Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Saturday, 26 September 2020

Thank You, Adar Poonawala

 

Thank You, Adar Poonawala

 

 

[ceo.office@cyruspoonawallagroup.com  / contact@seruminstitute.com / michael.vernekar@seruminstitute.com ]

 

Thank you for raising the question that the Government has to answer – sooner than later

Context :

CEO of Serum Institute asks Indian govt: Will it have Rs 80,000 crores available over next one year?  

 

Extract :

 

Ø  "Quick question: will the Government of India have Rs. 80,000 crores available over the next one year ? Because that is what the Ministry of Health needs to buy and distribute the vaccine to everyone in India. This is the next concerning challenge we need to tackle," Poonawalla said.

 

Ø  "I ask this question, because we need to plan and guide, vaccine manufacturers both in India and overseas to service the needs of our country in terms of procurement and distribution," he added.

 

Ø  Vaccine manufacturers intend to sell to governments who will then distribute and vaccinate the Covid vaccine. Poonawalla had told IANS in an interview, "It is too early to comment on the vaccine's price.

 

Ø  However, we will keep it under Rs 1000. Having said that, our aim is to provide an efficacious and affordable vaccine. We are certain that it will be procured and distributed by governments without charge."

 

 

Ø  SII will be making one billion doses of COVISHIELD over the next one year for India and other low-and-middle-income countries (GAVI countries).Once we get necessary regulatory approvals, we will start manufacturing in large volumes.

 

 

Ø  SII has said it will not take profit from the vaccine.

 

     "In the interest of public health and as one of the largest vaccine producers it

      is our  responsibility to make the vaccine affordable for the public at-large,"

      he had said.

      

 

 

===================================================

 

Dear Adar,

 

You ask :

Does Govt have Rs 80,000 Crore ?

 

My answer :

Govt has to find that money NOW , or end up spending 100 times more LATER on looking after / treating millions who will get infected with COVID because they did not / could not, get vaccinated

Your calculations indicate Rs 80,000 Cr for ( say ), 100 crore citizen

That is Rs 800 per vaccine doze

How much “ economic activity “ could we possibly lose if we lose ONE DAY worth of GDP due to 10 crore ( non-vaccinated ) persons getting infected and become “ non-productive “ for 14 days of quarantine ?

In 2019, our GDP was $ 2875 billion = $ 7.9 billion per day ( for 365 days )

That amounts to Rs 55,137 Cr per day !

Hence, we can recover those Rs 80,000 crore in less than 2 days of full economic activity !

 

Here is another way to justify spending Rs 80,000 crore

I am not an economist but do the following calculations make any sense ?

 

Ø  Assume that, out of 100 crore citizen ( to be vaccinated ), only 55 crore persons were “ GDP Producer “ ( employed + self employed )

 

Ø  These 55 crore persons produce Rs 55,137 Cr of GDP per day ( Rs 1,137 per day per person )

 

 

Ø  Due to “non-vaccination / Covid infection “, 10 crore persons remained “ non-productive “ for 14 days each ( = 140 crore man-days loss )

 

Ø  Hence, total GDP loss = Rs 1137 / day  x 140 cr man-days = Rs 159,180 Crore = twice of Rs 80,000 crore to be allotted by the Government !

 ==================================================

As far as :

 

Ø  Deciding the “ priorities “ ( of who should get the vaccine first – second …etc )

Ø   Procurement / Distribution “ of the vaccine ,

 

I have sent following e-mails to the Cabinet Ministers / NITI Aayog / State CMs etc :

 

Bill Gates has the same concerns – and similar views  ………[ 25 Sept 2020 ]

 

A Nightmare come true ?   ……………………………………………………[ 18 Sept 2020 ]

 

Rationing of Covid Vaccine ?   ………………………………………………..[ 06 July 2020 ]

 

“ Corona Kavach “ Insurance  …………………………………………………[ 07 July 2020 ]

 An Appeal to DCGI – and others  …………………………………………..[ 09 July 2020 ]

Thank You All   …………………………………………………………………………[ 10 July 2020 ]

 Probabilities  …………………………………………………………………………..[ 19 July 2020 ]

 Congratulations , Sid Chakravarthy  ………………………………………[ 24 July 2020 ]

 Thank You , Cabinet Secretary   ……………………………………………..[ 07 Aug 2020 ]

===================================================

With regards,

Hemen Parekh  /  hcp@RecruitGuru.com  /  27 Sept 2020  

 

 

No comments:

Post a Comment