Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Wednesday, 16 August 2023

Tum Rahe na Tum , Hum Rahe na Hum

 


 

Very few , who may be around 24 years from today ( in 2047 ) , would remember the following news report :

 

Per Capita Income To Go Up 7 Times By 2047, Says SBI; Real Rise Will Be...   NDTV   /  16 Aug 2023

 

Extract :

India's per capita income is projected to grow over seven times by 2047, when the country will be celebrating its 100th Independence Day, an SBI Research report has said.

Released on the 77th Independence Day yesterday, the report - 'The Ascent of the new Middle Class in circular migration' - predicts that the per capita income will go up from the current ₹ 2 lakh to ₹ 14.9 lakh rupees.

But there is a catch. 

The SBI Research report projects a rise in the nominal income, and doesn't account for the inflation from 2023 to 2047. The sum of ₹ 14.9 lakh won't have the same value 24 years later as it does today

A calculation shows that the increase in per capita income, accounting for inflation, will be just two times. Assuming an annual inflation rate of 5%, which is the average of the last 10 years' inflation rates, the real value of today's ₹ 14.9 lakh will be around ₹ 4 lakh in 2047

India's per capita income currently is among the lowest in the lower middle income countries, even less than that of countries like Bangladesh.

The SBI report also makes several projections on the rise in India's workforce and taxpayers. It states that the number of Indians who file taxes will go up nearly seven times, from 7 crore in FY23 to 48.2 crore in FY47. 

"'Middle Income Economy cohort is going forward as the tax filer base, helped by ongoing reforms and confidence-building measures coupled with a galvanizing economy firing on all cylinders promises to bring to the net ~482 million IT filers in FY47, The formalisation drive of nearly 70 million MSMEs promises to broad base the cohort suitably," the report states. 

It adds that 13.6% of income tax filers left the lowest income strata from 2012-23, and 25% are likely to leave by 2047. The report says around 17.5% of filers are expected to move up to the ₹ 5 lakh-Rs 10 lakh income group, 5% to the ₹ 10 lakh-Rs 20 lakh group and 3% to the ₹ 20 lakh-Rs 50 lakh income group. 

While overall per capita income will grow to 14.9 lakhs, the annual weighted mean income (calculated by giving different weights to some of the individual values) of income tax filers will go up by less than 4 times - from 13 lakh rupees in FY23 to 49.7 lakh rupees in FY47 - says the SBI Research report. 

Analysing data of income tax returns, the report says that the percentage of income tax filers in the total taxable workforce is projected to grow by 3.8 times. In 2023, only 22.4% of the total workforce with a taxable income filed income tax returns. In 2047, this is projected to go up to 85.3%. 

According to the report, the number of people with a taxable income is also projected to grow by 80% by 2047. In FY23, 31.3 crore people (59% of the total workforce) have a taxable income and this number is projected to grow to 56.5 crore (78% of the projected workforce in 2047). 

The number of people paying income tax is projected to increase not just because of a rise in income and tax compliance, but also due to a rise in the country's workforce. The report says that India's workforce is projected to grow by 37%. In FY23, India's workforce has 53 crore people (38% of population), and this is projected to grow to 72.5 crore (45% of the population in 2047) 

 

 

My  Take  :

 

Horoscope of a Nation ?

 

Extract :

 

Readers are requested to interpret  this  VISION  DOCUMENT  in terms of my

following note , dated  04 May 2008 :

-------------------------------------------------------

 

Horoscope  & Other ( Equally Fictitious )  Stories

  

Most People live on, on eternal hope of a better tomorrow- even those whose “ past / present ” has been quite good.


 So, you cannot blame those whose “ past / present ” is not-so-good, to yearn for a better tomorrow.

 

 And that makes everyone anxious to “know” what future holds for them.

 

 This human tendency/ weakness is the “ Fundamental ” on which the business of astrologers & futurologists thrives.

  

And what technique do these forecasters employ to predict people’s future ?

 

 They rely on “ Theory of Probability. ”

 

They know that “events” recur with regularity – except that some events occur with greater regularity than some others.

 

 Some events have a greater probability of occurrence than some others.

 

 No one may have taken the trouble to accurately compute the “ frequency of occurrence ( probability) ” of each type of event, in advance.

  

But every event is likely to occur in near future or distant future ( if probability is low).

 

 E.g.

 

 For certain events you can “ predict ” their occurrence TOMORROW with a probability of 0.99, such as

 

 ·         A dacoit / murder in the city

 

 ·         A bus-accident

 

 ·         A boat capsizing etc.

 

 

Whereas, probability of a Political leader getting assassinated TOMORROW will be a very low, 0.001 ,

 

 But probability of one such assassination taking place within next 10 years, goes up to 0.9.

 

So, there are 3 dimensions to an event viz ;

  

·         Type  / Nature of event

 

      Time period within which it will happen

 

      To whom it will happen / affect.

 

 

Now examine :

 

Ø  TYPE / NATURE OF EVENT :-

 

Practically, these can run into thousands.

 

 Ø  TIME-PERIOD / PERIODICITY / FREQUENCY :-

 

An event can happen tomorrow or it can happen after one month or after 10 years or a century.

  

Ø  PERSON AFFECTED :-

 

There are 6 billion humans on this earth.

 

 Now, if you multiply these 3 dimensions, you have literally TRILLIONS

 & TRILLIONS of combinations, with a “ Probability ” attached to each !


This is what , makes “ predicting of future ” so easy !

 

 

·    Something or Else ( event)

 

is likely to happen to,

 

Someone or Else ( Person)

 

At

 

·   Sometime or other ( Time)

 

    As long as you make your PREDICTION sufficiently VAGUE / GENERAL, in respect

    of ,

 

Ø  An Individual

 

 Ø  A given time-period

 

 Ø  Precise nature ( of what will happen),

 

 

You are safe  !

 

 You just cannot be faulted !

  

BECAUSE, WHAT YOU HAVE JUST PREDICTED , IS BOUND TO HAPPEN ,

SOMETIME OR OTHER TO SOMEONE OR OTHER !

 

  

Now if something that is vaguely resembling what was predicted, does actually

happen to even 5 % of the people who “ read” your prediction, their confidence /

faith in your ability to predict future sky-rockets !

 

They start believing that you have some God-given, magical powers to predict

future ( did it not come true for them ? )

 

 Then these 5 % spread the word ( word-of-month) about your magical powers.

  

And the remaining 95% for whom, the “ Prediction” did not come true,

 

Ø  Either forget that they ever read the prediction  OR

    Ø  Believe that it was not “ meant” for them ,  OR

 

 Ø  Hope that your tomorrow’s prediction (about them ) will come true ( the flame

    of eternal hope, keeps burning in their hearts – the hope for a better tomorrow ).

 

 But these 95 % never go out and tell anybody that things did not happen as

 predicted !

 

They don’t want to look silly !

 

They don’t want to appear to be superstitious persons, believing in unscientific,

irrational predictions !

 

 So only the good-word spreads. 



Only the “positive” stories spread.


  

So each such story, brings in more & more person to look-up morning newspaper

to  see, what future holds for them.

 

 Forgotten within 5 minutes but remembered if something ( vaguely) similar did

 happen by the end of the day.

 

 

 

With regards,

 

Hemen Parekh

www.hemenparekh.ai  /  17 Aug 2023

 

 

Tuesday, 15 August 2023

Thank You , Vishal Kapoor

 

Thank You , Vishal Kapoor

( CEO – EESL /   ceo@eesl.co.in  )

  

 

Context :

Now, IoT-enabled ACs that can pay customers for switching off   ……….  Business Line   /  14 Aug 2023


Extract :

Wouldn’t it be nice if you were paid for not switching on the AC during peak hours, or even keeping the cooling not too low? 

 

IoT-enabled air-conditioners can make this happen and Energy Efficiency Services Ltd (EESL) is working towards this. 


A good tool in grid management — balancing supply and demand for electricity — is ‘demand response’, or adjusting demand to supply, rather than the other way around. If EESL’s plan fructifies, it can shave off a slice of the demand during peak hours by incentivising customers to keep their air-conditioners switched off


EESL, the Government of India owned ‘energy services company,’ works to bring about energy efficiency, primarily by aggregating demand and, thereby, hammering down the cost of energy-efficient electrical appliances, which are otherwise typically more expensive.

 

Demand response assumes importance when the contribution of fickle-natured renewables to the total energy in the grid increases — when supply falls, demand can be adjusted, if the appliances are IoT-enabled.


During peak hours, cutting demand may be more cost effective than buying more power to satisfy demand. 


