Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Sunday, 12 May 2024

Building ( Sun ) Castles in the Air ?

 


 

Context :

Rooftop solar scheme: 100,000 hands to be trained to put solar panels in homes    ..   ET .. 12 May 2024

Extract :

The government is working on readying a 100,000-strong workforce skilled in installation and management of solar panels to support its plan of helping 10 million homes run on solar energy.

People aware of the development said the ministries of renewable energy and skill development and entrepreneurship have jointly framed a “skilling plan” for the ‘PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana’, a government rooftop solar project that aims to help households generate 300 units of electricity through grid-connected solar panels.

The scheme, launched in February this year, offers subsidies of up to Rs 78,000 to those willing to install the solar power generating units. “The number of people to be trained may be increased, depending upon the requirement,” one of the persons cited earlier, said, adding that state-owned 
REC Ltd, which is also the nodal agency for the revamped rooftop solar programme, is likely to collaborate with centres like the National Power Training Institute and the National Skill Development Corporation for this.

Besides trained manpower, another challenge for such a scale of implementation would be the need for a large number of vendors. An official said the government is also looking to train 50,000 vendors for entrepreneurship.

According to the official, more vendors are expected to register on the
national rooftop solar portal, unlike the current system of registering with the distribution companies.

The renewable energy ministry recently shifted to a new portal and will soon start the national vendor registration process.

The PM Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana, which has an outlay of Rs 75,021 crore, entails implementation through power distribution companies and vendors with rationalised subsidies and collateral-free loans. Registrations under the scheme crossed the 10-million mark within a month of its launch.

Of the registered consumers, almost 800,000 have applied for installations.

 

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@narendramodi

 

Outstanding news! In about a month since it was launched, over 1 crore households have already registered themselves for the PM-Surya Ghar: Muft Bijli Yojana. Registrations have been pouring in from all parts of the nation. Assam, Bihar, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh have seen over 5 lakh registrations. Those who haven’t registered yet should also do so at the earliest. https://pmsuryaghar.gov.in

My Take :

( A )   A riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma ?

       On PM SuryaGhar portal , even today , there is NO MENTION of :

Ø  No of people who have already “ Registered “ ( Step # 1 )

Ø  No of people who have “ Applied “ for installation ( Step # 2 )

Ø  No of these “ Applications “ which are “ Accepted ( found OK , having submitted all required documents ) “ ( Step # 3 )

Ø  No of such “ Accepted Applications “ for which concerned DISCOM has carried out “ Feasibility Study “( Step # 4 )

Ø  No of Applicants for whom “ Feasibility Study “ is Okayed by the DISCOM ( Step # 5 )

Ø  No of Applicants for whom a Vendor has actually COMPLETED the installations ( Step # 6 )

Ø  No of such “ completed installations “ for which DISCOM has installed “ Net Metering “ by connecting to the GRID ( Step # 7 )

Ø  Upon receipt of “ Commissioning Report “ , No of applicants who have submitted bank details ( Step # # 8 )

Ø  No of such installations in respect of whom, subsidy has been CREDITED in their banks ( Step#9 )

 

( B )  Buiding Castles in the Air ?  

 

#   Despite their very best intentions, I do not see any way in which those

     Ministries concerned can  train 100,000 persons in

     Installation/Management of Solar Panels , even by March 2027 ( when

      the Scheme ends )

     

#   As of now , we have only 2979 Solar Panel installers in India. It is

     unlikely to raise this number to 50,000 vendors by March 2027

     

            #   Entire current process ( consisting of 9 steps listed earlier ) is TOO

                 ELABORATE and TIME  CONSUMING.

                  

                  This will become clear if SuryaGhar portal was to publish step-wise

                  data of the STATUS of the scheme, as suggested by me above . I

                 cannot escape the feeling that the completion of the whole process

                  would take , on an average , 6 MONTHS from registration

                  

            #    These considerations made me to predict that , as against the target

                   of 30 GW and 10 million  households , we may end up with no

                   more than 10 % of this target by March 2027

                   

 

( C )   Is there any alternative way by which we can achieve this target ?

