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Wednesday 9 December 2015

A NATION OF NAYSAYERS ?

Arvind Kejriwal wants to conquer the pollution in Delhi

He is asking Delhi motorists to drive their cars on alternate days , depending on their car number , ending with odd or even number

Some ( knowledgeable ? ) people are saying :

" This is a hasty decision . It won't work . You have not analyzed the situation properly . There will be many problems . People will be inconvenienced ... "

But hardly any of these critics have any concrete / constructive / viable / near-term solution to offer !

Many of these very people have been in power during the past 40 years , when they chose to ignore the problem

May be they hoped that the problem will disappear by simply ignoring ! Like an ostrich hiding its head under the sand !

Or , maybe they got " Analysis Paralysis " ( - a chronic disease , rampant among our Policy Makers ! )

Sure , there will be some problems / inconveniences

But none as serious as pollution engulfing Delhi

None will be insurmountable

Each will bring its own solution !

Arvind ,

Do listen to people to uncover practical solutions

But , as Mussolini once said :

" If you want to dig a well in the village , you should consult the villagers

But if you have to declare a war against an enemy , you are on your own "

And , right now pollution is the biggest enemy of Delhi-walas

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hemen parekh

10 Dec 2015

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Friday 4 December 2015

Nothing prettier than PERT !

Economic Times ( 12 Oct 2015 ) carries a report titled :

" Panel set up for Innovation in Govt Projects "

As per this report, the Prime Minister has put together a team that will decide,

- how government projects can be executed using cutting edge technologies and practices

The empowered committee for Innovative Collaborations was set up to incorporate the very latest solutions that science and technology has to offer

My suggestions :

* When any Ministry submits any Project Proposal for Cabinet approval , it must be accompanied by a PERT ( Program Evaluation and Review Technique ) chart , clearly showing all the " Activities " lying along the CRITICAL PATH

( earlier known as the CRITICAL PATH METHOD )

That PERT Chart must accompany a tabulation showing , for each " Activity ",

# Pessimistic Time

# Optimistic Time , and the

# Most likely Time

Since Admiral Rickover , introduced this mandatory requirement for awarding tender to build the first nuclear submarine, some 50 years ago , all US government departments follow this procedure for all govt contracts

* Insist that all the government departments / contractors, responsible for execution of any of these "activities", update the PERT chart status online on the web site of the Project Monitoring Group

* PERT charts for all the projects should be made visible to the general public

* If there is any " slippage " in any activity lying on the CRITICAL PATH , the name of the department or contractor responsible , must appear in bold RED letters , against that activity

This is the only INNOVATION that we need , to ensure that the projects get completed in time and within budget

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hemen parekh

05 Dec 2015

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Perils of Procrastination

CRISIS CRISIS EVERYWHERE / NOT A SOLUTION IN SIGHT !

Parkinson's Law :

Work expands to fill the time available for doing it

Peter's Principle :

In an organizational hierarchy, every employee will rise or get promoted to his or her level of incompetence

My Observation :

By postponing a decision for sufficiently long time, most trivial issues can be turned into crisis situations

Examples :

# 1

More than 27 lakh trucks which are older than 15 years , will be banned from the roads from 1st April 2016

Crisis Implication :

* Movement of goods across India , will drop drastically overnight , with resultant dip in GDP

* At the current rate of local production, it will take 13 years to replace these trucks ! This may necessitate imports of trucks from China - worsening our already unfavorable trade balance !

# 2

From Jan 1 2016 , in city of Delhi , private cars with odd / even ( ending ) numbers , will be allowed on the roads , on alternate days ( as being done in Beijing )

Crisis Implication :

* With totally insufficient and antiquated public transport system , people will spend on the road , an average of 6 hours daily , to / from offices

* Rich will have two cars with odd/even numbers( good news for car makers ! )

# 3

Salaries of Delhi MLAs will get raised by 400 %

Crisis Implication :

MPs and MLAs ( of all the States ) , will pass resolutions , increasing their respective salaries by 800 % !

If same decisions were taken 15 years ago , these would have read :

* 2 lakh trucks to be banned immediately - with 2 lakhs more , each subsequent year

* As in Singapore ,

# drastically raise the cost of owning - and subsequently , operating a private car

# A private car cannot enter CENTRAL DISTRICT , unless occupied by 4 persons

And, as done in many cities of the World ,

# Create dedicated lanes for Buses

# Remove all taxes ( one-time or recurring ) on Electric Vehicles

# Free use of Bicycles ( pickup and leave at destinations ) by public

# Many more Metro lines

* Raise MPs / MLAs salaries every year by a percentage , half of CPI rise %

Just look around and make a list of those seemingly " trivial / postpone-able " issues

Then extrapolate their " Size / Urgency " , to the year 2030

Then await history to repeat itself !

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hemen parekh

05 Dec 2015

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Tuesday 1 December 2015

GET OUT OF THE WAY !

When Shri Modiji went to USA in Sept last , he visited Mark Zuckerberg ( Facebook ) and Elon Musk ( Tesla )

Idea was to learn / find out :

How to go about creating a " Start Up Culture " in India - similar to one prevailing in USA ?

What shall NDA Government do to encourage hundreds of Start Ups to spring up in India ?

We may never know what exactly they told Shri Modiji

But , we can guess that it was somewhat along following lines :

" Let them alone . Get out of their way . "

My Suggestion :

" Enable them to start their ventures with just ONE / SINGLE / ONLINE registration , on web site of Income Tax Department by entering their Aadhar Number / Jan Dhan bank a/c Number , in order to get exempted from Corporate Income Tax / Personal Income Tax , for 10 years "

If such advice sounds somewhat " Out of this World " , here is proof of how US government goes about encouraging American Start Ups , by " Getting Out of the Way "

By reversing decades old Space Law , last week , Barack Obama signed a bill that will allow Private US companies and US citizens , to mine asteroids / mine resources out of them / own the mined materials they find etc !

Would you say, a giant step for " Mankind " or for " American Start-Ups " ?

Idea is to :

* Get rid of unnecessary regulations

* Make it easier for private American Companies to explore Space-Resources commercially

* Unleash America's imagination : De-limit America's horizons

What should be a simple " definition " of a Start Up in India ?

" Any person who is not a salaried employee of another person or Organization and wants to become self employed "

If my suggestion gets implemented , none of those 12 million Indians joining our work-force every year , would want a salaried job !

If you can’t explain it simply, you don’t understand it well enough.

- Albert Einstein

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hemen parekh

02 Dec 2015

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Monday 30 November 2015

WHOLE TRUTH , PLEASE !

Headlines in this morning's News papers are :

With GDP growth rate of 7.4 % in july-sept quarter , India overtakes China !

No doubt , true :

But only half - truth !

The whole truth is :

With base GDP figure of $ 2,000 Billion , India would have managed to add to its GDP , $ 158 Billion @ 7.4 % ( for a whole year , of course )

Whereas ,

With a base GDP of $ 10,000 Billion , China would add to its GDP , $ 640 Billion @ 6.4 %

Let us be proud of our achievements ,

without ever forgetting that our economy is just ONE FIFTH that of China's !

We have a lot of catching-up to do

As Amitabh Kant ( Secretary - DIPP ) keeps drilling in our ears :

India must continue to grow at 9-10 % per year for next 30 years , to pull its 400 million people above the poverty line

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hemen parekh

01 Dec 2015

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Saturday 28 November 2015

GST / GIVE AND TAKE

Dear Shri Modiji / Shrimati Soniaji :

It was statesperson like for you, to reach out to each other last evening , in order to arrive at an agreement on GST

All negotiations have two , initially opposing , parties

No agreement can be arrived at , on the " Terms " of only one of the parties

A customer sold against his will , ceases to be a customer !

Agreements imposed through numerical strength of membership , are bound to get sabotaged

To arrive at a " Lasting Solution " , there must be give and take

Here is my suggestion :

NDA GIVE / OPPOSITION TAKE :

* Accept a cap of 18 % for GST in the Constitutional Amendment Bill

OPPOSITION GIVE / NDA TAKE :

* A provision in Bill to enable the Government of the day , to raise the GST % in

subsequent years , through an enabling provision

This provision ( not mandatory ) , will allow the Government to raise the GST %

through the Annual Central Budget each year

( anyway , Union Budget has to be passed in Lok Sabha , each year )

* The amount by which GST " may " get raised , to be calculated as follows :

# Starting GST % = 18 %

# Assume that , in 2016-17 , CPI rises by 10 %

# Take 5 % of that 10 % rise in CPI . That works out to 0.5 %

# So , in 2017-18 , GST may be raised by 0.5 % , to become 18.5 %

# This is the UPPER LIMIT . Government may choose to revise GST to any

figure less than 18.5 %

This is a perfect FACE SAVING FORMULA / a WIN-WIN situation for both !

This is not a matter of , " WHO is right ? "

This is a question of , " WHAT is right ? "

Carpe Diem ! Cease this moment to strike a deal by today evening !

Good Luck !

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hemen parekh

28 Nov 2015

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Thursday 26 November 2015

SURROGATE COW FARMS ?

Speaking at a Start-Up event at San Jose ( California ) on 27th Sept, PM Shri Modi said :

" When each of the 500 odd towns produce 10 Start-Ups and each of our 600,000 villages produce six small businesses , on a regular basis , we will create an enormous economic momentum and generate a large number of jobs in our country

I want to see the idea and spirit of Start Ups light up the economies and the fortunes of people in rural India "

Entirely doable . Consider the following suggestion :

* Chinese biotechnology firm BoyaLife and South Korea's Sooam Biotech , are constructing in China, World's largest animal cloning factory

* Production will start next year , with an initial capacity for one lakh cattle embryos a year , growing to one million per year

* Dog , racehorse and COW embryos will be produced

Obviously , BoyaLife will need to " rent out " cow-wombs , to grow / nurture these embryos

And that is THE OPPORTUNITY , to be seized by our rural Start-Ups !

By setting up , " Surrogate Cow Farms " of 10 cows each

Then renting out these cow-wombs to BoyaLife , for $ 1,000 per surrogacy ( In city of Anand - Gujarat , human wombs can be rented out for $ 15,000 )

One million cow-wombs will earn these rural Start Ups , $ 1,000 million / year !

At 10 cows per Start Ups , 100,000 Start Ups will be born !

Raising our EXPORT earnings by $ 1,000 million !

And nothing should stop these rural Start Ups from importing embryos of Dogs and Racehorses , and then re-exporting fully grown pets to Europe / America !

I only hope , some MORAL POLICEMEN do not start a controversy by shouting :

" How can we allow our holy Indian cows , to bear the unholy Chinese cattle embryos in their wombs , when we just banned our surrogate human mothers to carry the embryos of Foreign citizens ? "

Of course , it is another story that these very same " moralists " have no love lost for the prostitutes who are forced to " rent out " their very human bodies , in order to survive !

One last request to the concerned Ministers / Secretaries in NDA government :

Please , include these " Surrogate Cow Farms " in your definition of Start Ups in your proposed

" Start Up Policy Document "

It is another matter that , each and every jobless individual ( not earning a salary from some other individual or organization ) , and struggling to become self-employed , qualifies as a Start Up

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hemen parekh

27 Nov 2015

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