Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Wednesday, 1 April 2020

Not so ODD after all !




You may also call it :  

How to return to “ Abnormal “ when lockdown gets lifted


What seems currently abnormal is going to be the “ New  Normal “

Let us start with an example with which, we are somewhat familiar

For last 2 years, in order to reduce pollution caused by dense / congested traffic, Delhi government has experimented with the ODD-EVEN rule for vehicles. It has worked – though partially

In order to reduce spread of Corona Virus, we have a lockdown to reduce “ Congestion-Crowding “ of people in public places [ - the new name being “ Social Distancing “ ]

Now, we know that as soon as  lock-down gets lifted, millions of people will rush out of their homes and the streets / shops / gardens / beaches / offices / factories etc will be flooded with people

Can’t blame them for wanting to return to , what they have always considered a  “ Normal “ behavior

That will mean all kinds of passenger transport vehicles will get jam-packed like sardines – private cars / city-buses / interstate buses / metros / local trains / intercity trains / planes / taxies / rickshaws / ferries / cruise ships etc

The behavioral pendulum will swing from one [ abnormal ] extreme to another [ normal ] extreme

Such explosive “ Return to Normal “ could prove disastrous [ consequences with unknown risks ? ]

I urge the authorities to “ swing the pendulum slowly , gradually “

Here are a few suggestions ( not mutually exclusive / can be combinations ) :

=====================================================================================

[ A ]    TRANSPORT

Ø   Odd / Even for all passenger vehicles ( with usual exemption for Police / Ambulance etc )

Ø   Each vehicle ( includes planes ) to carry no more than 50 % of capacity.

This is easier said than done , considering millions of vehicles / thousands of transport operators

But, if each passenger seat is numbered , then one method is to sell ODD numbered seats on ODD days and EVEN numbered seats on EVEN days.

But then there are vehicles where passengers get in ( board ) first and then buy their tickets ( like BEST buses in Mumbai ) . How can a passenger waiting at a bus-stop be prevented from getting onto a bus ?

Can we match the mobile number of the passenger with the Vehicle License Plate number of the bus and allow embarkation based on match ? – ODD mobile no gets on ODD numbered bus and EVEN mobile no gets on EVEN numbered bus ?

With his mobile camera, waiting passenger takes a photo of the License Plate as the bus approaches bus stop. GREEN dot appears ( on photo ) if there is a match - RED dot for mis-match

Conductor does not allow mis-matched passengers to board !

=====================================================================================

[ B ]  ….  OFFICES

Ø  In rotation , 50 % of the employees to work in office and balance 50 % from home ( WFH )

Ø  5 day week ( currently prevalent ) to become a 6 day week ( to distribute work-load evenly )

Ø  Staggered work-hours through Flexi-timings [ from 7 am to 10 pm / shift working in offices ? ]

Ø  Change over from Bometric Attendnce System to Mobile-based Attndance System . Read :

           MAD goes to Mandi       [  02 Jan 2020 ]


Ø  Split up large office campuses ( employing thousands in close proximity ) into several small offices , spread across a city or a State or entire country


Ø  Greater use of VPN / Video Meetings , to cut down on face-to-face meetings


================================================================================

 

[ C ] ….. FACTORIES


Ø  Greater sub-contracting ( outsourcing ) to reduce manpower in one shed


Ø  Grater mechanization / automation

             [ Both these steps will reduce employment but that seems inevitable ! ]


Ø  Outsourcing of simple components / assemblies could be considered for employees willing to retire earlier ( than stipulated age of 58 ) . They may be given monetary assistance ( loans at ZERO interest rates ), to set up small work-shops . Raw materials to be supplied by Employer company


Ø  Big factories themselves may breakup into smaller, geographically dispersed locations


================================================================================


[ D ] ….  SHOPS – MALLS


Ø  Already people are standing ( 2 M apart ) in long queues outside shops , with some large shops admitting only 5 persons at a time . This practice would need to be continued in future


Ø  Drone-based deliveries need to be accelerated as described in :

             MA = DA x 4,000,000 ?                            [ 17 July 2018 ]


Ø  Already some shops are permitted to remain open 24 hours. More will need to do so


Ø  Govt will be forced to relax rules / regulations governing E-commerce , so that people do not need to leave their homes for shopping


=========================================================


[ E ] …. RELIGIOUS PLACES


Ø  Limits will need to be fixed for number of devotees that can gather together at a time ( eg : Aarti – Namaaz – Discourses – Shivirs etc ). For such occasions, there will be “ No Standing “ but only chairs kept 2 M apart


Ø  Installations of CCTV to grant “ Video Darshan “ to devotees from outside the place


Ø  Greater use of Online darshan/participation through singing, using video mobile apps


=========================================================


[ F ] …. SOCIAL CEREMONIES [ Marriage – Funeral – Prayer Meetings etc ]


Ø  More and more of these will disappear gradually ! Only announcements will be made using WhatsApp etc. E-Invites / E-Congratulations / E-Condolences , will replace face to face gatherings . Convenience will triumph over convention !

=========================================================


[ G ] …. EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS ( Schools – Colleges etc )

 

Ø  To reduce the number of students sitting in one class-room, many more class-rooms will require to be added , resulting in massive expansion of capacity / teachers


Ø  Institutions will be required to work in 4 shifts of 6 hours each


Ø  There will be a huge shift towards Online Education, by Institutions themselves


Ø  A few years down the line, not only Video-based impartation of teaching will happen but VIRTUAL CLASSROOMS ( using holographic projections ) can take place in each home


Ø  Many start-ups will launch Mobile Apps for teaching subjects


Ø  To know how AR / VR headsets will change the rules of Online Training, read :


          Congratulations , Anilbhai Naik                                      [ 08 Feb 2019 ]

 

     Extract :

 

                Convert every existing establishment ( factory / office / shop / open yard  ) into a
                Training Centre

                  Remove all restrictions as outlined in my above-mentioned suggestions

             Enable the unemployed youth ( 12 million / year ) to acquire online training from their
            homes , using government-gifted VR headsets [ much cheaper than granting
            Unemployment Allowance of Rs 3000 pm ( Rajasthan ) / Rs 1000 ( Andhra ) / many
            other States )

             Subsidize Start Ups ( operating in the field of online Education ) to develop VR based
            training modules

==========================================================


[ H ]  ENTERTAINMENT ( Cinema Halls / Sports Stadium / Music Halls etc )


Ø  Here as well , SOCIAL DISTANCING rule should continue to apply, with drastic reduction in number of viewers admitted for a given show / event


Ø  Between any two viewers, 4 seats would need to be kept vacant ( 20 % occupancy )


Ø  Govt should grant permits to event organizers to steam such events LIVE on TV or Internet , by collecting subscriptions ( event-wise or month-wise )

=========================================================


[ J ] ..  PUBLIC  PLACE  POLICY ( 3P )


Ø  For Public Places ( wherever feasible ) , Govt must insist that the place owners / tenants / occupiers / Municipalities etc . shall prominently display following board outside the premises :


          #  This public place has a “ Occupancy Capacity “ of ( say ) 200 persons , seated on

              Chairs


          #  As per current Govt Orders , no more than ( say ) 50 persons shall occupy this

              Place


          #  No person , who is not allotted a specific SEAT NUMBER in advance , will be

               allowed to enter this place


          #   As and when the Govt issues fresh / revised orders, same shall be displayed here

              , stating the date applicable


=======================================================

[ K ] ….CAUTION :


Ø  The 6 ft ( 2 Meter ) SOCIAL DISTANCING norm itself may get revised by WHO , based on following research report :


          MIT PROFESSOR: GUIDELINES TO STAY SIX FEET APART AREN’T ENOUGH 


            Extract :

        #  In fact, the science that the six-foot rule is based on, came out nearly 90 years ago.


        #  The Boston Globe reports, is that people can expel viruses through regular

              exhalations. They don’t need to have sneezed to be spreading the pandemic.



         #    The second is that the virus can be spread through gas clouds people expel when they
           cough or sneeze, not just the visible droplets that the six-foot rule seeks to avoid. 


And
           those gas clouds can send a virus as far as 27 feet under optimal conditions.

---------------------------


How large a gathering is too large during the coronavirus pandemic?



==========================================================

What I have mentioned above are only my SUGGESTIONS


These are NOT fool-proof , tried and tested , SOLUTIONS , on how to unwind gradually after lifting of lockdown


But, ( as happened in the case of MIGRANT WORKERS exodus from Delhi ), it is not possible to , indefinitely keep waiting / keep analyzing / keep guessing , as to “ what will happen if I do this or don’t do this ? “



Dear Shri Narendrabhai / Dr Harsh Vardhanji ,



We still have 12 days ( until 14th April ) to frame the rules ( suggested above )

If a few things don’t work out well , we can always make a “ Course Correction “


From USA / EU , we have proof of what “ Indecisions “ can cost in terms of lost lives



With regards,

Hemen Parekh


========================================================
02 April  2020
hcp@RecruitGuru.com

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