Wiser after #2gScam ?

Economic Times ( 18 Dec ) carries following news report :

“ Ex-PMO Official Deposition Sealed Ex-Coal Secy’s Fate “

In the coal scam case , CBI court awarded 3 year sentence to ex coal secretary , H C Gupta , saying :

·         He actively , deliberately and consciously , concealed facts from the then Prime Minister

·         Neither was it alleged by the prosecution nor any such evidence was available to show that Gupta obtained allocation of a coal block for the accused company by any corrupt or illegal means

·         Prosecution is required to prove only that in order to obtain either for himself or for any other person , any valuable thing or pecuniary advantage , the public servant abused his position

{  Astute readers would find subtle similarities in the observations made by the CBI Court this afternoon , in its 1582 page verdict , acquitting all accused in the 2011 , 2G Scam ! }

While pressing for a lenient sentence, Gupta said that as per the prosecution case itself , there has been no allegation against him of any nature whatsoever that any financial gain was obtained by him

The news report carries quotes from Anil Swarup ( HRD Secretary ) and Parmeshwaran Iyer ( Sanitation Secretary ) , talking highly about Gupta being an honest officer

Earlier Amitabh Kant ( CEO – NITI Aayog ) had voiced similar sentiments about Shri Gupta

All this is “ water under the bridge “ !  Irreversible  !

But , if the government wants to encourage honest officers to take “ Bold / Out of the Box “ policy decisions, without being afraid of “ getting their necks chopped off “ , then it should waste no further time to implement my following suggestion :

( - and without waiting for the Government to advise them , what is holding up Central IAS Officers Association , to initiate this, on their own ?  )

Friday, 20 June 2014

To err is human

To forgive is divine ( provided it was a honest error )

All of us keep making errors , all the time

But rarely same " mistake " twice

Often , decisions taken at a point of time , turn out to be " poor " , with passage of time

Reasons are simple :

*  We never have all the information - relevant to the problem we are trying to solve –

    available with us , at the time of taking a decision

*  Even when most of such relevant info is available , we may not have the capacity /

    competence to " process " such info

*  As humans , we have our biases / prejudices , based on our previous experiences ,

    which influence our decisions

*  Quite often , and often against our own better evaluation / judgement of a given

    situation , we are wrongly influenced by our peers / bosses / subordinates or even

     voters - all of whom have different expectations / vested interests !

*  Additional - and more relevant - information surfaces , AFTER we have taken a

    decision ( happens all the time  !  )

To encourage Babus and Ministers to take FAST decisions , Shri Narendra Modi must insist that they carefully " Record " on the files :

*   What info / data he wished was available for a better decision

*  What different " views / opinions " were presented to him for consideration

*  What " Data / Views " he would have obtained if he had more time

*   Who all , the decision might offend

*   What is the likely " Cost " of postponing that decision

And finally a declaration :

* This decision is not likely to benefit any of my near relatives / friends , directly or

   immediately

After all of this , if the decision appears to be " Wrong " in hindsight , it must be " forgiven " and treated as an honest error

To err is human  !

21  Dec  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

No mere Relief : A Game Changer

Times of India ( 20 Dec ) carries following news report :

“ Relief for Shop Owners and Eateries from License Raj “

Maharashtra 1st to implement Amended Act / Move will generate more Employment

Highlights :

·         Shops and Establishments to stay open 365 days a year and can choose opening and closing timings, if not restricted by the state in public interest

·         Bars, wine shops, pubs, discotheques will continue to have timing restrictions

·         Welfare provisions in bill won’t apply to shops and establishments with less than 10 employees ( approx. 12 lakh establishments )

·         Rules relaxed for kirana stores , small shops

·         Employees not to work more than 9 hours, will get paid leave and overtime

·         Govt has already reformed Factories and Contract Labour Acts

·         State will consider public inconvenience in terms of traffic and noise pollution caused by 24*7 operations

·         Women can work night shifts – 9:30 pm to 7 am – with their consent

·         Establishments will have to provide safety measures for their women employees

·         35 lakh Shops and Establishments in Maharashtra

·         No registration required for which have fewer than 10 workers or employees working from home or which run an online business

Without doubt , this reform will generate more jobs

But if the governments ( Central + States ) , are bold enough to implement my earlier suggestions ( see following blog ), they can generate :

50MILLION NEW JOBS in 5 MONTHS ?  [  24  June  2016  ]

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/06/50-million-new-jobs-in-5-months.html

=================================

It is reported that the Union Cabinet will soon approve a notification which will allow establishments covered by the Shops and Establishment Act to remain open round the clock ( 24 hours )

Currently , if they remain open for 10 / 12 hours , they end up inviting visits by Inspectors of Establishment Department and the Labour Department , to collect their weekly " haftas "

With official sanction of 24 hours , that would go !

