Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Tuesday, 3 July 2018

Mumbai Nagpur Super Highway




[  A  ]


Times of India ( 02 July ) carries following news :






SALIENT  POINTS :

*  MSEDCL plans to set up 50  e-charging  stations , one every 35 km along the 820 km
    Mumbai Nagpur route  ( on the existing route )

   
*  When Mumbai Nagpur Super Highway comes up , we could have a station every
    25 km , said an official

   
*  AC Chargers take  5 – 6 hours  to charge ( electric car battery  ) and is economical


*  DC Chargers take 30 – 45 minutes to charge but is costly


*  A Mahindra e20 takes 7 hours to charge from zero to full at a slow point and 1.5 hours
    at a fast point .


*  A fully charged car can go up to 120 km


*  An MSEDCL official said :

      The Mumbai Nagpur highway ( existing ) handles 30,000 to 40,000 passenger cars
      DAILY and hence, setting up charging stations there would be viable for us. We only
      need to set up DC charging points that are faster and this will reduce infrastructure
      costs “




[  B  ]


WHAT ABOUT CHARGING COST  ?



For example, the Mahindra Verito gives a mileage of 15 km / litre .
  

At Rs 75 per liter of Petrol, the car would need 4 litres to cover 60 kms for a total cost of Rs 300 for the trip.


The Mahindra
e2o would need 10 units of power for a full charge of 100 km. At Rs 4 a unit that would be Rs 40.

 
So there you go, a person driving an EV spends less that Rs 30 to cover 60kms while a gas powered car would really drill a hole in the wallet. On the other hand, if you install Solar Panels, you can run your car on the power of the sun for free.





[  C  ]


IMPLICATIONS  ON  EXISTING  HIGHWAY :


#  FOR AN ELECTRIC CAR

Mumbai Nagpur ( existing ) highway is 820 km long
With a “ range “ of 120 km , an electric car would need to recharge 8 times ( to be on the safer side )
So total charging cost could be  Rs 320 (  Rs 40 / charge * 8  charges )

Not bad at all



But what about the “ time to travel “ , using an electric car  ?



*  Charging time  >   40 hours  (  8 halts @ 5 hours / charge  for that economical AC
                                               charging  )


*  Running time    >  12 hours   (  if the average speed of the car is 70 km per hour  )



*  Lunch –Dinner   >    8 hours



*  Sleeping Time    >   NIL           (  just take a nap while battery is charging !  )



*  Total                 >    60  hours




#   FOR  A  PETROL  CAR

Installing Battery Charging Stations along the existing highway , won’t make any difference to the Petrol cars





[   D   ]


IMPLICATIONS  ON  PLANNED  SUPER HIGHWAY :


#  FOR AN ELECTRIC CAR

Now the planned Mumbai Nagpur Super Highway is going to be 705 km


So it will take one LESS halt for charging ( ie only 7 halts , thereby saving 5 hours )


So you will be on the road for ( say ) 55 hours instead of 60 hours


But , you will need to pay a toll of Rs 2.5 per km ( total of Rs 1762 / -  )



So , for an electric car , the cost will be as follows :

*  Toll  Cost           =              Rs  1762

*  Charging Cost    =              Rs 280 ( 40*7 )

*  Total Cost          =              Rs  2042



Now, even if the cost is “ bearable “ , who would want to sit behind wheel for 55 hours ?




#  FOR A PETROL CAR


Time can be close to :

*   For driving………………. 10  hours ( @ 70 km per hour )

*   Filling Petrol…………….  0.2  hours ( for one halt )

*   Lunch break…………….   1.0 hours



*  Total time…………………10.5 hours  [  manageable  ]





But when it comes to cost , things look down !


*  Petrol Cost………………… Rs   4,900 /- [ @ Rs 70 / litre and car giving 10 km per litre ]

*  Toll Charges……………..  Rs   1,762

*  Total Cost……………………Rs  6,662 / - [ Unbearable ? ]






[  E   ]



Observations :


*  On the existing highway, no one will want to drive an Electric Car for 60 hours !


*  Setting up those battery charging stations will be a total waste of scarce funds


Will those 30,000 / 40,000 Petrol Cars which are currently plying on EXISTING highway ( 820 km ) , switch over to SUPER HIGHWAY ( 705 km ) , so that driving time gets reduced from 12 hours to 10.5 hours  ?


Against saving in Petrol cost ( 820 km vs 705 km / say , Rs 750 / - ) , they would have to fork out Rs 1,762 by way of TOLL charges !


I seriously doubt !




[  F  ]



CAN  THIS  SITUATION  CHANGE  IN  FUTURE  ?


Yes – if :



#   Lithium-ion Batteries can be charged in 5 MINUTES ( instead of 5 hours )


      This may come about when “ fast charging technologies “ under development by
      following companies , gets launched :


      Sure Dot  [  https://www.store-dot.com/  ]



      ABB

     https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/we-have-fast-chargers-come-up-   

 

              with-better-batteries-abb-to-manufacturers/article24186896.ece  ]


-------------------------------

 


#    Ashok Leyland launches Metal Air Batteries in collaboration with Israeli firm
      Phinergy  [ http://www.phinergy.com/ ] , which DOES NOT need recharging at all !


-------------------------------------

#    Indian manufacturers of Electric Cars move away from the current design and
      move onto :


     “ Electric Cars whose Solar Panel covered roof continuously charges a small
       Lithium-ion battery as long as the car roof is exposed to Sun . If at all any
       charging is required , it can be done with a 220 v domestic outlet  ( available at
       dozens of commercial establishments , along the highway “


       No need for dedicated Battery Charging Stations !



