Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do.

There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Friday, 30 September 2016

What would Drivers do ?

50 years ago , Companies ( - and even entire Industries ) used to get obsolete in 50 years

20 years ago , that obsolescence started happening  in 20 years
Nowadays , that is happening in 10 years !

Hence , it is possible that by 2026 , all cars coming out of factories , are AUTONOMOUS ( no need for a driver )

If all cars were to become AUTONOMOUS ( not needing someone to drive ) , then what would drivers do ?

Obviously , they will need to acquire new / different skills , in order to survive

In USA , average car runs for only 4 % of the time and has average of 1.5 person occupancy.

In India , utilization could be 10% and occupancy could be 3 persons
 It is possible that the DRIVERLESS cars used as Ride-Sharing taxies , run 100 % of the time ( round the clock )

That would enormously increase their " Maintenance " needs , which, besides routine mechanical maintenance , would need maintenance of altogether NEW onboard devices such as , Cameras / Radars / Lidars / GPS systems / Controllers / Collision Avoidance Gear /  Wi-Fi / Data Processors and a host of other electronics

So , today's drivers would need to learn new skills of maintaining such devices
Some of them may even learn the skills required to " manufacture " such devices , in factories

Except that there will be much fewer cars on the roads !

If there is one lesson to be learned from advances of technologies , it is that many current jobs will disappear and get taken over by " Robots " ( driverless cars will be driven by an invisible robot ! )

Over the past 50 years , I have noticed gradual disappearance ( in India ), of :

#   Craftsmen who roamed the streets , sharpening knives , ginning cotton in old mattresses , tinning brass

     utensils, re-denting flour-grinders made of stones , welding plastic buckets, darning worn-out clothes etc

#   Salesmen who went from house-to-house , selling fabric

#   Tailors who brought their sewing machine to your house to sew your dresses

#   Women who walked the streets , bartering utensils for old clothes

#   Fellow who ran from one light pole to another , turning on gas lever to light-up the street lamps ( was common
     sight in Mumbai in 1944 )

#   Vendors who ran inside a Cinema Hall during intervals to sell tea / cigarettes

#   Street advertisers who distributed cinema pamphlets , riding in a horse-buggy

#   Artists who painted ( manually ) , cinema posters on roadsides

#   Night Criers ( Albel-walla ), who urged people to stay alert ( Jagte Raho )

May be , during their own life-time , they did or did not find alternate jobs but I think their children never followed in the footsteps of their parents  !

As per Kevin Kelly ( writing in his book " Inevitable " ) :

*  By 2050 , all trucks on USA highways will be driven built-in ROBOT drivers

*  By 2100 , 70 % of ALL jobs in USA ( manual or mental ) will get replaced by ROBOTS

India's Policy Makers will do well to realize that a ROBOT in a USA factory or office , will do the job cheaper than a human in India who is getting ONE-TENTH the wages of a US worker ! And do it more precisely without demanding a salary rise or going on a strike !

This is the reason behind manufacturers in today's DEVELOPED / HIGH WAGE countries rushing into automation and Artificial Intelligence ( AI )

So , a lower Wage / Salary in India , will cease to be our advantage , before long


01  Oct  2016

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs