Vaccine Policy : Supreme Court elaborates

 

 

Dear Hon Supreme Court,

 

Over the past one year, I have sent several suggestions ( E Mails ) re COVID VACCINATION , to Cabinet Ministers / NITI Aayog / Drug Controller General of India, State Chief Ministers,  etc

I write to thank you for asking Central Govt / State Govts, to examine the feasibility of implementing some of these suggestions ( reproduced below )

It is heartening that your Honors took trouble to elaborate my suggestions , during yesterday’s hearing

Thanking you once again,

With regards,

Hemen Parekh  / hcp@RecruitGuru.com /  03 June 2021

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ELABORATE ON WHAT ?

On my suggestions sent through following earlier E Mails :

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Ø  Rationing of Covid Vaccine ? ……………….[ 06 July 2020 ]

 

Suggestions re PRIORITY / DISTRIBUTION CONTROL :

Ø  Who are those “ most in need “ ?

Ø  How to determine these priorities , scientifically / un-biasedly , for 700 million people ?

Ø  Why should we compile such data for all Indians ( suffering from Covid or not ) ?

Ø  What else should the Government do ensure that there is no “ black marketing “ of the limited supplies of the vaccine ?

Ø  For vaccine, each bottle / vial, besides carrying Batch Number, must carry UNIQUE bottle number / vial number . Vaccine Manufacturer will record which bottle got dispatched to which drug store / when. Data will get automatically transmitted to Govt’s Central Server

 

Ø  Pharmacy Stores to maintain Computerized Record of who ( which person ) was sold a given “ Vial Number “ . This data will get automatically transmitted to Govt’s Central Server

 

Ø  No vial to be sold to anyone unless a Mobile App ( VaccineVend  ? ) clearly displays that person’s priority  ( as determined by AI ) , as HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW . No person without such Mobile App will be sold the vaccine

 

Ø  Chemist will enter sale-details in customer / buyer’s Mobile App , which will get automatically transmitted to Govt’s Central Server

 

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Ø  A Nightmare come true ? ……………………[ 18 Sept 2020 ]

 

Suggestions re DISTRIBUTION PROCESS ( Domestic and Export ) :

 

But, nothing stops Central Government from announcing the following RULES for the Indian Vaccine Manufacturers :

Ø  You will email ( to DCGI – Drug Controller General of India / ICMR and the Commerce Ministry ), your weekly / monthly, production / sales figures ( including any vaccines imported in bulk for re-packaging or as vials )

Ø  You can locally sell vaccine, only to the Central and State Governments (- their notified agencies ) under BULK PURCHASE CONTRACTS

Ø  In any given month, you will be allowed to EXPORT, 20 % of the dozes that you have actually “delivered “to local governments during the preceding month. For such exports, you will need to apply – and obtain from the Commerce Ministry – an EXPORT LICENCE ( If you have delivered 10 lakh dozes locally in Nov 2020 , you will be issued an export license for exporting 2 lakh dozes in Dec 2020 )

Ø  To get an Export License, you will need to mention the DESTINATION PORTS ( countries to which exporting ). Commerce Ministry will want to ascertain that you are going to export to “ COVID affected POOR countries “ – and not to RICH countries

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Ø  Thank You, Adar Poonawala …………………….[ 26 Sept 2020 ]

 

Suggestion re Central Govt’s FUNDS AVAILABILITY :

Ø  How much “ economic activity “ could we possibly lose if we lose ONE DAY worth of GDP due to 10 crore ( non-vaccinated ) persons getting infected and become “ non-productive “ for 14 days of quarantine ?

Ø  In 2019, our GDP was $ 2875 billion = $ 7.9 billion per day( for 365 days )

Ø  That amounts to Rs 55,137 Cr per day !

Ø  Hence, we can recover those Rs 80,000 crore in less than 2 days of full economic activity !

Here is another way to justify spending Rs 80,000 crore

I am not an economist but do the following calculations make any sense ?

Ø  Assume that, out of 100 crore citizen ( to be vaccinated ), only 55 crore persons were “ GDP Producer “ ( employed + self employed )

Ø  These 55 crore persons produce Rs 55,137 Cr of GDP per day ( Rs 1,137 per day per person )

Ø  Due to “non-vaccination / Covid infection “, 10 crore persons remained “ non-productive “ for 14 days each ( = 140 crore man-days loss )

Ø  Hence, total GDP loss = Rs 1137 / day  x 140 cr man-days = Rs 159,180 Crore = twice of Rs 80,000 crore to be allotted by the Government !

