Thank You, Adar Poonawala
[ceo.office@cyruspoonawallagroup.com / contact@seruminstitute.com / michael.vernekar@seruminstitute.com
]
Thank you for raising the question that the Government
has to answer – sooner than later
Context :
CEO
of Serum Institute asks Indian govt: Will it have Rs 80,000 crores available
over next one year?
Extract
:
Ø "Quick
question: will the Government of India have Rs. 80,000 crores available
over the next one year ? Because that is what the Ministry of Health needs to
buy and distribute the vaccine to everyone in India.
This is the next concerning challenge we need to tackle," Poonawalla said.
Ø "I
ask this question, because we need to plan and guide, vaccine manufacturers
both in India and overseas to service the needs of our country in terms of procurement and distribution,"
he added.
Ø Vaccine
manufacturers intend to sell to governments who will then distribute and
vaccinate the Covid vaccine. Poonawalla had told IANS in an interview, "It
is too early to comment on the vaccine's price.”
Ø However,
we will keep it under Rs 1000. Having said that, our aim is to provide
an efficacious and affordable vaccine. We are certain that it will be procured
and distributed by governments without charge."
Ø SII
will be making one billion doses of COVISHIELD over the
next one year for India and
other low-and-middle-income countries (GAVI countries).Once we get
necessary regulatory approvals, we will start manufacturing in large volumes.
Ø SII
has said it will not take
profit from the vaccine.
"In the interest of public health and as one of the largest vaccine producers it
is our
he had said.
===================================================
Dear Adar,
You ask :
Does Govt have Rs 80,000 Crore ?
My answer :
Govt has to find that money NOW
, or end up spending 100 times more LATER on
looking after / treating millions who will get infected with COVID because they
did not / could not, get vaccinated
Your calculations indicate Rs
80,000 Cr for ( say ), 100 crore citizen
That is Rs 800 per vaccine doze
How much “ economic activity “ could we possibly lose
if we lose ONE DAY worth of GDP due to 10 crore ( non-vaccinated ) persons
getting infected and become “ non-productive “ for 14 days of quarantine ?
In 2019, our GDP was $ 2875 billion = $ 7.9 billion per
day ( for 365 days )
That amounts to Rs 55,137 Cr
per day !
Hence, we can recover those Rs 80,000 crore in less than 2 days of full economic activity !
Here is another
way to justify spending Rs 80,000 crore
I am not an economist but do the following calculations
make any sense ?
Ø Assume
that, out of 100 crore citizen ( to be vaccinated ), only 55 crore persons were
“ GDP Producer “ ( employed + self employed )
Ø These
55 crore persons produce Rs 55,137 Cr of GDP per day ( Rs
1,137 per day per person )
Ø Due
to “non-vaccination / Covid infection “, 10 crore persons remained “ non-productive
“ for 14 days each ( = 140
crore man-days loss )
Ø Hence,
total GDP loss = Rs 1137 / day x 140 cr
man-days = Rs 159,180
Crore = twice of Rs 80,000 crore to
be allotted by the Government !
==================================================
As far as :
Ø Deciding
the “ priorities “ ( of who should get the
vaccine first – second …etc )
Ø “ Procurement /
Distribution “ of the vaccine ,
I have sent following e-mails to the Cabinet Ministers
/ NITI Aayog / State CMs etc :
Bill
Gates has the same concerns – and similar views ………[ 25 Sept 2020 ]
A Nightmare come
true ? ……………………………………………………[ 18 Sept 2020 ]
Rationing of Covid Vaccine ? ………………………………………………..[ 06 July 2020 ]
“ Corona Kavach
“ Insurance …………………………………………………[ 07 July 2020 ]
===================================================
With regards,
Hemen Parekh / hcp@RecruitGuru.com / 27
Sept 2020
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