Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Thursday, 11 April 2024

Automotive Mission Plan – 2047

 


 

Context :

Govt asks auto industry to prepare ‘Automotive Mission Plan 2047’  … Business Line … 10 Apr 2024

Extract :

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has reportedly asked the automobile industry make a comprehensive plan to be announced as part of his ‘first 100 days’ of the new government. The ambitious ‘Automotive Mission Plan (AMP) 2047’ is to be announced in September.

Sources said the PM is expected to release the AMP 2047 in the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) and Automotive Components Manufacturers Association (ACMA) conventions to be held in September.

A meeting was held at the Ministry of Heavy Industries (MHI) on April 8 (Monday) to discuss various success stories and important discussion points that can be included in the first 100 days’ plan of the new government and also what targets should be kept in the AMP 2047.

The AMP 2047 aims to meet 30 per cent target of exporting auto and auto components by 2030 and finally reaching up to 50 per cent by 2047.

“It was an informal discussion broadly on what should be there in the third AMP. There will be more such meetings in the future and some committees will also be made. The MHI has asked the original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) to give some points which can be included in the ‘100 days plan’ of the Modi government,” a source privy to the proceedings in the meeting told businessline.

The meeting was chaired by

#   MHI Secretary, Kamran Rizvi ( shioff@nic.in )

#   Pawan Goenka ( Chairman@inSpace.gov.in )

-       Who is the Head of the SCALE committee (Steering Committee for Advancing Local Value-Add and Exports).


The idea was to have an initial discussion and form constitute sub-committees for the mission plan.

The AMP 2006-16 was launched with a vision of making India “emerge as the destination of choice in the world for design and manufacture of automobiles and auto components with output reaching a level of $145 billion accounting for more than 10 per cent of the GDP and providing additional employment to 25 million people by 2016.”

Similarly, the second AMP 2016-26 aimed to propel the Indian Automotive industry to be the engine of the ‘Make in India’ programme, as it is amongst the foremost drivers of the manufacturing sector.

“ BOTH AMPS WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL.

The first one was released by the then PM Manmohan Singh. In the second AMP for 2016-2026 that was released in 2015, the MHI was involved, but other ministries were not involved. So the document was ready, but it never got discussed,” sources said.


My  Take :


Mr. Kamran Rizvi ,   MHI Secretary ( shioff@nic.in

Mr. Pawan Goenka , Head of the SCALE committee ( Chairman@inSpace.gov.in

Mr Vinod Aggarwal ,  President SIAM  /   vkaggarwal@vecv.in
 Mr Shailesh Chandra , Vice President SIAM / schandra220699@gmail.com / shailesh.chandra@tatamotors.com
 Shradha Suri Marwah , President, ACMA / acmawr@acma.in / acma@acma.in / ssuri@subros.com

 Vinnie Mehta  , Director General, ACMA /  vinnie.mehta@acma.in / dg@acma.in 


Dear Friends ,


News report reads > BOTH AMPS WERE NOT SUCCESSFUL

It does not pay to carry out a POST MORTEM

What is needed is to get from all the “ Stakeholders “, their sharp / specific SUGGESTIONS on what needs to be done by the Government , to male AMP-2047 , a success

As a user of car and as a citizen affected by Traffic Congestion and GHG emissions , I am a stakeholder

I urge you to circulate among other stakeholders, my following suggestions for a debate ( although somewhat outdated, being 5 YEARS old and focussed on accelerating change-over to Electric Vehicles )

FAME III   spanned April 2022 – March 2026 ( approx. 2 years still left )

There was no announcement for FAME IV ( - which, I assumed , if announced, might span Apr 26 – Mar 30 )

In the following tabulation, I have summarized various suggestions which I had made some 5 years ago.

To facilitate circulating and eliciting comments from stakeholders , I urge you to forward to them, following

TABULATED SUMMARY , where they can enter their comments and return to you

At the bottom of this blog , you will find details of my suggestions along with links to specific / related e-mails sent to our Cabinet Ministers

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

www.HemenParekh.ai  /  12  April  2024

 


SUMMARY  OF  SUGGESTIONS FOR  SENDING TO THE GOVERNMENT FOR

 INCLUSION IN AMP 2047

 

Context

My  Suggestion

Stakeholder Comments

 

 

 

FAME  III

( A.1 )  

 

Total exemption of Corporate Income Tax for companies exclusively engaged in the manufacture of :

Aluminium-Air Batteries

Sodium-ion  Batteries

Fuel Cell ( based on hydrolysis ) developed by  CECRI  

Other developments in fast-charging batteries   

  

 

Apr 22-Mar 26

 

 

 

( A.2 )   

Abolish Corporate Income Tax ( for 10 years ) for the

entire E Mobility Eco-System

 

( A.3 )  

Incentivizing the E Vehicle manufacturers

E Cars having Solar Rooftop powering a small Li-ion

Battery

 

Carbon Credits

 

Based on car specifications / assumed average

 

monthly usage  etc , figure out and fix Carbon Credits  

 

for each model of electric car manufactured

 

 

 

 

( A.4 )

Dis-incentivize manufacturers for production of Petrol / Diesel vehicles

 

 

 

( A.5 )

Incentivizing manufacturers to get into the “ Recycling of Old Vehicles “

 

 

 

( B.1 ) 

Incentivize for purchase of E Vehicles – especially, leasing of buses

 

 

( B.2 ) 

Incentivize Retro-fitting of old Petrol / Diesel vehicles 

 

 

( B.3 ) 

Incentivize to switch-over to E Bikes

     

 

 

( B.4

 Taxing all Vehicles based on their “ Harm Quotient 

 for environment Dis-incentivize purchase of

 Petrol / Diesel vehicles

 

 

 

( C.1 ) 

 Wet Leasing  

 

 

 

 

 

[   D  ]  

For taxis / rickshaws running on Hybrid fuel (

 

producing less Co2 ) or Electric Vehicles ( zero

 

emission ) both , the driver and the passenger will get

 

 

Carbon Credits  which will also get displayed on

 

the DigiMet as also on the FareCalc  Mobile App on

 

the smart phone of the passenger ( @ 20 % of the

 

fare payable ? )

 

 

 

 

[  E  ]   SOLAR  POWER  for  ELECTRIC  VEHICLES

 

Amendment to Electricity Act

 

Anyone can generate and SELL electricity , anytime and to anyone and at any price !

 

 

 

 

 

FAME  IV

 

April  2026 – March 2030    

 

 

 

 

 

 

Continuation of the policy of “ Encouraging Public

 

Transport “ ( Buses – Taxies – Metros etc )

 

 

 

 

 

 

Putting in place , a policy of  “ Shared Transport “ ( of

 

private cars which are barely used for 8 % of the

 

time )

 

Added on 12 April 2024 :

 

After 8 years, RoboTaxi on horizon

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Encouraging “ Remote Working “

 

 

 

 

 

Facilitating Video Conferencing ( eg : Skype –

 

FaceTime etc )

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nation-wide Internet connectivity ( through 100 Mbps

Optical Fibres )

 

 

 

 

 

All Mobile Services to be working on 5G

 

 

 

 

 

 

Internet through WIRELINE  BROADBAND , coupled with LI-FI in all homes

 

 

 

 

 

DETAILS :

Ø  FAME II > FAME III > FAME IV ………………………… 05  March  2019

 

Extract :

(  FAME  =  Faster Adoption and Manufacturing of Hybrid and Electric Vehicles  )

National E Mobility Mission Plan [ NEMP – 2012 ]

7 million E Vehicles on the roads by 2020

 

Enter  FAME

 

2015  Target   >   By 2030, all vehicles on Indian roads should be Electric  (  -  some 300 million ?  )

2016  Target   >   By 2030 , 25 % of the vehicles on Indian roads should be electric  ( -  75  million ?  )

 

FAME II  

( Ap 19 – Mar 22 ) -  3  Years ……….. EVs to get Cheaper

 

Highlights of FAME II :

#    Scheme starts on  ……………………………..    01  April  2019

#    Total value of Subsidy Package  ………….  Rs 10,000 Crore

 #   Charging Stations ( Rs 1,300 Cr )………….2,700

 

Current  Targets / Subsidy Amounts :

Type  of  E  Vehicle / Battery Capacity (KWh)

Target Number ( 3 YR  )

Subsidy Amount / Maximum Veh Price (Rs )

End Use prescribed

Buses

7,090

35-60 lakh        /   2  crore

Public Transport

Cars ( Hybrid )  /   15 - 25

20,000

5000-20,000    /  15  lakh

Taxi / Aggregator

Cars ( Electric )  /  15 - 25

35,000

1.5 - 2.5 lakh   /  15  lakh

Taxi / Aggregator

3 Wheelers        /   5 - 10

500,000

50,000-1 lakh  /    5  lakh

Commercial

2  Wheeler        /   2 – 4

1,000,000

20K-40K          /  1.5 lakh

Private use

 

Are these targets achievable  ?

Following figures speak for themselves :

Type of E - Vehicle

Target for 3 years

Therefore Per Year

Actual EV sold in 17-18

Buses

7,090

Approx. 2,300

Less than 200  ?

Cars ( Hybrid )

20,000

Approx. 7,000

NIL

Cars ( Electric )

35,000

20,000

1,200

3  Wheelers

500,000

175,000

132,000 ( low cap Ricks )

2  Wheelers

1,000,000

333,000

58,400

 

How much of above targets are likely to be achieved ?

Type of Veh

17-18(Actual)

18-19(Est)

19-20(Est)

20-21(Est)

3yr total(E)

3yr Target

%age likely

Buses

200

500

750

1000

2,250

7090

32

Cars ( Hy )

Nil

500

1,000

2,000

3,500

20,000

17.5

Cars ( E )

1,200

3,000

5,000

7,000

15,000

35,000

43

3 Wheelers

excluding E - Ricks with less than 5 KWh battery )

132,000

( all sold were under 5 kwh battery, which do not qualify for subsidy )

10,000

with battery bigger than 5 KWh )

15,000

25,000

50,000

500,000

10

2 Wheeler

58,400

75,000

100,000

125,000

300,000

1,000,000

30

Ref : 

https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/in/Documents/public-sector/in-ev-report.pdf

China has 250 million Electric 2 wheelers with annual sales of 30 million

 

What is the reason for this pessimism ?

 

#  Non-availability of “ Fast “ battery charging stations every few km, resulting in “ range anxiety “ for EV

    buyers

#  Maintenance / Service / Repair garages for Electric vehicles, on each corner ( new technology poses

    problems )

#  Despite the subsidies, ex-factory prices will still remain much higher than for equivalent Petrol / Diesel

    vehicles

#  Ramping up production is a very complex and time-consuming process. Not like turning on a tap !

 

What , if any , is the shortcoming of just announced FAME  II  ?

#     It focuses solely on “ Incentivizing the Buyers “ through subsidies

#    There are no “ Incentives “ for the vehicle manufacturers to ramp up production or commercialize “ cost

      reducing “ technologies, especially in the matter of Lithium-ion batteries which constitute up to 40 % of EV

      ex- factory price

 #    There are no “ dis-incentives “ for manufacture / sale / purchase of Petrol – Diesel vehicles

#    Linking the subsidy amounts with battery size is not the right method . In fact a vehicle with a smaller size

      battery , but giving same performance ( speed – range – charging time etc ) as a vehicle with a bigger

      battery, should be rewarded with higher subsidy ! Efficient use of input resources must be encouraged

 #  There is no directive with regard to scrapping of old ( more than 10 years ) petrol / diesel vehicles 

 

What would you recommend next ?

 

FAME  III  

(  Apr  22  -  Mar 26  ) – 4 years

[ A ]….. MANUFACTURERS

           ( A.1 )  

           Policy Instrument

           >  Corporate Income Tax  for  Incentivizing the manufacturers of Batteries

            Total exemption of Corporate Income Tax for companies exclusively engaged in the manufacture of :

 

           #  Aluminium-Air Batteries  (  No need for any roadside battery charging stations  ! )

                EV juice from Alu-Air Battery ?                            [  16  Jan 2018  ]

                Ashok Leyland is not waiting !                             [  17  Jan 2018  ]

                Holy Grail for Electric Vehicles                             [  17 Feb 2018  ]

 

     #  Sodium-ion  Batteries   (  Reduce battery cost to 10 % of Lithium-ion Battery cost ! )

               Congratulations , Shri GopuKumarji                       [  30  Jan  2019  ]

 

          #   Fuel Cell ( based on hydrolysis ) developed by  CECRI  (  literally FREE electricity and zero pollution )

               Ray , a drop of golden Sun                                    [  18  Feb  2019  ]

 

          #   Other developments in fast-charging batteries ( under 5 minutes for 80 % charge )

 

               A New Battery Could Store Ten Times the Power as Lithium-Ion  

               Piëch's electric coupe charges to 80 percent in five minutes

 

           ( A.2 )   Abolish Corporate Income Tax ( for 10 years ) for the entire E Mobility Eco-System

 

                From OLD to NEW ? No , go NEWER !                     [  22  Sept  2016  ]

                For EV , Andhra gets an A                                      [ 25  Dec  2017  ]

                NITI proposes : SIAM postpones                            [  20  Dec  2017  ]

                India : Energy Storage Mission                               [  04  Dec  2017  ]

  

         ( A.3 )  Incentivizing the E Vehicle manufacturers

                #  E Cars having Solar Rooftop powering a small Li-ion Battery

 

                     Way back in March 2017 , ISRO demonstrated a OMNI retro-fitted with a Solar Panel roof-top ,

                     charging a high density Lithium-ion Battery – eliminating need for roadside charging stations !

                     Most likely, such a car would cost under Rs 10 lakh

 

                     As against this , German company SONO MOTORS just released its own final design for a similar

                     car with solar roof top and a 35 KWh battery , selling for Euro 25,500 ( Rs 20.5 Lakh )

 

                     Government must go all out to persuade Indian Car Manufacturers to adopt ISRO technology

                     Not only, will we save lakhs of crore of Rupees in Battery Charging Infrastructure but we would

                     Be able to export millions of such E Cars all over the world

                     

                     #Solarcar #Electriccar                                              [  07  Nov   2017   ]

                      Holy Grail for Electric Vehicles                                    [  17  Feb  2018  ]

                     #ISRO #MSME #ElectricVehicle                                   [  13  Nov  2017  ]

                      EESL : Getting Away from Straitjacket ?                      [  26   Aug   2018   ]

                      Solar Panels charging Li-ion Batteries of Electric Cars ?   [   04  May   2017  ]       

                     

                Policy Instrument  

              >  Carbon Credits

               Based on car specifications / assumed average monthly usage  etc , figure out and fix

               *  " Carbon Credits " for each model of electric car manufactured

               *   Based on Carbon Credits earned , calculate Direct Transfer of Benefit ( DTB ) to electric

                    car manufacturers based on monthly dispatches of each model and then transfer these amounts

                    from EVFF ( Electric Vehicle Finance Fund ) , as incentives to manufacturers

                    PIYUSH PLAN ?                                               [  27  Mar  2016  ]

                    Gathering Speed at Snail’s Pace ?                     [  02  Oct  2018  ]

 

   

( A.4 ) …..  Dis-incentivize manufacturers for production of Petrol / Diesel vehicles

                This could be achieved by gradually raising the GST rate for such vehicles, starting from April

                2022 and simultaneously gradual reduction in the GST rate for Electric vehicles

 

          

