Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Wednesday, 2 June 2021

Vaccine Policy : Supreme Court elaborates

 


 

Dear Hon Supreme Court,

 

Over the past one year, I have sent several suggestions ( E Mails ) re COVID VACCINATION , to Cabinet Ministers / NITI Aayog / Drug Controller General of India, State Chief Ministers,  etc


I write to thank you for asking Central Govt / State Govts, to examine the feasibility of implementing some of these suggestions ( reproduced below )


It is heartening that your Honors took trouble to elaborate my suggestions , during yesterday’s hearing


Thanking you once again,

With regards,

Hemen Parekh  / hcp@RecruitGuru.com /  03 June 2021

===================================================

 

ELABORATE ON WHAT ?

On my suggestions sent through following earlier E Mails :

===================================================


Ø  Rationing of Covid Vaccine ? ……………….[ 06 July 2020 ]

 

Suggestions re PRIORITY / DISTRIBUTION CONTROL :


Ø  Who are those “ most in need “ ?

Ø  How to determine these priorities , scientifically / un-biasedly , for 700 million people ?

Ø  Why should we compile such data for all Indians ( suffering from Covid or not ) ?

Ø  What else should the Government do ensure that there is no “ black marketing “ of the limited supplies of the vaccine ?

Ø  For vaccine, each bottle / vial, besides carrying Batch Number, must carry UNIQUE bottle number / vial number . Vaccine Manufacturer will record which bottle got dispatched to which drug store / when. Data will get automatically transmitted to Govt’s Central Server

 

Ø  Pharmacy Stores to maintain Computerized Record of who ( which person ) was sold a given “ Vial Number “ . This data will get automatically transmitted to Govt’s Central Server

 

Ø  No vial to be sold to anyone unless a Mobile App ( VaccineVend  ? ) clearly displays that person’s priority  ( as determined by AI ) , as HIGH / MEDIUM / LOW . No person without such Mobile App will be sold the vaccine

 

Ø  Chemist will enter sale-details in customer / buyer’s Mobile App , which will get automatically transmitted to Govt’s Central Server

 

===================================================


Ø  A Nightmare come true ? ……………………[ 18 Sept 2020 ]

 

Suggestions re DISTRIBUTION PROCESS ( Domestic and Export ) :

 

But, nothing stops Central Government from announcing the following RULES for the Indian Vaccine Manufacturers :

Ø  You will email ( to DCGI – Drug Controller General of India / ICMR and the Commerce Ministry ), your weekly / monthly, production / sales figures ( including any vaccines imported in bulk for re-packaging or as vials )

Ø  You can locally sell vaccine, only to the Central and State Governments (- their notified agencies ) under BULK PURCHASE CONTRACTS

Ø  In any given month, you will be allowed to EXPORT, 20 % of the dozes that you have actually “delivered “to local governments during the preceding month. For such exports, you will need to apply – and obtain from the Commerce Ministry – an EXPORT LICENCE ( If you have delivered 10 lakh dozes locally in Nov 2020 , you will be issued an export license for exporting 2 lakh dozes in Dec 2020 )

Ø  To get an Export License, you will need to mention the DESTINATION PORTS ( countries to which exporting ). Commerce Ministry will want to ascertain that you are going to export to “ COVID affected POOR countries “ – and not to RICH countries

===================================================

 

Ø  Thank You, Adar Poonawala …………………….[ 26 Sept 2020 ]

 

Suggestion re Central Govt’s FUNDS AVAILABILITY :


Ø  How much “ economic activity “ could we possibly lose if we lose ONE DAY worth of GDP due to 10 crore ( non-vaccinated ) persons getting infected and become “ non-productive “ for 14 days of quarantine ?

Ø  In 2019, our GDP was $ 2875 billion = $ 7.9 billion per day( for 365 days )

Ø  That amounts to Rs 55,137 Cr per day !

Ø  Hence, we can recover those Rs 80,000 crore in less than 2 days of full economic activity !


Here is another way to justify spending Rs 80,000 crore


I am not an economist but do the following calculations make any sense ?

Ø  Assume that, out of 100 crore citizen ( to be vaccinated ), only 55 crore persons were “ GDP Producer “ ( employed + self employed )

Ø  These 55 crore persons produce Rs 55,137 Cr of GDP per day ( Rs 1,137 per day per person )

Ø  Due to “non-vaccination / Covid infection “, 10 crore persons remained “ non-productive “ for 14 days each ( = 140 crore man-days loss )

Ø  Hence, total GDP loss = Rs 1137 / day  x 140 cr man-days = Rs 159,180 Crore = twice of Rs 80,000 crore to be allotted by the Government !

=================================================

 

Ø  Voting and Vaccination : Compare and Contrast ………………[ 18 Oct 2020 ]

 

Suggestion re VACCINATION PROCESS :


Ø  Persons who find it difficult to fill in this Registration Data into mobile app ( for whatever reason – including, not having a Smart phone ), may take help from the nearest,

     #   CSC ( Common Service Centre ) 

     #   Post Office 

     #   Aadhar Registration Centers

     #   Nursing Home / Hospital / Lab or even any nearby Doctor,


 -       all of who will be requested to help the hapless citizen concerned ( they

         may use desktop to submit registration data on central server

         of Ayushman Bharat website )

       

Ø  Based on the  “ Registration Data “ submitted, the Central Server ( of Aushman Bharat ) will issue a UNIQUE PRIORITY NUMBER to the person ( by SMS on mobile ) .

