Wherefore Art Thou, O Jobs ?

 

 

( - not the “ Steve Jobs “  kind –  I mean , “ Leave Jobs “  kind )

 

Context :

AI could help determine who gets laid off   …………  ET  / 05  May 2023

 

Extract :

The Covid-19 pandemic gave us firings by Zoom. Could the current technology craze give us mass terminations devised by AI ?

ChatGPT can already write a generic layoffs memo, and Microsoft Corp. is planning to roll out its 365 Copilot to Excel, which could serve as an aid in financial planning. Now a French startup called Pigment SAS is testing a generative AI tool expressly for chief financial officers.

The product, called Pigment AI, is based on OpenAI software.

It places a chatbot inside of spreadsheets and dashboards used to make financial plans. The software is designed to chew through a company’s data and spit out answers to questions like, What if we launch our new product three months in advance? or What do I do to double my revenue in the next year?

“It’s removing the uninteresting part of the work,” said Romain Niccoli, Pigment’s co-chief executive officer.

Right now, nearly every business is scrambling to incorporate versions of the latest AI to boost its bottom line or avoid being gutted by superhuman computers. They are not always fast enough.

As a result, many companies may be interested in this sample question Pigment says its chatbot can answer:

 Why are our current projected people costs higher than the approved 2023 plan ?

 

You don’t have to be an AI to guess that the recommendation could be to cut people costs. Or simply, cut people.

Companies are bracing for AI to automate jobs away.

 

IBM’s CEO sees 30% of back-office functions going away in five years and has paused hiring for such roles.

Microsoft Copilot could save data analysts and other spreadsheet crunchers considerable time — or reduce the need to hire as many of them.

While AI could inform a company’s decision to lay people off, Niccoli said it’s a human who will ultimately make the call. “It’s just making sure you understand the consequences,” he said. “It will not decide for you.”

If you are laid off with the help of an AI someday, odds are you wouldn’t even know it.

Concerns about AI are amplifying. The White House is backing new rules, and the UK’s antitrust watchdog launched a review. AI is being deployed on the battlefield without a full understanding of the consequences. But the billionaire venture capitalist Vinod Khosla said slowing down could kick up a different set of problems.

MY  TAKE :

 

With rapid proliferation of AI based “ productivity-enhancing “ Apps , what jobs are most likely to disappear ?

Read-up ( offline or online ) and you will get vague / broad / non-specific answer such as :

#  White collar workers – Back office staff – Clerical employees etc.

Obviously , this answer is not helping individuals who might lose their jobs to AI

So , why not ask AI :  What specific jobs are you likely to take over ?

ChatGPT gave me following “ SPECIFIC “ answer

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

www.hemenparekh.ai  /  08 May 2023

 

My poser to ChatGPT  :

There are many experts making many " predictions " about the jobs that will disappear in future, with the proliferation of productivity-enhansing AI applications.

This , they say , will apply more to " white collar " office jobs , where employees are mainly using a computer as their principal tool.

In the list that follows, I have compiled a brief / partial list of such jobs, some of which fall in the category of " Self Employed ".

Please tabulate these jobs and in the table ( with title JOBS THAT AI WILL DISPLACE BY 2025 ) , incorporate 2 columns with headings > Will disappear totally > will disappear partially

 

ChatGPT replied :

Sure, here's the updated table with the additional jobs you provided:

Jobs that AI will Displace by 2025	Will Disappear Totally	Will Disappear Partially
Accountants		✓
Actors		✓
Agents	✓
Animators		✓
Artists		✓
Beauticians		✓
Bookkeepers		✓
Brokers	✓
Carpenters		✓
Chauffeurs		✓
Composers		✓
Consultants		✓
Correspondents		✓
Dancers		✓
Designers		✓
Detectives		✓
Developers (S/W)		✓
Drivers		✓
Dress Designers		✓
Electricians		✓
Engineers		✓
Entertainers		✓
Fabricators		✓
Farmers		✓
Fishermen		✓
Florists		✓
Goldsmiths		✓
Hairdressers		✓
Housemaids		✓
Housekeepers		✓
Income Tax Advisors		✓
Instructors		✓
Insurance Agents		✓
Interior Designers		✓
Interpreters		✓
Jewellers		✓
Journalists		✓
Lobbyists		✓
Locksmiths		✓
Magicians		✓
Management Consultants		✓
Marketing Consultants		✓
Marriage Counselors		✓
Mechanics		✓
Mediators		✓
Midwives		✓
Nannies		✓
Nurses		✓
Occupational Counselors		✓
Opticians		✓
Painters		✓
Paramedics		✓
Personal Trainers		✓
Photographers		✓
Physiotherapists		✓
Players (Sports)		✓
Playwrights		✓
Plumbers		✓
Producers		✓
Real Estate Agents		✓
Recruiters		✓
Referees		✓
Repairers (All Types)		✓
Reporters		✓
Rickshaw Drivers		✓
Sales Agents		✓
Sculptors		✓
Singers		✓
Social Workers		✓
Songwriters		✓
Specialists (All types)		✓
Street vendors		✓
Travel Agents		✓
Tutors		✓
Typists		✓
Tailors		✓
Teachers		✓
Therapists		✓
Tour Guides		✓
Umpires		✓
Undertakers		✓
Upholsterers		✓
Vendors		✓
Videographers		✓
Vocational Counselors		✓
Watch Repairers		✓
Water-proofers

