Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Sunday, 28 June 2020

A Seven Year War – Redux ?




The Seven Years' War was a global conflict that was fought between 1756 and 1763 …[ 7 years ]


World War I occurred from 1914 to 1918………………………………………………………[ 5 years ]


The Second World War occurred from 1939 to 1945…………………………………………[ 6 years ]



The Third World War is generally considered a successor to the Second World War…..devastating in nature and likely much more violent than both the First and Second World Wars


In 1947, Albert Einstein commented that,
"I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones."


On the face of it , although it is 75 years since end of World War II , we have been lucky , not to have witnessed World War III

At least, warring countries, are not using Nuclear Weapons to conquer lands of other countries

That is why , man-on-the-street does not get to feel ( at least, directly ), the ill-effects of the TRADE WAR , being waged quietly / relentlessly, since I sent following report to L&T’s Corporate Management, some 31 years ago :

=========================================================

January 5, 1989

Mr. S.R.Subramaniam ,

                                
CORPORATE DIVERSIFICATION


20th Century saw two world-wars between super-powers. The aim of both was territorial expansion.


21st Century will witness a similar war of global dimensions -but with a difference


It will be

*  a war of expansion of economic -territory involving nations,    
    large and small

                        
*  fought by mega-corporations


*  employing world-wide network of space-age technologies /    
    Alliances / resources / markets.


*  unrestrained by national boundaries


*  without an end


   
It will be a business-war in which the unprepared will be wiped-out and even those who have made definite survival-plans will find going tough.


I suggest that the Corporate Management sets aside one full day during the forthcoming Strategic-Plan Meetings, to debate this report and take necessary decisions.


=========================================================

31 years after I wrote this report, China seems to have captured much of that ECONOMIC TERRITORY , as can be seen from following :


Exporter Trade

      Country                  /   US$ Billlion   /    Partner share (%)


Ø  China                 /   2,750  https://wits.worldbank.org/images/tiny-icon-2.png     /   14.57
Ø  United States     /   1,573  https://wits.worldbank.org/images/tiny-icon-2.png      /     8.34
Ø  Germany           /   1,436  https://wits.worldbank.org/images/tiny-icon-2.png      /     7.61
Ø  Japan                /      807  https://wits.worldbank.org/images/tiny-icon-2.png      /    4.28
Ø  Korea, Rep.       /      601  https://wits.worldbank.org/images/tiny-icon-2.png      /     3.19


=========================================================


For past decade, all countries around the World, are trying very hard to increase their EXPORTS and reduce their IMPORTS ( - especially, from China )


They want to regain some of that Economic Territory captured by China , which it managed to WIN due to , what I call , a “ PQD Strategy “ :


P = Price ( lower than the cost at which the recipient country can produce a product locally )

Q = Quality ( better than the quality of product in recipient country )

D = Delivery ( faster delivery of much larger quantities than local manufacturers )


Now , as orders started pouring in from all over the World, Chinese Companies built-up huge manufacturing plants to increase capacities to feed the entire world- often with all kinds of incentives from , both the local State governments and the Central Chinese government ( including various kinds of Subsidies and Export Incentives )


Neither was there any pressure from rising “ Labour Wage Costs “, in absence of Trade Unions


Many companies insisted that its workers live in dormitories built by Companies on factory premises and work in 2 shifts of 12 hours each ( without any overtime payment ! )

=========================================================


Now what could happen if countries around the World ( - not just India ),


Ø  Cut back on imports from China

Ø  Start manufacturing locally, products so far imported from China ?


Irrespective of how much such “ Cut Backs “ would help revive the economies of those countries ( - and be able to create local jobs ), one thing is certain, viz:


Ø  Manufacturing capacities of Chinese factories would remain grossly “under-utilized



How would Chinese companies react ?

Ø  Go back and re-visit the “ P ” in their PQD Strategy

Ø  They would lower their “ Prices “ still further ( while further improving Q and D )



 How would they do this ?

Ø  Since there is little that they can do to reduce their “ FIXED COST “, they will try to lower their “ VARIABLE COST “, viz : manpower cost


Ø  They will lower Manpower Cost by ,

     #  Cutting back on number of workers / supervisory staff

     #  Introducing ROBOTS to replace humans, wherever possible

     #  Reducing salaries / wages , across the board and / or restricting annual wage
         increases , well below the percentage rise in CPI ( Consumer Price Index )


     #  Replacing fossil-Fuel base electric power with Solar Power ( @ Re 1 / Kwh ? )


     #  Even “ mandate “ WFH ( Work from Home ) for most office-workers . To make
         this possible, connect Gigabit Internet in every home


     #  Insist that Companies encourage its workers to set-up “home industries“, by
         outsourcing manufacture of components / sub-assemblies and help them with
         machines and finance ( encourage “Self Employment “ from every home )


