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The Inescapable March of Automation: A Decade of Doubled Robot Demand

It doesn't surprise me to read that global robot demand in factories has doubled over the last ten years, as highlighted in the latest statistics from the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) Global Robot Demand in Factories Doubles Over 10 Years. In fact, I've been observing this trend for quite some time, and my writings over the years have consistently pointed towards this very outcome.

Recalling Past Predictions

Years ago, I wrote about the looming employment challenge in places like India, warning that the rise of automation was an unstoppable force. A blog post from April 2016, titled "Robots Robots Everywhere, not a Soul to See!", directly addressed this future. While contemplating its immediate impact on India, I noted that such a scenario was already becoming a reality in countries like Japan.

At that time, the figures for robot population were already telling:

• Japan: 310,508
• USA: 168,623
• Germany: 161,988
• South Korea: 138,883
• China: 96,924
• Canada: 18,387
• UK: 15,046
• India: 7,840
• Brazil: 7,576

These statistics, from less than a decade ago, were read in the context of significant global economic shifts: Japan's population shrinking by a million in ten years, the minimum wage for unskilled labor in New York and California rising to $15 per hour (approximately Rs 1000 per hour at the time), starkly contrasting with a fresh Civil Engineering graduate in India earning Rs 15,000 per month (around Rs 75 per hour). There were also widespread demonstrations in European countries over austerity measures impacting employee benefits.

This led me to reflect further on what I had termed the "SECOND INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION?" in a September 2015 blog post. I observed that the First Industrial Revolution, driven by the steam engine, multiplied human power and boosted productivity significantly, but took over a century to reach developing nations. These nations were often exploited, forced to export raw materials cheaply and import finished goods at high prices.

However, as emerging markets, particularly China, began to catch up, leveraging cheap labor to become the "Factory of the World," developed countries started to feel the pressure. They are not content with a lowered "Standard of Living" and are actively ushering in the Second Industrial Revolution through robots.

I envisioned a future where robots would be ubiquitous:

• Manufacturing cars, appliances, machinery, and virtually anything.
• 3D printing products from designs downloaded from the internet.
• Managing healthcare in hospitals.
• Serving food in restaurants.
• Carrying out office jobs.
• Teaching in schools.
• Providing entertainment.
• Robots everywhere!

And these robots possess attributes that fundamentally change the labor landscape:

• They work 24 hours a day and do not ask for a salary.
• They do not "go slow" or go on strike.
• They do not demand "Quotas / Reservations".
• They do not take holidays or "Sick Leave".
• They do not resign or demand promotion.
• They neither envy other robots nor sabotage.
• They do not complain against unpleasant work.
• They do not get tired and need rest.
• Their production does not drop after working for 8 hours.
• They do not demand "Overtime Pay" at 200% of normal rates.
• They perfectly coordinate their tasks with other robots.
• They willingly "retire" at any age, whenever required.
• They do not demand Unemployment/Retirement Benefits.
• They may, someday, even provide emotional support when you are sick or depressed!

Crucially, I predicted that this Second Industrial Revolution would not take a hundred years to reach India. With the spread of "DIGITAL INDIA", the internet, and mobile apps, it might take no more than 20 years. This raises a fundamental question: Should we try to stall its arrival, fearing it will create further unemployment? Or, will our Self-Employed individuals and Start-Ups expedite its arrival and imaginatively use it to create 100 new jobs for each job lost?

To address this challenge, I advocated for proactive governmental measures, suggesting that converting millions of job-seekers into job-creators would entirely depend upon the Union Government quickly passing what I referred to as the "Start Up Act - 2015." This perspective from 2015-2016 underscores my long-held belief in the transformative, and often disruptive, power of automation, a trend that is clearly accelerating as evidenced by the IFR's latest findings.

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Regards, [Hemen Parekh] Any questions? Feel free to ask my Virtual Avatar at hemenparekh.ai