DNA ( 18 Aug ) carries an interview of Tony Seba ( Lecturer of Entrepreneurship
, Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford University )
Title : Electric Cars to
rule Indian roads by 2020
Following is an excerpt :
========================
PREDICTION
Internal Combustion vehicles which run on petrol and diesel could
be wiped out globally in as little as 8-10 years
BACKGROUND
Passenger vehicles in India in financial year 2016-17, grew at 9.24
per cent, the fastest rate of growth in 6 years, largely on the backs of
utility vehicles , most of which run on diesel, which is much cheaper than
petrol
PARALLEL
“ Remember at the time of Smartphones ,
India was the country which was the quickest to adopt the smartphone culture
In India,
the transport disruption can happen sooner
“
FINANCIAL
SAVINGS
India stands to
save as much as $ 6,000 ( Rs 4 lakh ) a year per family as transportation cost
will be 10 TIMES cheaper
As a nation too, India , which imports about 80 % of its crude
requirements , will stand to save on its import bill
POLLUTION
Electric vehicles emit about 95 % less
pollutants compared to cars that run on fossil fuels
With
electric vehicles, the emissions will come down and health-wise , it will be
very important
OWNING
Vs DRIVING
“ In totality an owner on average, uses 4
PER CENT of his car
OLA and UBER use 40 PER CENT
Hence ,
instead of parking, the latter will be moving around . This means, if they are
EVs ( Electric Vehicles ), there will be 70 % fewer cars
COST
PER KM
When we use Electric Vehicles, the “ cost per km “ goes down 10
TIMES, as compared to combustion vehicles
Every time there is a difference of 10 TIMES in prices, disruption
happens and for the vehicle sector it will take 10 YEARS for disruption to
happen
WORKING
LIFE
Electric vehicles have a working life that is THREE TIMES that of a
petrol or diesel car
They also have only 20 MOVING PARTS , compared to 100 for regular
cars
RESALE
VALUE
Resale value of cars will also go down, resulting in less purchase
of such cars
OIL
PRICES
Globally,
oil will heat peak demand by 2020 at 100 million barrels a day and by 2030, it
will dip to 70 million barrels a day
FUTURE OF PETROL / DIESEL CARS
By 2020 – 2021, no new
Combustible vehicles will be sold
I suppose Tony
Seba reached above conclusions based on following :
·
Announcements by different
countries , to completely switch over to Electric Vehicles :
[ Planned switch over by
Year /
Share of Electric cars in 2016 ]
Netherlands ………… [ 2025
/ 6.39 % ]
France………………….. [ 2040 / 1.46 % ]
UK………………………… [ 2040 / 1.41 % ]
Norway………………… [ 2025 / 28.76 % ]
India…………………….. [ 2030 / 0.02
% ]
·
No of Electric cars likely by
2040 ….. 530 Million globally
India plans
to replace its entire current vehicle population of 200 million by 2030 + all
the petrol / diesel vehicles that will get manufactured between now and 2030 ,
although one estimate says , EVs will constitute only 44 % of total fleet in
India by 2030
It would not be out of place to ask :
Will India have the required amount of Electric Power to charge all
these EVs by 2030 ?
And , will it be CLEAN POWER ( from solar / wind etc ) or will it be DIRTY POWER ( from coal ? )
And , will it be CLEAN POWER ( from solar / wind etc ) or will it be DIRTY POWER ( from coal ? )
For context
, per capita consumption of power ( in 2014 ) was :
Norway………………..
23,000 kwh
USA…………………….. 12,973 kwh
India…………………… 1,075 kwh
·
Currently , EVs consume 6 TW
of electricity globally . By 2040 , that will rise to 1800 TW ( approx. 5 % of
global power demand )
·
Current manufacturing capacity
( globally ) for Lithium-ion batteries , is 90 GW , which is expected to rise
to 270 GW by 2021
·
35 giga-factories like the one built by Tesla , needed in next 13
years !
To know why this may not be
possible , read :
·
Li-ion battery costs have
fallen by 70 % since 2010 / from $ 1000 per kwh to about $ 300 per kwh
By 2030 ,
this is expected to fall to $ 73 per kwh !
Battery constitutes nearly 50 % - 70 % of EV
selling price
For further info ( on the incoming
disruption ) read :
18
Aug 2017
www.hemenparekh.in
/ blogs