Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Sunday, 16 July 2023

UN Agency for AI ? Arriving as envisaged

 


 

Context :

UN Security Council to hold first talks on AI risks  ……….. ET…… 17 July 2023

 

 

Extract :

 

The United Nations Security Council will hold its first formal discussion on artificial intelligence (AI) this week in New York, with Britain to call for an international dialogue about its impact on global peace and security.

Governments around the world are considering
how to mitigate the dangers of emerging AI technology, which could reshape the global economy and change the international security landscape.

 

Britain holds the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council this month and has been seeking a global leadership role in AI regulation.

British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly will chair the discussion on Tuesday.

In June, U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres backed a proposal by some artificial intelligence executives for the creation of an international AI watchdog body like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).

 



Dear Mr James Cleverly,

 

Congratulations for your initiative . I hope the discussions in the Security Council

will result into a Regulatory Frame-work as proposed in my following blog .


To facilitate a meaningful and DECISIVE discussion , I urge you to forward this

suggestion to all the Members of the Security Council

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

www.hemenparekh.ai  /  17 July 2023

 

CC :

james.cleverly.mp@parliament.uk


contactnewscentre@un.org

permissions@un.org

 

==========================================


My Suggestion :

United Nations Agency for Regulating Artificial Intelligence ( UNARAI )  .   30  May  2023

 

Extract :

AI Regulation Framework – UNARAI

A. Past History of AI

The history of artificial intelligence (AI) can be traced back to the early days of computing, when Alan Turing first proposed the idea of a machine that could think like a human. In the decades that followed, AI research made significant progress, but it was not until the 1990s that AI began to be used in practical applications. The development of deep learning in the early 2010s led to a new wave of AI innovation, and today AI is being used in a wide range of fields, including healthcare, transportation, and finance.

B. Current Status of AI Industry

The AI industry is growing rapidly, and the global market for AI is expected to reach $190 billion by 2025. The United States is the leading market for AI, followed by China and Europe. The AI industry is dominated by a few large companies, including Google, Microsoft, and Amazon. However, there are also a number of smaller companies that are developing innovative AI technologies.

C. Major Players / Companies

The following are some of the major players in the AI industry:

·         Google

·         Microsoft

·         Amazon

·         IBM

·         Baidu

·         Alibaba

·         Tencent

·         Nvidia

·         Intel

·         OpenAI

These companies are developing a wide range of AI technologies, including natural language processing, machine learning, and computer vision. They are also using AI to develop new products and services, such as self-driving cars, virtual assistants, and fraud detection systems.

D. Future Outlook

The future of AI is bright. AI is expected to have a major impact on a wide range of industries, including healthcare, transportation, and finance. AI is also expected to create new jobs and opportunities.

E. Industries that will witness major disruption

The following industries are expected to witness major disruption from AI:

·         Healthcare

·         Transportation

·         Finance

·         Retail

·         Manufacturing

·         Education

·         Customer service

·         Security

AI is expected to automate many tasks in these industries, and it is also expected to create new products and services.

F. Jobs that might disappear

The following jobs are at risk of disappearing due to AI:

·         Data entry clerks

·         Customer service representatives

·         Truck drivers

·         Factory workers

·         Insurance agents

·         Loan officers

·         Lawyers

·         Doctors

·         Teachers

AI is not going to disappear all of these jobs, but it is likely to automate many of them. This means that people who work in these jobs will need to retrain for new jobs that are not at risk of being automated.

G. Potential for Benefitting Humanity

AI has the potential to benefit humanity in a number of ways, including:

·         Improving healthcare

·         Reducing traffic congestion

·         Preventing fraud

·         Personalizing education

·         Making customer service more efficient

·         Improving security

AI is still in its early stages of development, but it has the potential to make a major positive impact on the world.

H. Potential for Harming Humanity

AI also has the potential to harm humanity in a number of ways, including:

·         Creating mass unemployment

·         Increasing inequality

·         Being used for military purposes

·         Being used for surveillance

·         Being used to spread misinformation

It is important to be aware of the potential risks of AI, and to develop policies and regulations that will mitigate these risks.