           Yes

           I have described in detail my proposal in this regard at :

       Ø  Dawn of a Solar Economy : SETI  ……………06 May 2024

 

      My proposal consists of enabling 10,000Co-operative Solar Farms “ to

      come up , as originally  Proposed in my following e-mail to our Cabinet

      Ministers :

    

     A Tale of Two States ……………………………………….. 28 Oct 2020

 

    Is there any working example of your proposal ?

   Yes .  Take a look at 

   >     https://www.sundaygrids.com/     

   >     https://www.sundaygrids.com/how-it-works

 

   How long does it take to REGISTER on Sundaygrid – and start getting CREDITS

   for “ Your Booked Capacity “ of Solar Panels ?

   

   No more than 10 MINUTES 

 

  I registered at around 6 PM on 02 May 2024 ( from my mobile ) for 1.7 Kw , for

  an investment of Rs  84,000 ( ie: approx.. Rs 50,000 per Kw )

  

  By morning of 12 May 2024 ( ie: 9 Solar days ) , I have earned :


Ø  #   Credit ……………. Rs. 322.64

Ø  #   Kwh  ……………….. 62.648 ( ie; ave of 7 Kwh / day = 210 Kwh / month )


Following is a copy of Sundaygrid Dashboard today ( 12 May 2024 ):


Capacity Reserved.........1,707 W

 

Energy Produced..........64.637 KWh

 

Credits Earned.............₹332.88

 

Credits Estimated ( for month )....₹1,158 - ₹1,567

 ( assuming ave of Rs 1200 / month, this amounts to credit of Rs 14,000 / year )

And this data pertains to a 30 days FREE trial ( - at the end of which, I may make

online payment if happy with the solar power generation statistics )


This means I recover my investment ( Rs 84,000 ) in approx. 6 years

 

How would these figures look if I were to book 3kwh capacity ?


Ø  Initial investment ……Rs 1.2 lakh

Ø  Ave Kwh …………………10 Kwh /day(300 Kwh / month : same as Suryaghar Yojna )

Ø  Credits……………………  Rs 51 / day ( approx.. Rs 19,000 / year )

Ø  Payback Period ………120,000 / 19000 = About 6 years

 

However , in my e-mail of 06 May 2024 (  Dawn of a Solar Economy : SETI ) , I

have suggested that the subsidy must also be made available to those consumers

who ( because of constraint of insufficient roof area ) are “ booking “ generation

capacity in “ Co-op Solar Farms “ ( Sundaygrid type )


If this suggestion gets accepted then , against my investment of Rs 120,000 ( for

3 Kw capacity ) , I should get subsidy of Rs 78,000 , bringing down my own cost

to Rs 42,000


If so , my payback period will be > Rs 42,000 / Rs 19,000 = Approx 2  YEARS only  !    

 

Do you see what makes my proposalUNBEATABLE – IRRESTIBLE “ ?


Ø  Payback period ……………………………. 2    YEARS

Ø  Online “ Capacity Booking “ ……….. 10   MINUTES

Ø  Power ( credits ) start flowing……..  15   MINUTES

Ø  Subsidy receipt in ………………………   48  hours

Ø  Roof Area required …………………….   NIL  sq. ft

Ø  Maintenance Issues……………………… NONE  ( taken care by Co-op Solar Farm )

Ø  Production / Credit Data……………… Instant ( through online app / dashboard )

Ø  Donating power under CSR…………  Possible ( Corporates invest in Farms for poor

                                                                      recipients )


Last – and the most important :


10,000  Co-op Solar Farms “ will come up within ONE year – and each will train

 / employ 100 “ Panel Installers “ ( 10 lakh persons ) . No need for Ministries to

 undertake any training

 

With regards,


Hemen Parekh

www.HemenParekh.ai  /  13 May 2024

 

Related Readings :

Ø  Net metering key to rooftop sunshine  .. ET Editorial ……. 13 May 2024

 

Ø >        https://www.mercomindia.com/first-solars-thin-film-modules-dcr 

 

Ø  Modi govt's new solar scheme has three big hurdles

Ø   

 

Ø   

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday, 9 May 2024

Business @ Speed of Thought ?

