Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Saturday, 25 May 2019

What got achieved ?


What  got  achieved  ?


Today’s Times of India carries following news :



Highlights of Estimated Investment in 5 years ( Rs Lakh * crore ) :

#  Transport  …………………………….. 30

#   Energy  ………………………………….20

#   Urban Infra and Housing …….. 12

#   Health  …………………………………   10

#   Defense  ……………………………..    9

#   Digital   …………………………………   7

#   Agriculture …………………………….  5

#   Mining and Metals  ……………….. 5

#   Education ……………………………..  1

#   Tourism  ……………………………..    1

============================

Total  ………………………………………….. 100

===========================

Key Areas :

#   High Speed Rail Corridors………… 10

#   Rivers to be interlinked …………… 37

#   Ports under Sagarmala……………  605

#   Plants to extract Biomass………. 5,000

#   Houses to get Subsidy …………… 2 CR

================================

Key Concerns :


[ A  ]

    Preparing “ Investment Estimates “ was never any serious problem for us

    5 years ago ( on 07 April 2014 ), I had made following estimates ,using BJP Manifesto of

    2014 (  Don't Ask " How " ?  )  :

   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PROJECT   .................................... Approx Cost ( Rs Lakh * Crores  )
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

#  100 Mega Cities........................   90

#  Interlinking of Rivers..................  60

#  Sagar Mala of Ports....................  30

#  Highways ( 25,000 Km )..............  50

#  Housing ( 100 mill units )............   100

#  Rivers Cleaning..........................   10

#  Other Infra Projects....................    100

   * Freight Corridors

   * Gas Grids

   * OFC Network


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total ..........................................Rs  430  Lakh Crores
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 [  B  ]

 In the current “ Sankalp Patra ( new name for Manifesto ) “ of BJP, there is no mention of precisely WHAT / HOW MUCH got actually achieved ( - a kind of REPORT CARD ) against whatever “ Physical  Targets “ were set in 2014, - and using HOW MUCH investment !

Simple Summary of Sankalp



[  C  ]

How are those funds going to be mobilized , considering that :

#   For the past 2 years, Private Investment has dried up

#   Govt is seriously considering reduction in Personal and Corporate Income Tax

#   Banks / Financial Institutions are plagued by huge NPAs and unwilling to give loans

#   Many bankers are under investigations and more are expecting !


To me, getting BLACK MONEY to get into PRODUCTIVE ASSETS , through AMNESTY SCHEME ( along the lines of Indonesia which last year managed to raise $ 342 Billion through such a Scheme ), seems the only way out !


Dear Narendrabhai :


Even RAMAYANA and MAHABHARAT are having incidences where Lord Rama / Krishna had to resort to ( apparently unethical ) MEANS in order to achieve ultimate GOOD !




=================================================

25  May  2019

hcp@RecruitGuru.com

Friday, 24 May 2019

40 GW : 70 GW : 300 GW : 800 GW


40 GW  :  70  GW  :  300 GW  :  800  GW






Highlights :


#     The government is considering a plan to establish battery making capacity of 40
       gigawatts (GW) 


#   Even for just FAME II EV targets, we will require 70 GW batteries in the next 3 years


#   With plans to add 175 GW of renewable energy generation capacity by 2022 and ensure
     that 30 % of India’s vehicles are electrically powered by 2030, the demand for battery
     storage is pegged at 300 GW


#   There will be 4 plants ( in 4 selected states ) of 10 GW capacity each ( totaling 40 GW )


#   Each 10 GW plant is expected to cost $ 10 Billion ( total of $ 40 Billion for 4 plants )


#   The Centre is exploring the opportunities on how to make battery manufacturing at
     giga-scale happen quickly and in the shortest possible time because that is the crux of
     the entire growth , be it Electric Vehicles or new and renewable energy sources



=====================================================


This is a very welcome initiative on the part of NITI Aayog



But I have following questions / concerns / reservations :



#   4 States are to be selected on the basis of the “ incentives “ that they will offer for
     setting up this project in their territory. 


If left “ open-ended “, this could well result into
     a quagmire of “ permutations / combinations “ , demanding comparison of Apples with
    Oranges

There will be un-ending disputes re “ arbitrary and non-transparent “ selection
    process and references to Rafale deal ! 


These disputes will take months to resolve !



    It will be better if NITI Aayog prescribes a set of incentives with “ Minimum Cut off Limit “
    for each incentive , below which a State’s offer will be rejected


    Chosen states should be expected to enter into an MOU , under which they undertake to
    complete each activity ( Hand-over of land / Connecting the Power – Water  Supply /
    Issue of Construction Permissions / Exemption from labour laws / Exemption from
    Environment Pollution Act etc ) by specific dates
 
   

#   Private companies ( whether Domestic or Foreign ) bidding for the projects, must submit
     a PERT chart for the implementation of the project, and clearly list the “ Assumptions “
     that they have made in the preparation of the PERT chart


No bid should be considered
     without this



#  Bidding parties MUST clearly spell out in their bids , how much of the required FUNDS
    they will raise from each SOURCE


    This is a very crucial factor while selecting a party , considering that Banks / Financial
    Institutions / Equity Market , are all extremely reluctant to finance any Lithium-ion
    Battery Project since Battery selling prices are continuously falling by as much as 19 %
    per year !



