Blog: Unlocking Lockdown : Calibrated

If lockdown is totally lifted on 14th April ( - although not suddenly or surprisingly, since known in advance ), we can expect millions of persons to pour onto the streets within hours

All public places will get jam-packed and every mode of passenger transport will get overwhelmed

It could resemble uncorking of a Champaign bottle ! Eruption of a Volcano with its lid blown off !

If we are smart , we should be scared – very scared – of the consequences of saying ,

“ Goodbye, Social Distancing – Welcome Anti-Social Anarchy ! “

Can we stop such anarchy ? If yes, how ?

Answer :

Ideally , we should render it unnecessary for people to leave their homes . If Mohamed cannot go to Mountain , then Mountain must go to Mohamed !

Mohamed = Members of a family locked down in home

Mountain = Offices / Factories/ Shops / Religious Places / Social Venues/ Edu Inst / Entertainment Places

Although not feasible in each of the above-mentioned cases , wherever possible , people should be enabled to carry-out their “ Interactions – Transactions “ online, with “ Deliveries – Gratifications “ ( of goods or services ) taking place through “ Delivery Persons / Drones “ .

Not only all Commerce should become E Commerce ( with almost everything selling online ) but even all Services should become E-Services

This cannot happen overnight . Even with a very strong determination ( to make

everything Online ), it may take years to arrive anywhere near this goal

What do we do in the meantime (expedient ), to prevent “ Anti Social Intimacy “ ?

Merely announcing a “ PUBLIC PLACES POLICY [ 3P ] “ , won’t suffice

I urge the Governments ( Central + States ) to publicize following :

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Time-table for Gradual Unlocking of Public Places [ TGUPP ]

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Month	Transport	Offices - Banks	Factories-workshops	Shops-Malls	Religious Places	Social Venues	Edu Insti	Entertain Venues
Apr 2020	Bycycles-Trucks-2 Wheelers	< 10 persons	< 5 persons	Only Ecom Cos	None	Home ( < 20 persons )	Coaching Classes ( < 10 )	None
May	Private cars		6 – 25 persons	Medical stores	None	Same as above	Same as above	None
June	Intercity Buses		26-50 persons	Kirana stores	None	Hall ( upto 50 )	10 - 50	None
July	Intercity Trains	< 50	< 100	Veg Mkts	Corner	Hall ( < 100 )	-	-
Aug	Planes	-	< 500	Small Malls	Small	Hall ( < 100 )	-	-
Sept	City Buses	< 100	> 500	-	-	Gardens	Colleges / Hostels	Cinema Halls ( < 200 )
Oct	Ferries	-	-	Medium Malls	Medium	Beaches	-	-
Nov	Metro-Local Trains	100 - 500	-	-	Medium	Resorts	University Campuses	Stadium ( < 500 )
Dec	Cruise Ships	-	-	Large Malls	-	-	-	500-1000
Jan 21	-	500 +	-	-	Large	-	-	1000-5000
Feb					Shirdi-Tirupati			Open Sports Grouds
Mar					Golden Temple
April					Jama Masjid

Notes :

Ø None of the above apply to the following units – establishments - facilities :

# Healthcare facilities engaged in fighting Corona Virus pandemic ( eg : Hospitals /

Nursing Homes / Labs / Moholla Clinic / Clinics of private doctors etc )

# Pharma companies / Bulk Drug Mfrs / Drug Intermediate Mfrs

# Essential services / offices of Governments / Municipalities

# Manufacturers of Medical Equipment / devices

# Courier Companies / Delivery companies

Ø This is only a CONCEPTUAL FRAME – WORK [ Not so ODD after all ! ]

Ø Governments should liberalize / encourage “ self employed “ hawkers / vendors to go from door-to-door, with whatever goods they may be selling(eg:Vegetable Vendors ) They may be encouraged to form a SOCIETY, and launch a portal where people can register their needs

Currently, in Mumbai alone, there are estimated 3 lakh hawkers ( of which, only

12,000 are licensed )

Most of them spread their ware on footpaths. Govt should come out with a scheme

whereby they vacate the spaces on footpaths and load their stuff onto hand-carts (

6’x3’ wooden platforms mounted on 4 bicycle wheels, called RENKDI or LAARY )

which are a familiar sight all over India.

Corporate ( FMCG and others ) will be happy to donate such carts to the

government ( costing approx. Rs 1,000 each ), if they are allowed to host their

product-advts on such carts, permanently. This ( advt ) could be a 12” wide steel

sheet along the 18 feet periphery of the cart

Government may gift / donate such carts to footpath-occupying vendors, and track

their movements through their Mobile Phones . 3 lakh carts will cost Rs 30 crore but

these will roam 1500 km of Mumbai roads / streets, delivering good at door-steps.

Mountain goes to Mohamed !

Ø Figures mentioned in tabulation above ( of number of persons permitted ) , can vary from place to place and over time

Ø Based on guidelines issued by the Central Government, State Home Departments can frame their own timetable and arrange to have it “ Posted / Pasted “ outside each and every Public Place, in a prominent way

Ø What is far more important is to monitor the actual observance of the PUBLIC PLACES RULES , by the establishments concerned. This would require :

# CCTV enabled with Facial Recognition Software

Marriage of Technologies to contain Corona ? Yes !..............[ 15 Mar 2020 ]

# Mobile Apps

Thank You , Shri RaviShankar Prasadji……………………………………[ 02 April 2020 ]

# Mobile-based Attendance System at each entry point

MAD goes to Mandi

# “ E –Summons “ for persons breaking the rules

# Automatic and instant “ Immobilization “ of vehicles flouting the rules

Immobilize the Jumpers ? ……………………………………………………[ 14 Mar 2018 ]

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Mobiles for Tracking Corona Movements ? ………………………[ 23 March 2020 ]

How to convert Temporary into Permanent ?................. [ 19 Mar 2020 ]

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Will such graduated, but prolonged lockdown, have a greater negative impact on our ECONOMY , as compared to bringing it to a quick / definitive END ?

A recent research paper says : NO

[ source : Pandemics Depress the Economy, Public Health

Interventions Do Not: Evidence from the 1918 Flu ]

Highlights :

We find that cities that intervened earlier and more aggressively do not perform worse and, if anything, grow faster after the pandemic is over.

Our findings thus indicate that NPIs [ Non-Pharmaceutical Intervention ie ; Social Distancing ] , not only lower mortality; they also mitigate the adverse economic consequences of a pandemic

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Dear Shri Narendrabhai Modiji,

As advised by you, of course I will switch-on a torch at 9 pm tomorrow evening – which may light up my gallery

But what I have suggested above, is a powerful SEARCH-LIGHT which will light up the entire sky above our beloved country

With regards,

Hemen Parekh