( A.5 )  Incentivizing manufacturers to get into the “ Recycling of Old Vehicles “

           By ordering to stop usage of old vehicles in Delhi, already a serious problem has arisen in respect

           of  their storage and disposal

           When applied on all-India basis, this could lead to millions of old vehicles getting “ abandoned “

           and cluttering the city-scape

           But, this seeming nightmare could be turned into a profitable business opportunity by adoption of :

                 Car Grave-Yard of World ?                           [  14  Feb  2018   ]

 

==================================================================

[  B  ]   BUYERS

 

        ( B.1 )  Incentivize for purchase of E Vehicles – especially, leasing of buses. FAME  II ( just announced )

                   

                   #EV #ElectricVehicles #EESL #WetLease   [  13  May  2018  ]

 

                  Provide depreciation to private individual buyers

                  SIAM seeks SOPS                                      [  27  Dec   2017  ]

 

         ( B.2 )  Incentivize Retro-fitting of old Petrol / Diesel vehicles ( non-compliant with BS VI norms )

 

               Give subsidies to “Current Owners of Old Vehicles “ at 150 % of subsidies announced under FAME II

               ( source :   Missing piece of Jigsaw Puzzle ?   /  15  Nov  2018  )

                  

        ( B.3 )  Incentivize to switch-over to E Bikes

        

           Most users of 2 Wheelers (costing Rs 1.5 lakh – 2 lakh ) run for less than 10 Km in a one way trip

          For them , FAME II proposes a onetime subsidy of Rs 20,000 – Rs 40,000

          A cheaper / faster alternative would be to retro-fit a standard / normal cycle , costing Rs 15,000 , with a,

          Geo-Orbital wheel ( costing approx. Rs 20,000 ) to run 30 Km at a speed of 30 kmph

          What are the advantages ?

       #   India already produces 18 million cycles every year – largest in the world

       #   All of these are capable of being retro-fitted  by Geo-Orbital wheel ( takes just ONE minute ! )

       #   Electric Motor of Geo-Orbital wheel is just 500  Watts !

       #   Even if battery gets discharged half way , manual pedaling will work ! No range anxiety !

       #   Instead of giving a subsidy of Rs 40,000 for a factory-built Electric 2 wheeler, a subsidy of Rs 10,000

            For retro-fitting of Geo Orbital wheel, will enable 4 times as many ( = 4 million ) users to commute

            faster !

      #   Wheel can be re-charged at home at night , in 3-4 hours

      #   Bicycle riding can be done by persons less than 16 years of age and does not require a driving license !

              A Radical Radial Revolution !      [ 18  Aug  2016 ]

 

         How are other countries encouraging cycling for reducing fossil fuel pollution ?

         Following countries are “ paying “ citizens to use cycle :

 

         Per Km run :

        #    The Netherlands  …… $  0.22 / km [  = Rs   14  x 1000 km / month =  Rs  168,000 / year  ]

 

        #    UK …………………………. $  0.16 / km  [  = Rs  12   x  1000 km / month =  Rs  144,000 / year ]

 

        #    Belgium …………………  $  0.26 / km  [  = Rs  18   x  1000 km / month =  Rs  216,000 / year ]

 

        Fixed amount  :

        #    France  …………………  $  230 / year   [  =  Rs 16, 100  /  year  ]

 

        #    USA……………………..   $   240 / year  [  =  Rs  16,800  /  year  ]

 

        Fix Tax rebate to buy bicycle :

        #   Luxembourg………….  $  340    [  =  Rs  23,800  ]

            Connecting the News                 [   18  June  2018  ]

  

 

       ( B.4 )..  Policy Instrument  >  Taxing all Vehicles based on their “ Harm Quotient “ for environment

                     Dis-incentivize purchase of Petrol / Diesel vehicles

 

       Instead of spending / wasting scarce government funds to “ Subsidize “ the buyers for purchase of E

