And just in time , too !
Business Standard
( 09 Feb 2017
) carries a news report with headline :
“ Tesla plans to drive into India this summer
“
It reads :
“Hoping for summer this year,” said
Elon Musk, chief executive officer, Tesla, to a query on Twitter about when the
company planned to come to India.
Tesla began taking orders for its Model 3 sedan, priced at $35,000 ( about Rs 25 lakh ), from customers in the country in April last year.
Musk’s tweet, however, didn’t provide any detail
During Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to
Silicon Valley in September
2015, he took a tour of Tesla’s plant and met with Musk to discuss the
use of renewable energy in India’s hinterland.
The cost of storing energy produced
from sources such as solar and wind is still far too expensive. Musk has been
an advocate of lowering costs through mass production.
Soon after, in October that year, Musk hinted that India would be a
great manufacturing base for the lithium-ion batteries that power Tesla’s cars
and its Powerwall energy storage units.
{ Last week, a 20 MW Powerwall
Substation got set up in California in just 98 days , capable of supplying surplus stored GRID power to 1500
homes, round the clock ! }
“Given the high local demand, a Gigafactory ( extremely large
lithium-ion cell manufacturing unit ) in India would probably make sense in the
long term,” Musk had tweeted.
Even at the Centre, subsidies for
electric vehicles to boost sales across the country have been rolled out under
the National
Electric Mobility Mission Plan.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHY
IS ELON MUSK
INTERESTED IN INDIA
?
Because,
·
Globally , India is the 2nd largest 2 wheeler manufacturer / 6th largest car manufacturer / 8th largest commercial vehicle
manufacturer
·
India produces 24 million vehicles / year and employs 29 million people
·
31%
of the small cars sold globally are made in India
·
Auto Industry contributes 7.1 % of India’s GDP
·
100
% FDI is permitted through automatic route
·
Under , Automobile Mission Plan ( 2016-26 ) , India plans to be among the
TOP
THREE
in the World, with revenues rising to $ 300 billion , from current $ 72 billion
·
Current vehicle population in India , is 200 million ( entirely Petrol or Diesel )
·
India wants to replace ALL of these with
Electric Vehicles by 2030, which works out to 14.3 million / year , even as 24 million petrol / diesel
vehicles will continue to be manufactured every year !
WHY SHOULD
INDIA BE INTERESTED
IN TESLA ?
·
Tesla is the world leader in Electric Car manufacture
·
It has set up a GIGA-FACTORY to
manufacture Li-on batteries
·
Li-on batteries are also used for storing Solar Power
electricity
·
Tesla has set up 795 Supercharging
stations at malls and highways , all over the World , and charges Tesla
car-owners , mere $ 120
for a travel of 3000 miles
from LA to New York !
·
In a few months, Tesla starts mass
production of Model 3
and plan to produce 500,000
cars in 2018
·
If India cannot persuade Elon Musk to set up manufacturing in India ,
any number of other countries are chasing him !
·
Tesla is about to come out with an all-electric
Semi-Truck , which
could be of great interest to India for replacing some 10 million , 15+ year old ( petrol / diesel ) trucks , under just
approved Voluntary
Vehicle Retirement Policy
These vehicles consume 70
% of country’s diesel
Replacing
these with electric vehicle ( rather than with another new diesel vehicle ),
could not only reduce pollution drastically but also save crores of rupees !
WHAT ARE THE ADVANTAGES
OF ELECTRIC CARS ?
·
Electric cars are non-polluting
( no harmful emission gases ) and help reduce green-house effect
·
An electric car is 5 TIMES more energy
efficient as compared to Petrol car ( energy conversion efficiency of up to
99.99 % )
·
An electric car is 10 TIMES cheaper to
charge, with annual cost of $ 313 ( as compared to petrol cost of approx. $
3000 for 12000 miles – USA figures )
·
Since it has only 20
moving parts as compared to 2000 moving parts for a petrol car, an electric vehicle is 10 TIMES cheaper to
maintain
·
It is possible to charge an electric
car Li-on battery wirelessly , using “ Induction Power Transfer ( IPT ) “ . In Italy , electric buses are already being
charged at BUS STOPS , while passengers get off and on !
·
Wireless Charging essentially untethers an electric vehicle . Because
they are replenished many times a day ( at each Bus Stop ), they can use a
smaller battery
·
Li-on batteries of electric cars can
be used to store
electricity generated by Solar Power installations , and can contribute
to Grid Storage .
