Context :
Any
commercial vehicle can be scrapped if it fails fitness test / TOI
– 17 April 2021
Commercial
vehicles can be scrapped even
before 15 years: Road Ministry's draft / 19
April 2021
Extract :
Ø Any commercial vehicle irrespective
of its age and even before it attains
15 years would be phased out if it fails to pass the
automated fitness test after two chance, the draft rules issued by the road and
transport ministry said
Ø The
vehicle owners will have the last option to challenge the test results before
the appellate authority seeking re-testing
Ø According
to draft rules for setting up of automated vehicle testing centres and testing
procedures, the appellate authority may order re-testing within five days after
receiving any complaint and this test result will be final
Ø If
vehicle fails in this test, then it will be considered as “ End of Life “ of
the vehicle and it would be deregistered automatically from the Vahan database
Ø The
vehicle scrapping policy has been prepared keeping the automated fitness test result
as the benchmark
Ø But
private vehicle owners don’t face this risk as such vehicles need to undergo
fitness tests only after 15 years from their date of registration
Ø In
the case of Commercial
Vehicles, fitness tests are mandatory once in
two years till eighth year and then they need to for this testing annually
Ø Currently there are ONLY 7 automated
fitness testing centres including one each in Delhi, Rohtak, Lucknow,
Odisha and Nasik
Ø The
Road Ministry will set up an online mechanism for appointment for testing of vehicles.
Ø To
prevent conflict of interest, the Automated Testing Station shall act as test-only
facility and shall not provide any services related to repair of vehicles
or sale or manufacturing of auto spares, said the Ministry.
===================================================
MY TAKE :
Ø An
automated fitness testing centre needs 5 acre of land , costs Rs 15 crore and
can test 80-100 vehicles in a day , with construction period of one year . For
specifications / requirements of a typical Vehicle Fitness Testing Centre, look
up : https://aiactive.com/pages/transportation/automatic-vehicle-inspection-system.html
Ø So,
our current 7 centres can test 700 vehicles per day (
together, approx.. 2.5
Lakh in a year )
Ø Now
few days back, while announcing the Vehicle Scrapping Policy in Lok Sabha, Shri
Gadkariji gave following estimates of OLD vehicles :
Light Motor Vehicles
# Older
than 20 years…………………………………………. ………………51 lakhs
# Older than
15 years( but less than 20 years ).…………………34 lakhs
Medium and Heavy Commercial Vehicles
# Older than
15 years without any valid FITNESS certificate…17 lakhs
===============================================
TOTAL…………………………………………………………………………………………..102 lakh
===============================================
Hence those 7 centres
will need approx. 7
YEARS to complete testing of
those 17 lakh OLD
commercial vehicles !
Assumptions :
#
No new centres come up in near future
# These existing 7 centres devote themselves exclusively to testing
of only the
Commercial Vehicles
private vehicles . If these too queue up, it would take 40 YEARS !
# No old commercial vehicle owner “ Challenges “ the first test result
and seek re-testing
Problems :
[ A ] COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
TESTING
Ø The above-mentioned figures are for the FIRST TIME testing- whereas commercial
vehicles need testing
be tested EVERY YEAR !
Ø To this figure, we must add, the number of Commercial Vehicles celebrating their 8th Birthday.
In In 2022 , that number would be 6.3 LAKH ( those
produced in 2014 ) !
So
, in 2022 , we are talking of testing 23.3 lakh ( 17 + 6.3 ) commercial vehicles
And with increasing vehicle production, since this figure is steadily rising,
year after year
TOTAL NUMBER TO BE TESTED IN
2022 , will add up as follows :
# Cumulative Backlog till today………………………….. …………….
17 Lakhs
# 100 % of Cum Backlog ( each year after 8
years )………… 17 Lakhs
# 2014 born reaching 8 year in 2022……………………………………6.3
Lakhs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total to
be tested in 2022………………………………………………………… 40.3 Lakhs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
[ B ] PRIVATE VEHICLES
TESTING
Ø Private
vehicles have to be “ Fitness Tested “ for the first time after 15 years, and then every 5 years thereafter .
That means, of the above-mentioned 85 ( 51 + 34 ) lakh which to be tested
AT ONCE right now for the
to be tested EACH YEAR
Ø Now in India we produced / sold 17 lakh Passenger cars in year 2007 . So in 2022,
these will celebrate 15th birthday
and require re-testing
Hence total passenger cars to be tested in 2022, will add up as follows
:
# Cumulative Backlog till today………………………
85 Lakhs
# 20 % of Cumulative Backlog………………………. 17
Lakhs
# 2007
born reaching 15 years……………………… 17 lakhs
------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL for 2022……………………………………………………..
119 Lakh
===================================================
Hence, the Grand Total Number of Vehicles needing immediate testing ( and quite
likely, YEAR after YEAR testing, since vehicle production in India is rising rapidly, )
add up as follows ;
Ø Commercial
Vehicles…………………………………………….. 40.3 Lakhs
Ø Passenger
vehicles………………………………………………….119.0 Lakhs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GRAND TOTAL to be tested in 2022 ………………….. 159.3
Lakhs
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This
DEMAND ( for testing ) must be viewed against the available SUPPLY
One
Fitness Testing Centre can test max 100 vehicles day . That means 30,000 / year
( in 300 working days )
That
means we need 530 testing centres to satisfy this DEMAND
! Costing Rs 7,950 Crore !
Just
impossible !
Is there an ALTERNATIVE ?
May
be !
Install all kinds of sensors in each vehicle ( considering that latest vehicles need
some 1000 – 1400 micro-chips , may be required sensors are already pre-
installed )
Then take help from our GPS-based NaVIC satellites to monitor all of our 240
MILLION vehicles on Indian roads ( parked or moving ) , and determine their
HARM QUOTIENT / TRANS-TAX , as
described at :
Ø Transport : an
Integrated Logistic Plan ? ………………………[ 20 Nov 2018 ]
This system has following advantages :
Ø It
will cost much less than Rs 7950 Crore
Ø In
fact, it could well EARN the Governments ( State
+ Central ), Rs 8,000
crore PER DAY
Ø It
will take less than a year to implement (
if in doubt, consult Dr Sivan – ISRO )
Ø It
will report the “ PASS – FAIL “ reports of all vehicles to a CENTRAL SERVER, on
24x7 basis
Ø It
will plot a GRAPH for each vehicle’s HARM QUOTIENT and alert the authorities /
traffic police
Ø It
will collect TRANS-TAX , automatically ( without human intervention ) from
prepaid RFID FasTag
Ø It
will show TRAFFIC CONDITIONS ( density ) for each and every road of India (
24x7 )
Ø It
will be able to redirect / regulate traffic
Ø It
will motivate people to use Public Transport ( to avoid paying huge TRANS-TAX
for private cars )
Ø It
will reduce air-pollution with buyers switching over to Electric Vehicles
Dear Shri Gadkariji,
I urge you to give an opportunity to our Scientists /
Software – Hardware Engineers / R&D
engineers of Auto Industry / Start-ups in SPACE sectors etc
They will be happy to take up your challenge and come
up with this MOON SHOT solution which will be copied by all the countries
With regards,
Hemen Parekh / hcp@RecruitGuru.com /
20 April 2021