   {  Projections :  2017 > $ 240/Kwh  //  2025  >  $ 109 / Kwh  //  2030  > $ 73 / Kwh  }



    This puts tremendous pressure on the revenue / profit stream !



#  If, neither the Private Sector has the money ( Rs 80,000 Cr per year , for 10 years in row
    ! ), nor is NDA 2.0, likely to find Foreign Investors to pump in such huge amounts by way
    of FDI  , then what is the solution ?




    As far as I can see, the only way to raise such huge amounts of LOW RISK ( - and LOW
   RETURN ) funds in a QUICK WAY, is concept of :




    Government to launch “ Battery Infra SPV “


·         Under Indonesia type “ Black Money Amnesty Scheme “ enable stashed away Black Money to come out in the official banking channel ( through deposits made in “ INFRA ACCOUNTS “ – like Jan Dhan Accounts ) . Remember , Indonesia managed to raise $ 342 Billions !



           Read :




·         Such converted ( Black to White ) monies can only be invested in “ Battery Infra SPV “



Hoping for any other way to raise such HUGE amounts of “ Risk Free “  and  “  Interest Free “ funds , in such a short time , would only amount to  WISHFUL  THINKING  !



I hope someone has the courage to tell the public this terrible TRUTH !


It is time to forget all that senile talk of an AMNESTY SCHEME rewarding the dishonest tax-evaders and punishing the honest / middle class tax payers !



It is time to tell the people : If we want to eliminate air pollution and save 600,000 premature deaths per year , thenMeans are unimportant ;  Ends are  !

          

Releted Reading :

Mobility on the Move – Finally  ……………………….[ 09  March  2019 ]

India : Energy Storage Mission ……………………….[  04  Dec  2017  ]








Tuesday, 23 April 2019

Who needs Fulfillment Centres [ FC ] ? Not Reliance Retail




Akhil Saxena, VP-Customer Fulfillment, Amazon India , says  :


“ We have more than 50 fulfillment centres across 13 States, with a combined storage space  close to 20 million cubic feet


We closed 2018, with  a 1.5 times growth in storage capacity from the previous year


Our fulfillment centre presence in India has grown from one in Bhiwandi when we launched Amazon.in , in June 2013 to 50 such buildings in the past 5 years “




For those 50 FC , this could translate into ,on an average of  400,000 sq ft floor-space area


Now , each such FC might have a “ Civil / Electrical Construction Cost “ of , an average of Rs 2,000 / sq ft


And, very likely, another Rs 2000 / sq ft for internal stacking arrangements / fork-lift trucks etc , taking the total cost to Rs 4,000 per sq ft


Rs 160 Cr for each of those FC ( Rs 4000 / sq ft x 400,000 sq ft )



Rs 8,000 Cr for those 50 FC


====================


But Reliance Retail thinks :

“ If we follow the rules of Amazon , then to cover entire India , we may need to construct / equip , may be , 100 FCs , costing Rs 16,000 Crore



And these may be 20 Km away from a customer ordering an item online




Why not treat each of the 4 MILLION Kirana shops , spread across the country as our FC ?


Each of these Kirana shop is , on an average , 20 ft x 20 ft ( =  400 sq ft  of floor space )


So , I get 400 sq ft ( per store ) x 4 Million stores = 1600 million sq ft of storage floor-space  - as against 20 million sq ft of floor space of Amazon’s 50 FC !



80 times of what Amazon has built , and without spending one rupee !




And, Reliance Retail tells those 4 Million Kirana store owners :



Dear Modiji

( in Gujarat, a Kirana Store owner is known as a “ Modi “ ) ,



#   I will arrange to deliver all of your SKU , directly from manufacturers, and on “ consignment basis “, so you do
     not need to pay anything



     No need for you to register as “ B2B bulk Buyer “ on  Amazon Business “ Business-to-Business online
    Marketplace



#   My system will relieve you of “ Inventory Carrying Cost “. That means, no blocking funds in working
    capital . Remember, for storing your goods in  Amazon FC , you pay a hefty “ Inventory Cost “



#   My delivery persons ( - and, someday soon , DRONES ), will pick up goods from your store . So, you need not
     pay any “ Delivery  Charges “ – as demanded by Amazon when you store your goods in its FC




#   Our hardware/software installed at your premises will take care of all GST formalities ( mentioning your GST
     number on invoices / charging GST amount / filing GST return etc ) . No need to worry on this count !




#   Even if your SKUs are only “ Food /  Grocery Items “, you don’t need to go to Amazon Retail India .


    Our Reliance Retail platform is designed to cater to such “ Roadside-Footpath Sellers



     Our platform will also cater to anyone  operating from his / her home !


 
     This “ Reliance Jio GigaFibre “ based technology will enable millions of  “ Unemployed “ to become “ Self
     Employed “ 

  
   

    [ for full strategy, refer : MA = DA x 4,000,000 ?    ]

 

Related readings :

Weave a Wondrous World [ W3 ]  

Bypass E : Go from D to F 

Jio Hubs : Entrepreneurs Apply  

Re-defining Retail : Maini and Mukesh  

 

====================================================================================================

24  April   2019

Rsvp :  hcp@RecruitGuru.com