DNA ( 25 April
2017 ) carries a news report as
follows :
“ Niti aayog envisions houses , vehicles
, ACs for all by year 2032 “
The government think tank Niti Aayog has envisaged a new India in
which all citizens in 15 years will have houses with toilets , two wheelers or
cars , power , air conditioners and digital connectivity
“ The India
2031-32 : Vision , Strategy and Action Agenda “ , also visualises a
fully literate society with universal access to health care
It also called for having a much larger
and modern network of roads , railways , waterways , and air connectivity and a
clean India where citizens would have access to quality air and water
It envisioned that per capita income
would increase three-fold to Rs 3.14 lakh in 2031-32 from Rs 1.06 lakh in
2015-16
“ We must
transform India into a prosperous , healthy , secure , corruption-free , energy
abundant , environmentally clean and globally influential nation “ , the
presentation said
Readers
are requested to interpret this VISION DOCUMENT in terms of my
following
note
, dated 04 May 2008 :
-------------------------------------------------------
Horoscope
& Other ( Equally Fictitious ) Stories
Most People live on, on eternal hope of a better tomorrow- even those whose “ past / present ” has been quite good.
So, you cannot blame those whose “ past / present ” is not-so-good, to yearn for a better tomorrow.
So, you cannot blame those whose “ past / present ” is not-so-good, to yearn for a better tomorrow.
And that makes
everyone anxious to “know” what future holds for them.
This human tendency/ weakness is the “ Fundamental ” on which the
business of astrologers & futurologists thrives.
And what technique do these forecasters employ to predict people’s
future ?
They rely on “ Theory of Probability. ”
They know that “events” recur with
regularity – except that some events occur with greater regularity than some
others.
Some events have a greater probability of
occurrence than some others.
No one may have taken the trouble to
accurately compute the “ frequency of occurrence ( probability) ” of each type
of event, in advance.
But every event is likely to occur in near future or distant future
( if probability is low).
E.g.
For certain events you can “ predict ” their occurrence TOMORROW
with a probability of 0.99, such as
·
A dacoit / murder in the city
·
A bus-accident
·
A boat capsizing etc.
Whereas, probability of a Political
leader getting assassinated TOMORROW will be a very low, 0.001 ,
But probability of one such assassination taking place within
next 10 years, goes up to 0.9.
So, there are 3 dimensions to an event viz ;
·
Type / Nature of event
·
Time period within which it will happen
·
To whom it will happen /
affect.
Now examine :
Ø
TYPE / NATURE OF EVENT :-
Practically, these
can run into thousands.
Ø
TIME-PERIOD / PERIODICITY / FREQUENCY :-
An event can happen tomorrow or it can happen after one month or
after 10 years or a century.
Ø
PERSON AFFECTED :-
There are 6 billion
humans on this earth.
Now, if you
multiply these 3 dimensions, you have literally TRILLIONS &
TRILLIONS of combinations, with a “
Probability ” attached to each !
This is what , makes “ predicting of future ” so easy !
·
Something or Else ( event)
is
likely to happen to,
·
Someone or Else ( Person)
At
·
Sometime or other ( Time)
As long as you make your PREDICTION sufficiently VAGUE / GENERAL,
in respect of
Ø
An Individual
Ø
A given time-period
Ø Precise nature ( of what will happen),
You are safe !
You just cannot be faulted !
BECAUSE,
WHAT YOU HAVE JUST PREDICTED , IS BOUND TO HAPPEN , SOMETIME OR OTHER TO
SOMEONE OR OTHER !
Now if something that is vaguely resembling what was predicted,
does actually happen to even 5 % of the people who “ read” your prediction,
their confidence / faith in your ability to predict future sky-rockets !
They start believing that you have some God-given, magical powers
to predict future ( did it not come true for them ? )
Then these 5 % spread the word ( word-of-month) about your magical
powers.
And the remaining 95% for whom, the “
Prediction” did not come true,
Ø
Either forget that they ever read the prediction OR
Ø Believe that it was not “ meant” for them ,
OR
Ø
Hope that your tomorrow’s prediction (about them ) will come true ( the
flame of eternal hope, keeps burning in their hearts – the hope for a better
tomorrow ).
But these 95
% never go out and tell anybody that things did not happen as predicted !
They don’t want to look silly !
They don’t want to appear to be superstitious persons, believing in
unscientific, irrational predictions !
So only the good-word spreads.
Only the “positive” stories spread.
Only the “positive” stories spread.
So each such
story, brings in more & more person to look-up morning newspaper to see, what future holds for them.
Forgotten within 5 minutes but remembered if something ( vaguely)
similar did happen by the end of the day.
--------------------------------------------------------
--------------------------------------------------------
27 April
2017
www.hemenparekh.in / blogs