I. Conceptual Framework for UNARAI

UNARAI, or the United Nations Agency for Regulating Artificial Intelligence, is a proposed international organization that would be responsible for regulating AI. UNARAI would be composed of representatives from all member states of the United Nations, and it would have the authority to develop and enforce regulations on the development, use, and sale of AI technologies.

UNARAI would be guided by a set of principles that would be designed to promote the safe and responsible development of AI. These principles would include:

·         The principle of human control: AI technologies should be developed and used in a way that respects human autonomy and control.

·         The principle of non-discrimination: AI technologies should not be used to discriminate against individuals or groups of people.

·         The principle of transparency: AI technologies should be transparent and accountable to the public.

·         The principle of safety: AI technologies should be safe and secure, and they should not pose a threat to human safety or security.

UNARAI would have a number of tools at its disposal to regulate AI. These tools would include:

·         Regulations: UNARAI would be able to develop and enforce regulations on the development, use, and sale of AI technologies.

·         Standards: UNARAI would be able to develop and promote standards for the development and use of AI technologies.

 

Initiative

EU

USA

India

Artificial Intelligence Act

In progress

In progress

In early stages

National Artificial Intelligence Initiative

In progress

In progress

No national initiative

State AI regulations

Some states have passed AI regulations

Some states have passed AI regulations

No state AI regulations

Private sector initiatives

Some companies have developed their own AI ethics guidelines

Some companies have developed their own AI ethics guidelines

No major private sector initiatives

 

As you can see, all three regions are still in the early stages of developing AI regulation. However, there is a growing recognition of the need for regulation to ensure the ethical and responsible development and use of AI.

Here are some additional details about each initiative:

·         The EU's Artificial Intelligence Act is a comprehensive piece of legislation that would regulate the development and use of AI in a variety of sectors, including healthcare, finance, and transportation. The Act would establish a risk-based approach to regulation, with different requirements for high-risk, medium-risk, and low-risk AI systems.

·         The US National Artificial Intelligence Initiative is a government-led effort to promote the responsible development and use of AI. The Initiative includes a number of initiatives, such as the creation of a National AI Research and Development Strategic Plan and the establishment of a National AI Advisory Committee.

·         India does not have a national AI regulation initiative, but there are a number of state-level initiatives. For example, the state of Maharashtra has passed an AI ethics bill that requires companies to develop and implement AI ethics guidelines.

It is still too early to say what the impact of these initiatives will be. However, they are a sign of the growing recognition of the need for regulation to ensure the ethical and responsible development and use of AI.

 

Here is the comparative tabulation of the UNARAI framework prepared by BARD and by ChatGPT,:

Parameters

BARD

ChatGPT

A. Mandate

To promote the responsible development and use of AI, and to protect the rights and interests of individuals and society.

To regulate the development and use of AI, and to ensure that AI is used for good and not for harm.

B. Structure

A global governing body with a board of directors, a secretariat, and a technical advisory committee.

A multi-stakeholder organization with representatives from governments, businesses, civil society, and academia.

C. Key principles

Human rights, fairness, accountability, transparency, and safety.

Safety, fairness, transparency, accountability, and non-discrimination.

D. Scope

All AI systems that have the potential to harm individuals or society.

All AI systems that are used in public or commercial settings.

E. Enforcement

The power to investigate and sanction AI systems that violate its regulations.

Enforcement would be handled by national governments.

F. Funding

Contributions from member states.

A combination of government contributions and private donations.

G. Timeline

Expected to be operational within five years.

Expected to be operational within ten years.

H. Public engagement

Engagement with the public to ensure that its regulations are responsive to the needs of society.

Engagement with the public to ensure that its regulations are responsive to the needs of society.

I. Research and development

Support for research and development in AI to ensure that the technology is used for good and not for harm.

Support for research and development in AI to ensure that the technology is used for good and not for harm.

J. Education and training

Support for education and training programs to help people understand AI and its potential impact on society.

