More than one Solution

Economic Times ( 27 April 2017 ), carries following editorial :

Selling electric vehicles without batteries: A model to make e-buses viable

The proposal to sell electric vehicles without batteries, relying instead on leasing the crucial component, could well be the policy push that could help shift the transport sector away from fossil fuels.

This policy innovation will make electric vehicles cheaper by as much as 70% without resorting to subsidies.

The decision to start off with the public transport, specifically city buses, is a good scaled-up pilot, allowing government to absorb initial infrastructure costs, and provides an opportunity to tweak the system to meet local requirements.

While the pace of innovation and improvement in battery technology is rapid, it is not enough to push prices down to a level that would induce a wholesale shift from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles.

A model based on leasing of batteries, with accessible options for swapping discharged batteries at convenient points along the bus routes, is what is required.

Quality, predictability of service and the requisite infrastructure to ensure availability of batteries would need to be ensured.

At the same time, this model will need to be financially viable to ensure that a sizeable number of companies provide leasing, swapping and recharging facilities.

The drive to popularise electric vehicles should not give rise to new monopolies.

But making electric vehicles less expensive cannot be the sole aim of this programme.

 Lower cost will guarantee an expansion in the market, and this should not become captive to the industry that will emerge around battery leasing.

The government needs to ensure that the financial relief, and the expansion of the market, becomes an incentive for Indian institutions and companies to invest in research, development and innovation in battery technology.

Make in India must happen in power storage as well.

Apart from “ leasing / swapping “ of batteries ( with each “ Petrol Filling Station “ becoming a  “ Battery Swapping Stations “ ? ) , here are other alternatives :

·         INDUCTION POWER TRANSFER ( IPT )

Electric buses in Italy are being recharged at bus stops while passengers get on and off . The electric vehicle industry has adapted induction power transfer ( IPT ) so cars can be charged wirelessly without a typical charging infrastructure

Instead of one huge meal for breakfast, these buses munch on electricity hundreds of times a day

Wireless charging essentially untethers electric vehicles . Because they are replenished many times a day, they can use a smaller battery

{ Source : “ Clean Disruption “ by Tony Seba / pg: 109 }

If , for umpteen reasons ,  Bus Companies cannot embed wireless charging plates into the roads ( at each bus stop ) , it is certainly possible to do so at Bus Depots where buses get parked .

Bus Depots , themselves will be covered with Solar Panels and store the generated power in PowerPack Storage units ( of TESLA ), for wireless charging of buses at night

·         SPARE BATTERIES

     Not only are batteries getting smaller , they are getting ever more powerful

     And in two years ( at the most ) , we will have batteries that can be recharged in

     5 minutes – faster than it takes to fill up a petrol tank !

     Today , most vehicles carry a “ spare “ tyre . Tomorrow , they will carry “ spare “

     Batteries

·         EACH HOME – A CHARGING STATION

Do not rule out Manoj Bhargava ( BillionsinChange ) coming out with his next generation ( V 2.0 ) electricity generating bicycle to be able to re-charge such small / quickly rechargeable batteries , right in your garage or housing society compound !

·         PEDAL YOUR WAY TO HEALTH

 As a part of a strategy to generate additional revenues , expect GYM owners to install BillionsinChange bicycles replacing regular tread-mills – allowing any stranger ( not a regular customer ) to generate electricity while improving their health !  without paying fees / subscription !

29  April  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

Horoscope of a Nation ?

DNA ( 25  April  2017  ) carries a news report as follows :

“ Niti aayog envisions houses , vehicles , ACs for all by year 2032  “

The government think tank Niti Aayog has envisaged a new India in which all citizens in 15 years will have houses with toilets , two wheelers or cars , power , air conditioners and digital connectivity

“ The India 2031-32 : Vision , Strategy and Action Agenda “ , also visualises a fully literate society with universal access to health care

It also called for having a much larger and modern network of roads , railways , waterways , and air connectivity and a clean India where citizens would have access to quality air and water

It envisioned that per capita income would increase three-fold to Rs 3.14 lakh in 2031-32 from Rs 1.06 lakh in 2015-16

“ We must transform India into a prosperous , healthy , secure , corruption-free , energy abundant , environmentally clean and globally influential nation “ , the presentation said

Readers are requested to interpret  this  VISION  DOCUMENT  in terms of my following

note , dated  04 May 2008 :

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Horoscope  & Other ( Equally Fictitious )  Stories

Most People live on, on eternal hope of a better tomorrow- even those whose “ past / present ” has been quite good.


 So, you cannot blame those whose “ past / present ” is not-so-good, to yearn for a better tomorrow.

And that makes everyone anxious to “know” what future holds for them.

This human tendency/ weakness is the “ Fundamental ” on which the business of astrologers & futurologists thrives.

And what technique do these forecasters employ to predict people’s future ?

They rely on “ Theory of Probability. ”

They know that “events” recur with regularity – except that some events occur with greater regularity than some others.

Some events have a greater probability of occurrence than some others.

No one may have taken the trouble to accurately compute the “ frequency of occurrence ( probability) ” of each type of event, in advance.

But every event is likely to occur in near future or distant future ( if probability is low).

E.g.

For certain events you can “ predict ” their occurrence TOMORROW with a probability of 0.99, such as

·         A dacoit / murder in the city

·         A bus-accident

·         A boat capsizing etc.

Whereas, probability of a Political leader getting assassinated TOMORROW will be a very low, 0.001 ,

But probability of one such assassination taking place within next 10 years, goes up to 0.9.

So, there are 3 dimensions to an event viz ;

·         Type  / Nature of event

·         Time period within which it will happen

·         To whom it will happen / affect.

Now examine :

Ø  TYPE / NATURE OF EVENT :-

Practically, these can run into thousands.

Ø  TIME-PERIOD / PERIODICITY / FREQUENCY :-

An event can happen tomorrow or it can happen after one month or after 10 years or a century.

Ø  PERSON AFFECTED :-

There are 6 billion humans on this earth.

Now, if you multiply these 3 dimensions, you have literally TRILLIONS &

 TRILLIONS of combinations, with a “ Probability ” attached to each !

This is what , makes “ predicting of future ” so easy !

·         Something or Else ( event)

is likely to happen to,

·         Someone or Else ( Person)

At

·         Sometime or other ( Time)

As long as you make your PREDICTION sufficiently VAGUE / GENERAL, in respect of

Ø  An Individual

Ø  A given time-period

Ø  Precise nature ( of what will happen),

You are safe  !

You just cannot be faulted !

BECAUSE, WHAT YOU HAVE JUST PREDICTED , IS BOUND TO HAPPEN , SOMETIME OR OTHER TO SOMEONE OR OTHER !

Now if something that is vaguely resembling what was predicted, does actually happen to even 5 % of the people who “ read” your prediction, their confidence / faith in your ability to predict future sky-rockets !

They start believing that you have some God-given, magical powers to predict future ( did it not come true for them ? )

Then these 5 % spread the word ( word-of-month) about your magical powers.

And the remaining 95% for whom, the “ Prediction” did not come true,

Ø  Either forget that they ever read the prediction  OR

Ø  Believe that it was not “ meant” for them ,  OR

Ø  Hope that your tomorrow’s prediction (about them ) will come true ( the flame of eternal hope, keeps burning in their hearts – the hope for a better tomorrow ).

But these 95 % never go out and tell anybody that things did not happen as predicted !

They don’t want to look silly !

They don’t want to appear to be superstitious persons, believing in unscientific, irrational predictions !

So only the good-word spreads. 



Only the “positive” stories spread.

So each such story, brings in more & more person to look-up morning newspaper to  see, what future holds for them.

Forgotten within 5 minutes but remembered if something ( vaguely) similar did happen by the end of the day.


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27  April  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

A Blue Print for VotesApp ?

Some 4 years back . I had suggested that we , in India , switch-over to voting in Lok Sabha election , using a mobile app , viz:

VotesApp  ( 18 Dec 2012 )

{ http://www.hemenparekh.in/2013/08/votesapp.html#.WP3WqNKGPcc }

Following research paper ( 03 March 2016 ) , submitted by two researchers in Philippines , not only proves that this is entirely possible but provides a detailed Blue Print ( including User Interfaces for such a mobile app –uncannily similar to what I had described in VotesApp ! )

Philippines Smart App Voting System a Mobile Voting System

{ https://www.ijarcsse.com/docs/papers/Volume_6/3_March2016/V6I3-01301.pdf }

You can also look up this paper at :  www.ijarcsse.com ( Past Issues / 2016 / Vol 613  )

Reinforcing my suggestion , a  TV episode on BBC  ( bbc.click / 23 April 2017 )

{ http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/n3ct2k8z  },

show-cased a similar Mobile based Voting App developed by a UK company / www.Smartmatic.com  / whose chairman , Mark Malloch-Brown says :

“ Governments and International Organizations alone cannot build the future we need . Citizen participation is key to complete the equation “

Smartmatic web site claims :

Seven world records

Including the world’s largest automated elections, the first to feature paper receipts, the first to feature biometrically-activated voting sessions – and the world’s fastest voter registration project using biometrics.

Then there is Institute for Digital Democracy 

  (https://webrootsdemocracy.org/2017/04/21/online-voting-movements-in-ireland/ ),

which is working for Online Voting in Ireland

A tiny country Estonia introduced Online Voting , way back in 2005 !

Not only for National Elections but also for local elections .

For details , read ,

{ https://nvvb.nl/media/cms_page_media/758/11%20P.%20Vinkel%20Internet%20Voting.pdf }

 I-voting Main Principles :

• All major principles of paper-voting are followed

• Voting from any computer connected to the Internet

• Alternative to the paper-ballot

• Digital voter register based on population register

• Voter's identification with eID

• Virtual double envelope scheme

• Public-private key cryptography

•  Virtual voting booth

As for the benefits / savings / revenue-generating potential of VotesApp , do look up :

·         ReformingElections and Lok Sabha  ( 20  Dec  2016  )

      { https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/12/reforming-elections-and-lok-sabha-real.html }

When I think why a Software Super Power such as India is shying away from this epoch-making reform , I am reminded of what Winston Churchill said in his radio broadcast in Oct 1939 :

“ I cannot forecast to you the action of Russia. It is a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma ; but perhaps there is a key. That key is Russian national interest."

When will our 800 + million voters tell the politicians :

“ VotesApp is the KEY to our national self interest . In 2019 national elections , we will not vote in any other way “

26  April  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs