Hopefully, by Dec 2020,
the dust will settle on the Corona Crisis
When that happens, will we see the following ?
Ø End
of Globalization / Resurgence of Protectionism – Economic Self
Isolation
Ø End
of capitalism / Revival
of Socialism
Ø End
of Free Trade ( little imports – lesser exports ) /
Return of high Customs Tariff
Ø End
of Economic Migration / Impossible Naturalization Rules for
Foreigners
Ø End
of Mass Manufacturing / Boost to Home-based Cottage Industry
Ø End
of Salaried Jobs – Annual Increments – Bonuses / Surge
in Self-employment
Ø End
of Office-based work / Beginning of Work
from Home ( WFH )
Ø Cut
back of HIGHLY PAID office staff in RICH countries / Remote
outsourcing to Low Cost Indian professionals working from their homes using
Video Conferencing
Of course, NONE of these will happen immediately or
totally
But have no doubts that ALL of these will happen slowly and partially
Here is my guess how the ECONOMIC LANDSCAPE might look like over the next 3 years for various Businesses / Industries / Economic Activities:
=========================================================
[ A ] Will slowly return to a LOWER LEVEL ( new NORM ) within 1 year
# Tourism ( Domestic / International - except
may be, Medical Tourism ? )
# Airlines
( Domestic / International )
# Hotel – Hospitality Industry
# Public Transport ( Trains – Buses – Ferries –
Metros )
# Oil Industry ( Exploration / Production /
Refining / Distribution )
# Offline
Education ( schools – colleges – coaching classes )
# Outdoor
Entertainment ( cinema halls – sports stadium – venues )
# Outside Eating ( Restaurants – bars etc )
# Offices
# FMCG Industry
# Print News Papers ( - unless morph into “ New
Generation Newspapers “ )
=========================================================
[ B ] Will recover to OLD
LEVELS within 2 / 3 years
# Manufacture of all kinds of
# Construction Industry
# Infrastructure Projects ( could be earlier if
Govt introduces “ Infrastructure
SPV “ )
# Chemical Industry
# Auto Industry ( could be earlier if Govt
implements “ Integrated
Auto Policy “ )
# Consumer Durable Industry
# Malls
=========================================================
[ C ] Will flourish / attain HIGHER LEVELS within 6 months
# Physical Healthcare
Ecosystem ( Hospitals-Nursing Homes – Labs – Clinics etc )
# Isolation facilities ( outside of regular
hospitals ) in Railway coaches / idle flats etc
# Mental Healthcare / Remote
video-based counselling to patients around the world
# Telemedicine ( both Consultation - Drug
Delivery )
# Online Education / Skills
Training / Re-Skilling
# Pharma Industry / Drug Industry ( incl. intermediates ) / Vaccine
Research labs
# Biotechnology
# Manufacture of Test
Kits – PPE – Ventilators – Masks – Disinfection Booths
# Internet
connected Medical Equipment / Devices / Hospital Equipment
# Mobile
Apps and Wearables for Healthcare / Self Diagnosis
# CCTVs – Drones
- Mobile apps for “ Crowd Control / Crowd Surveillance “
# E
Commerce / Kirana Stores ( everything selling online / delivered to homes )
# Mobile-based Banking
# Cyber-Security Services
# Automation
– Robotics related Machineries ( to reduce manpower costs )
# Shared Working Offices
# Health Insurance Industry
# Computer and Internet related electronics
hardware
# Mobile
Phones Manufacture
# Mobile Service Providers/ Internet Service
Providers / Holographic
Conferencing
# Courier Services / Home Delivery Services
# Online streamed entertainment videos / movies
=========================================================
[ D ] Let us use this opportunity
to abolish following industries :
# Cigarettes
– Bidi -Tabacco products - Pan Masala ( and other health-hazards )
========================================================
This is not a comprehensive list . It is not easy to
envisage what impact Covid-19 will have on hundreds of other industries /
economic activities
But one thing is certain . Every industrialist /
businessman will start asking of himself :
Will the economic
re-order brought about by Corona, allow us to survive in the same way we were
before this crisis ?
Do we need to re-invent ourselves ?
If yes, how soon can we start ? “
Another thing which seems equally certain is :
“ If one industry falls on bad times ( eg: right
now,
Mobile Service Providers in India ), then the Government can bail out ( using
tax-payer money ).
But,
when entire economy is headed for a prolonged “ Depression / Recession “, the
least that the Government would need to do , in order to stimulate the economy,
is my following suggestion
( source : Economy :
The Way Back / 08 April 2020 ) :
Ø
For 2020 – 21 , only 50 % of the Personal Income to be taxed for
individual tax payers { Revenue
loss = Rs 3 lakh*Crore }
Ø
For Corporate, 25 % of salaries/wages paid
during July – Aug – Sept , to be borne by Govt
Ø
Amounts of donations made to PM-CARES fund to
be treated towards CSR obligations with provision for carry forward any excess
amount
Ø
No GST for goods sold during July – Aug – Sept ( assuming
production will reach normal level by June end ) { Revenue loss
= Rs 3 lakh*Crore }
Ø Since above-mentioned benefits will
drain the government exchequer, leaving very little funds for planned
Infrastructure, I strongly urge the Government to issue ELEPHANT
BONDS , with modifications as described at :
Congratulations, Shri Surjit Bhallaji, [ 31 Oct 2019 ]
And above all :
Governments (
Central + States ) must divert funds earmarked for DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS to
alleviating the miseries of poor people
I do not expect any politician or economist to have the
courage to tell the citizen that we have to learn to LIVE WITH LESS !
With regards,
Hemen Parekh / hcp@RecruitGuru.com
18 April
2020
=========================================================
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