     #   Make a “ Strategic Shift “ 

        > from being Factory to the World ,

        > to becoming Back Office of World


        [ a marked shift to SERVICE SECTOR– services which can be delivered to the
          World, remotely from small Chinese towns / villages ]



     #  Abolish Paper Currency altogether by introducing Govt sponsored / controlled
         Crypto-Currency. This will eliminate Black Money / Corruption by making all
         transactions ( Sale / Purchase ) only digital ( including salary-wage payments )


    #  Introduce “ Hire – Purchase “ schemes for foreign buyers of Chinese products


Ø  When Chinese companies drop their Prices still further, that powerful Economic Equation of C > P > V ( Low Costs > lead to Low Price > lead to High Volumes ), will assert itself  
          
======================================================


My Countrymen,


Even as you listen to experts ( politically motivated or otherwise ), ask them :


“ Madam / Sir :


  Please, take a look at the following table , comparing how our economy grew vis-à-vis that of China, over the past decades. Starting at the almost same level as ourselves, China seems to have over-taken us, many times over


It is easy – and convenient – to dismiss China’s phenomenal growth to its dictatorial political system , where the decision-power is highly centralized among a few . No denying that this could be an important / relevant factor


But , certainly not the ONLY FACTOR


I urge you to debate whether that PQD Strategy which I described above, could also be an important factor in China gaining a large share of world’s Economic Territory “


======================================================

{source for following comparison: Not just Galwan, we need to win these 5 battles too  }

=======================
===============================
Srl No
Parameter


Readers: Add comments and share with contacts
1
GDP ( $ Billion )
1980
2018


         India
186.3
2,718


         China
191.1
13,608






2
Urban Population( % )
1950
2020


          India
17 %
34.9 %


          China
11.8 %
61.4 %






3
Poverty Headcount Ratio ( % )
1987-90
2015


          India
48.9 %
21.2 %


          China
66.2 %
  0.5 %






4
Rail Network ( Km )
1980-81
2017-18


          India
61,240
68,442


          China
51,700
127,000






5
Car Production/year
1999
2019


          India
5.3 Lakh
36.2 Lakh


          China
5.7 Lakh
213  Lakh








Dear Narendrabhai,


In your yesterday’s “ Man Ki  Baat “ address to the nation, you invited citizen to come forward and send you “ Innovative Suggestions

Please consider those listed above ( and at the link below sent to you earlier) , which no doubt, China will implement within 1 year !

     Boycott Chinese Products ? A Game Two can play  …………………………[ 09 June 2020 ]



With regards,


Hemen Parekh

hcp@RecruitGuru.com  /  29  June  2020

Thursday, 25 June 2020

Thank You , cp@trai.gov.in


Thank You ,   cp@trai.gov.in 

aka,

Shri R S Sharmaji  [  Chairman – TRAI ]


---------------------------------------------

What for ?

For accepting my following suggestion sent as email, some 17 months back :
Thank You , Shri R S Sharmaji  ………………………………………..[  24  Jan  2019  ]


What was the suggestion ?

Quote from that e mail :
======================

I am not alone in asking :


Why should a subscriber get tied to just ( any ) one broadcaster ?


Why am I held a captive hostage of one subscriber ? – with its dish and set-top box ?



Why can’t I choose a combo of individual channels offered by several DTH broadcasters ?


Why can I not have a “ Selection Portability “ across all DTH broadcasters ?


How to “ democratize “ TV viewing ?


·         Let TRAI launch………www.ChannelAggregation.gov.in


·         All TV owners to register here with Name / Address / Aadhar / PAN etc


·         For renewals , subscriber will need to enter Password / Subscriber No


·         Subscribers to be able to select any combination of those 800 Channels and make online
          payments on this web site, which amount TRAI will pass on to broadcasters


·         TRAI to pass-on this data to ALL concerned broadcasters with details of channels
          selected by each subscriber

·         There will be one universal common Set-top box / Dish antenna / Remote


·         At some later date , software may be modified to deliver “ ADVT LESS “ channels , for a
          higher monthly rates

·         All renewals to take place on this web site



What are the benefits of this proposal ?


·         Substitution of current complex  TWO STEP approach with a simple ONE STEP

·         Elimination of disputes between broadcasters / subscribers / MSO / TRAI


·         Better regulation by TRAI of the TV business through real-time data

·         Transparency in respect of  TRP ratings / Broadcaster – MSO subscriptions

·         Real time TV usage statistics on TRAI web site, in following categories :


      City – Region – Genre – Language – Broadcaster – Pay – FTA – HD / SD


    Knowledge of such sharply defined / accurate and real time “ Customer Preferences “
    would greatly help online advertisers , who currently spend Rs 24,428 Crore on TV
    advts  - ( 39 % of total all-India ad spend on all media put together )

One suggestion :

Push through an INTEGRATION of your platform with the E Com web sites of all those TV Broadcasters , whereby both become a MIRROR IMAGE of the selections ( database ), and payments made / account status ,  made by each and every TV Subscriber . Today , these remain a mystery to TRAI

 =========================================================

Any indication of acceptance of your suggestion ?