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Ø  Voting and Vaccination : Compare and Contrast ………………[ 18 Oct 2020 ]

 

Suggestion re VACCINATION PROCESS :

Ø  Persons who find it difficult to fill in this Registration Data into mobile app ( for whatever reason – including, not having a Smart phone ), may take help from the nearest,

     #   CSC ( Common Service Centre ) 

     #   Post Office 

     #   Aadhar Registration Centers

     #   Nursing Home / Hospital / Lab or even any nearby Doctor,

 -       all of who will be requested to help the hapless citizen concerned ( they

         may use desktop to submit registration data on central server

         of Ayushman Bharat website )

       

Ø  Based on the  “ Registration Data “ submitted, the Central Server ( of Aushman Bharat ) will issue a UNIQUE PRIORITY NUMBER to the person ( by SMS on mobile ) .

Ø  The message will also assign a specific “  “ Vaccine Delivery Centre – VDC “ ( a nearby Hospital – Nursing Home – Lab – Doctor )

Ø  Server will, simultaneously send notification to that particular VDC , providing full registration details of the concerned citizen – indicating his PRIORITY

Ø  Based on the “ Number of Citizen “ assigned – and the PRIORITY of each such citizen, software installed will send an SMS to the citizens , assigning SPECIFIC DATE / TIME to each person for visit .

Ø  This automatic / rule-based “ SCHEDULING “ by the software, will ensure “ No crowding / maintenance of Social Distancing “

Ø   Concerned VDC will fill in details such as : Vaccinated on ( …..  ) /  Did not turn up

     (  This will alert health worker to visit residence of person for follow-up /

         reschedule visit )

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Ø  Vaccine : a Case of Missing Data……………………………[ 09 Apr 2021 ]

 

Suggestions re PUBLISHING OF VACCINE DISTRIBUTION DATA :

Ø  What prevents the Ministry to publish such eye-opening ANALYSIS on www.Cowin.gov.in  portal ?

Ø  It ( analysis / publishing ) can be done by some SOFTWARE, without human intervention

Ø  Analyzing / Publishing can be DAILY and AUTOMATIC, from data flowing in from all VDC ( Vaccine Delivery Centres ) / Govt Agency releasing orders / schedules / Vaccine Suppliers – Transporters – Recipients etc) 

Ø  Based on EXTRAPOLATION ( Weighed Averages modified by TREND ANALYSIS ), that software can even PREDICT the number of dozed that will be needed by each and every VDC for the next 7 days and accordingly issue to the Vaccine Manufacturers, precise DELIVERY SCHEDULES ( no humans )

Ø  These DELIVERY SCHEDULES themselves must be clearly viewable on COWIN portal, for each and every VDC and totaled for each and every State

Ø  The analysis must also display the “ No of dozes wasted “ due to expiry and other reasons

Ø  Cowin website must also show, for each and every VDC ( Date / Month wise ), a tabulation as follows :

      #  Date

      #  Opening Stock

      #  Receipt during the day ( linked with Consignment Details )

     #  Consumed during the day

     #  Closing Stock 

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Ø  Accelerating Learning / Improvising / Course-correcting …[ 18 May 2021 ]

 

Suggestion re: HOW TO PREDICT, where / when / who,  THIRD WAVE will strike ?

 

Dear Dr HarshVardhanji,

I hope , someday soon, you will :

Ø  Modify the CoWIN platform to collect / compile data as suggested above

Ø  Introduce some very powerful INCENTIVE to motivate citizens to come forward and voluntarily submit such DATA about themselves

Ø  Since such data compilation is far more important ( for saving millions of lives that the THIRD WAVE might claim ), I strongly URGE the Union Cabinet to MODIFY ( re : about to begin, massive exercises ) the DATA COLLECTION FORMATS of :

       #   CENSUS-21 

       #   NPR  ( National Population Register )

       #   CAA  

       #   Employment Survey  

      #   Migrant Workers Survey

      #   Domestic Servants Survey–

      #   Survey of Professionals

      #   Farmers Survey…………  etc etc

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Ø  Apple for Apple ? Vaccine against Vaccine ? ………………[ 23 May 2021 ]

 

Suggestion re: UNIFIED – COMMON – CENTRAL purchase of Vaccines ( instead of individual State – purchases )

 

Dear Chief Ministers of States :

In any industry, it takes months ( if not years ) to :

       #   Put up Greenfield manufacturing facilities

       #   Ramp up existing manufacturing capacities

Ø  Hence, all these brave talk of DECENTRALIZED PROCUREMENT, in itself, is unlikely to get us 2166 million doses in Aug-Dec ( 5 months @ 430 million doses per month – as against actual procurement of a meagre 356 million doses in Jan-May , @ 70 million per month ! )

Ø  There is just no way, Pharma Industry can ramp-up vaccine production by 6 TIMES in June-July !

Ø  It is time to accept this ground reality of life and collaborate / cooperate with the Central Government for a,

      #  united / joint evaluation of tender offers  

     #   joint negotiations with suppliers  

     #   single order placement ( on behalf of all the States )

    #   Single Delivery Schedule Instruction to each supplier

Ø  It is time to pull together in one direction rather than pulling in different directions

Ø  Through this E-Mail, I am requesting Dr HarshVardhanji to file appropriate AFFIDAVIT in the Supreme Court , showing willingness of the Central Govt to coordinate vaccine procurement as suggested above

 

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ELABORATE HOW ?

As reported in following News in today’s papers :

Vax Policy for 18-44 arbitrary , irrational  /  TOI

'Arbitrary, irrational': SC on Centre's vaccination policy for 18-44 age group  /  Eco Times

Arbitrary, irrational': SC on Centre's vax policy for 18-44 yrs  /  dtnext

Strong SC 'dose' to Centre on Covid-19 vaccine policy; top court seeks details  /  Indian Express

 On CoWIN, Supreme Court flags digital divide  /  Hindu

 There is digital divide: SC tells Centre on mandatory CoWIN registration  /  Business Standard

 Accessibility barrier': Centre asked to clarify how urban-rural gap in vaccine drive can be bridged / Indian Express

SC asks Centre to furnish COVID-19 vaccines purchase data; outline of plan to vaccinate remaining population

 How ready for 3rd wave, HC asks state govt  /  Hindustan Times

Patnaik pushes for consensus on jabs  /  Hindustan Times

Patnaik pitches for Covid vax procurement by Centre in letter to all CMs  /  Business Standard

 Why not buy 100 % vaccines if you are getting hefty discount, Supreme Court asks Centre / Business Line

 

 

 

 

 

 

No Godfather for Rooftop Solar ?

 

 

 

Context :

New Net-Metering cap Risks Stalling Rooftop Solar Progress in India: IEEFA  /  22 Feb 2021

Extract :

A new regulation that excludes rooftop solar systems over 10 kilowatts (kW) from net metering will stall the adoption of larger installations in India, undermining progress towards the government’s rooftop solar target of 40 gigawatts (GW) by 2022, according to a new research note.

According to the briefing note by IEEFA and JMK, a provision in the Ministry of Power’s new rules for electricity consumers which mandates net metering for rooftop solar projects up to 10 kW and gross metering for systems with loads above 10 kW will likely make rooftop solar commercially unviable for big residential and commercial and industrial (C&I) consumers.

 “Currently, India only has around 6 GW of installed rooftop solar capacity, the majority of which has been developed by C&I consumers. So the very consumers who are driving rooftop installations in India are also the ones most likely to be deterred by the 10 kW limit on net metering,” said co-author Vibhuti Garg, Energy Economist, Lead India, at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

“India already has a long way to go to meet its critically important 40 GW target, and if limiting net metering to 10kW makes the rooftop solar space unattractive for C&I consumers, it is unlikely that we will be able to achieve that target.”

According to the authors who analysed the net and gross metering tariffs payable across leading states. It was found that gross-metered consumers are compensated for the export of solar power to the grid at rates of Rs 2-4/kWh. However, current rooftop power purchase agreements (PPAs) signed by Tier 1 developers have tariffs in the range of Rs 3.5-4/kWh.

“Developers and corporate consumers would consider any tariff lower than the current PPA tariff unviable,” said Jyoti Gulia from JMK. “If consumers have to buy electricity from Discoms at a high tariff and at the same time the feed-in tariff they receive is low they will have no incentive to set up rooftop solar at their premises

Also, under gross metering, corporate consumers would not benefit commercially from using the power generated from their own system for self-consumption. Both C&I consumers and developers will find their payback periods will be much longer and the investment will become riskier, delaying the roll-out of this strategically important, cost-effective technology solution.”

Discoms, on the other hand, will notionally benefit from the shift to gross metering for installations with loads above 10 kW, paying less for the same amount of energy. Except those benefits will be dissipated because there will be no material new investment by C&I customers, per the authors.

