Thursday, 16 March 2017

Tony Seba stands vindicated !



In 2014, Tony Seba authored :





In this seminal work , he writes :


Page 13 / 14 :

Solar photovoltaic ( PV ) panels have a learning curve of 22 per cent . PV production costs have dropped 22 per cent with every doubling of of the infrastructure


By 2020, as the market for solar expands, solar will improve its cost basis relative to oil by 12,000 TIMES



Page 20 / 21 :

On a clear afternoon on May 25, 2012, solar in Germany generated 22 GW , which represented a THIRD of the entire country’s power needs

The following afternoon, solar generated fully 50 % of Germany’s power , breaking previous day’s world record

In Germany… solar energy drove German wholesale electricity costs DOWN by more than 40 % in 2013, compared with 2008

On November 3, 2013, WIND generated more than 100 % of the power demand in Denmark

Half way around the world, Australia has set a few world records of its own : ONE MILLION solar installations in about FOUR YEARS



Page 22  :

The installed capacity of solar photovoltaic around the world has grown from 1.4 GW in the year 2000 to 141 GW at the end of 2013 . This translates to a global Compound Annual Growth Rate ( CAGR ) of 43 %



Page 25  ;

In 1970, solar PV panels cost $ 100 per Watt . By 1973 it fell to $ 20 per watt

By 2013, the market price of PV panels was about 65 CENTS per Watt ( a factor of 154 since 1970 )



VINDICATION  :

Hindustan Times ( 16 March 2017 ) carries a news report titled :

Solar Module prices may fall 20 % this year


Sanjeev Aggarwal ( MD and CEO , Amplus Energy Solutions ) says ,

“ Prices ( of solar modules ) are likely to continue to fall and in the second half of this year, tier-1 module prices are likely to be between 27 – 30 CENTS ( per watt peak ) “


Deepak Agrawala ( Analyst , Elara Securities ) says,

“ While prices in China have fallen 11 – 13 % , those in South East Asia and Taiwan are down 17 – 20 % ; it is difficult to infer that this magnitude of decline may continue “


In India , installed solar power had crossed 9 GW as of December and is likely to DOUBLE to 18 GW in 2017


Modules make for nearly 60 % of a Solar Power Project’s total cost and their prices fell by about 26 % in 2016 alone


While China reported solar installations of about 34 GW in 2016, it is only likely to add about 28 GW in 2017 , putting downward pressure on prices


Module prices for tier-1 manufacturers are currently around 31-32 CENTS per watt peak ( Wp )


The report said :

Global demand is expected to be nearly stagnant in 2017 even as several large suppliers have announced significant expansions . We believe that 2017 is likely to end with prices in the range of 25-26 CENTS / Wp



HOW  SHOULD  INDIA  SEIZE  THIS  OPPORTUNITY  ?

Read :



16  March  2017




No comments:

Post a Comment