Ø  The message will also assign a specific “  “ Vaccine Delivery Centre – VDC “ ( a nearby Hospital – Nursing Home – Lab – Doctor )

Ø  Server will, simultaneously send notification to that particular VDC , providing full registration details of the concerned citizen – indicating his PRIORITY

Ø  Based on the “ Number of Citizen “ assigned – and the PRIORITY of each such citizen, software installed will send an SMS to the citizens , assigning SPECIFIC DATE / TIME to each person for visit .

Ø  This automatic / rule-based “ SCHEDULING “ by the software, will ensure “ No crowding / maintenance of Social Distancing “

Ø   Concerned VDC will fill in details such as : Vaccinated on ( …..  ) /  Did not turn up

     (  This will alert health worker to visit residence of person for follow-up /

         reschedule visit )

=================================================


Ø  Vaccine : a Case of Missing Data……………………………[ 09 Apr 2021 ]

 

Suggestions re PUBLISHING OF VACCINE DISTRIBUTION DATA :


Ø  What prevents the Ministry to publish such eye-opening ANALYSIS on www.Cowin.gov.in  portal ?

Ø  It ( analysis / publishing ) can be done by some SOFTWARE, without human intervention

Ø  Analyzing / Publishing can be DAILY and AUTOMATIC, from data flowing in from all VDC ( Vaccine Delivery Centres ) / Govt Agency releasing orders / schedules / Vaccine Suppliers – Transporters – Recipients etc) 

Ø  Based on EXTRAPOLATION ( Weighed Averages modified by TREND ANALYSIS ), that software can even PREDICT the number of dozed that will be needed by each and every VDC for the next 7 days and accordingly issue to the Vaccine Manufacturers, precise DELIVERY SCHEDULES ( no humans )

Ø  These DELIVERY SCHEDULES themselves must be clearly viewable on COWIN portal, for each and every VDC and totaled for each and every State

Ø  The analysis must also display the “ No of dozes wasted “ due to expiry and other reasons

Ø  Cowin website must also show, for each and every VDC ( Date / Month wise ), a tabulation as follows :

      #  Date

      #  Opening Stock

      #  Receipt during the day ( linked with Consignment Details )

     #  Consumed during the day

     #  Closing Stock 

=================================================

 

Ø  Accelerating Learning / Improvising / Course-correcting …[ 18 May 2021 ]

 

Suggestion re: HOW TO PREDICT, where / when / who,  THIRD WAVE will strike ?

 

Dear Dr HarshVardhanji,


I hope , someday soon, you will :

Ø  Modify the CoWIN platform to collect / compile data as suggested above

Ø  Introduce some very powerful INCENTIVE to motivate citizens to come forward and voluntarily submit such DATA about themselves

Ø  Since such data compilation is far more important ( for saving millions of lives that the THIRD WAVE might claim ), I strongly URGE the Union Cabinet to MODIFY ( re : about to begin, massive exercises ) the DATA COLLECTION FORMATS of :

       #   CENSUS-21 

       #   NPR  ( National Population Register )

       #   CAA  

       #   Employment Survey  

      #   Migrant Workers Survey

      #   Domestic Servants Survey–

      #   Survey of Professionals

      #   Farmers Survey…………  etc etc

================================================


Ø  Apple for Apple ? Vaccine against Vaccine ? ………………[ 23 May 2021 ]

 

Suggestion re: UNIFIED – COMMON – CENTRAL purchase of Vaccines ( instead of individual State – purchases )

 

Dear Chief Ministers of States :

In any industry, it takes months ( if not years ) to :

       #   Put up Greenfield manufacturing facilities

       #   Ramp up existing manufacturing capacities

Ø  Hence, all these brave talk of DECENTRALIZED PROCUREMENT, in itself, is unlikely to get us 2166 million doses in Aug-Dec ( 5 months @ 430 million doses per month – as against actual procurement of a meagre 356 million doses in Jan-May , @ 70 million per month ! )

Ø  There is just no way, Pharma Industry can ramp-up vaccine production by 6 TIMES in June-July !

Ø  It is time to accept this ground reality of life and collaborate / cooperate with the Central Government for a,

      #  united / joint evaluation of tender offers  

     #   joint negotiations with suppliers  

     #   single order placement ( on behalf of all the States )

    #   Single Delivery Schedule Instruction to each supplier

Ø  It is time to pull together in one direction rather than pulling in different directions

Ø  Through this E-Mail, I am requesting Dr HarshVardhanji to file appropriate AFFIDAVIT in the Supreme Court , showing willingness of the Central Govt to coordinate vaccine procurement as suggested above

 

===================================================


ELABORATE HOW ?


As reported in following News in today’s papers :


Vax Policy for 18-44 arbitrary , irrational  /  TOI

'Arbitrary, irrational': SC on Centre's vaccination policy for 18-44 age group  /  Eco Times

Arbitrary, irrational': SC on Centre's vax policy for 18-44 yrs  /  dtnext

Strong SC 'dose' to Centre on Covid-19 vaccine policy; top court seeks details  /  Indian Express

 On CoWIN, Supreme Court flags digital divide  /  Hindu

 There is digital divide: SC tells Centre on mandatory CoWIN registration  /  Business Standard

 Accessibility barrier': Centre asked to clarify how urban-rural gap in vaccine drive can be bridged / Indian Express

SC asks Centre to furnish COVID-19 vaccines purchase data; outline of plan to vaccinate remaining population

Patnaik pushes for consensus on jabs  /  Hindustan Times

Patnaik pitches for Covid vax procurement by Centre in letter to all CMs  /  Business Standard

 Why not buy 100 % vaccines if you are getting hefty discount, Supreme Court asks Centre / Business Line

 

 

 

 

 

 

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