I asked ChatGPT :

Many thanks. Surely you must have clues as to the processes used by each of these jobseekers . 

And , surely, you must have deep understanding of which of these processes are " amenable / susceptible " for being taken over by AI . 

Please list against each job ( in this table ) , WHY you believe a particular job will disappear ( partially or entirely ) . 

You may add to this tabulation, as many additional columns as you wish

 

ChatGPT

 

I'm sorry, but as an AI language model, I do not have personal beliefs or opinions. However, I can provide some general information on the potential impact of AI on different types of jobs.

Generally speaking, any job that involves routine and repetitive tasks is more susceptible to automation through AI. This includes jobs that involve data entry, data analysis, basic bookkeeping, and customer service.

On the other hand, jobs that require creativity, emotional intelligence, and complex problem-solving are less likely to be replaced by AI in the near future.

For example, jobs such as accountants, bookkeepers, and data entry clerks involve a lot of routine work that can be automated with the help of AI.

Similarly, travel agents and insurance agents, who primarily provide information and recommendations, may be replaced by automated systems in the near future.

However, jobs that require creativity and emotional intelligence, such as artists, writers, therapists, and counselors, are less likely to be replaced by AI.

Similarly, jobs that require physical dexterity and manual skills, such as carpenters, electricians, and plumbers, are also less likely to be automated by AI.

It is important to note that the impact of AI on jobs is not binary, and some jobs may not disappear entirely but rather change significantly in terms of their scope and requirements.

In some cases, AI may even create new job opportunities in fields such as robotics, data analysis, and software development.

 

 

Related  Readings :

 

Will ChatGPT take my job ? Here are 20 professions that could be replaced by AI

ChatGPT may be coming for our jobs. Here are the 10 roles that AI is most likely to replace.

Which Jobs Will AI Replace? These 4 Industries Will Be Heavily Impacted

 

My 34 Blogs on ChatBots ( as of 10 Apr 2023 )

 

*Apply for Self – Employment ( * conditions apply )

 

 

*Apply for Self – Employment ( * conditions apply )

 

 

Context :

BMC lists 32K legit hawkers in city; unions demand fresh survey   ………..  HT  / 05 May 2023

Extract :

 

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation’s (BMC) town vending committee (TVC) on Wednesday approved a list of 32,000 hawkers who can carry out their trade. This, members of hawkers’ unions feel, will deprive over a lakh of their livelihood. Eight unions have demanded a fresh survey be conducted and those left out in the cold be allowed to participate in the TVC elections, failing which they will move court.

TVC has the authority to implement the hawker’s policy. It is headed by the civic chief Iqbal Singh Chahal and has representatives from various departments of BMC, MMRDA, traffic, police, members of the hawker association and civil society.

 

Shashank Rao, president, Mumbai Hawkers’ Union encapsulated the street vendors’ voice – that the survey be done according to The Street Vendors (Protection of Livelihood and Regulation of Street Vending) Act, 2014 in which BMC had received more than one lakh application. (See box)

 

“This is unfair as there are over 2.5lakh hawkers in the city and the act says 2.5 percent of the population can be accommodated. Mumbai’s population is 1.4crore,” said Rao. “Over 80 per cent have been ignored. What will happen to their livelihood?”

 

The unions --- Maharashtra Ekta Hawkers’ Union, Mumbai Hawkers’ Union, Azad Hawkers’ Union, Jai Hindustan Hawkers’ Union and four others have given a written representation for a re-survey, failing which it will be termed a mock exercise, benefitting neither the city nor hawkers.

 

Rao called attention to the objective of the act – to regularise hawkers. In the absence of that, money is “spent by way of haftas to the officials”. “They do not want to stop this because they have no other job. There is a major hitch there,” he added.