Just came across following news report :

TRAI launches channel selection app to facilitate easy subscription modification  /  25 June



Extract :

Ø   The Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) on Thursday launched a channel selector application which will facilitate consumers to view their TV subscription and choose the channels of their interest while removing the unwanted ones.


Ø  In a statement, TRAI said that after issuing the new tariff order for broadcasting services it was noticed that consumers were facing difficulty to opt for TV channels or bouquets of their choice on the web portal or applications of their respective Distributed Platform Operators (DPO).


Ø  Therefore, the authority decided to develop an app which will fetch data from DPOs.


Ø  The regulator said it has developed the TV Channel Selector App to provide reliable, robust and transparent systems to television subscribers.


Ø  The app would facilitate subscribers to check their own subscription, view all channels and bouquets provided by their DTH or Cable operator, choose only the channels of interest and remove unwanted channels.


Ø  The consumers can get the best combination of user selected channels or bouquets in same price or in less price by using the app, the statement said.


It also gives consumers the facility to modify existing subscription and check real time status of your subscription request.


Ø  Another prominent feature of the app is optimisation of the subscription before it is sent to DTH or cable operator and, therefore, the subscribers can get best value for money, TRAI said

=========================================================

Dear Shri Sharmaji,

I hope , before your expected retirement by end – 2020, you will initiate a debate among all the stake-holders for implementing my following suggestion, which has the potential to REVOLUTIONIZE the entire TV industry .


I believe the Software Technology Platform required for implementation, can be provided by IndiaStack  / iSpirt


And, as far as the Electronics Hardware ( Set Top Box – cum – Computer ) is concerned, Government should extend to Indian Hardware manufacturers, incentives just announced as per following news report :

Centre launches three new schemes to promote electronics manufacturing in India


=======================================================

My Suggestion :

The Future of TV Viewing ?  ………………………………………………………….[  28 March 2019 ]

 

Extract :

 

Ø  But imagine if each Set Top Box , were to morph into a BAR-O-Meter

 

Ø  That makes for 200 Million BAR-O-Meters  - as against 40,000 today !

 

Ø  And to complete the TV VIEWERSHIP MEASUREMENT revolution , stretch your imagination as follows :


    #   All of this 200 Million “ Smart Set Top Boxes “ will be tiny Super-computers with
         terabytes of memory


   #   All of these will be only “ Pre-paid “ versions enabling instant Online Payments
        from TV Screen / Remote


  #   These Set Top Boxes will show ALL TV channels, all the time, – eliminating need
       for ala-carte pre-selection on Service provider’s web site / filling up channel
       Selection forms of MSO ( TV Cable operators )

  

 #   A viewer would be able to view ANY channel, any time


#   Smart Set Top Box will automatically / instantly , deduct money ( from pre-paid
     account of the household ), based on “ Per Minute “ tariff for each channel . “ Credit
     Balance “ will flash in screen corner, every 10 minutes { “ PAY  PER  USE “ model  }
     


#   Being a “ Super Smart Set Top Box “ , internet will be integrated and web sites made
     available on TV screen (- why need a separate computer screen ? )

     

#   Smart Set Top Box will also enable Video – Audio Streaming services like Netflix and
     just announced Apple TV+ / Apple News Plus / Apple Arcade etc
     


#   Smart Set Top Box will enable job portals ( and of course, LinkedIn ) to deliver “
     Suitable / Recommended Job Alerts “, and permit “ Apply Online “ , using remote
     

#   Solely at his own discretion , a viewer would ,


      ·          Allow advertisers to display “ Customized Advts “ on his TV screen , based on
             his TV Channel Viewing History

     ·          Rent his “ Net Surfing History “ to Social Media Sites for a “ Monthly Rental “ of
            Rs 1,000

======================================================



Internet Technologies  which are “ Converging “ to make this possible :


Ø  5G ( Mobile Telephony )

Ø  Reliance JIO GigaFibre  ( Broadband Landline )

Ø  Li-Fi
 
Ø  Elon Musk’s STAR LINK project to place in orbit 31,000 satellites  for internet

Ø  Google’s LOON project

Ø  Amazon’s Satellite project

Ø  Many others

=========================================================

With regards,


Hemen Parekh

hcp@recruitGuru.com  /  26  June  2020