Hi Friends,

Even as I launch this today ( my 80th Birthday ), I realize that there is yet so much to say and do. There is just no time to look back, no time to wonder,"Will anyone read these pages?"

With regards,
Hemen Parekh
27 June 2013

Now as I approach my 90th birthday ( 27 June 2023 ) , I invite you to visit my Digital Avatar ( www.hemenparekh.ai ) – and continue chatting with me , even when I am no more here physically

Wednesday, 24 November 2021

Mumbai Desalination Plant ( Proposed ) : a White Elephant ?

 


Context :

BMC sets the ball rolling for first desalination plant    /   HT   /   15 Nov 2021

Extract :

The Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) has set the ball rolling for the construction of the city’s first desalination plant, which will convert sea water to drinking water.

The civic body has decided to appoint consultants for vetting of designs for the 200 million litres per day (MLD) desalination plant in the western suburbs.

Construction should start next year and the plant is expected to be functional in the next 4 years. The BMC anticipates the construction cost to be 18,000 crore.

===================================================

MY  TAKE  :

A news report which appeared in Times of India, on 29 June 2021 ( approx. 5 months back ) , mentioned that this plant would cost Rs 1600 Crore

(  BMC, Israeli co ink pact for Maharashtra’s first desalination plant  /  TOI  /  29 June 2021 )

 

Based on that report, I had calculated the cost of desalinated water as follows :

( source :   With a pinch of Salt ?    /  29 June 2021 )

How much will this cost to produce 1,000 litres of water ?

 My guess :

       Ø  Capital Cost……………………….. Rs  1,600 crore

  Running Cost

      Ø  Interest @ 15 %...........................................................  Rs   240  Cr

      Ø  Depreciation @ 10 %.....................................................  Rs   160  Cr

      Ø  Operating Expenses @ 20 % ( Manpower+Electricity+OH )… Rs   320  CR

  TOTAL ……………………………………………………………………………………………Rs  720  Cr

Assuming 360 working days ( to round-up ), this works out to…Rs  2  Cr / day ( = Rs 20,000,000 )

To produce 200 MLD = 200,000,000 litre per day

Works out to Rs 20 / 200 litre ( Rs 100 / 1,000 litre, as against Rs 18 / 1000 litre reported in the news !

 

Now, if the estimated cost goes up:

#   from  Rs  1600 Crore

#   to      Rs  18,000 Crore

Then per litre cost would go up by 11 TIMES !

That means, the revised cost would be Rs 1100 for 1000 litre

Rs 1.1 / litre !

Going by past records ( of project executions ), you can safely assume that instead of :

#  4 years, completion would take 8 years

#  Rs 18,000 Cr, cost would go up to Rs 36,000 Cr

So, Mumbai-ites would get desalinated water at Rs 2.2 / litre  ( more likely, Rs 3.0  / litre )

As against this, a 20 Litre Mineral Water jar ( of BHOOMI brand ) sells for Rs 30 ( ie ; Rs 1.5 / litre )

Elephants don’t get any whiter !

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Dear Shri Uddhav Thackerayji,


I urge you scrap this project and get experts to evaluate alternate ( technology ) solutions listed below


With regards,

Hemen Parekh  /  hcp@RecruitGuru.com / 25 Nov 2021

 

 

RELATED  READINGS :

New Device Produces Water From Thin Air – No Electricity Required 

Atmospheric water generator

 A candid admission ? ………………………………………………..[ 12 July 2019 ]

Water above our heads……………………………………………[ 29 Mar 2019 ]

 Making Water from Air ? …………………………………………[ 26 Oct 2018 ]

Water  Mutiny  of  2020……………………………………………..[ 17 June 2018 ]

Water Wars Are Looming !..............................................................[ 09 June 2018 ]

Writing  is  on  the  Wall …………………………………………….[ 08 May 2018 ]

Replicating   Nature  ?............................................[ 23 Mar 2018 ]

Deja Vu ? #Latur #Marathwada #Waterwar…………..[ 28 Feb 2018 ]

 Water Water Everywhere ? Even in Latur ?............[ 15 Apr 2017 ]

Not a straightforward Answer ! …………………………………[ 03 Mar 2017 ]

 Water Wars ?  ………………………………………………………….....[ 08  Apr 2016 ]

 

 And the MOST  IMPORTANT  READING :


The Biggest , FREE , Desalination Plant : Sun + Sea………[ 09 July 2019 ]

 

 


 

 

 

Tuesday, 23 November 2021

A Wishful Thinking ? No, already here !

