A push for endless litigation ?

 

 

Context :

Firmer push for local EV production ….  HT  …….. 14 Nov 2023

Extract :

The Union Ministry of Heavy Industries ( MHI ) is considering introducing a 50 %

domestic value addition ( DVA ) requirement and doing away with PMP

( Phased Manufacturing Program ) as part of its proposed Faster

Adoption and Manufacturing of ( Hybrid and ) Electric Vehicles in India ( FAME ) III

DVA is calculated based on the NET SELLING PRICE of a product and the LANDED

COST of imported inputs

Further , the Heavy Industries ministry plans to introduce an ANNUAL REVIEW of compliance with INDEGENIZATION NORMS

“ One thing is , there would be an ANNUAL CHECK of the applicants. There would be DVA. There was no DVA in FAME so far; there was PMP . In the next phase of FAME , when it comes up, we would have DVA “

Under PMP, the government offers, a GRADED DUTY STRUCTURE and a TIMELINE for the GRADED IMPLEMENTATION of the indigenization of COMPONENTS over time to discourage imports and boost demand for local products

“ DVA is a more refined concept. It’s much more stringent. We will keep it at 50 % “

 

 

My Take :

 

Govt claims that EV manufacturers ( mostly , 2 wheelers ) wrongly claimed PLI

amounting to Rs 469 crores, by submitting wrong claims

Some manufacturers have admitted their wrong-doings and returned subsidy

amounts claimed . Discussions are going on with the rest

Is DVA a “ more refined concept “ , as compared to PMP ?

Let us examine the definition of DVA

 

DVA = Net Selling Price – landed cost of imported components

 

I am assuming that PLI covers all models of EVs manufactured by a company

Not only, each model will have a different “ Net Selling Price “ , but these prices (

mostly ) keep going up

So which “ price “ will Govt take for computing DVA ? Start of year ? End of year ?

Ave of the year ?

 

Now :

Landed Cost of a given component / sub-assembly :

=  FOB price + Freight + Insurance + Import Duty ( applicable to that component

    / sub-assembly )

 

Let us ( safely ) assume :

Import Duty and Insurance, remains the same , over a long period

But :

( A )  Freight can change, since , a manufacturer may import the SAME

        component from DIFFERENT COUNTRIES , at different times

           

( B )  Even FOB price can differ based on “ Country of Origin “

 

Hence “ Landed Cost “ is a VARIABLE , from time to time

 

That will change the “ Domestic Value Addition “

Can we discount the possibility that a local EV manufacturer may also find “ other

ways “ to “ deflate “ the landed costs ( of numerous components / sub assemblies

) , and show 50 % DAV ?

Can a local EV manufacturer , also find “ other ways “ to show a HIGHER ( than

actual ) “ net selling price “ , thereby reaching / exceeding 50 % DAV ?

60 years ago ( when I was a Production Manager in a large engineering /

machinery manufacturing company ), we had to declare a PMP , for each product

This required , making an UPFRONT DECLARATION ( in writing ) to the

 Government , what components would get indigenized each year and their import

 would not be required

Govt approved such PMP and granted Import License for ONLY those components

which appeared in PMP

Simple

Forced “ indigenization “ in order to continue with ( ever higher ) production !

This takes me back to my following E-mails to our Cabinet Ministers :

 

Will Tesla follow Apple ?.................................. 23 May 2017

 

Extract :

 

Dear Elon :

 

For immediate approval ( in 24 hours ) , pl submit your PMP as follows :

 

2017-18  :

 

Set up factory next to Mundra Port ( Gujarat ) to facilitate world-wide exports

 

 2018-19  :

 

Source locally, Tyres / Chasis / Body / Electricals  / Windows / Dashboards ..etc

  

2019-20   :

 

Manufacture in your own factory , Li-ion Battery  / Wall-mounted Powerpack

Storages / Solar Roof Tiles

 

2020-21  :

 

Manufacture  RFID Sensors - Cameras – GPS locators

 

 2021-22   :

 

Augmented Reality  Devices  /  Autonomous Navigation Devices ( Radar – Lidar  )

 

 

Now , it is very possible that neither Shri Gadkariji , nor Shri Goyalji , would be satisfied with such a slow PMP , spread out over a period of 5 years

 

They may , well request  Elon to cut it down to 3 years

 

And , if they do, I get a feeling that Elon would telescope the entire PMP , in 2

YEARS !

