Not so ODD after all !

You may also call it :  

How to return to “ Abnormal “ when lockdown gets lifted

What seems currently abnormal is going to be the “ New  Normal “

Let us start with an example with which, we are somewhat familiar

For last 2 years, in order to reduce pollution caused by dense / congested traffic, Delhi government has experimented with the ODD-EVEN rule for vehicles. It has worked – though partially

In order to reduce spread of Corona Virus, we have a lockdown to reduce “ Congestion-Crowding “ of people in public places [ - the new name being “ Social Distancing “ ]

Now, we know that as soon as  lock-down gets lifted, millions of people will rush out of their homes and the streets / shops / gardens / beaches / offices / factories etc will be flooded with people

Can’t blame them for wanting to return to , what they have always considered a  “ Normal “ behavior

That will mean all kinds of passenger transport vehicles will get jam-packed like sardines – private cars / city-buses / interstate buses / metros / local trains / intercity trains / planes / taxies / rickshaws / ferries / cruise ships etc

The behavioral pendulum will swing from one [ abnormal ] extreme to another [ normal ] extreme

Such explosive “ Return to Normal “ could prove disastrous [ consequences with unknown risks ? ]

I urge the authorities to “ swing the pendulum slowly , gradually “

Here are a few suggestions ( not mutually exclusive / can be combinations ) :

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[ A ]  …  TRANSPORT

Ø   Odd / Even for all passenger vehicles ( with usual exemption for Police / Ambulance etc )

Ø   Each vehicle ( includes planes ) to carry no more than 50 % of capacity.

This is easier said than done , considering millions of vehicles / thousands of transport operators

But, if each passenger seat is numbered , then one method is to sell ODD numbered seats on ODD days and EVEN numbered seats on EVEN days.

But then there are vehicles where passengers get in ( board ) first and then buy their tickets ( like BEST buses in Mumbai ) . How can a passenger waiting at a bus-stop be prevented from getting onto a bus ?

Can we match the mobile number of the passenger with the Vehicle License Plate number of the bus and allow embarkation based on match ? – ODD mobile no gets on ODD numbered bus and EVEN mobile no gets on EVEN numbered bus ?

With his mobile camera, waiting passenger takes a photo of the License Plate as the bus approaches bus stop. GREEN dot appears ( on photo ) if there is a match - RED dot for mis-match

Conductor does not allow mis-matched passengers to board !

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[ B ]  ….  OFFICES

Ø  In rotation , 50 % of the employees to work in office and balance 50 % from home ( WFH )

Ø  5 day week ( currently prevalent ) to become a 6 day week ( to distribute work-load evenly )

Ø  Staggered work-hours through Flexi-timings [ from 7 am to 10 pm / shift working in offices ? ]

Ø  Change over from Bometric Attendnce System to Mobile-based Attndance System . Read :

           MAD goes to Mandi       [  02 Jan 2020 ]

Ø  Split up large office campuses ( employing thousands in close proximity ) into several small offices , spread across a city or a State or entire country

Ø  Greater use of VPN / Video Meetings , to cut down on face-to-face meetings

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[ C ] ….. FACTORIES

Ø  Greater sub-contracting ( outsourcing ) to reduce manpower in one shed

Ø  Grater mechanization / automation

             [ Both these steps will reduce employment but that seems inevitable ! ]

Ø  Outsourcing of simple components / assemblies could be considered for employees willing to retire earlier ( than stipulated age of 58 ) . They may be given monetary assistance ( loans at ZERO interest rates ), to set up small work-shops . Raw materials to be supplied by Employer company

Ø  Big factories themselves may breakup into smaller, geographically dispersed locations

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[ D ] ….  SHOPS – MALLS

Ø  Already people are standing ( 2 M apart ) in long queues outside shops , with some large shops admitting only 5 persons at a time . This practice would need to be continued in future

Ø  Drone-based deliveries need to be accelerated as described in :

             MA = DA x 4,000,000 ?                            [ 17 July 2018 ]

Ø  Already some shops are permitted to remain open 24 hours. More will need to do so

Ø  Govt will be forced to relax rules / regulations governing E-commerce , so that people do not need to leave their homes for shopping

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[ E ] …. RELIGIOUS PLACES

Ø  Limits will need to be fixed for number of devotees that can gather together at a time ( eg : Aarti – Namaaz – Discourses – Shivirs etc ). For such occasions, there will be “ No Standing “ but only chairs kept 2 M apart

Ø  Installations of CCTV to grant “ Video Darshan “ to devotees from outside the place

Ø  Greater use of Online darshan/participation through singing, using video mobile apps

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[ F ] …. SOCIAL CEREMONIES [ Marriage – Funeral – Prayer Meetings etc ]

Ø  More and more of these will disappear gradually ! Only announcements will be made using WhatsApp etc. E-Invites / E-Congratulations / E-Condolences , will replace face to face gatherings . Convenience will triumph over convention !

