Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Thursday, 17 August 2017

An Electric Future ?



DNA ( 18 Aug ) carries an interview of Tony Seba ( Lecturer of Entrepreneurship , Disruption and Clean Energy at Stanford University )


Title : Electric Cars to rule Indian roads by 2020


Following is an excerpt :


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PREDICTION

Internal Combustion vehicles which run on petrol and diesel could be wiped out globally in as little as 8-10 years






BACKGROUND

Passenger vehicles in India in financial year 2016-17, grew at 9.24 per cent, the fastest rate of growth in 6 years, largely on the backs of utility vehicles , most of which run on diesel, which is much cheaper than petrol




PARALLEL


“ Remember at the time of Smartphones , India was the country which was the quickest to adopt the smartphone culture


In India, the transport disruption can happen sooner  “





FINANCIAL  SAVINGS


India stands to save as much as $ 6,000 ( Rs 4 lakh ) a year per family as transportation cost will be 10 TIMES cheaper


As a nation too, India , which imports about 80 % of its crude requirements , will stand to save on its import bill





POLLUTION


Electric vehicles emit about 95 % less pollutants compared to cars that run on fossil fuels


With electric vehicles, the emissions will come down and health-wise , it will be very important




OWNING  Vs  DRIVING


“ In totality an owner on average, uses 4 PER CENT of his car


OLA and UBER use 40 PER CENT


Hence , instead of parking, the latter will be moving around . This means, if they are EVs ( Electric Vehicles ), there will be 70 % fewer cars





COST  PER  KM


When we use Electric Vehicles, the “ cost per km “ goes down 10 TIMES, as compared to combustion vehicles


Every time there is a difference of 10 TIMES in prices, disruption happens and for the vehicle sector it will take 10 YEARS for disruption to happen





WORKING  LIFE


Electric vehicles have a working life that is THREE TIMES that of a petrol or diesel car


They also have only 20 MOVING PARTS , compared to 100 for regular cars





RESALE  VALUE


Resale value of cars will also go down, resulting in less purchase of such cars





OIL  PRICES


Globally, oil will heat peak demand by 2020 at 100 million barrels a day and by 2030, it will dip to 70 million barrels a day





FUTURE OF PETROL / DIESEL CARS


By 2020 – 2021,  no new Combustible vehicles will be sold





I suppose Tony Seba reached above conclusions based on following :


·         Announcements by different countries , to completely switch over to Electric Vehicles :

Planned switch over by Year  /  Share of Electric cars in 2016  ]


Netherlands …………  [ 2025  /  6.39 % ]


France………………….. [ 2040 /  1.46 %   ]


UK…………………………  [ 2040 /  1.41 %   ]


Norway…………………  [  2025 /  28.76 % ]


India…………………….. [ 2030 /   0.02 %   ]



·         No of Electric cars likely by 2040 ….. 530 Million globally

India plans to replace its entire current vehicle population of 200 million by 2030 + all the petrol / diesel vehicles that will get manufactured between now and 2030 , although one estimate says , EVs will constitute only 44 % of total fleet in India by 2030



It would not be out of place to ask :
Will India have the required amount of Electric Power to charge all these EVs by 2030 ?  



And , will it be CLEAN POWER ( from solar / wind etc ) or will it be DIRTY POWER ( from coal ? )




For context , per capita consumption of power ( in 2014 ) was :


Norway……………….. 23,000 kwh


USA……………………..  12,973 kwh


India……………………     1,075 kwh



·         Currently , EVs consume 6 TW of electricity globally . By 2040 , that will rise to 1800 TW ( approx. 5 % of global power demand )


·         Current manufacturing capacity ( globally ) for Lithium-ion batteries , is 90 GW , which is expected to rise to 270 GW by 2021


·         35 giga-factories like the one built by Tesla , needed in next 13 years !


To know why this may not be possible , read :


·         
Li-ion battery costs have fallen by 70 % since 2010 / from $ 1000 per kwh to about $ 300 per kwh


By 2030 , this is expected to fall to $ 73 per kwh !


     Battery constitutes nearly 50 % - 70 % of EV selling price





For further info ( on the incoming disruption ) read :


TonySeba stands vindicated  (  16  March  2017  )


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18  Aug  2017


www.hemenparekh.in / blogs         


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