Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Monday, 16 November 2020

Musk may not care

 


 

But Indian industrialists ( Mukesh – Mittal – Munjal – Maini ) are certainly worried about their factory workers to :

Ø  Produce a Domicile Certificate before getting a job

Ø  May be even having to produce a “ WORK PERMIT “ ( ala H1-B Visa ? ) from the States concerned

     

Context :

How other States may replicate Haryana’s New bill reserving 75 % jobs for locals in private sector

Extract :

Ø  Haryana

#  Every employer to employ 75 % local candidates in posts where wages

     are not over Rs 50,000 / month

         #  Employers can claim exemption if sufficient local candidates with skills

             are not available

Ø  Andhra Pradesh

#  Industries, factories, PPP projects to ensure 75 % employment to local

     candidates

#  If qualified lcal candidates are not available, industry must train locals in 

     3 years

Ø  Karnataka

#  In September, government said it will issue directive to recruit locals in

     Group C & D ( clerical ) jobs in PSUs; says “natives “must be given

     priority in private sector too

Ø  Uttarakhand

#  CM directs industry department to formulate a proposal to ensure that 70

     % of jobs in state’s industries will go to local

 

Karnataka keeps law on job quota for locals at bay

Extract :

Ø  Although the Constitutional validity of such laws remain challenged in court, Haryana's move has revived the debate in Karnataka where this has been tried before

 

Ø  "Under such a law, special permission should be sought from the government if a company has less than 75% local employees. This leads to a lot of logistical complications, as it is not necessary that all expertise required to run a firm or a factory is available locally “

 

Ø  "Though reasonable restrictions to provide up to 50% reservation is fine, a higher limit is against the well-being of a company, which should be empowered to make its own appointments,"

 

Ø  Deputy Chief Minister C N Ashwath Narayan, who heads the IT/BT department, concurred and said companies would prefer states with fewer regulations of this kind. He even called it 'retrograde'. 

===================================================

WHY WOULD ELON MUSK NOT CARE ?

 

( A )   He has his plate full

Ø  He has no compulsion to put up his 5th Gigafactory in India .

 

Ø  After his first factory in Freemont ( USA ) , he broke ground for his 2nd factory in Shanghai ( China ) in 2018 and started assembly within ONE YEAR ! This factory is expected to deliver 250,000 cars in 2020 !

 

Ø  His 3rd factory in Berlin is under construction and expected to start production by end 2021

 

Ø  His 4th factory in Austin ( USA ) is also under construction and will start production by 2022

 

 

( B )   He has other options for his next factory 

Ø  He has no compulsion to put up his 5th Gigafactory in India. For his 5th factory , he is looking at Singapore / Vietnam / Indonesia

 

( C )  As compared with any auto factory of the world, Tesla needs far fewer Man-hours / unit, to produce a car

Ø  All of his factories are highly automated with specialized ROBOTS and require very few human workers

  

( D )  Following Wright’s Law , Tesla’s labour requirement is dropping by 15-20 %

         with each doubling of cumulative units produced

         

  Refer :

Y=axb

Wright’s Law Formula

Y = cumulative average time (or cost) per unit
X = cumulative number of units produced
a = time (or cost) required to produce 1st unit
b = slope of the function

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7lKRL7Hghfk

Now , consider the following :

Ø  By March 2020 , Tesla rolled out its first MILLIONTH ( cumulative ) car

 

Ø  By Dec 2020 , Tesla would have capacity to produce 650,000 cars / year ( between California and China factories )

 

Ø  Hence , by middle of 2022 , it would have produced ( cumulative ), 2 MILLION cars and dropped its “ labour requirement “ by another 20 % from current level

 

Ø  With coming on stream of Berlin and Austin factories ( by Dec 2021 ? ) , Tesla could conceivably achieve a cumulative production of 4 million car by Dec 2024 – once again dropping its “ labour requirement “ by yet another 20 % !

 

 

If Tesla puts up a plant in India in 2024 , chances are , it may not need more than a few hundred highly qualified engineers ( all drawing a salary of Rs 1 lakh / month ? ) for maintenance of its highly automated robotic plant !

If Tesla could already offer FSD ( Full Self Driving ) cars ( without a human driver ) – and that too on complicated roads / turns / traffic signals / unpredictable drivers of other cars etc., then there is good reason to believe that it could easily operate its future streamlined manufacturing / assembly lines, with hardly a human around !

By that time, the way our States are getting busy with their hollow / populist “ carrots “, it is conceivable that I may need to obtain a TOURIST VISA to travel from Mumbai to Mangalore !

We have earlier heard :  Man proposes , God disposes

Now I am hearing : 

Centre proposes ( to multinationals to shift their manufacturing plants from China to India ) , States are disposing !

Is there any State Chief Minister, courageous enough to say :

“ Hey, Elon :

Put up your plant in my state, as long as all of your employees are INDIANS “

 

With regards,

Hemen parekh  /  hcp@RecruitGuru.com /  17 Nov 2020

 

 

Related Readings :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3

https://futurism.com/the-byte/tesla-cancels-35000-model-3-car?mc_eid=a96c428172&mc_cid=4cffed8629

https://futurism.com/graphene-batteries-gamechanger

Luck does not happen !...........................[ 04 Nov 2020 ]

 

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