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[ G ] …. EDUCATIONAL INSTITUTIONS ( Schools – Colleges etc )

 

Ø  To reduce the number of students sitting in one class-room, many more class-rooms will require to be added , resulting in massive expansion of capacity / teachers

Ø  Institutions will be required to work in 4 shifts of 6 hours each

Ø  There will be a huge shift towards Online Education, by Institutions themselves

Ø  A few years down the line, not only Video-based impartation of teaching will happen but VIRTUAL CLASSROOMS ( using holographic projections ) can take place in each home

Ø  Many start-ups will launch Mobile Apps for teaching subjects

Ø  To know how AR / VR headsets will change the rules of Online Training, read :

          Congratulations , Anilbhai Naik                                      [ 08 Feb 2019 ]

 

     Extract :

 

                Convert every existing establishment ( factory / office / shop / open yard  ) into a

                Training Centre

                  Remove all restrictions as outlined in my above-mentioned suggestions

             Enable the unemployed youth ( 12 million / year ) to acquire online training from their

            homes , using government-gifted VR headsets [ much cheaper than granting

            Unemployment Allowance of Rs 3000 pm ( Rajasthan ) / Rs 1000 ( Andhra ) / many

            other States )

             Subsidize Start Ups ( operating in the field of online Education ) to develop VR based

            training modules

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[ H ]  … ENTERTAINMENT ( Cinema Halls / Sports Stadium / Music Halls etc )

Ø  Here as well , SOCIAL DISTANCING rule should continue to apply, with drastic reduction in number of viewers admitted for a given show / event

Ø  Between any two viewers, 4 seats would need to be kept vacant ( 20 % occupancy )

Ø  Govt should grant permits to event organizers to steam such events LIVE on TV or Internet , by collecting subscriptions ( event-wise or month-wise )

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[ J ] ..  PUBLIC  PLACE  POLICY ( 3P )

Ø  For Public Places ( wherever feasible ) , Govt must insist that the place owners / tenants / occupiers / Municipalities etc . shall prominently display following board outside the premises :

          #  This public place has a “ Occupancy Capacity “ of ( say ) 200 persons , seated on

              Chairs

          #  As per current Govt Orders , no more than ( say ) 50 persons shall occupy this

              Place

          #  No person , who is not allotted a specific SEAT NUMBER in advance , will be

               allowed to enter this place

          #   As and when the Govt issues fresh / revised orders, same shall be displayed here

              , stating the date applicable

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[ K ] ….CAUTION :

Ø  The 6 ft ( 2 Meter ) SOCIAL DISTANCING norm itself may get revised by WHO , based on following research report :

          MIT PROFESSOR: GUIDELINES TO STAY SIX FEET APART AREN’T ENOUGH 

            Extract :

        #  In fact, the science that the six-foot rule is based on, came out nearly 90 years ago.

        #  The Boston Globe reports, is that people can expel viruses through regular

              exhalations. They don’t need to have sneezed to be spreading the pandemic.

         #    The second is that the virus can be spread through gas clouds people expel when they

           cough or sneeze, not just the visible droplets that the six-foot rule seeks to avoid. 

And

           those gas clouds can send a virus as far as 27 feet under optimal conditions.

---------------------------

How large a gathering is too large during the coronavirus pandemic?

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What I have mentioned above are only my SUGGESTIONS

These are NOT fool-proof , tried and tested , SOLUTIONS , on how to unwind gradually after lifting of lockdown

But, ( as happened in the case of MIGRANT WORKERS exodus from Delhi ), it is not possible to , indefinitely keep waiting / keep analyzing / keep guessing , as to “ what will happen if I do this or don’t do this ? “

Dear Shri Narendrabhai / Dr Harsh Vardhanji ,

We still have 12 days ( until 14^th April ) to frame the rules ( suggested above )

If a few things don’t work out well , we can always make a “ Course Correction “

From USA / EU , we have proof of what “ Indecisions “ can cost in terms of lost lives

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

========================================================

02 April  2020

hcp@RecruitGuru.com

Corona Patient Case Histories : a Fragmented Database

By now, possibly 1,000 persons are being given Corona Virus Test every day, in more than 100 + laboratories around India

At the minimum, this comprises of a Swab test from nose / throat . Some labs may be even insisting on a Blood Test

All labs must be getting the ( suspected ) patient to fill in some paper form – then ( most likely ) entering that data into a computer

I presume, these labs are required to transmit that “ Patient Case History “ ( of course electronically – I suppose using E Mail ? ), to some government authority , with ( possibly ) copies to local State Government Health Ministry and to local Municipal Corporation

It is quite possible that each lab has its own distinct / different FORM ( whether paper or electronic )

Each form may have different  DATA  FIELDS

Each lab may be sending it to different  AUTHORITIES , who store it in its own DATA-BASES ( silos ? )

Such fragmentation ( of patient data ) is highly undesirable. There is urgent need to STANDARDIZE as follows :

[ A ]…… Patient Data Form

Ø  Patient Full Name  /  Contact Data ( mobile no + Email Id , wherever available ) / Aadhar Number ( mandatory – to be issued on the spot, if unavailable ) / Current Address / Home Address ( in case of migrant workers ) / Birth Date / Sex / 

  

Ø  Date of registration / Current Symptoms /  Past History  /  Initial readings of temperature-BP etc

Ø  Details of Family Members ( staying together or elsewhere )

Ø  Details of recent travels ( local or foreign )

Ø  Tests administered ( Covid – Blood – Urine etc ) and their results

Ø  Name / Registration Number of Family Doctor ( or Healthcare Centre frequented )

[ B ] ….. Laboratory

Ø  Name of lab / Address / Registration Number / CMO Name / Certified for which tests

Ø  Name and Registration Number of doctor / technician who administered tests

[ C ] ….. Authorities

Ø  Names of Authorities to whom Patient Case History ( including test results ) has to be transmitted ( Instructions for uploading on the web sites of those authorities )

[ D ]  …. Quarantine

Ø  If advised quarantine , what type ? (  Home isolation or Govt Hospital )

Ideally , all of the above-mentioned data must be filled in ONLINE ( from a desktop or from a Mobile App to be launched by Central Ministry of Health and Family Welfare – Dr Harsh Vardhanji ) by the laboratory concerned

All data will flow into a SINGLE , CENTRAL DATA-BASE of  Health History of Indian Citizen

This database should be made accessible as follows :

Ø  Specified “ Health-care  Authorities “ in an anonymized / aggregated manner

Ø  Specified “ Doctors / Labs “ , with names of only those patients who were treated by them ( including Family Doctor )

A “ standardization / uniformity / protocol “ of the type described above will help in making available to Healthcare Authorities, COMPUTERISED  DECISION  MAKING SUPPORT , as described in my following earlier blog / email :

=========================================================

Health Data Vault                                                                        [ 16 June 2019 ]

Extract :

“ All the Health Data of all 50 crore beneficiaries to be stored on a Central Server for BIG DATA analysis , in order to “ Predict “ WHO might become susceptible to WHICH ailment and WHEN  “

========================================================

Modicare : A Game Changer                                                        [ 01 Feb 2018 ]

Extract :

Medicalchain, on the other hand, uses blockchain technology to store and share health records securely, allowing for easy and safe transfer of information between providers and patients.

=========================================================

Digital Delivery of Drugs                                                                 [ 11 Oct 2015 ]

Extract :

WHO ( which doctor ) , prescribed  WHAT drug ( drug name ) made by WHO (

name of drug manufacturer ) , to WHOM  (patient name ) , and WHY ( disease

diagnosis ) , and WHEN ( date ) and sold by WHICH ( drug store )

=========================================================

Healthcare : The Unfolding Story                                                       [ 19  June  2018 ]

 

Extract :

 

Using such massive data base, can BIG DATA / Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning ,

figure out what " Customized healthcare / Medical treatment / Supplementary diet "

should be " prescribed " for each human on this earth ?

=========================================================

Will “ Ayushman Bharat “ listen ?                                                          [ 14  Nov  2018 ]

 

Extract :

 

When that happens , expect the AI to do the following :

      #   Offer Customized healthcare / Medical treatment / Supplementary diet

      #    Guide your family doctor to prescribe the best-suited medicine for each member of

            Your family

     #    Recommend some “ preventive “ medicines before a disease manifests itself !

 

=========================================================

 

Dear Dr Harsh Vardhanji,

 

Country is grateful to you – and to the officers of your Ministry – for handling the Corona Crisis , so imaginatively

 

Every grey cloud has a “ Silver  Lining  “

 

Through this email , I urge you to seize the opportunity presented by this grey cloud of Corona

 

Please consider :

 

Ø  A Standard Data-base Form for ALL the labs of India and for all types of testing ( and not only those which are currently engaged in testing for Covid-19 testing )

 

Ø  Creation of a SINGLE / CENTRAL  HEALTH  DATABASE for entire country

 

Ø  Launch of Mobile Apps suggested

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

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31  March  2020

hcp@RecruitGuru.com