 

Nawaz Khan, president, Maharashtra Ekta Hawkers’ Union said the act was formulated in 2014 after eight unions pooled in their energies and moved Supreme Court. “The TVC was formed in 2013 and the act formed the next year. The committee was authorised to conduct a survey on hawkers. Today we have a 20-member committee with eight members from hawkers’ union. Blaming the pandemic, Chahal conducted the meeting for the first time on Wednesday.” Khan added BMC charged ₹100 for each form distributed to 1.28 lakh hawkers for the survey, seeking their personal details.

 

The civic body started working on the hawkers’ policy after the Parliament passed the act in 2014. In 2016, the BMC started issuing licences to hawkers, following which a survey of 1,28,444 hawkers was carried out; 99,435 submitted their applications of which only 15,361 hawkers were found eligible in 2019 since the state government had made domicile certificates mandatory for them.

 

The Street Vendors (Protection of livelihood and regulation of street vending) Act, 2014, mandates that the town vending committee (TVC) survey and give licence to those in the business of hawking.

 

In 2014, a survey was conducted to ascertain the number of hawkers in business within the limits of BMC. Many hawkers who have been carrying on their trade for years were not included in the survey – their applications were not accepted.

 

On the other hand, applications of many who were not related to the trade were accepted.

Nine years have gone by since the first survey.

 

TVC is expected to conduct a survey of hawkers every five years.

 

 

MY  TAKE :

 

I presume the rationale behind “ restricting “ the number of “ licensed “ hawkers ( to 2.5 % of Mumbai’s population of 140 lakhs = 3.5 lakh hawkers ) is :

“ The hawkers are permitted to occupy foot-paths, in order to carry on their trade.  Mumbai has strictly limited length ( area ) of foot-paths, which is frozen.  Hence , a limited number of hawkers can be licensed “

This “ condition “ sounds logical

BMC seems to be telling the millions of “ Unemployed “ :

“ Hey guys ,

Get self=employed by all means - but ply your trade INDOORS , not on the STREETS

Look at the INDOOR trades listed at :

Ø  Rejoice , You , Self - Employed !  …………..  15 May 2016  “

---------------------------

 

But the questions that needs to be answered are :

#   As of today , neither any State Government , nor the Central Government, has

     released a “ Policy of Self Employment “

#  Restrictions  imposed , either by a local Municipal Corporation or by a State

    Government , or by a  Housing Society , severely “ limit “ , 

    what kind of a trade / business / profession , can be carried out

   inside of a person’ s home.  

   If violated , police harassment is guaranteed !

#  In the absence of a clear cut law encouraging “ self employment “ ,  are we not

    inviting a huge SOCIAL UNREST , in the months and years to come ?

   

 

I once again urge the Central Government to examine my suggestion at :

 A NEW ECONOMIC ORDER ? aka " Start Up Act - 2015 "  …12 Sept 2015

 

With whatever modifications deemed necessary  to my above-mentioned

suggestion , I urge the Central Government to announce a SELF  EMPLOYMENT

POLICY  , as soon as possible

It does not require a genius to guess ( - and correctly too ) that , in the next 2 /

years, millions of clerical jobs will disappear due to launch of hundreds of “

productivity-enhancing “ apps based on ChatGPT and its cousins

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

www.hemenparekh.ai   /  07 May 2023

 

Related Readings :

 

Ø  Thank You, Shri Sanjog Kabare  ………………………………. 22  Sept  2022

 

Ø   Thank You, Shri Hardeep Singh Puriji………………………. [ 01 June 2020 ]

 

Ø   BMC proposes : Hawkers will dispose ? …………..[ 26 Feb 2020 ]

 

Ø  Street Vendor Loan Scheme ………………………………………….[ 14 May 2020 ]

 

Ø  Eke Out a Living ( aka, “ Papi Pet ke Khatir “ )  ……………. 01 May 2022

Ø   Fresher need not apply ?  ……. ………………………………………09 Sept 2020

 

Ø          Street Vendors : How to Organize ?   ………………………………[ 21 July 2021 ]

 

Ø  Congratulations , Shri Mahesh Kumarji  …………………………[ 20 June 2020 ]

 

Ø  Providing Jobs : a Fundamental Right ?   ……………………….[ 07 June 2020 ]

 

Ø  Social Distancing : Safest – Surest Method  ………………….[ 21 Apr 2020 ]

 

Ø  Unlocking Lockdown : Calibrated – Gradual   ……………………[ 04 Apr 2020 ]