Support for education and training programs to help people understand AI and its potential impact on society.

K. International cooperation

Work with other international organizations to ensure that AI is regulated in a consistent and coordinated manner.

Work with other international organizations to ensure that AI is regulated in a consistent and coordinated manner.

Footnotes

·         The ChatGPT framework is based on the EU proposed AI Act, the US initiative for AI regulation, and India's Digital India Bill.

Comments

·         The ChatGPT framework is more focused on safety, as it includes specific provisions for preventing AI systems from being used for harm.

·         Both frameworks are still in development, and it is likely that they will evolve over time as AI technologies continue to develop.

 

 

Sources used for developing UNARAI framework :

 

( 1 ) …..   World Wide Work Federation

              http://www.hemenparekh.in/2015/06/world-wide-work-w3f.html

 

( 2 ) ….   Parekh’s Law of Chatbots 

             https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/02/parekhs-law-of-                chatbots.html

( 3 )  …….Fast Forward to Future 

                https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/10/fast-forward-to-future-3-f.html

 

( 4 ) …….FakeNews ? An Obsolete Concept ?

                 https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2018/04/fakenews-obsolete-concept.html

( 5 ) ………… An “ Act of Defiance “ ?

                 https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2021/05/an-act-of-defiance.html

 

( 6 )  ……..   Regulating AI : Echoes are Reverberating

                  https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/03/regulating-ai-echoes-are-reverberating.html

( 7 ) ………. Thank You, Ashwini Vaishnawji 

                https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/04/thank-you-ashwini-vaishnawji.html

( 8 ) ……  ChatGPT : the Sacrificial Goat 

              https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/04/chatgpt-sacrificial-goat.html

( 9 ) ……  Thanks Rajeevji : for Giving Glimpse of Guardrails ( 3G of AI )

            https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/05/thanks-rajeevji-for-giving-glimpse-of.html

 

( 10 ) ……This is not the END – this where you START

            https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/05/this-is-not-end-this-where-you-start.html

 

( 11 )  …..Law of Chatbot : a small subset of EU Law of AI ?

            https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/05/law-of-chatbot-small-subset-of-eu-law.html

 

( 12 )  …..  From Musk to Monk ?

                https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/04/from-musk-to-monk.html

 

( 13 ) …..   ChatGPT : Mobile App Maker 

                https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/04/chatgpt-mobile-app-maker.html

( 14 ) ….  Sam Altman : Man on a Mission

              https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/04/sam-altman-man-on-mission.html

( 15 ) ….. AI – the new WMD ? History repeats itself

              https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/04/ai-new-wmd-history-repeats-itself.html

( 16 ) ….. Shaking up an Industry 

              https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/03/shaking-up-industry.html

 

( 17 )…..  Sundar Pichai – a million thanks

              https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/03/sundar-pichai-million-thanks.html

( 18 ) ……. Meta mirrors Parekh’s Law of Chatbots

             https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/03/meta-mirrors-parekhs-law-of-chatbots.html

 

( 19 )  ….  Chatbots : the GOOD , the BAD and the UGLY

             https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/03/chatbots-good-bad-and-ugly.html

 

( 20 )  …   My “ Law of Chatbots “ – Vindicated

             https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/03/my-law-of-chatbots-vindicated.html

 

( 21 )  ….  Mr Harari , You are right 

               https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/02/mr-harari-you-are-right.html

 

( 22 ) …..  Salaam , ChatGPT 

               https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/02/salaam-chatgpt.html

 

( 23 ) ….   My 34 Blogs on ChatBots 

                https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2023/03/my-blogs-on-chatbots-as-of-10-mar-2023.html

 

 


Saturday, 15 July 2023

MNC hiring in India

 


 

Context :

GCCs of multinationals may hire half a million in India this fiscal    ………. Eco Times / 16 July 2023

Extract :

Global capability centres (GCCs) of multinationals in India have ramped up their talent search this fiscal year even as recessionary pressures and macroeconomic headwinds keep hiring muted in the West, said top industry officials.