A recent report by the California
Public Utilities Commission concluded that EV
owners could be paid up to $ 100 PER
MONTH , for providing electricity to the
Grid infrastructure
·
Essentially , an electric car is a “ Computer on Wheels “
It
is integrated with a huge number of sensors and sensor-enabled devices
Not
only all electric cars are connected
through internet, with servers of the manufacturer but also with all the
other electric cars, manufactured by the same manufacturer
This “ connected-ness “ ( Internet of
Things ) enables them to compile , and relay ( or receive ) , in real time ,
data re :
# GPS tracking
# Speed Monitoring and
Control
# Fall Detection
# Remote
Battery Power Sensing
# Tracking
# Scheduling
Maintenance
# Road
Infrastructure
# Traffic Density / Pattern /
Movement
# Vehicle Behaviour / Speeding /
Accidents
# Wear and Tear
All of this continuously
streaming data becomes an invaluable input for manual and automated
decision-making by agencies such as :
# Manufacturers
/ Maintenance Garages / Repair Shops
# Car
Rental Agencies / Share-a-car Taxi
services / Other cars on roads
# Insurance
Companies / Banks
# Road Transport Authorities
/ Road Maintenance Authorities
# Traffic Police Departments
# Pollution
Control Authorities
# Municipalities
Today , Mumbai Municipality announced the
end of FREE parking on the roads
and introduced hefty monthly fees payable
by car owners
City of Mumbai has 30 lakh vehicles and road-length of 2000 km ( 1500
Vehicles / km ) . These include 17 lakh 2 wheelers and 9 lakh
cars
Imagine the nightmare of determining : “ Who “ parks “ Where / When “ and
should pay “ What Amount “ and “ How “ !
If
all these vehicles were electric, money would pour into Municipal Bank
Account ( 24*7 ) , using Aadhar Enabled Payment System
, through pre-
paid RFID chips built into
those vehicles !
This will
help us eliminate “ human intervention “ from “ Collection Process “
·
Electric cars are “ future
proof “ in the sense that , they can be made autonomous or ( someday ) even “ flying “ !
If
energy conversion efficiency of Solar PV panels can be increased to 40 %
as compared to current rate of 18 % , it is even possible that cars fitted with such panels may not need
any charging stations ! ( Remember , Tesla’s Solar Roofing tiles to power homes ? )
·
Electric cars make very little noise hence reduce noise pollution
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHAT ABOUT
DRIVING RANGE PER
CHARGE OF ELECTRIC
CARS ?
·
A range of 200
miles ( 320 km ) per charge might be the
minimum requirement of an electric car today
·
An average American car runs only 58 miles (
93 km ) per day
·
Nissan Leaf has a range of 75 miles (
120 km ) per charge
·
Tesla Model S has a range of 265 miles ( 426 km ) per charge with a 85 kwh
battery, which can be charged up to 80 % ( 250 miles ) in 15 minutes
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WHAT ABOUT
THE COST OF THE
Li-on BATTERY ?
·
In 2010 , EV quality Li-on battery cost about $ 1,000 / kwh
·
Tesla Roadster had a 53 kwh battery
which cost $ 53,000 , about half the total cost of the car
·
Battery costs are dropping at about 12 % per year
·
Current cost of Tesla’s battery is
estimated at $ 100 / kwh !
·
In Tesla Model S (selling for $ 35,000 ), battery is
costing only $ 5,000 !
·
By 2025 , Tesla expects to bring down battery cost under $ 50 / kwh and selling price of Tesla Model S (
equivalent model ) to $ 17,000 ( approx. Rs 12 lakhs ) !
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WILL FUTURE
BATTERY TECHNOLOGY OBSOLETE
Li-on BATTERY ?
·
Have no doubt !
Venkataraman Thangadurai and colleagues (
University of Calgary / Canada )
have developed a rechargeable
, button-sized battery
Thangadurai says :
“
The technology we have developed would enable absolutely stable, robust, safe,
high-powered, all solid state lithium batteries for future energy storage ,
which have many potential applications , including charging of electric vehicles “
And then there is Israeli firm Stores-Dot , which claims to be developing a car battery that can be charged in 5 minutes and give a
range of 300 miles
!
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HOW WILL TESLA
ENTRY AFFECT INDIAN
AUTO INDUSTRY ?
·
If Tesla merely wants to sell their US – made cars to India , it won’t
make much of a difference to existing Indian Car Manufacturers
But,
if it sets up fully integrated manufacturing operations ( including sourcing of
components locally ) , then that could “ disrupt “ the Auto Industry !
From
there, it is one small step to “ disrupt “ the Indian Bicycle Industry
Here
is how : “ A Radical Radial Revolution “
That would dramatically speed up the change-over to
electric car models by all the existing manufacturers – which would be , an
extremely desirable for the Indian Economy as a whole
Welcome ! Elon
Musk
11 Feb 2017
www.hemenparekh.in
/ blogs