       Vehicles, ( and that too, for 3 years ) , it would be far better to “ dis-incentivize / penalize “ them ( and

       permanently ), by introduction of Pigovian TRANS-TAX on each and every vehicle , for its entire life ( no

       more “ Old Vehicles “only ), as conceptualized in detail , at :

        Transport : an Integrated Logistic Plan ?   [   20  Nov   2018  ]

 

==============================================

 

[  C  ]   GOVERNMENT

 

       ( C.1 )  P0licy Instrument  >   Wet Leasing  [  Thank You , Shri Jaitleyji  / 25  Dec  2018  ]

         

         Today , there is a total disconnect between E Vehicle manufacturers and Battery Charging Stations

         E Vehicle manufacturers have no incentive to set up charging stations , which, to them are the

         Responsibility of the Governments ( Central + States )

 

        This attitude will change overnight , if all government purchases of E Vehicles ( Central + State +

        Municipal ) are on a “ WET LEASE “ basis , where the lease rent is fixed on a “ Per Km “ of actual usage (

        instead of “ Per day / month “ ) . 

        For over a year , I have been urging EESL to switch-over to this instead of outright purchase

        To ensure that the E Cars supplied by them to the governments are never stopped because of battery

        discharge ( and waiting for its 5 hour wait / turn, to get charged at some charging station 10 km away ),

        the manufacturers will ensure putting in place, a vast network of Battery Charging Stations , ON THEIR

        OWN !

 

 [   D  ]  PASSENGERS OF  PUBLIC  TRANSPORT ( Non-Vehicle Owners )

           For taxis / rickshaws running on Hybrid fuel ( producing less Co2 ) or Electric Vehicles ( zero emission )

            both , the driver and the passenger will get " Carbon Credits " , which will also get displayed on

            the DigiMet as also on the FareCalc  Mobile App on the smart phone of the passenger ( @ 20 % of the

            fare payable ? )

       

           These amounts will get transferred to their respective Jan Dhan Bank Accounts ( thru DTB ) , every

           Quarter ( source :   Making Yourself Obsolete ?   /   14  Feb  2016  )

 

 

 

[  E  ]   SOLAR  POWER  for  ELECTRIC  VEHICLES

 

          Policy  Instrument  >  Amendment to Electricity Act

 

          Anyone can generate and SELL electricity , anytime and to anyone and at any price !

         ( source :  Not Good Enough !   /   02  Dec  2017  )

 

===================================================

 

FAME  IV

 [  April  2026 – March 2030  ]  - …… 4  YEARS

 

At the end of FAME II /  FAME  III  ( 3 + 4 = 7  years  ) , government must focus its attention and efforts on

finding and implementing, long term solutions .

Solutions which are aimed at “ Reducing Vehicles “ of all kinds from roads, by “ Reducing Need to Travel “

Without doubt , these will have following priorities :

#    Continuation of the policy of “ Encouraging Public Transport “ ( Buses – Taxies – Metros etc )

#    Putting in place , a policy of  “ Shared Transport “ ( of private cars which are barely used for 8 % of the

      time )

 

Going beyond these, “ Need to Travel “ ( in most cases ) , can be dramatically reduced by ,

#   Encouraging “ Remote Working “

#   Facilitating Video Conferencing ( eg : Skype – FaceTime etc )

The steps to achieve these twin objectives , are :

#   Nation-wide Internet connectivity ( through 100 Mbps Optical Fibres )

#   All Mobile Services to be working on 5G

#   Internet through WIRELINE  BROADBAND , coupled with LI-FI in all homes

References :

" BACK FACTORY " OF THE WORLD ?            [ 09  Sept  2015  ]

How About Virtual Call Centers ?                  [  04  Oct  2016  ]

Wormholes Across the World ?                     [  03  March  2017  ]

Will Holograms beat H1B Visa Ban ?             [  31  Jan  2017  ]

Peter’s WEB 3.0                                         [  09  Dec  2018  ]

#WiFi #LiFi #Broadband #Internet             [ 08  April   2018  ]