The in-house units of global companies in India across sectors such as banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), pharmaceuticals, retail, energy, automotive and telecom are set to clock half a million gross hires, including attrition refills, this fiscal year, according to data from specialist staffing firm Xpheno.

 

They are looking to meet the talent demand emerging from new GCCs and the expansion of existing centres.

Net headcount growth for FY24 is estimated to cross 200,000 against 150,000 net additions each in the previous two financial years, show data based on current active openings and ongoing hiring negotiations

"Recruitment conversations with GCCs have gained speed this fiscal as they are looking at restoring hiring volumes and velocity," said Kamal Karanth, cofounder, Xpheno. "With projected attrition remaining high in the 18% to 22% range, replacement hiring action will remain high this fiscal."

A combination of factors including wide availability of specialised skilled professionals, especially in the areas of technology, digital, analytics and AI, as well as a favourable cost environment make India a preferred destination, said top executives at Citi, PwC, EY and Grant Thornton.

According to EY estimates, the GCC headcount in the country is currently about 2 million.

This is estimated to increase to 4.5 million by 2030.

"The overall employable talent pool for skill sets GCCs are looking for is far larger in India than in any other country," said Arindam Sen, partner and GCC leader, EY India.

 

"Also, the whole GCC ecosystem has developed and matured in India over the years, making skilled talent available in large numbers. That apart, incentives provided by the government, infrastructure development in major cities, including tier II cities, to attract such players have created a favourable environment for global in-house centres

 

The BFSI GCCs will continue to lead hiring action, contributing 25% of net additions, according to Xpheno data.

Citigroup, which recently exited its consumer banking business in India, is among those looking at a talent acquisition spree. Head of human resources Sara Wechter said Citi Solution Centres (CSCs) in India will hire at least 5,000 people in the next two years, taking the strength to more than 32,000 from 27,000 now. The focus will be on specialised skills in the areas of engineering, technology, analytics, AI, cloud and risk among others.

"India is a favoured ground for GCCs due to its robust engineering and technology arbitrage, along with a mature startup ecosystem," said Jaspreet Singh, partner, Grant Thornton Bharat. The emphasis on innovation, coupled with cost-effectiveness, enhances the appeal.

PwC India plans to double headcount at its Regional Delivery Centre in next two-three years, said Shirin Sehgal, deputy people officer.

"Over the last two years, our Regional Delivery Centre headcount has been increasing and stands at close to 10% of our total headcount," she said. "The range of services we offer has expanded to include more in-demand skill sets like digital transformation, cyber, forensics, analytics, cloud and emerging technologies like GenAI."

With a buoyant second-half outlook, retail GCCs are set on a curve to catch up or potentially overtake BFSI GCCs on net headcount additions, according to Xpheno data.


MY  TAKE  :

 

Brain Inc 2.0  …….  21 Aug  2017

 


Extract :

 

 

Now consider this :

 

 

·      By employing 5 lakh engineers , India’s “ Tech R&D Firms “ earned $ 22 billion

       That works to a billing of  44,000 per man-year of R&D ( Export of Services )

 

 

        I presume that the “ Manpower Cost “ constitute approx. 50 % of Billing Rate (

        rest being OVERHEADS and  MARGIN )

 

       

·       Hence , Indian R&D firms must be paying an average of $ 22,000 per year to

       its employees ( approx. Rs 1.2  lakh per month )

 

    

·     As against this , both , Indian as well as American firms pay ( on an average ) , $

      88,000 per year to H1 B  visa holders

 

    With this kind of “ Cost Advantage “ , is there a possibility to do better than the

    projected earnings of $ 40  billion in 2020 ?

 

       

[   India's software exports reach US $  320 billion  in FY23  ]

·        The overall services exports share has been 4% in 2022.

