Elon loves Optimus

 

 

Context :

Elon Musk feels 'super bad' about economy, needs to cut 10% of Tesla staff ….. [  ET – 04 June 2022 ]

Extract :

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has a "super bad feeling" about the economy and needs to cut about 10% of staff at the electric carmaker, he said in an email to executives seen by Reuters.

The message, sent on Thursday and titled "pause all hiring worldwide", came two days after the billionaire told staff to return to the workplace or leave, and adds to a growing chorus of warnings from business leaders about the risks of recession.

In another email to employees on Friday, Musk said Tesla will be reducing salaried headcount by 10%, as it has become " overstaffed in many areas."  But " hourly headcount will increase," he said.


Almost 100,000 people were employed at Tesla and its subsidiaries at the end of 2021

Company may have “ Optimus “ Robot Prototype Soon

Tesla Inc may have a functioning humanoid robot up and running within months, CEO Elon Musk said on Twitter , as he postponed the electric carmaker’s second AI Day until September 30, for that reason

Optimus, first introduced in August 2021 during Tesla’s  inaugural AI Day , is a human sized robot Musk envisions will be able to perform mundane tasks like grocery shopping

Also known as Tesla Bot, the robotic humanoid will one day have “ the potential to be more significant than the vehicle business over time “ , Musk has said

According to a presentation made during the 2021 AI event, Optimus will be around 173 centimeters ( 5ft , 8 “ ) tall , weigh around 57 kg and have a carrying capacity of 20 kg.

It will be controlled by the same Artificial Intelligence systems that Tesla is developing for use in its electric vehicles

 

MY  TAKE  :

Ø  Musk may not care………………………… [ 16 Nov 2020 ]

 

Extract :

As compared with any auto factory of the world, Tesla needs far fewer Man-hours / unit, to produce a car

All of his factories are highly automated with specialized ROBOTS and require very few human workers

Following Wright’s Law , Tesla’s labour requirement is dropping by 15-20 % with

each doubling of cumulative units produced

Refer :

Y=ax^b  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lKRL7Hghfk

Wright’s Law Formula

Y = cumulative average time (or cost) per unit
X = cumulative number of units produced
a = time (or cost) required to produce 1st unit
b = slope of the function

Ø  Second industrial revolution ? ………………………….[ 21 Sept 2015 ]

Extract :

 

But Western countries are not resigned to their fate of a lowered " Standard of Living "

 

They are gearing up to usher “ The Second Industrial Revolution “ -  in the form of Robots :

 

Robots 

Ø  manufacturing cars / appliances / machinery / anything

Ø  3 D printing products from designs downloaded from Net

 

Ø   managing health care in hospitals

 

Ø   serving food in restaurants

 

Ø   carrying out office jobs

 

Ø   teaching in schools

 

Ø   entertaining

 

             Robots everywhere !


And these are Robots that :

 

Ø   work 24 hours/day and do not ask for a salary

 

Ø   do not " go slow "or go on a strike

 

Ø   do not demand " Quotas / Reservations "

 

Ø   do not take holidays or take " Sick Leave "

 

Ø   do not resign / demand promotion

 

Ø   neither envy other robots nor sabotage 

 

Ø   do not complain against unpleasant work

 

Ø   do not get tired and need rest

 

Ø   production does not drop after working for 8 hours

 

Ø   do not demand " Overtime Pay " @ 200 % of normal

 

Ø   perfectly co-ordinate their tasks with other robots

 

Ø   willingly " retire " at any age , whenever required

 

Ø   do not demand Unemployment/Retirement Benefits

 

Ø   may , someday , provide you with emotional support when you are sick / depressed  !

 

 

And this Second Industrial Revolution is NOT going to take a hundred years to reach the shores of India

 

 

Ø  Automatic for the people: robots in the workplace……….  [ ET Newsletter /  04 June 2022 ]

Extract :

There were more than three million industrial robots operating in factories around the world in 2020, according to a report published in December 2021 by International Federation of Robotics (IFR).

It said the use of industrial robots in factories doubled in five years – from 66 robots per 10,000 human workers in 2015, to 126 per 10,000 in 2020.

Robot orders were up 21% overall in 2021 and increased 40% in the first quarter of 2022, according to the Association for Advancing Automation.

Us vs them? Robots and related technologies are typically portrayed in pop culture and the media as the enemies of human workers. But this isn’t borne out by the facts.

South Korea is the world’s most automated country, according to IFR, with a robot density (robots per 10,000 human workers) of 932, which is almost eight times the global average of 126. The country’s robot density has been increasing by 10% every year since 2015, yet unemployment has remained steady at around 3.5% for two decades.

According to a study conducted by the World Economic Forum before the pandemic, while some industries or roles will see job losses, new technologies will spark a net increase of 58 million jobs globally over the next few years.

In some areas – such as subsea engineering, offshore maintenance, nuclear decommissioning, deep mining, and space – robots can also carry out tasks that are dangerous for humans, it said.

Robot nations

Second to South Korea on the list of the most automated countries is Singapore, which is followed by Japan, Germany, Sweden, Hong Kong, the US, Chinese Taipei, China and Denmark, which are tied for ninth, and Italy.

Hong Kong moved up one spot in 2020, going from sixth to seventh, while the US went from ninth to seventh and Denmark dropped from sixth to ninth. But China saw the greatest leap, with a robot density of 246, taking from 15th to ninth. In 2015, it ranked 25th, with a robot density of just 49.

Though India doubled the number of industrial robots in its factories from 2014 to 2019, IFR said in a 2020 report, the country still has a long way to go, with just four industrial robots per 10,000 employees.

 

Dear NITI  Aayog,

 

It is quite possible that you might already be under pressure from some quarters

to come out with a POLICY document on “ Adoption of Robots in India “

If – and when – you do ( although a very low priority matter ), you might use this

e-mail as an INPUT for framing and circulating a QUESTIONNAIRE among all

stakeholder before framing a policy

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh  /  hcp@RecruitGuru.com  /  04 June 2022

 

Not an easy task

 

 

Context :

Niti Aayog to conduct household survey to assess impact and outreach of central Schemes

(  ET -  02 June 2022 )

Extract :

The Development, Monitoring & Evaluation Office under Niti Aayog will soon start a comprehensive household survey to evaluate the impact and outreach of key central sector schemes (CS) and centrally-sponsored schemes (CSS) amounting to an annual allocation of over ₹11 lakh crore.

The exercise is expected to be completed before the next fiscal year following which DMEO will propose the necessary changes to the CS and CSS to prevent leakages and ensure that the scheme benefits go to the targeted individuals

 

"The idea is to evaluate the success of these schemes on the ground. This kind of survey will help prevent leakages and improve efficiency in the implementation of these schemes in future while ensuring benefits reach to the people who deserve the most," the official added.

===================================================

The exercise is also aimed at giving flexibility to states in implementation of these schemes by reducing proliferation of such schemes.

Some of the big-ticket schemes to be evaluated include :

  

#   Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme,

 

#   Ayushman Bharat,

 

#   National Social Assistance Programme and

 

#  Food and fertiliser subsidy, among others.

 

MY  TAKE :

I suppose there are dozens of CS / CSS schemes

And there must be millions of “ households “ ( out of our estimated 290 million – 2900 Lakh households ), whose ( family ) members “ qualify / are eligible “ to receive the benefits of one or more of these Schemes

In fact, different members of a given family may be “ eligible / entitled “ to benefits under different schemes

It is obvious that, while framing any CS / CSS scheme, the Govt must have laid down very STRINGENT / SPECIFIC “ criteria of eligibility “

With this background, I believe conducting SURVEY of mere 1 LAKH households may not yield any meaningful insights ( even considering a well-designed Statistical sampling plan )

Is DMEO planning a survey of only those households , which ( whose some or other member ) are already EXISTING RECEPIENTS ( beneficiaries ) of some or other CS – CSS scheme ?

This assumption looks possible since ( I am sure ), Govt must have an elaborate / detailed / comprehensive DATABASE of the existing beneficiaries of each scheme, in order to effect DBT ( Direct Benefit Transfer to their Bank Accounts ) – as per recent transfer of Rs 2000 / - each to 10 Crore farmers ( which might include some who are really NOT eligible / do not qualify )

But what about those 289.9 Million ( 2899 LAKH ) households which will be LEFT OUT of this survey ?

These “ non – covered “ households could well contain MILLIONS of citizens who meet ALL the “ Eligibility Criteria “ ( for some or other scheme ) – but they do not have awareness of the existence of these Schemes

Or be aware of the fact that they possess ALL the “ Eligibility Criteria “ for X – Y – Z scheme

POSER :

Is there a better way to collect such data ( number of eligible citizens out of 137 Crore ) ?

