Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Thursday, 21 September 2017

Shelter @ Speed of Snail ? [ S 3 ]



Economic Times ( 22 Sept ) carries following news report titled :




Govt Unveils New Policy to Spur ‘ Housing for All



Public – private partnership policy aims to attract private investments , use idle lands to meet target


For private investments in affordable housing , the policy comprises :



#  2  PPP models for Private Lands


#  6  PPP models for Government Lands



The six models using government lands are: 


1.  DBT MODEL:

Under this option, private builders can design, build and transfer houses built on government lands to public authorities. Government land is to be allocated based on the least cost of construction. Payments to builders will be made by the public authority based on progress of project as per agreed upon milestones and buyers will pay to the Government.


 

2. MIXED- DEVELOPMENT CROSS –SUBSIDIZED HOUSING :

Government land to be allotted based on number of affordable houses to be built on the plot offered to private builders, cross subsidizing this segment from revenues from high end house building or commercial development.
 

3. ANNUITY-BASED SUBSIDIZED HOUSING:

Builders will invest against deferred annuity payments by the Government. Land allocation to builders is based on unit cost of construction.

 

4. ANNUITY-CUM-CAPITAL GRANT BASED AFFORDABLE HOUSING:

Besides annuity payments, builders could be paid a share of project cost as upfront payment



5. DIRECT RELATIONSHIP OWNERSHIP HOUSING:

As against government mediated payments to builders and transfer of houses to beneficiaries in the above four models, under this option, promoters will directly deal with buyers and recover costs. Allocation of public land is based on unit cost of construction.
 


6. DIRECT RELATIONSHIP RENTAL HOUSING:

Recovery of the costs by builders is through rental incomes from the houses built on government lands. 


=================================

BACKGROUND :



#  " Housing for All " mission was launched in June 

      2015 , to construct 200 Lakh houses by 2022

      


#   As of Sept 2016 ,  construction of 9 lakh houses

     was approved by the Ministry of Housing

     


#   Of these , some 72,000 houses were under 

     construction across 7 states


#  As on Sept 2016, only 2,883 houses have been

    completed 1719 in Gujarat / 718 in

    Chhattisgarh / 446 in Tamil Nadu )


#   Out of 36 States plus UT , 15 have not even sent 

     their proposals to the Ministry !



At this rate , by  2022 ,  I expect following situation :


#    5 Lakh ....  under construction

#    25,000.... completed

#      5,000 .... allotted

=================================

QUESTIONS :


#  Has there been dramatic improvement / progress
    in last one year , since Sept 2016  ?


#  With 5 years left ( 2015-2022  target period ) , is

     there even a slim chance that the new policy can

    enable us to wave some kind of a MAGIC 

     WAND  to construct 200 lakh

    houses , instead of my projection of 5 lakh ?
    

#  Although this  NEW POLICY  has incorporated 
     most of my suggestions from Email :


ADream  House  by 2020  ?  [ 01  Sept  2015  ]


 what “ issues “ remain unanswered in the NEW        POLICY ?


#  How can these “ Unanswered Issues “ get 
    addressed  ?

=================================


ANSWER  :

I wish the Policy Makers had taken a few minutes to carefully read my following E Mails :

=================================


·         Quantum Jumpof 50 Million Houses  ?  [ 13  Feb  2016  ]

 

=================================


·         Poor  Planning for  Urban  Poor ?24  May  2016 ]

 

=================================

·         3 D  Printed Office ?  [ 27  May  2016  ]



=================================


·         Housingfor All ?  Status Report  [ 09  Sept  2016  ]
 

=================================


·         Good  Policy : Devil is in details  [ 10  Dec  2016  ]



=================================


·         Future  Home is  Here  [  02  March  2017  ]





Dear Shri Hardeep Singh Puriji  :



Having taken over the portfolio of Housing and Urban Affairs , only recently , you may not have had a chance to read my earlier emails

I urge you to do so


=================================

22  Sept  2017








How Much Investment to go Electric ?



India wants to completely switch-over to Electric Vehicles by 2030


So do many other countries ( ranging from 2030 to 2040 ) – including Germany


But Germans are a very methodical / determined / precision-minded people


They don’t like to leave anything to chance !


So , when it comes to change-over to Electric Cars , here is what the German companies have planned ( source : Economic Times / 16 Sept )



#  The Volkswagen Group

     Investment in excess of 50 BILLION Euros
     It has also declared its intent of becoming the largest electric vehicle maker by 2025


     Matthias Muller , global CEO of the group says :


    “ 2030 is like day after tomorrow . Transformation of our industry is unstoppable
     and we are going to lead this

================================

#  Mercedes Benz

    Plans to invest 10 Billion Euros


================================

#  BMW  Group

    Plans to have 25 electric models by 2025

================================



#  Jaguar Land Rover

     Plans to electrify entire range by 2020


=======================================================


Indian Car Manufacturers , too are formulating their plans


But how much do they plan to invest ?



Only a few ( like M&M ) have declared figures for their planned investments – totalling less than 1 Billion Euros !


Then there is news of SoftBank’s rumoured investment of $ 100 million in Chetan Maini’s Sun Mobility


In light of this , Shri Amitabh Kant’s following observations ( Eco Times / 21 Sept ) provide interesting framework for Indian Car Manufacturers :


=======================================================


“ Indian manufacturers should not just try to address domestic demand for zero-emission vehicles , but tap also into global markets to build scale and bring down cost


It cannot be business as usual because vehicle makers in India will be impacted by what is happening globally


They have to think of addressing domestic demand and also think of scaling up in global markets , which will help bring down cost of electric vehicles


By 2025-26 , the cost of owning an electric vehicle will be at par with one running on conventional fuel


With battery cost declining , 2030 will be the tipping point for electric vehicles in the automotive industry


As far as India is concerned, the country should adopt a technology-agnostic approach as the last word on zero-emission vehicles – be it electric , hydrogen fuel or some alternate technology – has not been said


But overall potential is immense . Low per-capita car ownership in India will be advantageous for the country for mass adoption of electric vehicles


At present , car ownership in India is 20 vehicles per 1,000 citizens , in comparison to 800 in the US and 85 in China .


Besides , shorter ride distances – around 80 % of rides in the country are less than 5 km in terms of distance – and emphasis on generation of solar energy will further aid the country in this switch-over to cleaner mobility solutions by 2030  “


======================================================= 

    
Since Shri Gakariji says :


#  He has already cleared the ELECTRIC VEHICLE POLICY on Wednesday ( 20 Sept )


#  NITI Aayog will send it to the Cabinet in a couple of weeks for its approval ,



the above-mentioned statements of Shri Kant ( who is the architect of the policy document ) can be treated as a PREVIEW / TRAILER , of the MOVIE ( the ROAD MAP ) that gets launched soon !



Dear Auto Industry :



Do not be surprised to find that this POLICY  contains most of what I have suggested in :


Gadkariji  is Angry  [  12  Sept  2017  ]







21  Sept  2017




Wednesday, 20 September 2017

Killing an Elephant with a Needle ?



Recent news reports say , Indian cigarette industry is in trouble


Last quarter , sales declined by some 9 % , presumably because cigarette prices went up by 23 % , due to increased taxes


Come 28 Feb ( next budget ) and very likely the taxes will go up even further , as these have , year after year


But if government is hoping that rising prices alone will stop people from smoking – and dying - , it is not likely to happen , any time soon !


And 60 lakh of people will continue to die in India every year due to smoking induced cancer


All over the World , tobacco smoking killed 7.1 million people in 2016 , as per a study / survey conducted by Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation ( HME ) , at the University of Washington


But these unnaturally early deaths can be prevented , should the Government were to adopt a long term ROAD MAP , as described in my following blog :


Going Upin Smoke ?  [  18  Aug   2013  ]


If there is a political will , it is not difficult to save 60 lakh lives every year !




21  Sept  2017



Nash Equilibrium ?



In Game Theory , Nash Equilibrium is defined as follows :


===============================


The Nash equilibrium is a solution concept of a non-cooperative game involving two or more players in which each player is assumed to know the equilibrium strategies of the other players, and no player has anything to gain by changing only his own strategy.


If each player has chosen a strategy and no player can benefit by changing strategies while the other players keep theirs unchanged, then the current set of strategy choices and the corresponding payoffs constitutes a Nash equilibrium

==============================================


I don’t know whether Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un , have ever read  Game Theory  or even heard of John Nash


But they seem to be playing their Ping Pong game accordingly !



Here is how ,



FIRST ROUND :

#  Kim …………. We are not afraid of US bullying

#  Trump………  Do not provoke us




SECOND ROUND :

#  Kim……….    We will teach you a lesson

#  Trump……    Fire and Fury




THIRD ROUND :

#   Kim………   We will send you some shocking gifts

#   Trump…..  All options are on table / nothing ruled out




FOURTH ROUND :

#  Kim………   We will sink Japan and destroy US cities

#  Trump…..  We will totally destroy North Korea ( in UN speech , yesterday )




Question :


Does anyone know whether in real life , a “ War of Words “  , can be made to remain in a state of  “ Perpetual Equilibrium “ – and be known as “ Blame Game Theory “ ?



Answer  :


It has been demonstrated recently that , left to themselves , Robots controlled by Artificial Intelligence , were able to “ invent “ their own language which was unintelligible to humans !


May be they can be requested to paraphrase and perpetuate this Equilibrium as follows :


#   Kim……………..  & % $ # @

#   Trump…………. ( ) & ^ $ @ +




21  Sept  2017