Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Saturday, 18 April 2020

Aarogya Setu : Good Beginning / Long Way to Go



“ Good Beginning “  Part :

Speaking to Republic TV Shri Amitabh Kant said :


You know it's like a bodyguard on your mobile. It shields me, my family and community against corona virus.

This app empowers me for better information on the potential risk of infection.

It was built by the best of India's both the Public and Private sectors, it has a  whole of India approach. It was built within two weeks. It is a world-class product with respect to quality, privacy, security, and scalability.

Now it has reached almost 6 crore users within 15 days... The underline architecture is built to support entire India's user base. "






“ Long Way to Go “  Part :

[ A ]   Self Declaration “ basis

              Figure of 6 crore downloads is impressive .
              Questions are :


Ø  Among those 6 crore, how many of 15000 positively identified Covid-19 patients have downloaded this app ?    My guess : 1500 at most


Ø  Since filling in of the “ I have tested Positive “ data is voluntary, how many of those 1500, have truthfully filled in their positive status ?   My guess  :  150 at most


              It is obvious that downloading of Aarogya Setu – even by 60 crore persons – is of
              little potential help as long as submission of “ My Status “ data is voluntary



              Solution :


Ø  Status of ALL the persons tested ( whether found positive or negative ) , must be compiled in a central database ( 24x7 )


Ø  Arogya Setu , on its own , will access / retrieve / sync with central database every hour and download Mobile Numbers of ALL those who tested positive


Ø  As soon as I am within 2 meters of any of these ( positive ) Mobile phone, my phone will start getting a signal and start beeping !


Just imagine , in a crowd, hundreds of phones start beeping ! 


Enough to scare even the bravest !


Ø  My suggestion will prevent thousands of persons crowding near free Ration Shops / Vegetable markets !  Technological solution for “Social Distancing “

            Help :   

            Apple and Google Could Be Better at Tracking the Coronavirus Than a Government  


 

[ B ] …. “ Voluntary Downloading “ basis


Ø  There should be no need to go to Google Store / Apple Store for downloading


Ø  Government should insist upon Mobile manufacturers that Aarogya Setu must be “ Pre Installed “ before a phone leaves the factory


Ø  Then there could be millions of phones lying with shops selling these . These sellers must install Aarogya Setu before handing over to buyer or no SIM card


Ø  A few hundred million phones could be in use with citizen. Mobile Service Providers ( Reliance – Airtel – Vodafone ) to stop their service to those users who have not downloaded/installed Aarogya Setu. Under Government orders !



[ C ]….  Permission to Leave House “ basis

Ø  Although the governments ( Central + States ) have clearly specified the “ Purposes “ ( eg: to purchase of essentials / visiting doctor etc ), for which a person may leave his house for a few hours, this is being flouted . Thousands of people are coming out of their homes without valid reasons and gathering in public places. Such anti-social / irresponsible behavior, spreads Corona


Aarogya Setu must be modified to prevent such gatherings in a foolproof manner as described below :

[ source : CRY , Beloved Country   /   15  April 2020 ]

                        When a person wants / needs to go out of house , he will enter :

                   #  Purpose for wanting to go out


                  #  Place / Person / Shop / Doctor etc. proposed to visit ( giving address /
                      location )


                  #  Likely duration of staying out of the house



                       Within 1 minute, the concerned Authority will online  APPROVE or DISAPPROVE
                       the request . In case of “ Dis-approval “ , Authority will suggest “ alternate time
                      “ for visit


                      This “ APPROVED  /  DISAPPROVED “ status will appear on the mobile app


                      If stopped / questioned by Police , while a person is on the road, he will show
                      the “ Status “


                     Even the Shop-owner / Doctor etc shall entertain only those persons having
                     Approved “ status


                    This modification will enforce “ Social Distancing “ , and prevent “ Crowding “ at
                    any public pace


  Dear Aarogya Setu Team
  [ support.aarogyasetu@gov.in ] ,


If you are waiting for a GREEN signal to implement this suggestion, you have it from none other than PM Shri Modi !
                    


Here is what he said :


                  Modi also said that the tracking app is an essential tool in Covid-19 fight and is
             possible to use it as an e-pass to facilitate travel from one place to anotheraccording to Press Trust of India report.


            



[ D ] .    Tracking Positive Thru GPS “ basis

Ø  Government must mandate that all mobiles manufactured / sold in India, must switch over from US GPS to our own Indian NaVIC based GPS


I believe NaVIC has a resolution of 2 meter . NaVIC can track all mobiles in India, on 24x7 basis.


Hence , matching with “ Central Covid Test Result Database “ will help authorities to track precise movement of all persons who have tested positive


Till this gets implemented, every positive patient must be made to wear a WRIST-BAND , which can be tracked


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear Shri RaviShankar Prasadji,



It is indeed, admirable to see the progress of this app , as follows :


# On March 23 , I wrote :

  “ Immediately phone up Prof. Ramesh Raskar – MIT  [ raskar@media.mit.ed  ]


Ramesh Raskar's MIT Team Builds App That Tells If Someone's Infected With COVID-19 Near You    /

 

https://privatekit.mit.edu/


- and implement Mobile App developed by his team, by issue of an appropriate ORDINANCE ,  to be converted into a  Infection Protection Act , within 6 months  “



# On 02 April , Aarogya Setu got launched
 

I urge you to consider my above-mentioned suggestions for launching Version 2.0 of Aarogya Setu , by end of this month


With regards,

Hemen Parekh

hcp@RecruitGuru.com  /  19 April 2020
=========================================================


Just received following reply ( to my above-mentioned email ) from Aarogya Setu team : ( 6: 15 pm / 19 April ) --------------------------------------- Dear Sir/Mam, We appreciate your inputs. Aarogya Setu has already helped identify individuals who have come in close proximity of persons who have tested positive for COVID-19 later on. The inputs from the App are being shared with the concerned Government authorities, who then reaches out to these individuals and then undertake further testing and containment measures accordingly. The e-pass feature is  currently under testing and it will be rolled out soon. As more people start using this App, the more effective it can be as tool in combating the COVID-19. -- regards, Aarogya Setu

Friday, 17 April 2020

When the dust settles…..




Hopefully, by Dec 2020,  the dust will settle on the Corona Crisis


When that happens, will we see the following ?


Ø  End of Globalization  /  Resurgence of Protectionism – Economic Self Isolation

Ø  End of capitalism  /   Revival of Socialism

Ø  End of Free Trade ( little imports – lesser exports )  /   Return of high Customs Tariff

Ø  End of Economic Migration  /  Impossible Naturalization Rules for Foreigners

Ø  End of Mass Manufacturing  /  Boost to Home-based Cottage Industry

Ø  End of Salaried Jobs – Annual Increments – Bonuses  /  Surge in Self-employment

Ø  End of Office-based work  /  Beginning of Work from Home ( WFH )

Ø  Cut back of HIGHLY PAID office staff in RICH countries / Remote outsourcing to Low Cost Indian professionals working from their homes using Video Conferencing


Of course, NONE of these will happen immediately or totally


But have no doubts that ALL of these will happen slowly and partially


Here is my guess how the ECONOMIC  LANDSCAPE might look like over the next 3 years for various  Businesses / Industries / Economic Activities:

=========================================================


[  A  ]  Will slowly return to a LOWER LEVEL ( new NORM ) within 1 year


          #  Tourism ( Domestic / International - except may be, Medical Tourism ? )

          #  Airlines  ( Domestic / International )

          #  Hotel – Hospitality Industry

          #  Public Transport ( Trains – Buses – Ferries – Metros )

          #  Oil Industry ( Exploration / Production / Refining / Distribution )

          #  Offline Education ( schools – colleges – coaching classes )

          #  Outdoor Entertainment ( cinema halls – sports stadium – venues )

          #  Outside Eating ( Restaurants – bars etc )

         #  Offices

         #  FMCG Industry

         #  Print News Papers ( - unless morph into “ New Generation Newspapers “ )


=========================================================

[  B  ]  Will recover to OLD LEVELS within 2 / 3 years

          #  Manufacture of all kinds of Machinery

          #  Construction Industry

          #  Infrastructure Projects ( could be earlier if Govt introduces “ Infrastructure SPV “ )

          #  Chemical Industry

          #  Auto Industry ( could be earlier if Govt implements “ Integrated Auto Policy “ )

          #  Consumer Durable Industry

          #  Malls


=========================================================

[  C  ]  Will flourish / attain HIGHER LEVELS within 6 months

         #  Information Technology Industry

         #  Physical Healthcare Ecosystem ( Hospitals-Nursing Homes – Labs – Clinics etc )

         #  Isolation facilities ( outside of regular hospitals ) in Railway coaches / idle flats etc

         #  Mental Healthcare / Remote video-based counselling to patients around the world

         #  Telemedicine ( both Consultation - Drug Delivery )


         #  Online Education /  Skills Training  /  Re-Skilling

         #  Pharma Industry / Drug  Industry ( incl. intermediates ) / Vaccine Research labs

         #  Biotechnology

         #  Manufacture of Test Kits – PPE – Ventilators – Masks – Disinfection Booths

         #  Internet connected Medical Equipment / Devices / Hospital Equipment

         #  Mobile Apps and Wearables for Healthcare / Self Diagnosis

        #   CCTVs – Drones - Mobile apps for “ Crowd Control / Crowd Surveillance “

        #   E Commerce / Kirana Stores ( everything selling online / delivered to homes )

        #   Mobile Payment Apps

        #   Mobile-based Banking

        #   Cyber-Security Services

        #   Mobile-based Attendance Systems

        #   Automation – Robotics related Machineries ( to reduce manpower costs )

       #   Shared Working Offices

       #   Health Insurance Industry

       #   Computer and Internet related electronics hardware

       #   Mobile Phones Manufacture

       #   Mobile Service Providers/ Internet Service Providers / Holographic Conferencing

       #   Courier Services / Home Delivery Services

       #  Online streamed entertainment videos / movies


=========================================================

[ D ]  Let us use this opportunity to abolish following industries :

      #  Cigarettes – Bidi -Tabacco products - Pan Masala ( and other health-hazards )

      #  Plastics for packaging


 ========================================================

This is not a comprehensive list . It is not easy to envisage what impact Covid-19 will have on hundreds of other industries / economic activities


But one thing is certain . Every industrialist / businessman will start asking of himself :



Will the economic re-order brought about by Corona, allow us to survive in the same way we were before this crisis ?

Do we need to re-invent ourselves ?

If yes, how soon can we start ? “



Another thing which seems equally certain is :


“ If one industry falls on bad times ( eg: right 
now, Mobile Service Providers in India ), then the Government can bail out ( using tax-payer money ).

But, when entire economy is headed for a prolonged “ Depression / Recession “, the least that the Government would need to do , in order to stimulate the economy, is my following suggestion (  source : Economy : The Way Back  /  08 April 2020 ) :

      

Ø  For 2020 – 21 , only 50 % of the Personal Income to be taxed for individual tax payers  {  Revenue loss =  Rs  3 lakh*Crore }


Ø  For Corporate, 25 % of salaries/wages paid during July – Aug – Sept , to be borne by Govt


Ø  Amounts of donations made to PM-CARES fund to be treated towards CSR obligations with provision for carry forward any excess amount


Ø  No GST for goods sold during July – Aug – Sept ( assuming production will reach normal level by June end ) {  Revenue loss =  Rs 3 lakh*Crore }


Ø  Since above-mentioned benefits will drain the government exchequer, leaving very little funds for planned Infrastructure, I strongly urge the Government to issue  ELEPHANT BONDS , with modifications as described at :

              Congratulations, Shri Surjit Bhallaji,            [ 31 Oct 2019 ]




And above all :

Governments ( Central + States ) must divert funds earmarked for DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS to alleviating the miseries of poor people


I do not expect any politician or economist to have the courage to tell the citizen that we have to learn to LIVE WITH LESS ! 


With regards,


Hemen Parekh  /  hcp@RecruitGuru.com    

18  April  2020

=========================================================    

Phased Lifting of Lockdown / Revised Guidelines


Phased Lifting of Lockdown


=========================================================


[ A ]  ……….. TOTALLY PROHIBITED

Ø  domestic and international air travel
Ø  trains
Ø  Buses for public transport.
Ø  Metro
Ø  Inter-district and inter-state movement of individuals
Ø  educational, training, coaching institutions
Ø  industrial and commercial activities
Ø  Hospitality services
Ø  Taxis, auto rickshaws and cycle rickshaws and services of cab aggregators
Ø   cinema halls, malls, shopping complexes, gymnasiums, sports complexes, swimming pools, entertainment parks, theatres, bars and auditoriums, assembly halls and similar places.
Ø  social, political, sports, entertainment, academic, cultural, religious functions and other gatherings.
Ø  religious places/places of worship …Religious congregations


[ B ] ………… WHAT HAS BEEN ALLOWED

Ø  health services / public utilities
Ø  Chemists, pharmacies, veterinary hospitals 
Ø  Manufacturing units of drugs, medical equipment, 
Ø  construction of media infrastructure
Ø  Farming
Ø  agriculture marketing
Ø  fertilizers, pesticides and seeds
Ø  marine and inland fisheries
Ø  Animal husbandry
Ø   milk, milk products, poultry and live-stock farming
Ø  Tea, coffee and rubber plantations (maximum of 50 per cent worker )
Ø  Industries operating in rural areas
Ø  food processing 
Ø  construction of roads, irrigation projects, buildings and industrial projects in rural areas
Ø  water conservation works
Ø  rural Common Service Centres
Ø  RBI, banks, ATMs
Ø  insurance companies
Ø  homes for children, mentally disabled, senior citizens, destitutes
Ø  Anganwadis
Ø  MNREGA works
Ø  Petroleum and gas retail and storage outlets
Ø  Power
Ø  Postal services
Ø  municipal, local body
Ø  Telecommunications and internet
Ø  Transportation of goods
Ø  Shops / ration shops( food, groceries, fruits ,vegetables )
    No restriction on timing. However, district authorities may
   encourage and facilitate home delivery to minimize the
   movement of individuals outside their homes.
Ø  Print and electronic media
Ø  E-commerce operations, couriers services
Ø  Cold storage and warehousing 
Ø  electrician, plumber, repairmen, carpenters and motor mechanics.
Ø  coal, mine, mineral, packaging material, jute, brick kilns
Ø  SEZs, EoUs, industrial estates and industrial townships
Ø  IT hardware
Ø  Construction of roads, irrigation projects, buildings and all kinds of industrial projects
Ø  Construction of renewable energy products
=========================================================