Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Thursday, 16 March 2017

Tony Seba stands vindicated !



In 2014, Tony Seba authored :





In this seminal work , he writes :


Page 13 / 14 :

Solar photovoltaic ( PV ) panels have a learning curve of 22 per cent . PV production costs have dropped 22 per cent with every doubling of of the infrastructure


By 2020, as the market for solar expands, solar will improve its cost basis relative to oil by 12,000 TIMES



Page 20 / 21 :

On a clear afternoon on May 25, 2012, solar in Germany generated 22 GW , which represented a THIRD of the entire country’s power needs

The following afternoon, solar generated fully 50 % of Germany’s power , breaking previous day’s world record

In Germany… solar energy drove German wholesale electricity costs DOWN by more than 40 % in 2013, compared with 2008

On November 3, 2013, WIND generated more than 100 % of the power demand in Denmark

Half way around the world, Australia has set a few world records of its own : ONE MILLION solar installations in about FOUR YEARS



Page 22  :

The installed capacity of solar photovoltaic around the world has grown from 1.4 GW in the year 2000 to 141 GW at the end of 2013 . This translates to a global Compound Annual Growth Rate ( CAGR ) of 43 %



Page 25  ;

In 1970, solar PV panels cost $ 100 per Watt . By 1973 it fell to $ 20 per watt

By 2013, the market price of PV panels was about 65 CENTS per Watt ( a factor of 154 since 1970 )



VINDICATION  :

Hindustan Times ( 16 March 2017 ) carries a news report titled :

Solar Module prices may fall 20 % this year


Sanjeev Aggarwal ( MD and CEO , Amplus Energy Solutions ) says ,

“ Prices ( of solar modules ) are likely to continue to fall and in the second half of this year, tier-1 module prices are likely to be between 27 – 30 CENTS ( per watt peak ) “


Deepak Agrawala ( Analyst , Elara Securities ) says,

“ While prices in China have fallen 11 – 13 % , those in South East Asia and Taiwan are down 17 – 20 % ; it is difficult to infer that this magnitude of decline may continue “


In India , installed solar power had crossed 9 GW as of December and is likely to DOUBLE to 18 GW in 2017


Modules make for nearly 60 % of a Solar Power Project’s total cost and their prices fell by about 26 % in 2016 alone


While China reported solar installations of about 34 GW in 2016, it is only likely to add about 28 GW in 2017 , putting downward pressure on prices


Module prices for tier-1 manufacturers are currently around 31-32 CENTS per watt peak ( Wp )


The report said :

Global demand is expected to be nearly stagnant in 2017 even as several large suppliers have announced significant expansions . We believe that 2017 is likely to end with prices in the range of 25-26 CENTS / Wp



HOW  SHOULD  INDIA  SEIZE  THIS  OPPORTUNITY  ?

Read :



16  March  2017




Wednesday, 15 March 2017

Plastic Skyscrapers ?



Skyscrapers made out of plastic waste ?


I believe it is only a matter of time when 3 D Printing Technology will solve two major problems of the World , viz:

·          Need to construct millions of houses ( some 30 million in India alone – by 2022 )


·          Need to reduce / eliminate, pollution caused by 300 million tons of Plastic Waste per year world-wide ( 5.5 million tons in India )


Over the past few months , 3D Printing of houses , has made considerable progress ( see blogs below )


But , so far , this method of construction has relied on building materials consisting of :

·          Old Construction Debris

·          Desert Sand

·          Debris from old Asphalt / Brickbat Roads

·           
And saves,

      *   30% -60 % of building materials


      *   70 % of production time


      *   80 %  of construction cost


Today’s Times of India ( 15 March 2017 ) carries following news :


A construction firm based in Dubai has announced plans to build the world’s first 3D-printed skyscraper.
The company, called Cazza, has confirmed that it will be erected in the United Arab Emirates.
It says it will use a new technique called  “ crane printing ”  to create the building.
When we first thought of implementing 3D printing technologies, we were mostly thinking of houses and low-rise buildings,” Cazza CEO Chris Kelsey told Construction Week Online

“Developers kept asking us if it was possible to build a 3D printed skyscraper. This led us to begin researching how we could adapt the technologies for taller structures.”
Cazza is yet to disclose the building’s planned height or any commencement or completion dates, but the Encyclopedia Britannica describes a skyscraper as a building “of unusual height, generally greater than 40 or 50 stories”. 

Concrete and steel will be two of the materials printed by the company’s cranes
“The crane printing system can be easily adopted with existing cranes which means we don’t have to build cranes from scratch,” said Fernando De Los Rios, Cazza’s chief operating officer.

“We are adding new features to make it adaptable to high wind speeds along with the use of our layer smoothing system that creates completely flat surfaces. You won’t know it’s 3D printed.”


Now imagine if Cazza succeeds in shredding BILLIONS of PLASTIC BOTTLES / CARTONS / WRAPPINGS / BAGS / TOYS etc , mix these with some RESIN to turn it into plastic concrete ( PLASTRETE ? ) and use it to 3 D print that skyscraper !
QUESTION :
Shall we wait till Cassa ( or the Chinese company , WinSun or the Russian company APIS COR ) , develops this technology , so that we may “ license “ it ?
How about throwing this as a challenge to our Start Ups / Scientists / Engineers ?
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------   
·         Building Castles  in  the  Air  ? ( 25  July  2015  )


·         A  Dream House  by  2020  ?  (  01  Sept  2015  )


·         A Quantum Jumpof 50 Million Houses ?  ( 13  Feb  2016 )


·         A  3 D  printed  Office  ( 27  May  2016  )


·         A Good  Policy :  Devil  is  in  details  ( 10  Dec  2016  )


·         Future Home  is  Here  ( 02  March  2017 )


15  March  2015


Tuesday, 14 March 2017

Are we really serious ?



Economic Times ( 14 March 2017 ) carries following news :



Start-ups may get Rs 5 crore Boost


DIPP’s Credit Scheme for New Ventures

According to the scheme, the loan will be provided without any collateral

Govt to guarantee corpus of fund

Scheme to help flow of venture debt from banks

To give 80 % risk cover for collateral-free credit

Feedback taken from Start-ups , VCs, Angel Investors

Start ups must meet the criteria defined for them by the department to access any benefit announced in the START UP INDIA ACTION PLAN last year , including loans under the Credit Guarantee Scheme




No doubt , you have read the " CRITERIA of a START UP " in the " Start Up Action Plan Document "


For the benefit of the readers , I have tried to list these  below :


*   Is yours a Private Ltd Co / LLP / Partnership  ?...........................................  Yes  /  No


*   Is your Company more than 5 years old ?....................................................Yes  /  No


*   Is your Start Up formed by splitting an existing business ?............................ Yes  /  No


*   In last 5 yrs, has your turnover exceeded Rs 25 Crores ?.............................  Yes  /  No


*   Is your product/service " DIFFERENTIATED "  ?............................................ Yes  /  No


*   Is your product / service " COMMERCIAL "  ?............................................... Yes  /  No


*  Is your product / service " INNOVATIVE "  ?................................................  Yes  /  No


*  Is your product / service driven by ,
    " TECHNOLOGY  / INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY "  ? ............................................YesNo


*  Is your product/service ,
   " NEW / SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED "  version "  ?.................... ...................... Yes / No

  
*  Does your product/service add " VALUE " to customers  ?................................ Yes / No


*  Does your product/service add " VALUE " to " WORKFLOW " ?.........................   Yes / No



*  Have you got CERTIFICATION  from Inter-Ministerial Board ?................................  Yes /  No


*  Have you got RECOMMENDATION from Incubator in Post Grad Indian College ?....... Yes / No



After a passage of two years , of the 200 Start Ups which applied for the tax exemption , only 10 start ups have qualified !


No prize for guessing how many will manage to get that loan of Rs 5 crore !


Government has provided Rs 500 crore per year – to help out 100 start ups ( @ Rs 5 cr each )


With the prescribed CRITERIA , only those 10 Start Ups will qualify to get the loans !


I wonder if we are really serious about this Start Up initiative


During his forthcoming visit to Israel , Shri Narendra Modiji , will find out that , in 2016 alone , Israeli Start Ups received VC funding to the tune of $ 4.8 billion ( approx. Rs 33,000 Cr )


In his VICTORY ACCEPTANCE SPEECH, two days back , Shri Modiji spoke of the birth of NEW INDIA


NEW INDIA “ can learn a lesson or two from :




15  March  2017



How Cheap can it get ?



If you ask Tony Seba , how cheap can Solar power get , he would say :


Interest rate of the capital investment in a Solar Power plant


His reasoning :


·          There is no fuel cost ( sunlight is free )

·          Very little maintenance cost ( occasional washing of the panels )

·          No transmission costs ( if it is a roof-top plant )



In his book ( Clean Disruption ) , he writes :


·          Solar panel costs have dropped from $ 100/W in 1970 to $ 0.65 / W in 2013....Every time industry capacity doubles, costs drop by 22 per cent


·          Should solar PV continue to grow at 43 per cent annual clip, the solar capacity installed base will be 56.7 TW by 2030


·          The cost of fuel ( the Sun ) is zero . The on going costs of operations and maintenance ( O&M ) are close to zero


·          CONSEQUENTLY, THE COST OF BORROWING THE CAPITAL ( THE INTEREST RATE ) CONSTITUTES MOST OF WHAT A SOLAR USER PAYS FOR SOLAR ENERGY


·          For Lancaster ( a county in USA ) , the cost of Solar Power ( cents per kwh ) was 7 cents at interest rate of 10 % ( on capital employed ) . It dropped to 3.5 cents per kwh , when interest rate dropped to 1 % "



·          SO , IT IS CLEAR THAT THE " TRICK " LIES IN BRINGING DOWN THE INTEREST RATE FOR SOLAR POWER PLANTS, TO 1 %  OR LESS !
           


So , how cheap can Solar Power get if the interest rate drops to 0.25 % ?


Could it possibly drop to 1 CENT ( 68 paise ) per kwh ?  Only time will tell


But here is the good news ( Business Line / 15 March 2017 ) :


“ The World Bank has agreed to provide loan to develop internal transmission arrangements of the upcoming Rewa Ultra Mega Solar project in Madhya Pradesh, a state government official said on Tuesday.
“The World Bank has agreed to provide loan to develop internal transmission arrangements of the Rewa project. It will provide 25 per cent of the loan amount under its Clean Technology Fund , where the money will be provided at an interest rate of only 0.25 per cent,” a state Public Relations Department official said.
This would be the first solar power project of the country to receive a loan under CTF, official said.


To understand how Solar Power will disrupt fossil fuel power ( coal / oil / gas ) and the transport ( petrol / diesel cars ) , read :

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As far as the Solar Power’s potential for generation of JOBS is concerned , I request you to look up :


15  March  2017