       ISRO has demonstrated this technology ( in May 2017 ) and licensed it to Indian Oil



      
       I have no doubt , if approached , SONO MOTORS , would be happy to licence this
       technology to Indian Car Manufacturers



--------------------------------------


#   If Maharashtra Govt can dream of Hyperloop , why not dare to embed Solar Panel
     into this Super Highway and pay a “ Reverse Toll “ to electric cars , as explained

    below ?











REFERENCES :


*  https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2018/05/roof-top-solar-better-alternative.html ]



https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2018/01/ashok-leyland-is-not-waiting.html 


 







 


04  July  2018


Honest decisions : Haunted in hindsight ?





Today’s papers carry following news :




Economic Times :




Times of India  :



Gist  :


*  “The PCA is one of the most badly drafted laws.


     It does not confine corruption to bribery or dishonest behaviour but it almost puts

     even honestly taken decisions, which with the wisdom of hindsight prove to be

     wrong, into the category of corruption,” said Jaitley.


 *  “It creates a legislative system where even bona fide decisions, in a post-mortem
     done after 10 years, are found to be erroneous and people are held accountable.


    The only defence strategy that is available is not to take any decision
    This will apply to bankers and the bureaucracy,” said Jaitley.




Dear Shri Jaitleyji ,


You have hit the nail on the head  !


I hope that all the opposition parties agree with the amendments to PCA ( to be proposed by you )


To ensure that you have full support of the Central IAS Officers Association , I suggest that my following email ( sent to you 4 years back ) is incorporated in PCA , even if in some implied manner






To err is human


To forgive is divine ( provided it was a honest error )


All of us keep making errors , all the time


But rarely same " mistake " twice


Often , decisions taken at a point of time , turn out to be " poor " , with passage of time



Reasons are simple :


*  We never have all the information - relevant to the problem we are trying to solve –
    available with us , at the time of taking a decision


*  Even when most of such relevant info is available , we may not have the capacity /
    competence to " process " such info


*  As humans , we have our biases / prejudices , based on our previous experiences ,
    which influence our decisions


*  Quite often , and often against our own better evaluation / judgement of a given
    situation , we are wrongly influenced by our peers / bosses / subordinates or even
    voters - all of whom have different expectations / vested interests !


*  Additional - and more relevant - information surfaces , AFTER we have taken a
   decision ( happens all the time  !  )



To encourage Babus and Ministers to take FAST decisions , Narendra Modi must insist that they carefully " Record " on the files :


*   
What “ info / data “ he wished was available for a better decision


*   
What different " views / opinions " were presented to him for consideration


*   
What " Data / Views " he would have obtained if he had more time


*   
Who all , the decision might offend


*   
What is the likely " Cost " of postponing that decision


And finally a declaration :


  
This decision is not likely to benefit any of my near
    relatives / friends , directly or immediately


After all of this , if the decision appears to be " Wrong " in hindsight , it must be " forgiven " and treated as an honest error

To err is human  !



04  July  2018


Sunday, 1 July 2018

An Important Challenge ?





Shri Piyush Goyalji , while speaking recently at the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s Annual Summit , said :


  Infrastructure creation requires $ 4.5 trillion ( $ 4500 billion ) in investments over the next 10 years
…. The required funds will be available and raising it will not be a deterrence…”


Shri Goyal flagged the COST of FINANCE , as an important challenge



[ source :


At a press meet later , Shri Goyal said :


India has proposed nine infra projects to AIIB for funding which will entail an investment of $ 2.4 billion


With AIIB having committed $ 1.4 billion worth of projects , India is already the biggest beneficiary of AIIB ( so , cannot expect much more there ? )


Something just does not sound right here !


Our need is $ 450 BILLION  per year ( year after year for next 10 years ), and here we are begging AIIB for $ 2.4 billion  !


Incidentally , according to some  think tanks / experts , share of BLACK MONEY in our economy is 15 % of our GDP


If our GDP is $ 2800 billion ( $ 2.8 trillion ) , this would work out to $ 420 billion !


About the same as our requirement of Infra Funds  !




Just consider this :


An amount of Rs 7,000 cr ( $ 1  billion ) , belonging to Indians,  is lying in Swiss Banks


Opposition claims that this is BLACK MONEY – with government rejecting that claim


But , as against that $ 1 billion ( Black or White ) , lying abroad , we have some $ 420 billion stashed away LOCALLY , in land / gold / benaami assets etc .   ALL BLACK  !


On the same dias , along with Shri Goyal , was Mr Bambang Permadi Soemantri Brodjonegoro , the former Finance Minister of Indonesia


I am surprise that neither Shri Goyal nor the Anchor turned to him and ask :



=============================



“ Sir ,


  Last year , your country announced a BLACK MONEY AMNESTY SCHEME , with no penalty / no prosecution / no interrogation


Only 2 % - 4 %  tax to be paid on BLACK MONEY declared by individuals


You managed to raise  $ 330 billion , to be used for funding Infrastructure Projects


Can you please tell us more about how you pulled off this MIRACLE  and how this money
is creating millions of jobs and raising your GDP , through those Infra Projects ?  



==============================




Dear Shri Goyalji :



I totally appreciate that it could have been very embarrassing to hear what Mr Bambang might have said , in front of such a distinguished audience


But nothing stops you from making some quiet / private inquiry !


Or read my following email to Shri Jaitleyji ( dated : 23  Dec  2016 ) :







Even our neighbour Pakistan recently managed to raise  Rs 100 billion  by announcing a similar AMNESTY SCHEME






It is still not too late to evaluate my suggestion considering that :



*  In India , we can raise $ 420 billion at ZERO cost of finance



*  By forcing declarations  of Black Money raised with INFRA SPVs only , we are putting
   these “ no risk “ funds to productive use and generating millions of new jobs




01    July  2018




.