Disruption : The Inevitable

Yesterday’s Economic Times carried following news :

Govt may use “ Light – Touch “ to give public Wi Fi a big push

May woo unlicensed entities by asking them not to share revenue

Extract :

Telcos are united, for once, in opposition to the plan on the grounds that the move would disrupt a  level-playing field  and violate current law.

The older telcos are typically ranged against new entrant Reliance Jio Infocomm.

The tussle comes as the government, at its highest levels, is keen on making public WiFi an election plank as an extension of Digital India and a symbol of its success, say industry insiders. 

To that end, DoT is considering ways to make the programme attractive for all stakeholders in a bid to rapidly roll out hotspots--500,000 across the country by the end of 2018, with at least one in every village in India. 

I recollect that around 1972 , Central Govt ( under Indira Gandhi ) erected / commissioned 2,000 TV transmission towers , all over India, within one year

If I am not mistaken, looming general election was the motivating force at that time too

That single act ( whatever the motive ) , gave rise to TV industry as we know today

But soon came Cable TV and DTH TV and made those towers “ obsolete “

But that disruption gradually happened over next 30 years

In 2018 , things move fast

I would not be surprised if those 500,000 Wi-Fi Hot Spots get “ obsolete “ within the next 5 years !

By Li-Fi

Content  “ streaming “ down ( or even up / sideways ) using ordinary LED bulbs in each and every home ( and from each and every Street Lamp ? ) at 10 Gbps

What will this do to 1 Gbps  JioGigaFibre announced by Reliance just 3 days back ?

Short answer  :  Disrupt

“ What / Who”  else is in the process of getting “ disrupted “ or about to get disrupted – even if difficult to perceive as such  ?

( Current Industry )   getting disrupted by   ( New Comers )

*    Coal based Power Plants      >  Solar  Power  Plants

*    Banking Industry                >  FinTech Mobile Apps

*    Airlines  / Railways             >  Hyperloops   >   Holo-portation

*    Petrol –Diesel Cars             >  Electric Cars

*    Paper-based Newspapers    >  Walls of homes

*    Electric Transmission Lines  >  Roof Top Solar Panels

*    Mobile Phones                    >  Wear-ables  ( tattoos – glasses – watches etc )

*    Humans Effort                    >  Robots

*   Supply Chain  Delivery         >  Drones

*   Car  Ownership                    >  Autonomous  Ride Sharing

*   Manual Stock Trading           >  Algorithm-based trading 

     

*   Black  Money                       >  Currency notes embedded with RFID sensors 

*   Fiat based Currencies           >  Crypto Currencies 

*   Lithium-ion Car Batteries      >  Metal Air ( Alu ) Batteries   

*   Job Portals                           >   Google  Job  Search 

*   Battery Charging Stations     >   Piezo-Electric Generating roads 

*   Data Protection Law ( Draft )>    Privacy is Dead

*   Construction Industry          >     3 D Printed Houses

*   Telecom / ISPs                    >     Powerline Broadband  with  Li  Fi 

But Telecom Operators and ISPs ( Internet Service Providers )  are crying “ foul “  !

They are saying :

“ Public Wi Fi is a threat to security and lead to a non-level playing field between licensed and unlicensed players  “

If they have their way , they would want to take me back 60 years when I needed two “ Licenses “  to own / operate two radios in my home and renew those licenses every year by standing in a long queue at a post office for paying Rs 5 / 10 , as annual renewal fee !

These days, I don’t need a licence , either for my radio or my TV , but I need to provide a lot of info about myself to the Mobile Service Provider, in the form of KYC ( Know Your Customer ) for owning a Mobile Phone

But what happens when 10,000 items in my home ( from door handles  to every ball pen to every piece of currency note in my home ), gets a IP V 6.0 internet connection ( there will be 50,000 trillions available per person )  ?

Each of those items will form a part of Internet of Things [ IoT ] and will be capable of transmitting CONTENT ( voice – data – images ) , all over the World

And they won’t need ANY LICENSE from anybody !

What will that do to the Telecom / ISP  ?

Shri Rajan Mathew ( Director General – COAI ) / Shri Rajesh Chharia ( President – Internet Service Providers Association of India ) may want to alert their member companies to watch out for the “ Shape of Things to Come “

Reference :

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2016/09/what-would-drivers-do.html

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/06/will-chatbots-take-away-jobs.html

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/08/an-app-for-everything.html

09  July  2018

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

Could Hyperloops be better ?

Jury is out !

Sure Hyperloop tansport system can remove cars from the roads and reduce air pollution

But Hyperloops will need huge amount of electricity to

 ,

*  Create partial vacuum inside those huge tubes ( in order to reduce air friction )

*  Create Magnetism in rails ( MegLev ) to propel those pods along at 300 MPH

If this electricity is going to come from coal-based power plants, things won’t improve !

India is “ planning “ as many as 5 Hyperloop systems

5 Proposed Route for Hyperloop in India 

http://www.walkthroughindia.com/offbeat/5-proposed-route-hyperloop-india/

Extract :

In February, Branson signed a preliminary agreement in Mumbai for a broad hyperloop framework and mooted a Mumbai-Pune system that would shrink travel time to 25 minutes and save about three hours.

The first Indian commercial hyperloop between the two cities is targeted to roll by 2025, two years after India aims to complete its maiden bullet train project linking the commercial hubs of Mumbai and Ahmedabad. 


 
An economy seat on a flight from Pune to Mumbai a week from now would cost about 10,000 rupees ($150), while the first-class train fare for the 90-kilometer (56-mile) trip is about 1,165 rupees. 

These are very ambitious projects , considering that , as of today , there is not a single Hyperloop system which is operational anywhere in the entire world !

Not even the proposed “ underground “ Hyperloop of Elon Musk’s Boring Company which is still “ experimenting “ with a TRIAL STRETCH in California

But such BOLD / OUT of the BOX thinking is what we desperately need , considering that our entire TRANSPORT system has become out-dated

Constructing highways with embedded Solar Panels or with INDUCTIVE charging of passing Electric Vehicles , is an idea which falls in the same league as Hyperloops

Except that , in this technological innovation , there has been far more “ real life “ experimentation and several “ experimental “ highway stretches , around the World

Find one example at :

 https://medium.com/@olivermitchell/new-battery-technology-is-accelerating-autonomy-and-saving-the-environment-bd37a89c972

In an earlier blog , I had suggested that the Maharashtra Government consider this technology for its proposed 705 km long Mumbai-Pune Super Highway

This project has been criticized by its opponents by saying :

“  It is a criminal waste of  Rs 46,000 crore , in order to reduce Mumbai-Nagpur travel distance by a mere 26 km as compared with today’s available route “

For more about likely  “ fate “ of Mumbai – Nagpur Super Highway  , read :

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2018/07/mumbai-nagpur-super-highway.html

On top of that , Government plans to charge a toll of Rs 2.5 per km for cars

That is , Rs 1,762 / - for 705 Km

But if this Mumbai – Nagpur project authority were to pay to the car owner , Rs 1,762 per trip by way of a “ REVERSE TOLL “ , then what happens ? 

Read  :

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2017/05/a-reverse-toll-possible.html

07  July  2018

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

  

Reliance Juggernaut Rolls !

Yesterday , in its 41^st AGM , Reliance Industries Chairman , Shri Mukesh Ambani said :

“  As Reliance transitions to become a technology platform company, we see our biggest

   growth opportunity in creating a hybrid , online – to – offline new commerce platform

   

   We shall create this by integrating and synergizing  the power of Reliance Retail’s

   physical market place with the fabulous strengths of Jio’s digital infrastructure and

   services

  

  …. We will enable them to do everything that large enterprises and large e-commerce

    players are able to do .

    Hence we will integrate the physical and digital market places in a uniquely

    collaborative Bharat – India Jodo enterprise “

About a year back , here is what I envisaged re morphing of Reliance :

What Business Are You In ?  [  22  July  2017  ]

----------------------------------------------------------

“ It is high time for the giants of  Telecom Industry  to ask of themselves :

WHAT  BUSINESS  ARE  WE  IN  ?

Are we in the business of  “ MOBILE  TELEPHONY “  or are we in the business of  “ MOBILE  ENTERTAINMENT “ ?

Then , after 5 years , what business should we be in ?

Should we continue to remain in “ MOBILE  ENTERTAINMENT “ or should we consider ourselves in the business of “ MOBILE  SOLUTIONS “  for ANY / EVERY problem faced by a user ?

And should we continue our “ Backward  Integration “  into the  ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY  or should we integrate with Start Ups in  HEALTH-CARE  /  EDUCATION  /  EMPLOYMENT  ?

The writing is on the Wall – for professional executives who can read ! “

Since I wrote this last July , Airtel – Idea – Vodafone have been making huge losses and have lost , not only “ Market Share “ but also a great deal of “ Market Cap “ as well

It is still not too late for them to ask :

What business are we in ?

06  July  2018

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs

E Commerce Definition : a Space Ship ?

I will repeat what I have said many times earlier

As long as our imagination remains confined to “ SHIP “ as a mode of traversing huge “ DISTANCES “ , we will never manage to go very far into the intergalactic “ SPACE “

Concept of a “ SHIP “ is good enough for sailing on “ OCEANS “ girdling our earth but totally inadequate for SPACE

We will conquer the SPACE only when we stop thinking in terms of a SHIP and start thinking in the terms of 4^th dimension , called TIME

Why this long prologue ?

For over 2 years , a Committee of Govt Secretaries has been trying to come up with a definition of :

E  COMMERCE

Here is today’s news :

Ecomm Subgroup suggests FDI in Inventory Model

Extract :

The policy is expected to set a new definition for ecommerce that will pin greater liability and responsibility on online retailers………….

A group of nine secretaries led by commerce secretary Rita Teaotia will meet on Friday to discuss data localisation, FDI in inventory-based online retail, consumer protection and emerging technologies as India seeks to finalise an ecommerce policy by year-end.

 

It suggested this for  business-to consumer ecommerce models  ,

*   with Indian entrepreneurship and control,

*   with stipulations such as less than 51% stake for a single foreign entity as the

     ultimate beneficiary owner (UBO),

*   100% selling of

*   made-in-India goods, and the

*   founder/promoter to be a resident of India. 

“ This would require defining made-in-India products and their accreditation by a competent authority,” the subgroup submitted. 

What a short-sightedness  !

If you want to know why this “ Definition “ of E Commerce is bound to fail , read :

E - Commerce is Easy Commerce !  [  15  Nov  2015  ]

One Day , Everything will Sell Online !  [ 29 March  2016  ]

Missing the Woods for the Tree ?  [  12  Aug  2016  ]

3 Laws of E – Commerce [  04 Dec  2017  ]

ECommerce : Broad Policy / Elements  [  14  Mar  2018  ]

 

And , as far as defining what is “ Made in India “ is concerned , I believe , government goes by “ Percentage of Value Addition “ locally

 

But , this is a very difficult and time-consuming exercise

 

Even when possible, its result holds good for a very short period in a dynamic situation

 

A manufactured “ local product “ could have hundreds of components ( both, local and imported )

 

And those “ local components “ could have “ imported “ raw materials or intermediates

 

These days , a product could be,

 

*  patented in one country ( concept )

*  designed in another country

*  developed ( detail manufacturing drawings  ) in another country

*  components made all over the World

*  Sub-Assemblies ( of those components ) carried out in another country

*  Final Assembly done in another country

*  Packaging done in another country

*  Offered for sale on ONLINE e-commerce portals in another country

*  Marketed by agencies located all over the World

*  Delivered using manpower / drones / supply chains of several countries

*  Financed by funds from all over the world

 

At which “ Level  “ of Value Addition , does a product become “ local “ ?

And if I download a " Product Drawings / Design " over the internet and then " 3D Print " it in my garage ( using " imported " resins ) , then is that a " local " product ?

 

 

06  July  2018

www.hemenparekh.in / blogs