Very few , who may be around 24 years from today ( in 2047 ) , would remember the following news report :
Per
Capita Income To Go Up 7 Times By 2047, Says SBI; Real Rise Will Be... NDTV
/ 16 Aug 2023
Extract :
India's per capita income is
projected to grow over seven
times by 2047, when the country will be
celebrating its 100th Independence Day, an SBI Research report has said.
Released on
the 77th Independence Day yesterday, the report - 'The Ascent of the new Middle
Class in circular migration' - predicts that the per capita income will go up from the current ₹ 2 lakh
to ₹ 14.9 lakh rupees.
But there is a
catch.
The SBI Research report projects a
rise in the nominal income, and doesn't account for the inflation from 2023 to
2047. The sum of ₹ 14.9 lakh won't have the same value 24 years later as it does today.
A calculation
shows that the increase in per capita income, accounting for inflation, will be just two times. Assuming an
annual inflation rate of 5%, which is the average of the last 10 years'
inflation rates, the real value
of today's ₹ 14.9 lakh will be around ₹ 4 lakh in 2047.
India's per
capita income currently is among the lowest in the lower middle income
countries, even less than that of countries like Bangladesh.
The SBI report
also makes several projections on the rise in India's workforce and taxpayers.
It states that the number of Indians who file taxes will go up nearly seven
times, from 7 crore in FY23 to 48.2 crore in FY47.
"'Middle
Income Economy cohort is going forward as the tax filer base, helped by ongoing
reforms and confidence-building measures coupled with a galvanizing economy
firing on all cylinders promises to bring to the net ~482 million IT filers in
FY47, The formalisation drive of nearly 70 million MSMEs promises to broad base
the cohort suitably," the report states.
It adds that
13.6% of income tax filers left the lowest income strata from 2012-23, and 25%
are likely to leave by 2047. The report says around 17.5% of filers are
expected to move up to the ₹ 5 lakh-Rs 10 lakh income group, 5% to
the ₹ 10 lakh-Rs 20 lakh group and 3% to the ₹ 20 lakh-Rs
50 lakh income group.
While overall
per capita income will grow to 14.9 lakhs, the annual weighted mean income
(calculated by giving different weights to some of the individual values) of
income tax filers will go up by less than 4 times - from 13 lakh rupees in FY23
to 49.7 lakh rupees in FY47 - says the SBI Research report.
Analysing data
of income tax returns, the report says that the percentage of income tax filers
in the total taxable workforce is projected to grow by 3.8 times. In 2023, only
22.4% of the total workforce with a taxable income filed income tax returns. In
2047, this is projected to go up to 85.3%.
According to
the report, the number of people with a taxable income is also projected to
grow by 80% by 2047. In FY23, 31.3 crore people (59% of the total workforce)
have a taxable income and this number is projected to grow to 56.5 crore (78%
of the projected workforce in 2047).
The number of
people paying income tax is projected to increase not just because of a rise in
income and tax compliance, but also due to a rise in the country's workforce.
The report says that India's workforce is projected to grow by 37%. In FY23,
India's workforce has 53 crore people (38% of population), and this is
projected to grow to 72.5 crore (45% of the population in 2047)
My Take :
Horoscope
of a Nation ?
Extract :
Readers are requested to interpret this VISION DOCUMENT in terms of my
following
-------------------------------------------------------
Horoscope &
Other ( Equally Fictitious ) Stories
Most People live on, on eternal hope
of a better tomorrow- even those whose “ past / present ” has been quite good.
So, you cannot blame those whose “ past / present ” is not-so-good, to
yearn for a better tomorrow.
And what technique do these
forecasters employ to predict people’s future ?
They know that “events” recur with
regularity – except that some events occur with greater regularity than some
others.
But every event is likely to occur in
near future or distant future ( if probability is low).
Whereas, probability of a Political
leader getting assassinated TOMORROW will be a very low, 0.001 ,
So, there are 3 dimensions to an event viz ;
· Type
/ Nature of event
Now examine :
Ø TYPE / NATURE OF EVENT :-
Practically, these can run into
thousands.
An event can happen tomorrow or it
can happen after one month or after 10 years or a century.
Ø PERSON AFFECTED :-
There are 6 billion humans on this
earth.
& TRILLIONS of combinations, with a “ Probability ” attached to each !
This is what , makes “ predicting of future ” so easy !
· Something
or Else ( event)
is likely to happen to,
Someone or Else ( Person)
At
· Sometime
or other ( Time)
of ,
Ø An Individual
You are safe !
BECAUSE, WHAT YOU HAVE JUST PREDICTED , IS BOUND TO HAPPEN ,
SOMETIME OR OTHER TO SOMEONE OR
OTHER !
Now if something that is vaguely resembling what was predicted, does actually
happen to even 5 % of the people who “ read” your prediction, their confidence /
faith in your ability to
predict future sky-rockets !
They start believing that you have some God-given, magical powers to predict
future ( did it not come true for them ? )
And the remaining 95% for whom, the “
Prediction” did not come true,
Ø Either forget that they ever read the prediction OR
of eternal hope, keeps burning in their hearts – the hope for a better tomorrow ).
predicted !
They don’t want to look silly !
They don’t want to appear to be superstitious persons, believing in unscientific,
irrational predictions !
Only the “positive” stories spread.
So each such story, brings in more & more person to look-up morning newspaper
to see, what future holds
for them.
happen by the end of the day.
With regards,
Hemen Parekh
www.hemenparekh.ai / 17
Aug 2023