 


This is the title of a book written by Bill Gates in 1999 .

It contained some of the earliest hints of software developments , aimed at speeding up businesses

That was long before tech community started talking about Artificial Intelligence ( AI )

But 25 years later, some decisions are still being taken @ speed of a snail !

Context :

EV policy to attract global players, help India become manufacturing hub: Experts

 

 Extract :

 

The government on Friday approved an electric-vehicle policy, under which duty concessions will be given to companies setting up manufacturing units in the country with a minimum investment of USD 500 million, a move aimed at attracting major global players like US-based Tesla.

Aligned with the government's vision of reducing carbon footprint, promoting sustainable manufacturing, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2070, the policy sets the stage for a vibrant future-mobility global manufacturing hub in India, Marwah said.

ICRA currently expects about 15 per cent of new car sales to be electric by 2030, he added.

"Further, countries that have been front-runners in EV adoption have also developed a local vendor ecosystem. This policy is a step in the right direction and would aid in increasing EV components localisation in India, which is currently at 30-40 per cent," Dewan stated.

As per industry estimates, the total EV sales in India stood at around 10 lakh units in 2022.

 

 

Centre approves game-changing EV policy: Tesla arrival imminent .. TOI

Extract :

Key highlights of the policy include a minimum investment requirement of Rs 4,150 crore (approximately USD 500 million), with no ceiling on the maximum investment amount.
Companies establishing manufacturing facilities for EVs will be granted a three-year window to set up operations in India and to begin production of EVs. Furthermore, within a maximum period of five years, these manufacturers are mandated to achieve a 50 percent domestic value addition (DVA) during the manufacturing process. The policy also says that a localisation level of 25 percent must be achieved by the third year.

For the global players who intend to set up facilities in India, much like Elon Musk-led Tesla, limited imports of EVs will be permitted at a lower customs duty rate of 15 percent for vehicles with a minimum CIF (cost, insurance, freight) value of USD 35,000. At percent, an import duty of 70 percent is levied on the electric vehicles falling under this category.


However, this concessional rate will be applicable only if the manufacturer establishes manufacturing facilities in India within a three-year timeframe with an investment of USD 500 million. Speaking of Tesla, the US-based marque has been asking for a reduction in import taxes for a while now. Recently, another company VinFast from Vietnam also said they want the import taxes to be lower.
The amount of duty not paid on all the EVs allowed to be brought into the country will be limited to the money invested or Rs 6,484 crore, whichever is less. Also, no more than 40,000 EVs can be brought in each year, following specific rules. To make sure that companies follow the rules of the scheme, the manufacturers will have to provide a bank guarantee equal to the duty not paid, which will be used if they don't meet the specified criteria for domestic value addition (DVA) and investment.


India okays EV policy with tax relief to rev up manufacturing dream & lure foreign players like Tesla

 

Extract :

 For vehicles with a minimum CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) value of $35,000, a 15% customs duty (as applicable to Completely Knocked Down units) will be levied for a duration of five years, subject to the manufacturer setting up manufacturing facilities in India within a 3-year period. The duty foregone on the total number of EVs permitted for import will be capped at the investment made or ₹6,484 crore (equal to incentive under PLI scheme). Additionally, a maximum of 40,000 EVs, at a rate not exceeding 8,000 per year, will be allowed if the investment surpasses $800 million.


Manufacturers will be required to establish manufacturing facilities in India within a three-year timeline and commence commercial production of EVs. They must achieve a domestic value addition (DVA) of at least 50% within five years. Moreover, a localisation level of 25% by the third year is mandated.

