Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do.

There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Friday, 19 February 2016

A Laughing Matter ?



Last evening, TV channels showed the traditional " Halwa Ceremony " in the Finance Ministry building

With this , the process of preparing / printing of the Union Budget starts

The people involved will stay " imprisoned / incommunicado " till FM completes his budget speech on 29th Feb , to ensure that the budget provisions do not leak out

That does not stop the experts ( - and some non-experts like me ) , to make predictions such as :

*  Revising limits for personal Income Tax slabs

*  Reducing rates for TDS

*  Rationalizing procedures ( assessment scrutiny / tax refunds / tax litigations etc )

*  Launching new Schemes / Funds for savings and investments

*  Increase / decrease of Excise rates on products ( watch out smokers and drinkers ! )

*  Increase / decrease of Import Duties on products to protect local industries / stop dumping from China

*  Recapitalization of Banks ( to write-off Rs 7 lakh*crore of NPA with tax payers money )

*  Write-off DISCOM debts of Rs 4 lakh*crores by passing the buck to State Governments ( tax payer burden ? )

*  Write off loans to farmers - what with elections looming in 5 States ( but I support this  )


News papers report that the Government have received budget suggestions from some 7,000  persons and that , this time around , Prime Minister himself is closely involved in the budget making exercise

Now , with all this obsession / seriousness / paranoia , surely this secrecy surrounding the budget document , cannot be a laughing matter  !


Unless you ask ,

* some foreign software geeks ( eg: Sundar Pichai / Satya Nadela / Vivek Ranadive / Ray Kurzweil etc )

* some Indian BIG  DATA  ANALYTICS geeks ( Mukund / Krishnan / Sanjay / Srikant / Raj / Anurag etc )


Because , if you do , they will laugh and tell you :


"  Just give us the actual budget documents of the past 60 years ( including the accompanying budget speeches ) and we will process these documents using Big Data Analytics software and predict what will be the provisions in the forthcoming budget ( with a probability of 99.7 % - ie ; plus or minus THREE standard deviation )


And then , we will process those past budget speeches with a PARAPHRASING software ( ala Kurzweilai.net ) and give you an advance print-out of Shri Arun Jaitleyji's speech on 29th Feb  "


But of course , Shri Jaitleyji could cheat the PREDICTIVE ANALYTICS , by announcing following unpredictable  :

*   Total Abolition of Personal Income Tax ( or at least , reducing incremental tax rates in each higher slab )

*   Decreasing Incremental Corporate Tax Rates , linked with each higher slab of " Permanent Employee Number "

*   Perpetual Amnesty Scheme for all CASH deposits made in Jan Dhan Accounts , if invested in tax-free Infra SPVs

*   Transfer of 1.8% of GST (from 18%) into buyers' PPF a/c , to ensure all citizens get PPF a/c for tax-free savings

     This amount to be used for paying premium for COMPREHENSIVE HEALTH INSURANCE to cover all illnesses

*   Introduction of plastic Currency Notes of Rs 500/1000, embedded with micro RFID sensors ( stop Black Money )

     Surest way to ensure that almost all payments are made thru official channels !

*   Introduction of BTT ( Bank Transaction Tax ) @ 2% to yield Rs 15 lakh*crore of revenue ( against revenue loss
    of  Rs 2.5 lakh*crores caused by abolishing Personal Income Tax )



Now such announcements , besides being " Unpredictable " , would meet Shri Narendra Modiji's following announcement at Make in India week on 13th Feb  :


There is no time for incremental changes . We want a quantum jump  "


Dear Shri Jaitleyji  :

How about an " Incremental Quantum Jump " by

*   Announcing these unpredictable on 29 Feb 2016

*   Spreading out actual implementation over the next 5 years


That could be the surest way to win 300 seats in 2019 Lok Sabha elections !


Any other budget provision / announcement , would be a laughing matter  


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hemenparekh.in / blogs

20  Feb  2016

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