And 24 working hours will enable these shopkeepers to compete with those Foreign Companies bringing in 100 % FDI in retail but working for 8 hours / day !

And as soon as one grocery store starts working longer hours ( even 12 hours ) , most of the neighbourhood stores will follow suit  !

For our 50 million MSMEs to, not only take on these Foreign Giants but to defeat them in competition , is only possible when we stop playing the RETAIL GAME by the Rules of those Foreign Countries , and make them clue-less with our own NEW and OUT-OF-BOX rules !

Possibly half of these may be covered by Factory Act and the remaining half by the Shop and Establishment Act

Between them , they employ 90 % of India's work force of around 500 million

Average of approx 9 persons per MSME

Now , even if only 5 million ( out of 25 million shops ) just add ONE more employee to work longer hours , that would get jobs to 5 million youth !

That is quite a lot !  And without any additional Capital Investment !

Compare this advantage with Capital required to create ONE new job in Start Ups

As per Government , Rs 10,000 cr of " Fund of Funds for Start Ups " , will catalyse an Equity Investment of Rs 60,000 cr , which , in turn will enable raising of Debt of Rs 120,000 cr - totaling Rs 180,000 cr of capital

As per Government , that will generate 18,00,000 jobs ( in 5 years )

That is requirement of Rs 10 LAKH for each new job created in a Start Up !

While welcoming this initiative , I urge the Union Government to take following steps simultaneously , in order to generate , not just 5 million but  50 MILLION  new jobs in the MSME sector ( and without additional funds ! ) :

#   Abolish all visits by Inspectors ( Labour + Shop & Establishment Departments )

#   Allow MSMEs to engage Apprentices under the recently revised Skills Development

     Regulations / Apprentice Act

#   For them , remove the upper limit ( of Apprentices ) which is maximum of 10 % of

     employee strength

#   Let them engage Apprentices up to 100 % of their existing employees

#   Let them keep these trainees for 3 years under " Retail Establishment Trainee

     Scheme "

#   Let the stipend be 100 % ( instead of currently prescribed 60-70-80 % ) of semi

     Skilled Minimum wages

     ( Minimum Semi Skilled Wages are approx Rs 6,000 per month - so Shopkeeper need

      to pay Rs 6000 pm )

#   Concerned State Governments to subsidize 50 % of this stipend (so, Shopkeeper's

     burden to be  Rs 3,000 pm )

     [  Stipend Subsidy does not violate WTO  !  ]

#  To ensure fool-proof  compliance with the number of Trainees engaged and Stipends

    paid , this Scheme

    ( 24 hr open + 100 % trainees + 100 % Stipend + 50 % Subsidy + 3 year training

     program + No inspectors ),

     will apply ONLY to those Shops which implement , mobile app MAD outlined in my

     following blog :

From  BAD to  MAD   [  01  June  2016  ]

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/06/from-bad-to-mad.html

21  Dec  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

Chai and Why ? #OLED

This is the name of a “ citizen awareness “ program being held every Sunday ( 11 am ) at Prithvi Theatres ( Juhu / Mumbai ) . I believe , it is arranged by TIFR and now , celebrating 10^th year

Last month , I attended this program , which focussed on OLED ( Organic Light Emitting Diodes )

It was a demo-lecture by Prof Amitabh Banerji of the University of Koln ( Germany )

Prof Banerji is currently touring India with a few of his students and giving demo-lectures at various Indian Universities

During the talk , Prof Banerji actually “ constructed “ a small OLED on a piece of glass , with the help of tools / chemicals that he carried in a KIT ( - a small plastic bag )

In Germany , Koln University sells this KIT BAG for Euro 500

Prof Banerji has given a few KITS to Prof Bhattacharya of TIFR , for propagating the concept of OLED

I will not go into the detailed ( but, extremely SIMPLE ) process of constructing a OLED , within a few minutes , even by a School-going child !

When that small ( 2 inch by 2 inch ) piece of glass , turned into a OLED , audience could see ( on the screen ) , actual glow of light when a small current was passed through the conducting layer on the glass

By reversing the process and shining a bright light ( from a torch or a lamp ) , it was shown that a small current flowed in the circuit !

I asked Prof Banerji :

“  Can flexible plastic OLED of much higher capacities , be mounted on roof-tops of Electric Cars , to produce enough power to charge a small Lithium Battery ?

Can this replace glass-based PV Solar Panels which ISRO mounted on an OMNI ( in May 2017 ) to charge its battery for 150 Km run ?