The note points out that although it is up to states to implement the central government’s restriction on net metering, many are likely to do so to address the loss-making Discoms’ concerns over high-paying C&I consumers shifting to rooftop solar.  Several states have already started to implement the new regulation in different forms. The note details how West Bengal has issued amendments that allow net metering for consumers with sanctioned loads of up to 5 kW and gross metering for contract demand above 5 kW. Karnataka has also proposed a gross metering arrangement for rooftop solar projects over 10 kW capacity at a Rs 2.84/kWh tariff.

The authors have proposed a net feed-in mechanism as a “win-win” solution for all the stakeholders, explaining that it would not have a major impact on Discoms’ revenue and would still be beneficial for the consumer.

A net feed-in mechanism is very similar to net metering with the exception of tariff calculation. Under a net feed-in arrangement, rooftop solar power used for self-consumption is charged at the retail tariff, and surplus (net) energy exported to the grid after self-consumption is credited at a net feed-in tariff determined by the state.

According to Garg,  the net feed-in mechanism is a middle ground option that meets the needs of both consumers and discoms, creating a win for both, and for India. “Under the net feed-in option, the consumer pays less to the discom than they would under gross metering but the discom receives more than they would under a net metering arrangement.”

“We urge the Ministry of Power to consider the interests of all stakeholders – developers, consumers and Discoms – in resolving the challenges of the net metering restriction while also stimulating private investment to boost adoption of low cost, zero emissions distributed capacity,” she concluded.

Recently, Union micro, small and medium industries minister Nitin Gadkari had urged power minister RK Singh to reconsider a recent controversial decision to restrict net metering in solar rooftop projects.

In a letter to Singh dated February 15, Gadkari noted that while more and more micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs) were installing solar rooftop projects, thereby contributing to the share of clean energy in the grid, the notification might well discourage them.

“It is feared that this share will shrink in the near future, affect power generation of the nation, as it is feared that the new amendments are going to affect the savings of the small units and individuals,” Gadkari said in a letter.

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The goofed up story of Rooftop Solar  /  Business Line  /  31 May 2021

Extract :

Solar Installations :

#   Total as of Feb 2021………………… 4324  MW

#   2019-20 addition……………………….. 719  MW

#   2020-21 addition………………………. 1809  MW

Reason for recent spurt ?

As per Animesh Damani : “ Modules priced very low >  Rs 28 – 31 / Watt “

What next ?

Future of rooftop solar looks bad  because :

#    Module prices rising to Rs 35 – 37 per watt

#    Next year, a 40 % Basic Customs Duty will kick in

#   State Governments ( which own most of the utilities ) don’t like Roof Top Solar

     because it takes away their  better-paying customers.

     

#   Utilities have consistently discouraged Roof Top Solar, holding back approvals

     and disallowing Net Metering

#   The Ministry of Power made matters worse last year with its draft “ Rights of

    Consumers “ Rules, recommending the far less remunerative GROSS METERING

    instead of NET METERING

     

Any Silver Lining to this Dark Cloud ?

#  Only a fall in Storage Costs can come to the rescue of  Roof Top Solar. When “

    RTS –plus- Battery “ becomes  affordable, an RTS owner need not depend on

    the Utility to buy surplus energy, which can instead be stored in  the battery for

    later use.

    

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Dear Shri R K Singhji ( Minister for Power ) :

Ø  It is high time we stop limiting our SOLAR VISION HORIZON like a “ Frog in the Well “

Ø  It is time to remember that the nomenclature : Roof Top Solar “ , somehow ties us down to the words ROOF TOP , which is only just one of the locations which can be used to harness Solar Energy

Ø  Solar Energy can also be harvested at other locations on Earth, such as FARMS , DESERTS, LAKES, MOUNTAIN TOPS, HIGHWAYS , TRAIN TRACKS, etc., or even through solar panels farms in  SPACE ( low earth orbits ? ), beaming electricity down to Earth-based receivers ( using micro-waves ? )

Ø  We must break loose  from the narrowly defined, Roof-Top Solar / Land-based Solar and latch on to the all-encompassing concept of ,

SOLAR  ENERGY  TRADING INFRASTRUCTURE  (  SETI  )

To understand the unleashing potential of my suggestion, please refer to following earlier E Mails on the subject :

Ø  Congratulations, Shri Saurabh Patelji …………………….[ 31 Dec 2020 ]

 

Ø  Congratulations, Shri Vijaybhai Rupaniji, ……………….[ 30 Dec 2020 ]

 

Ø  Congratulations, Shri R K Singhji …………………………….[ 19 Nov 2020 ]

Ø  A Tale of Two States ………………………………………………..[ 28 Oct 2020 ]

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh  /  hcp@RecruitGuru.com  /  02 June 2021