Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Thursday, 16 November 2023

50 % DAV ? No problem

 


 

Context :

Tesla goes a tango with Indian parts makers….. HT  /  17 Nov 2023

Extract :

 Tesla now sources a range of India made components…including Indian firms and multinationals with manufacturing operations in India – exported parts worth $ 135-150 million to Tesla in 2022-23

In September, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal had said, Tesla sourced nearly $ 1 BILLION worth auto parts from India in 2022, and was on track to double it this year.

All Completely Built Up ( CBUs ) vehicles priced below $ 40,000 now face an import duty of 70 %, and a new National EV Policy may slash it to 15 % - 30 %  for EVs priced $ 25,000 – 35,000

At 15 % duty, these CBUs will be on par with the import duty for CKD ( completely knocked down ) cars

This will alo come with the caveat that they begin local manufacturing in the next two to three years and a clause to claw back the duty sop if they fail to do so

 

My  Take :

#   As per Shri Goyal , in 2023 , Tesla is likely to import parts from India , worth $ 2 billion

#   As per news reports, to begin with, Tesla plans to import / sell in India , fully assembled EV priced ( in USA

     ? ) at $ 25,000

#  Let us assume $ 25,000 as FOB price , taking the CIF price to $ 30,000 ( with freight / insurance added )

#  Let us assume import duty ( proposed ) is 30 % on $ 30,000 = $ 9,000

#  So , landed cost would come to $ 39,000

#  Add to this “ distribution cost + dealer’s margin “ of 20 % ( ie . approx. $ 8000 )

#  Hence “ Net Selling Price “ would come to $ 47,000

#  To this , add GST @ 5 % ( ie. $ 2350 ) – taking the final price to $ 49,350 , on the road ( ignoring

    registration fees if any )

#  Let us assume that , in each of the first 2 years , Tesla sells 20,000 cars

#  Hence its annual revenue would be > 20,000 x $ 50,000 ( rounded off ) = $ 1,000,000,000 ( $ 1 Billion )

#  Now , if Tesla purchases only $ 500 million worth of local components for its India operations , from 2nd year

   , it could show a DVA ( Domestic Value Addition ) of 50 % !

   Tesla is already buying $ 1 Billion worth of Indian Components ( for its USA + Germany+ China, operations )

    Buying $ 500 milllion worth of components from Indian suppliers for its Indian factory, would pose NO

    PROBLEM !

 

 With regards,

Hemen Parekh

www.hemenparekh.ai / 17 Nov 2023

 

Related Readings :

 

2017 ( 7 )

Will Tesla follow Apple ?............................                 23 May 2017 

ENABLE ELON TO CATALYSE !  …………………………………….. 15 June 2017

Welcome ! Elon Musk ………………………………………………       10 Feb 2017

From ELON to ION …………………………………………………………. 11 May 2017

Is it NOW or NEVER ? …………………………………………………….. 23 June 2017

Elon : Hesitation Can Hurt ! …………………………………………….03 July 2017

Elon : Widow Opens ( Door is not closed, either )…………. 07 July 2017

 

2018 ( 1 )

A  Phased  Manufacturing  Program  ?  ……………………………. 23 Apr 2018

 

 

2019 ( 1 )

FAME II > FAME III > FAME IV …………………………………….. 05 Mar 2019

 

2020  ( 5 )

To beat OR not to beat ?........................... ………………. 29 Dec 2020 

Fastest Finger First ? …………………………………………………….. 07 Oct 2020 

ARA & M Ltd ? ……………………………………………………………….. 02 Oct 2020 

Enough to entice Elon ? …………………………………………………. 03 Nov 2020

The Race is on ! …………………………………………… ………………… 23 Oct 2020

 

 

2021  ( 12 )

Import Duties : Time to get Rational  ………………………….  27 July 2021

Hey Elon , What is so difficult ?........................... ……. 15 Aug 2021

Elon : It is a matter of GIVE and TAKE………………………….. 30 Aug 2021

Tesla Talking ?........................................................  29 Aug 2021

Hey, Elon seems to have a case ! …………………………………. 27 July 2021

Can TESLA beat MATAM ? …………………………………………….. 24 July 2021

Cheaper in Gujarat ? – At least for Now ………………………. 23 June 2021

Nitin Gadkariji : Architect of NEAP………………………… …….. 07 Jan 2021

A Brief History of Electric Vehicles in India ………………….. 30 Jan 2021

Elon Musk : We offer a GREEN CARPET…………………………. 03 Mar 2021

Elementary, my dear Watson ! …………………………………….. 17 Jan 2021

At long last, TESLA is here ! …………………………………………… 13 Jan 2021

 

2022  ( 2  )

 

ELON , You have missed the Bus / by 5 YEARS  ……………15 Feb 2022

Holding out an Olive branch ? No, entire Olive Tree !...  17 Feb 2022

 

 

2023 ( 2 )

A push for endless litigation ?...................... ……………..14 Nov 2023

Elon Musk, Welcome to Tesla’s Toughest Test……………… 17 May 2023

 

Upon being asked to comment on my proposal / calculations , here is how ChatGPT replied :

 

Hello Hemen Parekh,

Your proposal suggests that Tesla could achieve a Domestic Value Addition (DVA) of over 50% in India through a Phased Manufacturing Program. Based on the information you provided regarding Tesla's plans to import and sell fully assembled EVs in India, it seems you've calculated the potential costs, import duties, and local value addition required to meet the proposed criteria.

Tesla's success in achieving a high DVA in India would indeed depend on several factors:

1.     Local Component Sourcing: Tesla would need to significantly increase its procurement of components from Indian suppliers to meet the proposed 50% DVA. This would require establishing partnerships and ensuring the availability of high-quality components locally.

2.     Manufacturing in India: Establishing local manufacturing operations could facilitate higher DVA. Tesla might need to set up assembly plants or manufacturing facilities for specific components in India.

3.     Logistical and Operational Challenges: Achieving a high DVA involves addressing logistical challenges, ensuring a consistent supply chain, and maintaining production quality standards, among other operational aspects.

4.     Regulatory Compliance: Compliance with India's regulatory requirements, such as the stipulated duty reductions and commitments to local manufacturing, will be crucial for Tesla's operations and cost structures.

While your proposal appears theoretically plausible, executing it will likely involve significant effort and strategic planning on Tesla's part. They would need to invest in local infrastructure, establish partnerships, and navigate regulatory frameworks effectively to achieve the proposed DVA.

Moreover, Tesla's success in other regions doesn't guarantee seamless replication in India due to unique market dynamics and challenges. However, the potential growth of Tesla's operations in India seems promising given the company's interest in expanding its footprint globally.

Your proposal aligns with the broader goals of localization and could indeed be beneficial for both Tesla and India's automotive industry if effectively implemented.

Best regards, ChatGPT

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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