Classrooms

>  Digital Teaching Aids

    ( using Rs 5 lakhs of insurance money that Rathod received after the

      death of his only son in a road accident in 2011 )

>  Tablet for every child

     (  cost borne by a local industrialist , Jayanti Patoliya )

>  Syllabus and study materials in Gujarati , using special software

>  No school bags  !

People of India expect AAP to innovate , not just in ushering a NEW POLITICAL SYSTEM , but also in EDUCATION SYSTEM  !

ARVIND ,

Don't miss this unprecedented opportunity  !

*   hemen   parekh   (  05  Jan   2014  /  Mumbai  )

Lesson Number One

For Arvind Kejriwal - and his team of ministers and MLAs - lesson number one is :

TALK  LESS   /  WORK  MORE

You did not have to declare ( from roof-top too ! ),

"  If elected , we will shun government bungalows / cars / servants etc  "

No one had asked you for proof of your simplicity

But you went ahead and did it on your own !

Now that you have placed yourself under the microscope , people of Delhi are asking :

"  Why is Arvind moving into a 10 room bungalow  ?

    Why has he accepted security from UP government  ?

    Why are AAP ministers using government cars ( - chauffer driven too )  ?

    What were you trying to achieve - except perhaps fool the public - by

    travelling in metro / auto / Wagon-R , for first 4 days  ?  "

People of Delhi think that ,

>   they have been taken for a ride ( - no doubt , on metro ! )

>   you have pulled a fast one on them

>   you have betrayed their trust

DEAR  ARVIND ,

There was no need for you to have made those lofty declarations

But for your failed attempt to project your simplicity as a virtue , no one would have bothered to wonder why you are moving from a 3 bedroom flat to a 5 bedroom flat

People may have even appreciated that you intend to continue your office work ( beyond office hours ) , in a 5 room office attached to your residence

Every single Chief Minister of India  has to do that  !

More than 50 years back , Dr Jivraj Mehta ( - the first Chief Minister of Gujarat ) , spent a night at my father's modest house in village Vadia

He had just one peon in his retinue ( - apart from his driver ) , who carried a heap of files inside the house

After dinner , he sat down cross-legged , on a bed laid out on the floor and answered questions of the villagers

When I got up next morning , I saw him going thru those files and making notes . My father later told me that the CM had started work at 4 am - still sitting cross-legged on the floor  !

Dr Jivraj Mehta did not have to declare his " Simplicity " to anyone  !

Then 3 years later , corrupt Congress MLAs of Gujarat , who could not stomach the honesty of Dr Mehta , got High Command to replace him  !

DEAR  ARVIND ,

You have many lessons to learn from history

Lesson  No ONE  is  :

>  Do not undertake / promise anything that you cannot sustain

>  Once you promise anything , don't go back on it


>  Always ask , " Will I be able to defend my position later ? "

>  TALK  LESS  /  WORK  MORE

*    hemen   parekh  (  04  Jan  2014  /  Mumbai  )

A Black Swan ?

Will the 2014 national elections throw up a " Black Swan " event  ?

Nassim Taleb ( author of " Black Swan "  ) , describes a Black Swan event as follows :

>  It is an " OUTLIER ", as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations ,

    because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility

>  It carries an " EXTREME  IMPACT "

>  In spite of its outlier status , human nature makes us concoct  

     " EXPLANATION " for its occurrence , after the fact , making it

     explainable and  PREDICTABLE

   

In brief ,

>   Rarity

>   Extreme Impact

>   Retrospective Predictability

According to Taleb ,

>   The highly expected  " not happening ",  is also a Black Swan

Example of Black Swan  ?

>  Kumar Vishwas ( AAP ) contesting Amethi Lok Sabha seat against Rahul

    Gandhi in 2014 - and defeating him  !