 

 

 

Tesla at the gates, India rolls out red carpet for global EV makers

 

Extract :

Minimum Domestic Value Addition :

Ø  Third Year ………………………………. 25 %

Ø  Fifth Year ………………………………… 50 %

Only EVs worth over $ 35,000 ( approx. Rs 30 Lakh ) covered under the Scheme . Clubbing together local taxes and markrting margins, such an imported vehicle is expected to retail at closer to Rs 40 lakhs

According to Automobile Industry data, more than 80 % of the Indian Car Market , or 3.2 million annually, comprises cars retailing at less than Rs 15 lakh per unit

The total number of vehicles worth more than $ 35,000 a unit, being sold in the country is about LESS THAN a lakh and about 1 – 1.5 % of the total market

Sharply reduced rate of 15 % customs duty for upto 8,000 EVs annually imported by a company that commits to Make in India

Carry over of any unutilized annual import limits will be permitted

 

 

Joe Biden set to crack down on auto emissions to accelerate EV sales   .. ET   … 17 Mar 2024

 

Extract :

 

Emissions limits set to be finalised by the Environmental Protection Agency within days would propel electric vehicle sales well beyond current levels. The EPA has projected that to meet proposed mandates, electric models would need to make up roughly two-thirds of car and light truck sales in 2032 - up from less than a tenth last year.

The measure, which sets limits on smog-forming pollution, soot and carbon dioxide emissions, is seen as one of the most consequential climate regulations being imposed by President Joe Biden. It's also key to helping the US fulfill its Paris Agreement commitment to at least halve the country's greenhouse gas emissions by 2030. The transportation sector is the biggest source of planet-warming pollution in the US today.


"Cars and light trucks on their own are roughly 20% of the carbon footprint," said Manish Bapna, head of the Natural Resources Defense Action Fund. Cutting that is "absolutely essential to real, concrete progress."

 

 

My  Take :

 

After reading my following e-mails ( to our Cabinet Ministers and to Elon Musk ) , if you feel that this ( dialogue between Govt and Musk ) has been more of a “ Sparring Game “ , you cannot be blamed :


Ø  Will Tesla follow Apple ?  …………………………….. 23 May 2017

 

Extract :

Govt has proposed to Apple , the following Phased Manufacturing Program ( PMP ) :

 

2017-18  :

Mechanics , Die-cast parts, Microphone and Receiver , Key Pad and USB cable

 

2018-19  :

Populated Printed Circuit Boards, Camera Modules, and Connectors

  

2019-20  :

Display Assembly, Touch Panels , Vibrator Motor and Ringer

 

Nothing revolutionary here to anyone who applied for an Industrial Manufacturing License , around 1970  !

 

 At that time , one was required to submit a PMP , along with the IL Application

 

And , even provide the figures of increasing “ local content ( by value ) “ in the selling price of the product proposed to be manufactured locally ( indigenization  )

 

And even provide , figures of “ Anticipated Value “ of Import Licenses required for each phase ! And provide figures for components imported and products made / sold , each year !

 

One only hopes that what Govt proposes to Apple is made “ public “ on DIPP web site so that there is ,

 

    Total transparency

  

·         No ambiguity  (  no scope for arbitrariness  / discretion  )

 

      Absolute clarity

 

 And if an identical policy frame work is prepared – and made public on DIPP web site – in respect of Electric Vehicles , there would be no need for Elon Musk to tweet ( his apprehensions ) , nor any need for a tweeted response !

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Dear Elon :

 

 For immediate approval ( in 24 hours ) , pl submit your PMP as follows :

 

 2017-18  :

 Set up factory next to Mundra Port ( Gujarat ) to facilitate world-wide exports

  

2018-19  :

 Source locally , Tyres / Chasis / Body / Electricals  / Windows / Dashboards ..etc

 

 2019-20   :

Manufacture in your own factory , Li-ion Battery  / Wall-mounted Powerpack Storages / Solar Roof Tiles

 

2020-21  :

 Manufacture  RFID Sensors - Cameras – GPS locators

  

2021-22   :

 Augmented Reality  Devices  /  Autonomous Navigation Devices ( Radar – Lidar  )

 

 

Now , it is very possible that neither Shri Gadkariji , nor Shri Goyalji , would be satisfied with such a slow PMP , spread out over a period of 5 years

 

 They may , well request  Elon to cut it down to 3 years

 

 And , if they do, I get a feeling that Elon would telescope the entire PMP , in 2 YEARS !

