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For all interested in manufacturing of Electric Vehicles in India , this is an
excellent document
NITI Aayog deserve
congratulations for this authoritative paper
Among many statistical projections and conclusions , this
report says :
·
India would require a minimum of 20 GIGA FACTORIES by 2030 ( for 800 Gwh capacity )
[ 40 Gwh per factory ]
If we assume that some industry ( Reliance / JSW / Suzuki –DENSO /
M&M etc ) manages to put up the very first such Giga factory in 2020 , then , this would require at least TWO giga-factories to be commissioned EVERY YEAR for the
next 10 YEARS ( 2020 till 2030 )
FOR
REFERENCE :
TESLA’s Giga-factory has a capacity of 35 Gwh and expected to cost $ 5 Billion ( apprx. Rs 35,000 Cr )
So , a 40 Gwh factory might cost , approx. Rs 40,000 cr
That means , we need an investment of Rs 80,000 Cr per year ( for 2 factories ) , for 10 years in row !
QUESTIONS
:
·
Which private sector companies would come forward with such HUGE investments –
especially when private sector investments have literally dried up during past 2 years
?
·
Which bank ( private or public ) would come forward with funding of
these giga-factories, even as it is struggling to take big “ hair cuts “ on its existing NPA ?
·
Which company-director (
inside or outside ) would dare to go to the market for funds – when Li-ion
Battery prices are DROPPING
by an ave of 19 % per year
?
{ Projections : 2017 > $ 240/Kwh //
2025 > $ 109 / Kwh
// 2030 > $ 73 / Kwh }
LARGER PICTURE :
·
As per Report , for 100 % domestic manufacture of batteries, India
would require,
# 3,500 Gwh of Lithium-ion
Batteries
#
That would require an investment of $ 300 Billion [ Rs 20 Lakh*Crore ]
MY TAKE :
·
Government has neither the
money , nor the expertise for setting up Giga factories
·
Private Sector would not want to take on such hugely “ Risky “ ventures
·
Banks want to play “ Safe “ while lending in
light of many adverse negative developments
WHAT IS
THE WAY OUT :
·
Government to launch “ Battery Infra SPV “
·
Under Indonesia
type “ Black Money Amnesty
Scheme “ enable stashed away Black Money to come out in the official
banking channel ( through deposits made in “ INFRA
ACCOUNTS “ – like Jan Dhan Accounts ) . Remember , Indonesia managed to
raise $ 342 Billions !
Read :
·
Such converted ( Black to
White ) monies can only be
invested in “ Battery Infra SPV “
Hoping for any
other way to raise such HUGE
amounts of “ Risk Free
“ and
“ Interest Free “ funds , in such a short time ,
would only amount to WISHFUL THINKING
!
I hope someone has the courage to tell the public this terrible TRUTH !
It is time to forget all that senile talk of an AMNESTY SCHEME rewarding
the dishonest tax-evaders and punishing the honest / middle class tax payers !
It is time to tell the people : If we want to eliminate air
pollution and save 600,000 premature deaths per year , then Means are unimportant ; Ends are !
05 Dec 2017
www.hemenparekh.in
/ blogs
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