 

Hey Elon , What is so difficult ?........................ 15  Aug  2021

 

Extract :

Tesla to commit to following PHASED MANUFACTURING PROGRAM for making

Model 3 in India

Year ( Ap-Mar)	Items to be procured locally	Value Addition % ( For the Year )	Value Addition % ( Cumulative )
22 - 23	NIL ( Import of fully assembled cars )	-	-
23 - 24	KDU – Knocked Down Units ( Add Assy Hours )	5	5
24 - 25	Tyres / Chasis / Body / Electricals  / Windows / Dashboards ..etc	10	15
25 - 26	Li-ion Battery	40	55
26 - 27	Sensors - Cameras – GPS locators	15	70
27 - 28	Autonomous Navigation Devices ( Radar – Lidar  )	20	90

 

NOTES :

Ø  Above mentioned list of components / sub-assys / Assys etc., is only illustrative.

    Tesla may expand

Ø  For each component / sub-assy.,Tesla would need to provide CIF prices ( $ and Rs

 ), if imported , and providing names of its own current suppliers of each ( country-

    wise )

    

Ø  Value Addition must be shown as a percentage of the final Ex-Factory selling

    price of Model 3

Ø  In case of depreciation of Rupee vis-à-vis Dollar , local value addition must not

    suffer ( get reduced )

Ø  Tesla should file with GOI, a quarterly RETURN , showing current value addition

    and cars sold

   

Dear Elon ( press@tesla.com ),

Ø  You claim that Tesla purchased from India, parts worth $ 100 million, SO FAR

Ø  Assuming that these purchase covered past 2 years, that works out to $ 50 million

     / year

Ø  I further assume that , during 2022 – 23, you will import / sell some 5,000 Model

    3 in India, for a total CIF value of $ 200 million ( @ $ 40,000 per car )

           

Ø  Dividing $ 50 million by $ 200 million = 25 %

Ø  Goes to show that, if the same parts were used for “ locally assembled “ cars, it

    would amount to a “ local value addition “ of ( as high as ) 25 % , in the

    very FIRST YEAR itself !

   

I urge your Business Development Team, to go through my following earlier e-

mails to help formulate your ENTRY STRATEGY for India

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

www.hemenparekh.ai  /  15  Nov  2023

 

 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PS :

Import Duties : Time to get Rational  .... 27 July 2021

 Extract :

Ø  Elon Musk has repeatedly said :

      “ Starting with import / sale of fully assembled Model 3 , we plan to ,

        progressively set up a full-fledged manufacturing facilities in India “

       

Ø  Let the Central Government tell Elon :

“  Good !

We will let you import and sell, fully assembled Model 3 in India for ONE

YEAR , at 40 % import duty, provided ,

 #  You will NOT be allowed to import fully assembled cars beyond FIRST

      year

#  From Second Year onwards, you will be allowed to import ONLY some

    sub-assemblies /  components ( which are not being locally

    manufactured by any Indian Company ), by paying import duties as

    applicable to those sub-assembles / components

    

      

 #  You will undertake / commit to a Phased Manufacturing Program , as

      envisaged below :

              ( source :   Will Tesla follow Apple ? ………………. 23 May 2017 )

 

HUL vs RIL : Contrasting Strategies to Enable Kirana Stores ?

 

 

Context :

HUL to help kiranas compete with bigger players via ONDC  …….  ET  /  14 Nov 2023

Extract :

Hindustan Unilever (HUL) said it will help onboard nearly 1.3 million kirana stores on the central government's Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) network, helping them compete with e-commerce and quick service grocery retailers.

The move is an extension of its internal ordering app Shikhar, which allows small neighbourhood stores to order directly from it.

“ We realized that retailers need to service orders directly instead of HUL doing it through UShop. That’s the real democratization of e-commerce “ , said Kedar Lele, executive director , customer development , HUL

“ With Shikhar, they have come half way and are beginning to order on their own . In the future, 1.3 million retailers could become available on ONDC network and buy not just HUL products but anything that the retailer sells “

Lele said, HUL plays the role of “ digitization agent or hand-holding team which makes a neighborhood retailer compete with the best, the biggest in e-commerce business for hyper local servicing “

To begin with, HUL is piloting the initiative through an integrated module in Shikhar called the Shikhar Seller App, where the neighborhood kirana stores can go on live on ONDC and sell the entire catalogue or products online.

“ This is the right time in our belief to start enabling because as ONDC starts growing, is the time when the retailer starts plugging into it. And with that momentum, we will be able to service the retailer as well and they will be able to hold onto their share of business, which otherwise will become difficult for them “, said Lele

At present, there are about 12 million mom-and-pop stores in India, of which only about 0.12 % are tech enabled, while e-retail accounts for only 4 % of the $ 800 BILLION retail market in India

“ ONDC ensures a level playing field for digital retailers of all sizes, granting visibility and democratizing the digital commerce landscape. Sellers enjoy the freedom to set their terms and conditions, register once for discoverability and retain high profit margins without commission deductions. Direct connections with buyers eliminate intermediation risks and third party charges, boosting profitability “ , said T Koshy, managing director, ONDC, adding that the network also offers services such as logistics and enhanced analytics, enabling retailers to optimize operations and enhance overall business performance

HUL has the biggest retail network reach among FMCG companies in India, with its products reaching nine million kirana stores.

Last year, parent Unilever called its Indian unit, a DIGITAL and INNOVATION  POWERHOUSE  after several of HUL’s local tech and digitization initiatives including Shikhar , were being adopted by several developing countries

 

My Take :

 

5 years ago , I envisioned the following MARKETTING THROUGH  DIGITIZATION

strategy for Reliance Retail :

 

MA = DA x 4,000,000 ?  …   17  July  2018

 

I wrote :

 

SALES :

All of your merchandize will be available for selection / ordering on our ONLINE web portal 

This online presence of your merchandize will expand / extend your " reach " to thousands of consumers in your neighbourhood

You will need to only focus on OFFLINE ( across-the-counter ) sales to consumers who walk into your store

For OFFLINE sales , we will install in your stores , all the necessary Computers / POS terminals / Routers / Internet Connections / Mobile Wallet Payment systems and an end-to-end , RETAIL MANAGEMENT software 

All of your OFFLINE sales data will get transferred to our Central Server

===================

SUPPLY  :

We will deliver to your store , all merchandize on " Consignment " basis

This means , you do NOT need to pay us for what we deliver to you store !

Till sold , all goods in your store will be our " stock "

This way , you do NOT need any " Working Capital " as far as your stocks are concerned 

We will also tie-up with the manufacturers

You don't need to have any interaction / dealing with the manufacturers

===================

INVENTORY  :

On a continuous basis , our web server will keep a track of each and every item of merchandize sold from your stores

Our Server will calculate , your " Stock Movement " 

Based on this data , our Server will compute / set for each item :

#   Minimum Stock Level

#   Alarm Stock Level

#   Stock Re-Order Level

#   Re-Order Quantity ( Minimum Batch Size ) 

Based on this logic , our Server will instruct the relevant " Merchandize Manufacturers " ( or their dealers / stockists ) , to deliver the stipulated " Re-Order Quantities " to your stores

A " Re-Order Instruction intimation " , will get delivered to your computer

Upon arrival , you will need to update the data

From time to time , our Software will also figure out your current stocks of " Extremely Slow Moving " and " Obsolete / Expired " items , and arrange for " Return Delivery " , which you will need to enter in your database

===================

DELIVERY  :

Not only we will deliver the merchandize to your store , but we will also pick up " Ordered Items " ( for ONLINE orders only ) , from your store and deliver the same to your customers  !

Initially we will employ manual " Delivery Persons " for this but , before long , we will deploy a fleet of autonomous DRONES for this purpose 

This fleet will cover " Kirana Stores " and " Online Customers " , located in pre-designated areas , covering 4 sq km ( 2 km x 2 km )

We are in talk with www.What3Words.com , to enable precise delivery through your 10th floor window  !

These drones will get their " Delivery Instructions " directly from our Web Server , for all ONLINE orders

When these drones arrive at your Store to pick up the items ( to be delivered ) , they will transfer ( Blue Tooth / NFC ) and display on your Computer screen , following data :

#  Online Order Number / time / date

#  Items covered with description / value of each

#  Customer Name / Address 

#  Mode of Online Payment / Bank Details 

 

#  Your online account CREDIT details , giving,

     ( Sales Value ) - ( Purchase Price )  

    " Purchase Price " of goods in your stock will be

     based on FIFO method

 

========================

FINANCE  :

As explained earlier , you will have a bare minimum need for " Working Capital " , since all of your stock will be on " Consignment " basis

We will collect the " ONLINE  PAYMENTS " directly from the customers and " Credit " the same to your " online sales account " with us

Against same account , we will " Debit " the " purchase price " ( price at which you purchase the merchandize from Reliance ) of the goods sold

Our server will also take care of all GST payments and filing of GST returns

As far as OFFLINE sales is concerned , all the data captured through POS terminal will get transferred to our Central Server


=====================

MARKETING  :

Not only will we carry out all marketing for your ONLINE sales , we will help you with your OFFLINE marketing , through introduction of the following technology-enhanced features :

#   Arranging a better display of merchandize on your shelves / re-arranging of shelves


#  Introducing Augmented Reality ( AR ) for clothes / fashion goods in " Trial Rooms " for giving the customers , an experience of " touch - feel - looks "