ANSWER :

Surely

Next year Govt is staring the ALL INDIA CENSUS exercise to cover all 137 crore citizens

Apart from the fact that it will be carried out using a Mobile App, it is likely to contain following “ data – fields “ which were in the last  ( 2011 ) paper-based CENSUS FORM  ( seems no “ Eligibility Criteria “ is left out ! ) :

 

 

  SIDE  A

1         ……….. Name

 

2         ……….. Relationship with Head

 

3         ……….  Sex

 

4         ……….  Date of Birth /  Age

 

5         ………. Current Marital Status

 

6         ………  Age at marriage

 

7         ………  Religion

 

8         ………. SC  /  ST

 

9         ………. Disability

 

10     ………… Mother Tongue

 

11     ……….. Other languages known

 

12     ……….. Literacy Status

 

13     …………Status of Attendance ( in Education Institutions )

 

14     ………… Highest  Education attained

 

===================================================

SIDE  B

 

15    ………. Workers and Non-Workers

 

#  1…. Main Worker [ if worked for 6 months or more ]

 

#  2…. Marginal Worker [ worked for 3 months or more but less than 6 months ]

 

#  3…. Worked for less than 3 months

 

#  4…. Non-Worker [ if not worked at all ]

 

       16………….. Category of Economic Activity

              #  1….. Cultivator

              #  2….. Agricultural Labourer

              #  3….. Worker in Household Industry

              #  4…… Other worker

 

===================================================

 

ONLY FOR  16#3  AND  16#4

 

 

             17     Occupation ………………….                 ( Describe the actual work  )

 

             18    …Nature of Industry-Trade-Service   ( Where the person works 

                                                                          worked  or Self-Employed )

                                                                                        

          19    …Class of Worker ………………………….  (  Give code from list below )

 

 ================================================== 

ONLY FOR  15#2 / 15#3  / 15#4

 

       20  ……………. Non-Economic Activity      [ give code from list below ]

 

       21  ……………..Seeking or Available for Work  [  YES   /   NO  ]

 

 ==================================================

 

      22  …………… Fill for Marginal worker /  Non Worker [ Travel distance to place

                         of work – one way  and  Mode of travel  ]

                                

            

      23  ……………  Birth Place

 

       24  ……………. Migration Characteristics

  

      25  …………..  Reason for Migration

 

       26……………   Duration of Stay

  

      27 ……………..Children surviving

  

     28  ………………Children ever born

 

      29  ………………No of children born alive during last one year  

 

 

Name of Respondent  [  3 digit Serial Number ]

 

Signature / Thumb impression of respondent / Date

 

Signature of Enumerator / Date

 

Sex of Enumerator {  M  /  F  }

 

Signature of Supervisor with Date

 

 

To these ( data fields ), I had suggested adding the following :

{ source :  Census 2021 : an Unprecedented Opportunity    /    11 Apr 2019 }

 

       #  Aadhar ID

 

         #  PAN

 

         #  Mobile Phone Number

 

         #  E Mail ID– to be treated as “ User ID “ for accessing own data for EDIT

             purpose

  

         #  Password – for EDITING own data, online , at any time

 

         #  Voter ID

 

 

URGENCY :

 

My suggestion assumes URGENCY given the fact that only yesterday, BIHAR

government passed a resolution to carry out a STATE-LEVEL Census ( of State

Citizens ) for determining OBC – SC – ST population

{ Refer : Explained: What is the caste-based census announced in Bihar by Nitish Kumar? / 01 June 2022 }

   

IF IMPLEMENTED, THIS IS BOUND TO SIMILAR STATE-LEVEL CENSUSES IN ALL OUR STATES

 

This nightmare could lead to :

 

#  Widely differing “ Data Fields “ in Census Forms of different States

#  Non-capture of ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

#  Non-inclusion of some of the 2633 “ castes / sub castes “ under umbrella

    named OBC

#  A person of one State migrating to another State may turn “ In-eligible “ for a

    scheme

#  Huge expense and manpower costs , spread over months / years

#  Because of widely differing DATA-BASES ( of States Censuses ), no chance of “

    Aggregating “

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Dear NITI Aayog,

I urge you to :

Ø  Give up the idea of DMEO survey

Ø  Persuade States to give up their idea of State-level OBC census

Ø  Persuade Centre / States to have just ONE / CENTRAL / NATIONAL census

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh  /  hcp@RecruitGuru.com / 03 June 2022  

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Added on  04 June  2022 :

Survey flags last-mile delivery issues with Direct Benefit Transfer  ( Business Line / 04 June 2022 )

Extract :

A variety of exclusionary factors can be found at every stage of the delivery pipeline of Direct Benefit Transfers (DBT), a survey by Dvara Reserch has revealed.

Delivery of Social Protection Entitlements in India: Unpacking Exclusion, Grievance Redress, and the Relevance of Citizen-Assistance Mechanisms