 


 

Context :

My “ Appy “  Diwwali   /  Business Line  /  18 Nov  2021

( Author : Manasi Phadke   /  manasi.phadke@gmail.com )

 

Extract :

So, here’s a start-up idea. One can’t do away with the information being put out, but one can weave it into the app! Apps need to give online shopping a desi haggle-touch !

Allow the shopper to put in a price that they are getting elsewhere and get the virtual shopkeeper to haggle. Shopper puts in a quote of ₹1,500 for the aforementioned handbag.

App says Dusre app pe jao  !

This quality is only available at ₹2,500 !

’ Well, you are now entering active price discovery. Shopper puts in a quote for ₹1,800. App has to say the golden words, Teri bhi nahi, meri bhi nahi ! 

Final price ₹2,150 !  ’ Please get me an app which ‘app’reciates how Indians shop  !

MY  TAKE  :

Ø  A Matter of Time …………………………………………[ 03 Jan 2017 ]

Extact :

       All bank accounts of a person ( in different banks ) become inter- operable / fungible, through seamless interlinking, using Aadhar / UPI Interface in a Mobile Wallet. No need to " select " a particular bank name

All transactions using a Mobile Wallet, automatically entered in BLOCK- CHAIN database commonly shared by ALL banks

         

      Wallet based algorithm will move funds across different bank accounts for best yield, constantly searching for best interest rates offered by banks on Fixed Deposits

This will happen automatically, much like algorithm-based share trading, taking advantage of price differences in two bourses located 300 km apart ( in one thousandths of a second ! )

No rocket science here considering availability of " BEST PRICE " apps for thousands of goods and services

And since computing power of mobiles are doubling every 18 months ( Moore's Law ), nothing will stop algo-trading through a Mobile Wallet  as well ( Demat A/C on Wallet ? )

       Of course, future Mobile Wallets will subsume within itself, ALL AUTOMATIC PAYMENT APPS, using which ( individually ), currently I make following digital payments :

 

   #    Property Taxes / Locker Fees / Housing Society Charges / MTNL bill

   #    Mahanagar Gas/Tata Power/YOU broadband/Vodafone/TATA Sky TV etc


  I expect, a future Mobile Wallet to take care of ALL my periodic duesautomatically

 

Ø  BHIM, the Impersonator ? ………………………………[ 17 June 2017 ]

Extact :

 

After reading the following news report ( Pune Mirror / 16 June ) , if you were to imagine an avatar of BHIM which starts “ bargaining / negotiating “ with the seller of a Saree / ladies’ dress , for a better price , you would not be far off !

 

 Can you guess how insanely popular that avatar of BHIM could become among Indians who love to bargain for each and every product or service ?

 

If NPCI ( National Payment Corporation of India ) , the primary developer / promoter of BHIM were to come up with such an avatar , it would obsolete ALL other mobile payment wallets !

 

Facebook bots can now negotiate , compromise “

 

 Bots will be able to engage in start-to-finish negotiations with people while arriving at common decisions or outcomes

 

Facebook’s artificial intelligence researchers announced that they had broken new ground by giving automated programs or “ bots ” the ability to negotiate and make compromises.

 

The new technology pushes forward the ability to create bots “that can reason, converse and negotiate, all key steps in building a personalised digital assistant,” said researchers Mike Lewis and Dhruv Batra in a blog post.


Up to now, most bots or chat-bots have had only the ability to hold short conversations and perform simple tasks like booking a restaurant table, according to the researchers.


But in the latest code developed by Facebook, bots will be able to dialogue and “ to engage in start-to-finish negotiations with other bots or people while arriving at common decisions or outcomes,” they wrote.


Facebook’s Artificial Intelligence Researchers (FAIR) team gave bots this ability by estimating the “value” of an item and inferring how much that is worth to each party.

 “FAIR researchers created many such negotiation scenarios, always ensuring that it is impossible for both agents to get the best deal simultaneously,” Lewis and Batra said.


“Furthermore, walking away from the negotiation (or not agreeing on a deal after 10 rounds of dialogue) resulted in 0 points for both agents. Simply put, negotiation is essential, and good negotiation results in better performance.”


But the bots can also find ways to be sneaky.

In some cases, bots “ initially feigned interest in a valueless item, only to later ‘compromise’ by conceding it – an effective negotiating tactic that people use regularly,” the researchers said.


This behaviour was not programmed by the researchers “but was discovered by the bot as a method for trying to achieve its goals,” they said.

 

WOW  !

 

How long before these  BOTS  beat humans at “ negotiating to win “ ?

 

And beat other BOTS or other humans , who too are negotiating with the same human for a favourable outcome ?

 

As in case of dozens of jobseekers being interviewed by a recruiter

 

Not inconceivable if someone comes up with a CANDIDATE BOT ( a software agent of the jobseekers ) , which gets pitted against a RECRUITER BOT ( a software agent of the employers )

 

===================================================

Here is what is already here :


[ A ]


JM FINANCIAL TO LAUNCH APP FOR RETAIL INVESTORS TO TRADE IN BONDS  / 18 Nov 2021

Extract :

Bondskart platform will also advise on investment decisions, assessing creditworthiness, current trends and options available in market on a regular basis, officials said.


An individual can buy or sell bonds through that app where JM’s dedicated institutional fixed income team along with a tech team of about a dozen people will ensure liquidity and smooth operations.


“Senior citizens and seasoned retail investors require steady interest income, which hit a record low these years,” said Ajay Manglunia, managing director (ajaymanglunia@jmfl.com ) – institutional fixed income at JM Financial.


 “ Through this app, they will get a platform to play over fixed income market and choose out of a curated portfolio of securities.”

 

[ B ]

Coutloot launches auto bargain feature on its platform  /  Eco Times /  23 Nov 2021

Extract :


Coutloot, India's social commerce platform built on the lines of Taobao, launched a feature that allows , both buyers and sellers to bargain automatically


The “ Automatic Bargain “ feature provides the buyer with a pre-set bargain price within a chat box


The buyer then can select and quote a favourable price, which the buyer thinks is fair for the product


Coutloot has brought offline retail sellers and street vendors to sell online for the first time in their lives and made it possible for buyers to live-bargain with the seller without having to wait for the seller to be online


“ Our Auto-Bargain feature makes a deal quickly between the buyer-seller instantly “ , said Jasmeet Thind. Founder Coutloot , in a statement [ thind.jasmeet@gmail.com / Jasmeet@coutloot.com ]


So, while Coutloot helps these sellers get the best price for the local products , shoppers can uy products within their budget


Taking the Chat and Bargaining feature a step forward, Coutloot has also recently rolled out a chat feature in 12 different Indian languages that have broken the language barrier between the sellers and buyers, helping bring the smallest and most remote sellers to a big platform


Founded by Jasmeet Thind and Mahima Kaul  [  mahima@coutloot.com ],

 Coutloot is a platform that allows buyers and sellers to bargain while shopping


It helps sellers list non-MRP unbranded local market products across Fashion, Electronics, Home Décor, Sports, and other boxed categories that make up 75 % of India’s retail sector at present

 


Related Readings :

www.RoboRecruiter.ai

Will Chatbots take away Jobs ? ………………………………………[ 24 June 2017 ]

 

Recruiters threatened by AI ?.................................... [ 31 Mar 2018 ]

 


Dear Shri Ashwini Vaishnawji – Shri Rajeev Chandrasekharji – Shri Piyush Goyalji  :

 

In today’s Cabinet Meeting, you will be approving the final drafts of DATA PROTECTION BILL and CRYPTO CURRENCY BILL


What I have envisaged – and described above – is an example of the rate at which technology is moving


While approving the drafts, you may want to start working on the AMENDMENTS !


With regards,

Hemen Parekh  /  hcp@RecruitGuru.com  /  24 Nov 2021

 

       

 

 

 

Mukesh – and his Maya-Jaal

 


 

( with grateful ack to “ K Lal and his Maya-Jaal “ )


Context :

·         RIL looks to tap kirana stores  /  Hindustan Times (Noida)  / 23 Nov 2021

 

For eight straight days, household goods salesman Vipresh Shah has failed to sell a single pack of Dettol soap to the storekeepers who have been buying from him ever since he took over his family business as a teenager, 14 years ago.

 

The 31-year-old said he lost $2,000 of his own money as he discounted products to match prices on Jiomart, the app rolled out by Reliance chairman Mukesh Ambani in his drive to revolutionise retail in India.

 

Up and down India, the mom and pop stores that account for four-fifths of a near-$900 billion retail market, are increasingly turning to Jiomart to stock up on foreign and domestic brands.

 

Just as Ambani has disrupted the country’s telecoms industry, the tycoon is intent on shaking up retail distribution, taking on US e-commerce giants like Amazon and Walmart Inc.

 

The country has around 450,000 traditional distributors, who have legions of salespeople to service every corner of the vast nation, including 600,000 villages. They typically earn a margin of 3-5% on product prices and mostly take orders physically once a week, making deliveries to retailers within a couple of days.

 

But Reliance’s model throws a wrench in that supply chain: The kiranas, can order goods on Jiomart Partner with deliveries promised within 24 hours. Reliance also offers training on ordering, credit facilities and free product samples for affiliated kiranas’ customers.

 

That means hundreds of thousands of salesmen representing consumer giants like Reckitt, Unilever and Colgate-Palmolive, face an existential threat to their business, according to interviews with salespeople, 20 distributors and a trader group with members across India.

 

Many of the distributors said they have slashed their workforce or vehicle fleet, seeing their sales from door-to-door agents drop 20-25% in the last year as shopkeepers partner with Reliance.


 

MY  TAKE :


It seems like a case of :

#  Distributors disrupted / decimated

#  Intermediaries eliminated

#  Middlemen marginalized

#  Beginning of the End  

#  Playing out of the following script that I wrote 3 years ago :


 MA = DA x 4,000,000 ?  ……………….[ 17 July 2018 ]

 

Extract :

If you join Reliance Eco System, here is what it will do for you :

 

===================================================

SALES :

 

All of your merchandize will be available for selection / ordering on our ONLINE web portal 

 

This online presence of your merchandize will expand / extend your " reach " to thousands of consumers in your neighbourhood

 

You will need to only focus on OFFLINE ( across-the-counter ) sales to consumers who walk into your store

 

For OFFLINE sales , we will install in your stores , all the necessary Computers / POS terminals / Routers / Internet Connections / Mobile Wallet Payment systems and an end-to-end , RETAIL MANAGEMENT software 

 

All of your OFFLINE sales data will get transferred to our Central Server

 

===================================================

SUPPLY  :



We will deliver to your store , all merchandize on " Consignment " basis



This means , you do NOT need to pay us for what we deliver to you store !



Till sold, all goods in your store will be our " stock "



This way, you do NOT need any " Working Capital " as far as your stocks are concerned 



We will also tie-up with the manufacturers



You don't need to have any interaction / dealing with the manufacturers



===================================================

INVENTORY  :



On a continuous basis , our web server will keep a track of each and every item of merchandize sold from your stores



Our Server will calculate , your " Stock Movement



Based on this data, our Server will compute / set for each item :



#   Minimum Stock Level



#   Alarm Stock Level



#   Stock Re-Order Level



#   Re-Order Quantity ( Minimum Batch Size ) 



Based on this logic , our Server will instruct the relevant " Merchandize Manufacturers " ( or their dealers / stockists ) , to deliver the stipulated " Re-Order Quantities " to your stores



A " Re-Order Instruction intimation ", will get delivered to your computer



Upon arrival, you will need to update the data



From time to time , our Software will also figure out your current stocks of " Extremely Slow Moving " and " Obsolete / Expired " items , and arrange for " Return Delivery " , which you will need to enter in your database



===================================================

DELIVERY  :



Not only we will deliver the merchandize to your store , but we will also pick up " Ordered Items " ( for ONLINE orders only ) , from your store and deliver the same to your customers  !



Initially we will employ manual " Delivery Persons " for this but , before long , we will deploy a fleet of autonomous DRONES for this purpose 



This fleet will cover " Kirana Stores " and " Online Customers " , located in pre-designated areas , covering 4 sq km ( 2 km x 2 km )



We are in talk with https://what3words.com/toddler.geologist.animated , to enable precise delivery through your 10th floor window  !



These drones will get their " Delivery Instructions " directly from our Web Server , for all ONLINE orders



When these drones arrive at your Store to pick up the items ( to be delivered ) , they will transfer ( Blue Tooth / NFC ) and display on your Computer screen , following data :



#  Online Order Number / time / date



#  Items covered with description / value of each



#  Customer Name / Address 



#  Mode of Online Payment / Bank Details 

 

#  Your online account CREDIT details , giving,



     ( Sales Value ) - ( Purchase Price )  



    " Purchase Price " of goods in your stock will be based on FIFO method



===================================================

FINANCE  :



As explained earlier , you will have a bare minimum need for " Working Capital " , since all of your stock will be on " Consignment " basis

We will collect the "
ONLINE  PAYMENTS " directly from the customers and " Credit " the same to your " online sales account " with us

Against same account , we will "
Debit " the " purchase price " ( price at which you purchase the merchandize from Reliance ) of the goods sold

Our server will also take care of all GST payments and filing of
GST returns

As far as OFFLINE sales is concerned , all the data captured through POS terminal will get transferred to our Central Server

===================================================

MARKETING  :

Not only will we carry out all marketing for your ONLINE sales , we will help you with your OFFLINE marketing , through introduction of the following technology-enhanced features :

#   Arranging a better
display of merchandize on your shelves / re-arranging of

     shelves


#  Introducing
Augmented Reality ( AR ) for clothes / fashion goods in " Trial

    Rooms " for giving the customers , an experience of " touch - feel - looks "

    

#   Introducing
Robots to answer customer inquiries

#   Eliminating " Check Out Counters " , based on " Payments through
Bio-metric

    Recognition " of customers

#   Embedding
RFID sensors in each item of merchandize and RFID readers

     embedded in Shopping Carts

#   Improving your
window display thru rotation

#   Introducing
music

#  Eventually replacing " Physical " merchandize with " Holographic Display " of

    merchandize on your store  shelves !

     

===================================================

Since Reliance does not OWN any of these ( 5 million ? ) Kirana Stores, it is unlikely to introduce Amazon-like cashier-less automatic check-out


However, to know what kind of a VANISHING ACT, this Maya-Jaal will do, read :


Birth of a Black hole ? ………………………[ 18 Jan 2021 ]

 

Extract :

WHAT DATA WILL NOT BE ABLE TO ESCAPE THIS BLACK HOLE ?

STAGE  1

To begin with, your entire PURCHASE HISTORY of a life-time, comprising :

       WHAT you purchased - WHEN – from WHOM – at WHAT PRICE – HOW much qty., – how PAID for

 STAGE 2

Next, it will compile data about each unique item that you ever purchased – and some more :

       Ø  Frequency of Purchase

       Ø  Package Size

       Ø  Brands ordered

       Ø  Mode of Delivery

       Ø  Mobile Number ( and, may be all of your CONTACT DATA – to entice your

           friends / family )

       Ø  Your MONTHLY CONSUMPTION RATE for each item ( and by using AI, size of

           your family )

       Ø  Whether you are single or married (does not require sophisticated software )

       Ø  If married, number – and age – of your children

       Ø  Your bank ( - and your bank balance ? You bet ! )

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

With regards,

Hemen Parekh / hcp@RecruitGuru.com / 24 Nov 2021

 

Related Readings :

Weave a Wondrous World [ W3 ]  

Bypass E : Go from D to F 

Jio Hubs : Entrepreneurs Apply  

 Reliance : Retailing - Detailing –Gobbling……………. [ 17 Aug 2021 ]

 

Reliance Retail : a Guess comes Good ……………………….[ 31 July 2021 ]

 

CC :

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 shop@jio.com

 enterprisecare@jio.com

 jiofibercare@jio.com

 mukesh.ambani@ril.com

  jyoti.jain@ril.com

  info@ril.com