The global trade landscape, ever shifting, has once again brought to the forefront the challenges of protectionism, particularly with the re-emergence of discussions around tariffs, such as the 50% tariffs proposed by the Donald Trump administration on India. It's a situation that has prompted the Modi government to approve a new Export Promotion Mission, a commendable effort to bolster India's export capabilities and counter these impacts "Trump’s 50% tariffs on India: Will Modi government’s Export Promotion Mission be able to counter impact? Top weaknesses & challenges - The Times of India".\n\nHowever, as I reflect on this, I find myself returning to thoughts I shared years ago. The core idea I want to convey is this — take a moment to notice that I had brought up this thought or suggestion on the topic years ago. I had already predicted this outcome or challenge, and I had even proposed a solution at the time. Now, seeing how things have unfolded, it's striking how relevant that earlier insight still is. Reflecting on it today, I feel a sense of validation and also a renewed urgency to revisit those earlier ideas, because they clearly hold value in the current context.\n\nBack in 2018, I wrote about "A #TradeWar Epidemic ?" "A #TradeWar Epidemic ?". I highlighted then how countries, including the USA under Donald Trump, were increasingly looking to protect local industries and jobs through import duties. I specifically noted the US's actions regarding steel and aluminum, and even an "AntiDumping Duty" on stainless steel flanges from India, alongside a WTO complaint against our export subsidies. My prediction was clear: trade wars would intensify, and multilateralism would gradually give way to bilateralism. We are certainly witnessing the echoes of that prediction today. I recall US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer's stance at the time, stating that such export subsidy programs harm American workers by creating an uneven playing field.\n\nIn that same piece, I argued that the only way for India to truly thrive in such a competitive, protectionist world was to transform into a "LOW-COST-ECONOMY." This meant implementing fundamental reforms to lower costs across manpower, materials, money, space, management, compliance, and even the systemic issues of corruption and non-governance. This was, and remains, a foundational solution, moving beyond mere subsidies or temporary measures. I had hoped that Commerce Minister Nirmala Sitharaman [https://in.linkedin.com/in/nsitharaman] and Commerce Secretary Rita Teaotia would defend India's position at the WTO, but stressed the need for deeper structural reforms. As Ajay Sahai, Director General of FIEO, also pointed out, export subsidies should be eliminated gradually.\n\nThe current Export Promotion Mission, with its ₹25,060 crore allocation over six years, aims to support MSMEs and offer both financial (NIRYAT PROTSAHAN) and non-financial (NIRYAT DISHA) assistance. Yet, concerns raised by experts like Ajay Srivastava [https://in.linkedin.com/in/ajay-srivastava-0459a22b], founder of Global Trade and Research Initiative (GTRI), are precisely about the practical challenges of implementation. He points to the mission's conceptual stage, pending digital platforms, insufficient annual funding, and the critical need for interdepartmental coordination. The shift of financial program authority to DGFT, previously under RBI oversight, also presents potential operational bottlenecks.\n\nThese concerns resonate with my previous observations on the potential of MSMEs, which I detailed in my 2015 blog, "Export Strategy ?" "Export Strategy ?". I underscored the vast, untapped export potential of India's 30 million MSMEs, lamenting how they lagged far behind their counterparts in smaller neighboring countries. I emphasized that boosting MSME exports could create millions of jobs, recalling even then how Minister Shri Kalraj Mishra had spoken of job creation under the Prime Minister’s Employment Guarantee Programme (PMEGP).\n\nFurthermore, my earlier calls for empowering foreign missions to act as strategic salesmen for Indian exports, and focusing on services exports "Commerce ministry, Indian mission officials of 20 nations to discuss ways to boost exports in Jan 6-8 meet", are complementary aspects of a robust export strategy that must go hand-in-hand with internal reforms.\n\nThe challenge presented by Donald Trump's tariffs, while significant, is a symptom of a larger geopolitical and economic shift that I believe I foresaw. The Modi government's Export Promotion Mission is a step in the right direction, but its success hinges on overcoming the deep-seated challenges of execution and resource allocation, and most importantly, on fundamentally transforming India into a low-cost, high-quality economy capable of competing on its own terms.\n\n---\n\nRegards, \nHemen Parekh\n\n---\n\nOf course, if you wish, you can debate this topic with my Virtual Avatar at : hemenparekh.ai\n
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