50 years ago , Companies ( - and even
entire Industries ) used to get obsolete in 50 years
20 years ago , that obsolescence started
happening in 20 years
Nowadays , that is happening in 10 years
!
Hence , it is possible that by 2026 , all
cars coming out of factories , are AUTONOMOUS ( no need for a driver )
If all cars were to become AUTONOMOUS (
not needing someone to drive ) , then what would drivers do ?
Obviously , they will need to acquire new
/ different skills , in order to survive
In USA , average car runs for only 4 % of the time and has average of 1.5
person occupancy.
In India , utilization could be 10% and occupancy could be 3 persons
It
is possible that the DRIVERLESS cars used as Ride-Sharing taxies , run 100 % of
the time ( round the clock )
That would enormously increase their
" Maintenance " needs , which, besides routine mechanical maintenance
, would need maintenance of altogether NEW onboard devices such as , Cameras /
Radars / Lidars / GPS systems / Controllers / Collision Avoidance Gear / Wi-Fi / Data Processors and a host of other
electronics
So , today's drivers would need to learn
new skills of maintaining such devices
Some of them may even learn the skills
required to " manufacture " such devices , in factories
Except that there will be much fewer cars
on the roads !
If there is one lesson to be learned from
advances of technologies , it is that many current jobs will disappear and get
taken over by " Robots " ( driverless cars will be driven by an
invisible robot ! )
Over the past 50 years , I have noticed
gradual disappearance ( in India ), of :
#
Craftsmen who roamed the streets , sharpening knives , ginning cotton in
old mattresses , tinning brass
utensils, re-denting flour-grinders made of stones , welding plastic
buckets, darning worn-out clothes etc
# Salesmen who went from house-to-house ,
selling fabric
#
Tailors who brought their sewing machine to your house to sew your dresses
#
Women who walked the streets , bartering utensils for old clothes
#
Fellow who ran from one light pole to another , turning on gas lever to
light-up the street lamps ( was common
sight in Mumbai in 1944 )
#
Vendors who ran inside a Cinema Hall during intervals to sell tea /
cigarettes
# Street advertisers who distributed cinema
pamphlets , riding in a horse-buggy
# Artists who painted ( manually ) , cinema
posters on roadsides
# Night
Criers ( Albel-walla ), who urged people to stay alert ( Jagte Raho )
May be , during their own life-time ,
they did or did not find alternate jobs but I think their children never
followed in the footsteps of their parents
!
As per Kevin Kelly ( writing in his book " Inevitable " ) :
*
By 2050 , all trucks on USA highways will be driven built-in ROBOT drivers
*
By 2100 , 70 % of ALL jobs in USA ( manual or mental ) will get replaced
by ROBOTS
India's
Policy Makers will do well to realize that a ROBOT in a USA factory or office , will do the job
cheaper than a human in India who is getting ONE-TENTH the wages of a US worker
! And do it more precisely without demanding a salary rise or going on a strike
!
This
is the reason behind manufacturers in today's DEVELOPED / HIGH WAGE countries rushing into
automation and Artificial Intelligence ( AI )
So
, a lower Wage / Salary in India , will cease to be our advantage , before long
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
01
Oct 2016
www.hemenparekh.in / blogs
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