#   Introducing Robots to answer customer inquiries

#   Eliminating " Check Out Counters " , based on " Payments through Bio-metric Recognition " of customers

#   Embedding RFID sensors in each item of merchandize and RFID readers embedded in Shopping Carts

#   Improving your window display thru rotation

#   Introducing music

#  Eventually replacing " Physical " merchandize with " Holographic Display " of merchandize on your store shelves !

===================================================

 

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

www.hemenparekh.ai  /  14 Nov 2023

 

When asked to compare the strategies of HUL and Reliance Retail , here is how

BARD replied :

 

Marketing Parameters	Hemendra Parekh's Suggested Strategy to Reliance Retail	Strategy of HUL	Whose Strategy will better empower the retail Kirana shops
Sales	Online and offline sales through a centralized web portal	Online sales through Shikhar app and offline sales through traditional methods	Hemen Parekh's strategy will better empower the retail Kirana shops as it provides a wider reach and a more convenient shopping experience for customers.
Supply	Consignment basis supply	Direct purchase from manufacturers	Hemen Parekh's strategy will better empower the retail Kirana shops as it reduces the need for working capital and provides a more flexible supply chain.
Inventory	Real-time inventory tracking and automatic reordering	Manual inventory tracking and reordering	Hemen Parekh's strategy will better empower the retail Kirana shops as it reduces the risk of stockouts and overstocks.
Delivery	Online and offline delivery through a fleet of drones	Online delivery through third-party partners and offline delivery through traditional methods	Hemen Parekh's strategy will better empower the retail Kirana shops as it provides a faster and more convenient delivery experience for customers.
Finance	Online payments and direct credit to Kirana shops' accounts	Offline payments and traditional invoicing	Hemen Parekh's strategy will better empower the retail Kirana shops as it provides a more transparent and efficient payment process.
Marketing	Online and offline marketing support	Online marketing support through Shikhar app	Hemen Parekh's strategy will better empower the retail Kirana shops as it provides a wider range of marketing support services.
Other	Introduction of technology-enhanced features such as AR, robots, bio-metric payments, RFID sensors, and holographic displays	Focus on digitization through Shikhar app and ONDC	Hemen Parekh's strategy will better empower the retail Kirana shops as it provides a wider range of technology-enhanced features.

 

 

Overall, Hemen Parekh's strategy is more comprehensive and forward-thinking than HUL's strategy.

 

Hemen Parekh's strategy is better suited to the needs of today's retail Kirana shops, as it provides a wider reach, a more convenient shopping experience, a more flexible supply chain, a more efficient payment process, and a wider range of marketing support services.

 

Hemen Parekh's strategy is also better suited to the future of retail, as it includes a wider range of technology-enhanced features.

 

And here is what ChatGPT had to say about the relative advantages of Reliance

Retail and HUL :

 

Marketing Parameters	Hemen Parekh's Suggested Strategy for Reliance Retail	HUL's Strategy	Whose Strategy Empowers Kirana Shops Better?
Sales	All merchandise available for selection/ordering on online portal, focus on offline sales only in-store	Enabling kiranas to sell the entire catalogue online via ONDC network	Both strategies offer digital avenues for sales, empowering Kirana stores
Supply	Consignment-based delivery, no payment till merchandise sold, tie-up with manufacturers, no direct interaction	Empowering kiranas to order directly through Shikhar, acting as a digitization agent	HUL's strategy aligns more with empowering Kirana stores by integrating them into the digital ecosystem
Inventory	Continuous tracking of sales, setting stock levels, automated reordering based on sales data	ONDC network integration for optimized operations and analytics, enabling stock visibility and reordering	Both strategies focus on inventory management, HUL's approach via ONDC might offer broader support
Delivery	Initial manual delivery, future deployment of drones, precise delivery mechanism	Piloting integrated modules in Shikhar for kiranas to sell online, providing logistics support	Reliance's strategy with drone delivery and precise online order handling could empower Kirana stores more
Finance	Minimal need for working capital, direct collection of online payments, automated accounting, and GST management	Empowering retailers through ONDC network, eliminating intermediation risks, and offering high profit margins	Both strategies streamline financial aspects, with Reliance's strategy offering more direct financial benefits
Marketing	Enhancing offline marketing with tech features (AR, robots, RFID, holographic displays)	Assisting kiranas to compete in e-commerce through ONDC, offering tech-enhanced services	Reliance's suggested strategy offers more tech-driven enhancements, potentially aiding Kirana stores better

Both strategies have their strengths in empowering Kirana stores, but they approach it from slightly different angles.

HUL's focus on ONDC integration and support seems to align closely with the needs of Kirana shops within the digital commerce landscape.

Meanwhile, Reliance's proposed strategy emphasizes a comprehensive tech-driven approach that could also significantly benefit Kirana stores, especially in terms of futuristic advancements like drone delivery and immersive in-store experiences.