 

With regards,

Hemen Parekh

www.HemenParekh.ai  /  10 May 2024

 

Related Readings :

2017 ( 7 )

Will Tesla follow Apple ?............................                 23 May 2017 

ENABLE ELON TO CATALYSE !  …………………………………….. 15 June 2017

Welcome ! Elon Musk ………………………………………………       10 Feb 2017

From ELON to ION …………………………………………………………. 11 May 2017

Is it NOW or NEVER ? …………………………………………………….. 23 June 2017

Elon : Hesitation Can Hurt ! …………………………………………….03 July 2017

Elon : Widow Opens ( Door is not closed, either )…………. 07 July 2017

2018 ( 1 )

A  Phased  Manufacturing  Program  ?  ……………………………. 23 Apr 2018

2019 ( 1 )

FAME II > FAME III > FAME IV …………………………………….. 05 Mar 2019

 2020  ( 5 )

To beat OR not to beat ?........................... ………………. 29 Dec 2020 

Fastest Finger First ? …………………………………………………….. 07 Oct 2020 

ARA & M Ltd ? ……………………………………………………………….. 02 Oct 2020 

Enough to entice Elon ? …………………………………………………. 03 Nov 2020

The Race is on ! …………………………………………… ………………… 23 Oct 2020

2021  ( 12 )

Import Duties : Time to get Rational  ………………………….  27 July 2021

Hey Elon , What is so difficult ?........................... ……. 15 Aug 2021

Elon : It is a matter of GIVE and TAKE………………………….. 30 Aug 2021

Tesla Talking ?........................................................  29 Aug 2021

Hey, Elon seems to have a case ! …………………………………. 27 July 2021

Can TESLA beat MATAM ? …………………………………………….. 24 July 2021

Cheaper in Gujarat ? – At least for Now ………………………. 23 June 2021

Nitin Gadkariji : Architect of NEAP………………………… …….. 07 Jan 2021

A Brief History of Electric Vehicles in India ………………….. 30 Jan 2021

Elon Musk : We offer a GREEN CARPET…………………………. 03 Mar 2021

Elementary, my dear Watson ! …………………………………….. 17 Jan 2021

At long last, TESLA is here ! …………………………………………… 13 Jan 2021

2022  ( 2  )

ELON , You have missed the Bus / by 5 YEARS  ……………15 Feb 2022

Holding out an Olive branch ? No, entire Olive Tree !...  17 Feb 2022

2023 ( 2 )

A push for endless litigation ?...................... ……………..14 Nov 2023

Elon Musk, Welcome to Tesla’s Toughest Test……………… 17 May 2023

 ===============================================

Additional Reading :

Ø  50 % DAV ? No problem  .. …………………………… 16  Nov 2023

 

Extract :


#   As per Shri Goyal , in 2023 , Tesla is likely to import parts from India , worth $

     2 billion


#   As per news reports, to begin with, Tesla plans to import / sell in India , fully

      assembled EV priced ( in USA ? ) at $ 25,000

     

#  Let us assume $ 25,000 as FOB price , taking the CIF price to $ 30,000 ( with

     freight / insurance added )


#  Let us assume import duty ( proposed ) is 30 % on $ 30,000 = $ 9,000


#  So , landed cost would come to $ 39,000


#  Add to this “ distribution cost + dealer’s margin “ of 20 % ( ie . approx. $

    8000 )


#  Hence “ Net Selling Price “ would come to $ 47,000


#  To this , add GST @ 5 % ( ie. $ 2350 ) – taking the final price to $ 49,350 , on

     the road ( ignoring registration fees if any )

    

#  Let us assume that , in each of the first 2 years , Tesla sells 20,000 cars


#  Hence its annual revenue would be > 20,000 x $ 50,000 ( rounded off ) = $

    1,000,000,000 ( $ 1 Billion )


#  Now , if Tesla purchases only $ 500 million worth of local components for its

    India operations , from 2nd year , it could show a DVA ( Domestic Value

     Addition ) of 50 % !

  

   Tesla is already buying $ 1 Billion worth of Indian Components ( for its USA +

   Germany+ China, operations )

    Buying $ 500 milllion worth of components from Indian suppliers for its Indian

    factory, would pose NO  PROBLEM !