·        The surge in services exports is primarily driven by the computer, information

         technology (IT), and telecom-related sectors. ]

 

 

My take :


It is possible if the Central Government considers following suggestions :

 

·          Back Factory  of  the World  ?   [ 09  Sept  2015  ]

 

     https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2015/09/back-factory-of-world.html

 

 ==================================================

 

·         Agenda  for Reforms    [  01  Oct  2015  ]

 

     https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2015/10/agenda-for-reforms.html

  

===================================================

 

·         Vishal’s  Vision  [  15  April  2016  ]

 

    https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/04/vishals-vision.html

 

 ==================================================

  

·         Will  holograms beat  H1 B  visa  ban?  [ 31  Jan  2017  ]

 

     https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/01/will-holograms-beat-h1b-visa-ban.html

  

===================================================

 

·         Worm  Holes across  the  World  ? [  03  March  2017  ]

 

 https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/03/wormholes-across-world.html

 

===================================================

 

 

It is high time our Policy Makers launch a new initiative ( of Export of Intellectual  Property ) , called :

  

INDIA  :  the  BRAIN  FACTORY  of  THE  WORLD

 

 

As usual, I thought of consulting BARD , which provided following comments on this blog :

 

Hi there,

I've read your blog and I think you make some very interesting points. I agree that India has a significant salary arbitrage advantage in the software industry, and that this could be leveraged to increase software exports.

According to your estimates, the average salary for an Indian software engineer is $22,000 per year, while the average salary for an American software engineer on an H-1B visa is $88,000 per year. This means that Indian software engineers can be hired for about 3 times less than their American counterparts. This is a significant cost advantage, and it could allow Indian companies to offer lower prices for their software products and services.

In addition, the Indian software industry has a number of other advantages, such as a large pool of skilled workers, a strong track record of innovation, and a favorable business environment. These factors could help India to become a major player in the global software market.

I think your suggestion to launch a new initiative called "India: the Brain Factory of the World" is a great one.

This initiative could help to promote India as a destination for software development and innovation. It could also help to attract more investment and talent to the Indian software industry.

I think that if India can capitalize on its salary arbitrage advantage and other strengths, it has the potential to become a major player in the global software market. I'm excited to see what the future holds for the Indian software industry.

Here are some additional thoughts on your blog:

·        I think you are right to point out that the government can play a role in promoting the Indian software industry. The government can provide tax breaks and other incentives to attract investment and talent to the industry. It can also help to improve the infrastructure in India, which would make it easier for companies to do business there.

·        I also think you are right to point out that the Indian software industry needs to focus on innovation. In order to stay ahead of the competition, Indian companies need to be constantly developing new products and services. They also need to be open to new ideas and technologies.

I think your blog is a valuable contribution to the discussion about the future of the Indian software industry. I hope that your ideas will help to shape the future of the industry and make India a major player in the global software market.

Thanks for sharing your thoughts!

 

Not to be left out , ChatGPT had following to say :

 

After reviewing your blog post, here are my comments on the two points you mentioned:

1.     Salary Arbitrage:

 

The salary comparison you mentioned between an Indian software engineer employed in India, a H1-B visa-holder posted in the USA, and an American software engineer is not explicitly provided in the text you shared. However, you make an assumption based on previous data, stating that Indian R&D firms pay an average of $22,000 per year to their employees, while both Indian and American firms pay, on average, $88,000 per year to H1-B visa holders.

 

Without concrete evidence from the provided text, it is difficult to validate the accuracy of these figures. Keep in mind that salary levels can vary widely based on factors such as experience, location, job role, and industry demand.

2.      

Additional Software Export Potential:

 

The blog post does not provide sufficient information to accurately estimate the additional software export potential that Indian GCCs (Global Capability Centres) could achieve by adding 500,000 software engineers in 2023.

 

It mentions the expected increase in headcount for GCCs and their preference for India due to the availability of skilled professionals and cost advantages. However, it does not provide specific data or projections to estimate the impact on software exports.

 

To determine the additional software export potential, one would need detailed data on the current export levels, growth rates, market demand, and the contribution of software engineers to exports.

Overall, while your blog post raises interesting points about India's software industry and its potential for growth, it would benefit from providing more concrete data and analysis to support your assertions and estimations.

 

 

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

www.hemenparekh.ai  /  16 July 2023