In a recent chat with businessline, EESL’s CEO, Vishal Kapoor, said the company is working on a plan to operationalise demand response with air-conditioners.


This would involve changes in regulations and, hence, could take about a year to be implemented


EESL plans to aggregate demand for 10 million energy-efficient ceiling fans. In India, there are 600-700 million ceiling fans, so with 10 million, the company is just scratching the surface, but it is still a big number, Kapoor said.

 

For urban areas, EESL would focus on the highly-efficient BLDC fans, but for non-urban areas, it would settle for the less-costly induction fans, which are not as energy-efficient as BLDCs, but still better than the conventional fans. BLDCs are of 28-30 Watts, induction fans about 40 W, while the conventional fans are 70 W, he said. 


Again, for chillers, which are used in centralised cooling systems, EESL would work on the ‘ESCO model’, where it would supply energy-efficient chillers, and let the customer pay for it over a period of time.

 

My  Take :

 

Dear Shri Kapoorji ,

 

Congratulations on this initiative, which I hope will someday soon , culminate into turning each of India’s 290 million households , into CARBON CREDIT EARNING constituents , as described in my following e-mail to our Cabinet Ministers :


Ø  Carbon Finance through Carbon Credits  …………………… 12  March  2021

 

Extract :

    Here is a partial list of domestic appliances which consume electricity ( apart from LED bulbs ) :

 

TV sets – Refrigerators – Air Conditioners – Fans – Deep Freezers – Ovens – Electric Stoves – Mixers – Computers – Cloths Washing Machines – Dish Washers – Radios – Tablets – Robotic Floor Sweepers – Massagers – etc

 

Ø     By 2030, all of these must be made “ Energy Efficient Appliances “ , certified

       by Bureau of Energy Efficiency [ BEE ]

 

Ø     Just as was done in respect of ICE vehicles ( BS IV > BS VI compliance ), all

       electric Appliance Manufacturers must be mandated to switch over to

       manufacture of only BEE certified appliances in 4 phases ( April 2022 – 24 – 26-

       28 )

 

Ø     Each such appliance MUST be pre-installed / integrated with SENSORS which

       will continuously monitor its,

 

#   State of Usage ( ON or OFF )

#   Rate of Consumption of electricity ( Units )

 

These INTERNET-CONNECTED appliances will continuously relay /

transmit these data to the SMART ELECTRIC METER installed in each home

 

In turn, each SMART METER will relay / transmit to concerned DISCOM (

and to any other specified govt agency servers ), such usage / consumption

data, through Internet ( IoT / Internet of Everything ).

 

These data-transfer will be separate for EACH INDIVIDUAL APPLIANCE

 

This will enable DISCOM / concerned Agencies, to know / monitor, IN-

EFFICIENT appliances, operating above the CERTIFIED THRESHOLD for

each type of appliance

 

Appliances operating “ above “ the threshold, will be assigned / allotted “

CARBON DEBITS “ , whereas those operating “ below “ the threshold, will

be assigned “ CARBON CREDITS “

 

If the NET of these two is POSITIVE ( + ), that home will be incentivized

by a lower tariff – and vice-versa

 

This model ( of INCENTIVIZATION ) must be further strengthened by

measuring the amount of ROOF TOP Solar Power , flowing into the SMART

METER , with appropriate linkages to CARBON CREDIT

 

This linkage will motivate a large number of households to install ROOF TOP

solar panels

 

This scheme will enable us to take the CARBON MARKET / CARBON CREDIT

/ CARBON FINANCE concept, right inside our 290 MILLION households !

 

Ø    All manufacturers of House-hold Electric Meters must be told to manufacture

      only SMART ELECTRIC METERS , starting April 2022

 

Ø   All DISCOMS to replace existing meters in each and every home, with a SMART

     METER, by April 2024

 

This is only a CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK whose details are not difficult to work

out

 

With regards,


Hemen Parekh

www.hemenparekh.ai  /  16 Aug 2023

 

Related Readings :

 

      A Pre-paid Electricity Meter ?  …………………. 18 May 2017

 Electrifying : Smartly  ……………………………….. 25  Sept  2017

 Smart Meter : No Pending Payments ?........ 08 Dec 2017

 A Smart Move , Shri Singh !  …………………….. 07 June 2018

 Welcome, Prepaid Smart Meters  ………………. 25  Sept  2021

 

 

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