Saturday 26 September 2020

Thank You, Adar Poonawala

[ceo.office@cyruspoonawallagroup.com / contact@seruminstitute.com / michael.vernekar@seruminstitute.com ]

Thank you for raising the question that the Government has to answer – sooner than later

Context :

CEO of Serum Institute asks Indian govt: Will it have Rs 80,000 crores available over next one year?

Extract :

Ø "Quick question: will the Government of India have Rs. 80,000 crores available over the next one year ? Because that is what the Ministry of Health needs to buy and distribute the vaccine to everyone in India. This is the next concerning challenge we need to tackle," Poonawalla said.

Ø "I ask this question, because we need to plan and guide, vaccine manufacturers both in India and overseas to service the needs of our country in terms of procurement and distribution," he added.

Ø Vaccine manufacturers intend to sell to governments who will then distribute and vaccinate the Covid vaccine. Poonawalla had told IANS in an interview, "It is too early to comment on the vaccine's price.”

Ø However, we will keep it under Rs 1000. Having said that, our aim is to provide an efficacious and affordable vaccine. We are certain that it will be procured and distributed by governments without charge."

Ø SII will be making one billion doses of COVISHIELD over the next one year for India and other low-and-middle-income countries (GAVI countries).Once we get necessary regulatory approvals, we will start manufacturing in large volumes.

Ø SII has said it will not take profit from the vaccine.

"In the interest of public health and as one of the largest vaccine producers it

is our responsibility to make the vaccine affordable for the public at-large,"

he had said.

===================================================

Dear Adar,

You ask :

Does Govt have Rs 80,000 Crore ?

My answer :

Govt has to find that money NOW , or end up spending 100 times more LATER on looking after / treating millions who will get infected with COVID because they did not / could not, get vaccinated

Your calculations indicate Rs 80,000 Cr for ( say ), 100 crore citizen

That is Rs 800 per vaccine doze

How much “ economic activity “ could we possibly lose if we lose ONE DAY worth of GDP due to 10 crore ( non-vaccinated ) persons getting infected and become “ non-productive “ for 14 days of quarantine ?

In 2019, our GDP was $ 2875 billion = $ 7.9 billion per day ( for 365 days )

That amounts to Rs 55,137 Cr per day !

Hence, we can recover those Rs 80,000 crore in less than 2 days of full economic activity !

Here is another way to justify spending Rs 80,000 crore

I am not an economist but do the following calculations make any sense ?

Ø Assume that, out of 100 crore citizen ( to be vaccinated ), only 55 crore persons were “ GDP Producer “ ( employed + self employed )

Ø These 55 crore persons produce Rs 55,137 Cr of GDP per day ( Rs 1,137 per day per person )

Ø Due to “non-vaccination / Covid infection “, 10 crore persons remained “ non-productive “ for 14 days each ( = 140 crore man-days loss )

Ø Hence, total GDP loss = Rs 1137 / day x 140 cr man-days = Rs 159,180 Crore = twice of Rs 80,000 crore to be allotted by the Government !

==================================================

As far as :

Ø Deciding the “ priorities “ ( of who should get the vaccine first – second …etc )

Ø “ Procurement / Distribution “ of the vaccine ,

I have sent following e-mails to the Cabinet Ministers / NITI Aayog / State CMs etc :

Bill Gates has the same concerns – and similar views ………[ 25 Sept 2020 ]

A Nightmare come true ? ……………………………………………………[ 18 Sept 2020 ]

Rationing of Covid Vaccine ? ………………………………………………..[ 06 July 2020 ]

“ Corona Kavach “ Insurance …………………………………………………[ 07 July 2020 ]

An Appeal to DCGI – and others …………………………………………..[ 09 July 2020 ]

Thank You All …………………………………………………………………………[ 10 July 2020 ]

Probabilities …………………………………………………………………………..[ 19 July 2020 ]

Congratulations , Sid Chakravarthy ………………………………………[ 24 July 2020 ]

Thank You , Cabinet Secretary ……………………………………………..[ 07 Aug 2020 ]

===================================================

With regards,

Hemen Parekh / hcp@RecruitGuru.com / 27 Sept 2020

Friday 25 September 2020

Bill Gates has the same concerns – and similar views

Here is what Bill Gates has to say about who should get COVID vaccine first – second – and so on .

Who should get what priority ?

As we get a vaccine approved in the next 4 months, India can play a big role: Bill Gates
Bodhisatva Ganguli , Sept 24 , Economic Times

Extract from interview with Bill Gates :

Who should be vaccinated first? How does a country decide that?

A vaccine has two properties. One is that it prevents you from getting sick, and there you’d want to go for elderly people.

The other thing a vaccine does is it reduces transmission, and there, you want to go for the health workers, people in nursing homes, police, teachers in schools...

So, each country is going to have an interesting challenge. (Infosys co-founder) Nandan Nilekani has talked about using the digital infrastructure for people to register that they want the vaccine and fill out some facts, and then hear, okay, who’s a provider nearby and what’s your priority ranking when there’s still those constraints

My big focus has been to make sure the volumes are very high, so these very difficult trade-offs about who should get it become a bit easier, because you just have so much volume that it’s not in super scarce supply.

It will be interesting for India, whether it allows some percentage of the vaccines made in India to go to other developing countries which don’t have these amazing vaccine manufacturers, like India does

===================================================

In my following blog / email , I wrote :

Rationing of Covid Vaccine ? ……………………………………………………….[ 06 July 2020 ]

Who are those “most in need“?

Ø People deserving highest priorities are :

Ø Healthcare Workers ( Doctors – Nurses – Lab Technicians etc )

Ø Police personnel

Ø Personnel from Essential Services

Ø Home Delivery persons…… ( This is not a comprehensive list )

How to determine these priorities , scientifically / un-biasedly , for 700 million people ?

But , if meticulously compiled and centrally processed ( with help of Artificial Intelligence ), following data, compiled uniformly at source, could determine those

“ VACCINATION PRIORITIES “ :

[ A ] PERSONAL DATA

Ø Name / Birthdate ( for Age ) / Gendre / Contact Details / Aadhar

number

[ B ] LOCATION DATA

Ø Permanent Address / Current Address ( State – Jilla – City – locality ) /

Red Zone / Containment

[ C ] FAMILY DATA

Ø Details of Parents / Siblings

[ D ] HEALTH HISTORY

Ø Details of recent illnesses - morbidity / Medicines given ( including for

Covid treatment ) / Hospitals where treated / Names & License

Number of Doctor who treated

[ E ] ETHNIC DATA

Ø Race / Religion / Language ( Mother tongue )

[ F ] EDUCATIONAL DATA

Ø Graduate – Under Graduate – Illiterate etc

[ G ] EMPLOYMENT DATA

Ø Employed – Unemployed – Self employed

[ H ] INCOME DATA

Ø Monthly Income ( to determine whether RICH – MIDDLE CLASS –

POOR )

As far as India’s moral obligation to supply the vaccine to other poor counties , here is what I proposed :

A Nightmare come true ? ……………………………………..[ 18 Sept 2020 ]

Extract :

India is claimed to be manufacturing 60 % of the total vaccine production of the entire world ( with allegedly , SERUM INSTITUTE – Pune supplying 50 % of world supply )

That imposes on India, a MORAL RESPONSIBILITY to help out poor / covid affected countries, who do not have their own manufacturing facilities, nor the money to import expensive vaccines made by US-EU etc

At the “ World level “, we cannot dictate other countries what distribution regulation they should adopt

But, nothing stops Central Government from announcing the following RULES for the Indian Vaccine Manufacturers :

Ø You will email ( to DCGI – Drug Controller General of India / ICMR and the

Commerce Ministry ), your weekly / monthly, production / sales figures (

including any vaccines imported in bulk for re-packaging or as vials )

Ø You can locally sell vaccine, only to the Central and State Governments (-

their notified agencies ) under BULK PURCHASE CONTRACTS

Ø In any given month, you will be allowed to EXPORT, 20 % of the dozes that

you have actually “delivered “to local governments during the preceding

month. For such exports, you will need to apply – and obtain from the

Commerce Ministry – an EXPORT LICENCE

( If you have delivered 10 lakh dozes locally in Nov 2020 , you will be issued

an export license for exporting 2 lakh dozes in Dec 2020 )

Ø To get an Export License, you will need mention the DESTINATION (

countries to which exporting ).

Commerce Ministry will want to ascertain that you are going to export to “

COVID affected POOR countries “ – and not to RICH countries

=================================================

With regards,

Hemen Parekh / hcp@RecruitGuru.com / 26 Sept 2020

Thursday 24 September 2020

Selling Farm Laws before selling Farm Crops

A few days back, Parliament passed following bills, claimed to be “ Farmer – friendly “:

Ø Farmers Produce Trade and Commerce ( Promotion and Facilitation ) Bill 2020 ( Free Market )

Ø Farmers ( Empowerment and Protection ) Agreement of Price Assurance and Farm Services Bill 2020 ( Contract Farming )

Ø Essential Services ( Amendment ) Bill 2020 ( Unlimited Stock )

( https://www.livelaw.in/know-the-law/explained-the-3-farmers-bills-and-the-controversies-surrounding-them-163375 )

Some 18 opposition parties have got together and decided to launch a Nation-wide agitation to protest against these Acts

Opposition parties finding fault with government-sponsored bills, is nothing new. Nor any undisciplined behavior in parliament, much of a surprise

If however, these protests spill-over across entire country, then we can conclude that :

Ø Government has miserably failed in “ Convincingly Selling “ the “ Farmer-Friendly “ provisions of these bills to the farmers

Ø Opposition has admirably succeeded in “ Convincingly Misleading “ the farmers , by raising doubts / fears

Here, I would like to talk about just one law – Contract Farming – where the fears are :

Ø Farmers say corporates will have upper hand in fixing prices and resolving dispute in courts

Ø They will not want to deal with small farmers

Govt says : Not true ! ( Why are Modi govt’s ‘ Farmer-friendly ‘laws facing protests

Industry leaders say : ( Contract farming to help farmers, says industry )

Extract :

Ø It will help increase income for farmers, particularly the small and marginal ones, as they will get better access to good quality inputs and better farm practices

Ø “A deeper engagement between the farmers and food processors or retailers helps in guiding the farmers align the crop varieties, quality, farm management practices etc with what the market wants,” said S Sivakumar, head, Agri & Tech, ITC Limited.

Ø Besides, long-term contracts with farmers will justify the higher investments made by companies on technology and farms, said Ashok Sharma, president – agriculture sector & MD and CEO –Mahindra Agri Solutions Ltd, (MASL), the agri-business initiative of the Mahindra Group.

Ø The companies will implement best practices on usage of seeds and farming techniques with a focus on technology to bring in efficiencies

===================================================

It is high time, Central Government / established Agro-processing Companies and Agro-business Start-ups, launch a massive campaign to EDUCATE the farmers by sharing with them the following examples of how TECHNOLOGICAL INPUTS are revolutionizing farms in the developed countries and raising the farmer’s income :

( Source : The Future is Faster than you think / Peter Diamandis + Steven Kotler / pages : 202 – 205 )

[ A ] …Apeel Sciences

…. Is using biomimicry and material science to take on the problem of food waste. Apeel has found a way to use completely natural, plant-derived materials to make cutin in te lab, where it can be sprayed onto food ( or the food can be dipped in it ). It’s odorless, tasteless, colorless, and food coated with it is still considered organic. Avocados, protected in this manner, take 60 percent longer to soften and are already available at most major American grocery stores

[ B ]…. Plenty Unlimited Inc

…………… With over $ 200 million funding, Plenty is taking a smart tech approach to indoor agriculture. Plants grow on twenty-foot-high towers, monitored by tens of thousands of cameras and sensors, and optimized by big data machine learning. This allows to pack forty plants into the space previously occupied by one. It also produces yields 350 times greater than outdoor farmland, and uses less than 1 percent as much water. And rather than bespoke veggies for the wealthy few, Plenty’s process allow them to knock 20 to 35 percent off the costs of traditional grocery stores. To date, Plenty has their flagship operation in south San Francisco ; a one-hundred-thousand-square-foot farm in Kent, Washington ; an indoor farm in the United Arab Emirates; and they have started construction on over three hundred farms in China

[ C ]…. Aero-Farms

On the other side of US, in a repurposed seventy-thousand-square foot factory in Newark, New Jersey, a company called Aero-Farms has figured out how to grow over 2 million pounds of leafy greens a year with neither sun nor soil. Instead, inside their facility, rows of AI-controlled LEDs provide the exact wavelength of light each plant needs to thrive. Using aeroponics, nutrients are misted directly onto the plant’s roots, so no soil is required. Rather, plants are suspended in a growth mesh fabric made from recycled water bottles. And here too, sensors, cameras, and machine learning govern the entire process.

[ D ]… Iron Ox

Iron Ox has designed a thousand-pound robot that can tote around eight-hundred-pound growing containers

[ E ]…. Perfect Day Foods

… has figured out how to make cheese without need for cows. By blending gene sequencing with 3-D printing and fermentation science, they’ve created a line of animal-free dairy products

GENERAL OBSERVATIONS ( in this book ) :

Ø The average American meal travels 1500 to 2500 miles to get to your plate

Ø 40 percent of the food in United States is never eaten. Either it rots in the field or ends up in a landfill

Ø If it takes two weeks for food to make it to your table-a not uncommon travel time- it can reduce the nutritional value by as much a 45 percent

Ø Beyond eliminating travel time, VERTICAL FARMS solve a number of other problems. Since they are completely closed environments, the need for pesticides also disappears. As does the need for water. Relying on hydroponics and aeroponics, VERTICAL FARMS allow us to grow crops with 90 percent less water than traditional agriculture – which is critical on our increasingly thirsty planet

Ø One out of eight Americans will go to bed hungry tonight, yet farm animals consume 30 percent of the world’s food crops

Ø Meat production accounts for 70 percent of global water use. Compared to 1500 liters required to produce ONE KG of wheat, it takes 15,000 liters to produce ONE KG of beef, meaning there’s enough water in an adult steer to float a US Navy destroyer

Ø ==================================================

This is how AI could feed the world’s hungry while sustaining the planet

Agro-tech Companies using AI for food production, listed in this article :

Ø Prospera

Transforming the way food is grown with Data and Artificial Intelligence

Ø Root AI

We believe tomorrow’s farms won’t look like the endless outdoor crop rows we

remember and that the security and quality of our food will no longer be

limited by an increasingly unpredictable climate or access to land.

- and quality of our food will no longer be limited by an increasingly

unpredictable climate or access to land.

Instead, hyper efficient indoor farms will grow delicious and chemical free

produce. At Root, we are on a mission to create the intelligent

robots that will help growers build the farms of the future.

Ø Not Co

Plant based food that looks, smells, functions and tastes better than animal-

based

Ø Fazenda Futuro

We are the first Brazilian foodtech to create plant-based meat with the same texture , juicy and the taste of meat

Other observations :

Roughly 820 million do not get enough to eat on a daily basis. SDG 2, Zero Hunger, aims to “end hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition, and promote sustainable agriculture

With global population projected to expand to almost 10 billion by 2050, experts estimate that feeding the planet will require farmers to grow 69% more calories than they did in 2006

The World Economic Forum recently launched a partnership with the Government of India and the State of Telangana to identify high-value use cases for AI in agriculture, develop innovative AI solutions, and drive their widespread adoption.

===================================================

Today’s Business Line carries following news report :

We are ready to talk to farmers : Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar

Quotes :

Ø “ If anyone has any doubts, and I want to appeal to all farmer organizations, they are welcome to have a frank discussion with us any time of the day. We are ready even at midnight to address the farmers’ concerns “, said Tomar

Ø “ The farmer was forced to sell in the mandis…..He had to bring his produce to the mandi where te crop was auctioned and he was forced to sell for fear of transporting the produce back in case he is not able to dispose of it in the mandi “

Dear Shri Tomarji

[ nstomaroffice@gmail.com / ns.tomar@sansad.nic.in ],

I am sure those farmer organizations would send their delegates to meet you. When they do, I request you to consider telling them following :

Ø Around the world, companies employing new technologies have started “ revolutionizing “ the agriculture ( hand over print outs of this E Mail )

Ø On your own, you may not be able to get these companies to “ License “ their technologies to individual Indian farmer but they would readily license Indian Companies who sign an agreement with you for CONTRACT FARMING . In turn, these Indian Companies can train you on implementing these technologies on your farms

Ø On part of the Central Government, we will undertake following PRO-ACTIVE

actions for bringing these technologies to India :

# We will incentivize our 75 Agriculture Universities and 700 + Agriculture

Colleges , to set up on their premises,

AGRI-TECH INNOVATION CENTRES,

which will offer subjects on “NEW AGRI-TECH“, collaborate with Agri-

Tech Companies / Universities around the World and train our farmers

# We will incentivize these foreign AGRI-TECH companies to set up “

PROTOTYPE “ operations in India for DEMO purposes

We will offer them free land / electricity + expenses incurred in training

Indian farmers .

There will be one such demo-center in each of our 718 districts.

# We will urge companies entering into CONTRACT FARMING agreements

with a farmer, to construct on the farm premises of that farmer,

GRAIN STORAGE SILOS / COLD STORAGE ROOMS ,

to enable a farmer to store his produce for a longer period, without

perishing under our harsh climate.

We will allow the concerned Companies to set off expenses incurred in

constructing these facilities towards their CSR obligations.

Alternatively , we will consider use of already announced Agri Fund of Rs

1 LakhxCrore , for this purpose . We have also provided Rs 700 crore for

setting up COLD CHAIN across the country

# As it is, farm income is already exempt from Income Tax.

To enable rapid adoption of CONTRACT FARMING , we will exempt the “

Profit “ that a Company will make by “ Value Added through Processing “,

of farm produce purchased by entering into CONTRACT FARMING

This provision will be for 5 years and will encourage thousands of

Companies to enter into CONTRACT FARMING agreements with farmers.

This will expand the market and bring in COMPETITION among these

Corporate Buyers , leading to higher prices for the farmers

# On the existing Govt portal ( e-NAM ) , we will introduce a section called

CONTRACT FARMING ,

where the farmers desirous of entering into contract farming agreements,

will submit their full details ( Name / Farm Size / Location of farm / main

crops / past yields per acre / no of workers / family members engaged /

existing loan liabilities / water availability etc )

Companies on look out for CONTRACT FARMING can search this database

( of course , after due registration with full details of the Company ) and

shortlist / select potential farmers and send them their “ Purchase

Proposal “ ( by filling in an Online Standard Form ).

Central Government would have full access to these contracts entered

Online between the parties and ensure that no contract is entered into

below the MSP for the concerned crop . No one else can see these

contracts but the parties concerned would have a provision to EDIT these

This will enable the Govt to know the INPUT COST for the “ Contracting

Company “ , and link it with the “ Profit made through Processing Value

addition “, in order to grant tax exemption described earlier

--------------------------------

With regards,

Hemen Parekh / hcp@RecruitGuru.com / 25 Sept 2020

CC :

kkailashchoudhary@gmail.com / Kailash.c14@nic.in

dr.bsshastri@gmail.com

====================================================================================

References :

LIST OF TOP B.SC (AGRICULTURE) COLLEGES IN INDIA BASED ON 2020 RANKING

Agricultural Universities

Ø Govt Owned Agriculture TV Channel / DD Kisan

Ø Atal Innovation Mission / Atal Innovation Labs in Schools / Atal Innovation Incubation

===========================================

Added on 02 July 2023 :

Govt signs MoU with Pixxel Space to deploy pathfinder satellites for building modelson crop-mapping