Here is why  :

>   Amethi Lok Sabha seat is kind of " Reserved " for the Gandhi Family for

     past many decades . To save face , no other political party fields any

    heavy-weight candidate from Amethi  (  RARITY  )

>   A Kumar Vishwas contesting Rahul Gandhi will encourage , hundreds

     of Aam Aadmi Davids to take on mighty Congress / BJP Goliaths , in

     their respective constituencies . All the Congress / BJP stalwarts lose

    their deposits ! ( EXTREME  IMPACT  )

>   What makes Kumar Vishwas victory over Rahul , so PREDICTABLE  ?

     Simple

     *  People don't want " more of the same " for another 5 years .

        ( viz : Dynasty Rule )

     *  People want a change

     *  People believe , AAP will eliminate corruption

     *  People think AAP will work for the benefit of the poor

     *  People have seen what AAP government delivered within 48 hours

         of assuming power in Delhi

     *  BJP / Congress leaders will neither read this blog nor read " Black

         Swan  " !

No doubt , experts debating election results on TV channels , in June 2014

( after the fact ) , will concoct many other " Explanations " to justify the

occurrence of this Black Swan  !

*   hemen   parekh   (  03  Jan  2014  /  Mumbai )

   

Robinhood of Delhi ?

All of last evening , experts were debating on TV channels ,

"  Is Kejriwal robbing Peter ( rich ) to pay Paul ( poor )   ?  "

They were discussing the losses that Delhi treasury will suffer ( approx Rs 25-35 Crores per month ) due to ,

>  20 KL 0f free water

>  50 % subsidy on power ( up to 400 units / month )

But AAP leaders are saying ,

" If Peter is rich and Paul is poor , then there is nothing wrong with robbing Peter to pay Paul  "

What they are leaving unsaid is ,

"  It is better to be a Robinhood  than to be a Robbing Hoodlum  !

  Robbing Hoodlums of Congress governments have been robbing the poor for the   past 66 years and making the rich  richer,  and poor  poorer  !

Dear Experts ,

 Will you please explain ,

>  Who got Rs 50,00000 Crores worth of Scam money in last 15 years  ?

>  Who have deposited Rs 300,000 Crores worth of black money in Swiss banks ?

>   Which Industrialists / Businessmen have failed to return to the Nationalized Banks , Rs 200,000 Crores of loans - without any efforts at recovering the same  ?

>   Which private money-lenders are making 20,000 farmers commit suicide every year , for failing to repay their small loans ?

>   Who are all travelling Air India on subsidized  air-fares , which has bled the Government of Rs 100,000 Crores in past 15 years ?

>   To which businessmen have State and Central governments gave away - almost free - Rs 500,000 Crores worth of farming land to set up SEZ  ?

>   How many sick ( ICU ? ) Public Sector Units have the poor people of India kept " alive " , by subsidizing them to the tune of Rs 100,000 ,000 Crores over the past 60 years ?

Who got this money  ?

And if you dispute our figures , will you tell us the correct figures  ?  "

But since these  " self-appointed economic experts "  have no honest answers to these questions , they are telling AAP government ,

"  You are not supposed to fulfill your poll promises by increasing the EXISTING levels of subsidy on water and power

If you have only a few hours to survive , within that period , why don't you ,

>  Lay 150 Km of water pipe lines  ?

>  Install 20 lakh new water meters / replace 10 lakh defective ones ?

>  Ditto for Electric meters

>  Get CAG to finish its audit of 3 Discoms ?

>  Get DERC to announce new tariff , revised downwards by 50 %  ?

>  Float tenders , finalize and appoint 6 Discoms ( to replace existing 3 ) ?

>  Study 200 files of CWG Scam tenders and file cases against corrupt government officers / contractors / politicians , who minted money  ?

Why can't you do these things by tomorrow evening  ?

Don't you know , extending existing subsidy % , is bad economics  , even if it is good politics ?

In any case , by precedence of past 60 years , bad economics has been solely our prerogative

How dare you copy us , then claim originality ?  "

AAP may choose not to answer

But by May / June 2014 , 760 million voters will

And depressed / tortured / raped / murdered / looted people around the World , will applaud an alternative to violent Arab Spring  !

Mahatma will rise from the Rajghat  !

*   hemen   parekh   (   02  Jan  2014  /  Mumbai  )