If technology advances sufficient enough for commercial production of high capacity flexible OLED Solar Power generator for car roof-tops , can this mean continuous charging of Li-ion batteries , eliminating ( - or , at least , vastly reducing ) the need for Battery Charging Stations for India’s proposed 6 million Electric Vehicles on the roads , by 2022 ? “

Prof Banerji answered :

“ Very good question .

This is bound to happen , may be within 10 years .

Unfortunately , current constraints are :

#   Plastic-based OLED have a low conversion efficiency , of around 6 % as against 16 %

     - 25 % for a glass-based PV cell

#   These are unstable and rapidly degrade in the presence of Oxygen and Ultra Violet

     Light

But advantage is :

-          a plastic-based OLED does not need direct sunlight . It can generate power , even in a diffused / indirect light ! 

-          Companies are experimenting with even OLED embedded wall paint for painting house exteriors , which can supply electricity to entire building “

If our Policy Makers ( in the Ministry for Renewable Energy / NITI Aayog / Transport Ministry ) want clarifications / directions , I am sure Prof Banerji ( a.banerji@uni-koeln.de  ) would be happy to help

21  Dec  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs 

  

NITI proposes : SIAM postpones

NITI  Aayog has proposed that India completely switch over to Electric Vehicles by 2030

Yesterday , SIAM ( Society of Indian Automotive Manufacturers ) submitted a white paper to the Ministry of New and Renewable Energy ( MNRE ) , saying :

·         going by the current rate of production and sales it will be difficult to move all the vehicles to electric by 2030

·         we can move 40% of the total vehicles by 2030

·         we can switch over to 100 % E-Vehicles , only by 2047

(  Source : http://www.livemint.com/Industry/UBv5eYRwLshljuvi70XjHJ/40-of-vehicles-in-India-to-become-electric-by-2030-propose.html  )

No doubt , Indian Auto Manufacturers are a hard-headed practical lot , with their feet  solidly on the ground

They know the hurdles to be faced in such a revolutionary transport transformation

So , it is no surprise that they have taken a safe / less risk , approach

As an “ Interest Group “ , they had to present a “ Common Front “ to the Government

But , no one need doubt that in their “ Individual Capacity “ , each auto manufacturer is a “ Rational Player “ , working double-time to get ahead of the competitors to grab a bigger share of the “ Market Pie “ , as explained below :

=======================================================

http://www.gametheory.net/dictionary/ url_of_entry.html

In its mildest form, rationality implies that every player is motivated by maximizing his own payoff.

In a stricter sense, it implies that every player always maximizes his utility, thus being able to perfectly calculate the probabilistic result of every action.

Now , imagine that the ROAD-MAP DOCUMENT for ELECTRIC VEHICLES ( - which is expected to get released by the Transport Ministry by this month-end ) , contains the following provision :

EVICT [ Electric Vehicle Incentive Corporate Tax ] Scheme :

·         The annual revenue ( income ) through sale of Electric Vehicles will be exempt from Corporate Income Tax

·         There will be a GST of 5 % on sale of Electric Vehicle and of 25 % on Petrol / Diesel Vehicles

·         The income from sale of Petrol / Diesel vehicles will be subject to normal Corporate Income tax @ 30 %

·         For the same period, sale of India-manufactured Lithium-ion Batteries will be exempt from Corporate Income Tax

·         This provision will commence from 01 April 2018 and expire on 31 March 2035

·         All Auto Manufacturers will need to submit to the Transport Ministry , an Annual Return , showing the break-up of Sales ( Numbers of Vehicles and Revenue – wise ) between the Petrol-Diesel and the Electric Vehicles ( with copy to Finance Ministry )

  

I get a feeling that , if such a provision were to be part of the ROAD MAP , that “ Road “ will , suddenly shrink from year 2047 to year 2027 – without needing any persuasion  !

And , without having to offer any other “ Incentive / Subsidy [ ala Piyush Plan of 25 March 2015 ] “ , either to Auto Manufacturers or to the buyers !

Reason ?

With no Corporate Income Tax and a GST of just 5 % , Auto Manufacturers will be able to price their Electric cars, 25% BELOW the selling price of equivalent Petrol car !

Lower price driven demand will ensure early adoption without other incentives

Not only that

To ensure that the buyers of E Cars do not suffer from “ Range Anxiety “ [ in absence of BatteryCharging Stations , at every kilometre distance ] , the Auto Manufacturers will come up with ISRO-inspiredE Cars with Solar Roof Top Panels , charging a 5 Kwh Lithium-ion Battery !

And charging from domestic electric outlet at home , overnight !

Dear Shri Nitin Gadkariji :

In the past ( by beingangry and bulldozing ) , you have not endeared yourself to the Auto Manufacturers )

But by announcing the EVICT Scheme in the current session of Lok Sabha, you will set in motion the wheels of an unprecedented industrial revolution !

20  Dec  2017

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs