Dear Hon Supreme Court,
Over the past one year, I have sent several suggestions
( E Mails ) re COVID VACCINATION , to Cabinet Ministers / NITI Aayog / Drug
Controller General of India, State Chief Ministers, etc
I write to thank you for asking Central Govt / State
Govts, to examine the feasibility of implementing some of these suggestions (
reproduced below )
It is heartening that your Honors took trouble to
elaborate my suggestions , during yesterday’s hearing
Thanking you once again,
With regards,
Hemen Parekh / hcp@RecruitGuru.com / 03 June 2021
===================================================
ELABORATE
ON WHAT ?
On my suggestions sent through following earlier E
Mails :
===================================================
Ø
Rationing
of Covid Vaccine ? ……………….[ 06 July 2020 ]
Suggestions re PRIORITY /
DISTRIBUTION CONTROL :
Ø
Who are those “ most in need “ ?
Ø
How to determine these priorities , scientifically / un-biasedly
, for 700 million people ?
Ø
Why should we compile such data for all Indians ( suffering from
Covid or not ) ?
Ø
What else should the
Government do ensure that there is no “ black marketing “ of the limited supplies of the vaccine ?
Ø For
vaccine, each bottle / vial, besides carrying Batch Number, must carry UNIQUE bottle
number / vial number . Vaccine Manufacturer will record which bottle got dispatched
to which drug store / when. Data will get automatically transmitted to Govt’s
Central Server
Ø Pharmacy
Stores to maintain Computerized Record of who ( which person ) was sold a given
“ Vial Number “ . This data will get automatically transmitted to Govt’s
Central Server
Ø No vial
to be sold to anyone unless a Mobile App ( VaccineVend ? ) clearly displays
that person’s priority ( as determined by AI ) , as HIGH / MEDIUM /
LOW . No person without such Mobile App will be sold the vaccine
Ø Chemist
will enter sale-details in customer / buyer’s Mobile App , which will get
automatically transmitted to Govt’s Central Server
===================================================
Ø A
Nightmare come true ? ……………………[ 18 Sept 2020 ]
Suggestions re DISTRIBUTION
PROCESS ( Domestic and Export ) :
But, nothing stops
Central Government from announcing the following RULES for the Indian
Vaccine Manufacturers :
Ø You
will email ( to DCGI – Drug Controller General of India / ICMR and the Commerce
Ministry ), your weekly / monthly, production / sales figures ( including any
vaccines imported in bulk for re-packaging or as vials )
Ø You can
locally sell vaccine, only to the Central and State Governments (- their
notified agencies ) under BULK PURCHASE CONTRACTS
Ø In any
given month, you will be allowed to EXPORT, 20 % of the dozes that you have
actually “delivered “to local governments during the preceding month. For such
exports, you will need to apply – and obtain from the Commerce Ministry – an
EXPORT LICENCE ( If you have delivered 10 lakh dozes locally in Nov 2020 , you
will be issued an export license for exporting 2 lakh dozes in Dec 2020 )
Ø To get
an Export License, you will need to mention the DESTINATION PORTS ( countries
to which exporting ). Commerce Ministry will want to ascertain that you are
going to export to “ COVID affected POOR countries “ – and not to RICH
countries
===================================================
Ø Thank
You, Adar Poonawala …………………….[ 26 Sept 2020 ]
Suggestion re Central Govt’s FUNDS AVAILABILITY :
Ø How
much “ economic activity “ could we possibly lose if we lose ONE DAY worth of
GDP due to 10 crore ( non-vaccinated ) persons getting infected and become “
non-productive “ for 14 days of quarantine ?
Ø In
2019, our GDP was $ 2875 billion = $ 7.9 billion per day( for 365 days )
Ø That
amounts to Rs 55,137 Cr per day !
Ø Hence,
we can recover those Rs 80,000 crore in less than 2 days of full
economic activity !
Here is
another way to justify spending Rs 80,000 crore
I am not an economist but
do the following calculations make any sense ?
Ø Assume
that, out of 100 crore citizen ( to be vaccinated ), only 55 crore persons were
“ GDP Producer “ ( employed + self employed )
Ø These
55 crore persons produce Rs 55,137 Cr of GDP per day ( Rs 1,137
per day per person )
Ø Due to
“non-vaccination / Covid infection “, 10 crore persons remained “
non-productive “ for 14 days each ( = 140
crore man-days loss )
Ø Hence,
total GDP loss = Rs 1137 / day x 140 cr man-days = Rs 159,180 Crore = twice of
Rs 80,000 crore to be allotted by the Government !
=================================================
Ø Voting
and Vaccination : Compare and Contrast ………………[ 18 Oct 2020 ]
Suggestion re VACCINATION
PROCESS :
Ø Persons who
find it difficult to fill in this Registration Data into mobile app ( for whatever
reason – including, not having a Smart phone ), may take help from the
nearest,
# CSC
( Common Service Centre )
# Post
Office
# Aadhar
Registration Centers
# Nursing
Home / Hospital / Lab or even any nearby Doctor,
- all of who will be requested to help the hapless citizen concerned ( they
may use desktop
to submit
of Ayushman Bharat website )
Ø Based
on the “ Registration Data “ submitted, the Central Server ( of
Aushman Bharat ) will issue a UNIQUE
PRIORITY NUMBER to the person ( by SMS on mobile ) .
Ø The
message will also assign a specific “ “ Vaccine
Delivery Centre – VDC “ ( a nearby Hospital –
Nursing Home – Lab – Doctor
)
Ø Server
will, simultaneously send notification to that particular VDC , providing full
registration details of the concerned citizen – indicating his PRIORITY
Ø Based
on the “ Number of Citizen “ assigned – and the PRIORITY of each such citizen,
software installed will send an SMS to the citizens , assigning SPECIFIC
DATE / TIME to each person for visit .
Ø This
automatic / rule-based “ SCHEDULING “ by the software, will ensure “ No
crowding / maintenance of Social Distancing “
Ø Concerned
VDC will fill in details such as : Vaccinated on ( ….. )
/ Did not turn up
( This will alert health worker to visit residence of person for follow-up /
reschedule visit )
=================================================
Ø Vaccine
: a Case of Missing Data……………………………[ 09 Apr 2021 ]
Suggestions re PUBLISHING OF
VACCINE DISTRIBUTION DATA :
Ø What
prevents the Ministry to publish such eye-opening ANALYSIS on www.Cowin.gov.in portal
?
Ø It (
analysis / publishing ) can be done by some SOFTWARE, without human intervention
Ø Analyzing
/ Publishing can be DAILY and AUTOMATIC, from data flowing in from all VDC (
Vaccine Delivery Centres ) / Govt Agency releasing orders / schedules / Vaccine
Suppliers – Transporters – Recipients etc)
Ø Based
on EXTRAPOLATION ( Weighed Averages modified by TREND ANALYSIS ), that software can even PREDICT the
number of dozed that will be needed by each and every VDC for the next 7 days
and accordingly issue to the Vaccine Manufacturers, precise DELIVERY
SCHEDULES ( no humans )
Ø These
DELIVERY SCHEDULES themselves must be clearly viewable on COWIN portal, for
each and every VDC and totaled for each and every State
Ø The
analysis must also display the “ No of dozes wasted “ due
to expiry and other reasons
Ø Cowin
website must also show, for each and every VDC ( Date / Month wise ), a
tabulation as follows :
# Date
# Opening
Stock
# Receipt
during the day ( linked with Consignment Details )
# Consumed
during the day
# Closing
Stock
=================================================
Ø Accelerating
Learning / Improvising / Course-correcting …[ 18 May 2021 ]
Suggestion re: HOW TO PREDICT, where / when / who,
THIRD WAVE will strike
?
Dear Dr
HarshVardhanji,
I hope , someday soon,
you will :
Ø Modify
the CoWIN platform to collect / compile data as suggested above
Ø Introduce
some very powerful INCENTIVE to motivate citizens to come forward and voluntarily
submit such DATA about themselves
Ø Since
such data compilation is far more important ( for saving millions of lives that
the THIRD WAVE might claim ), I strongly URGE the Union Cabinet to MODIFY ( re :
about to begin, massive exercises ) the DATA COLLECTION FORMATS of :
# CENSUS-21
# NPR (
National Population Register )
# CAA
# Employment
Survey
# Migrant
Workers Survey
# Domestic
Servants Survey–
# Survey
of Professionals
# Farmers
Survey………… etc etc
================================================
Ø Apple
for Apple ? Vaccine against Vaccine ? ………………[ 23 May 2021 ]
Suggestion re: UNIFIED –
COMMON – CENTRAL purchase of Vaccines ( instead of individual State
– purchases )
Dear Chief Ministers of States :
In any
industry, it takes months ( if not years ) to :
# Put up Greenfield manufacturing facilities
#
Ramp up existing manufacturing capacities
Ø Hence,
all these brave talk of DECENTRALIZED PROCUREMENT, in itself, is unlikely to
get us 2166 million doses in Aug-Dec ( 5 months @ 430 million doses per month –
as against actual procurement of a meagre 356 million doses in Jan-May , @ 70
million per month ! )
Ø There
is just no way, Pharma Industry can ramp-up vaccine production by 6 TIMES in June-July !
Ø It is
time to accept this ground reality of life and collaborate / cooperate with the
Central Government for a,
# united / joint evaluation of
tender offers
# joint negotiations with
suppliers
# single order placement ( on
behalf of all the States )
# Single Delivery Schedule
Instruction to each supplier
Ø It is
time to pull together in one direction rather than pulling in different
directions
Ø Through
this E-Mail, I am requesting Dr HarshVardhanji to file appropriate AFFIDAVIT in
the Supreme Court , showing willingness of the Central Govt to coordinate
vaccine procurement as suggested above
===================================================
ELABORATE
HOW ?
As reported in following News in today’s papers :
Vax
Policy for 18-44 arbitrary , irrational / TOI
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