Dear Shri Suresh Prabhuji,
Speaking
at CILT Expo 2018 , you said :
“We
are preparing an INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PLAN and
also a portal to make logistics efficient and cost – effective in the country“
And
on last Monday , PM Shri Modiji launched a GRAND
CHALLENGE to further improve India’s position in the World Bank’s EASE OF DOING
BUSINESS ranking to the top 50 by using cutting edge technology [ Internet
of Things – Artificial Intelligence – Big Data Analytics – Block Chain ] , to
reform government processes
Please
allow me to offer following suggestion which will meet both these objectives
A
: PROBLEM STATEMENT
Transport is getting to be a big problem
world-wide
By 2018 , total number of cars / buses /
trucks in the world was approx. 1.4 Billion
By 2036 , this is expected to go up to
2.8 Billion ( doubling in 20 years )
I have not bothered to dig up figures
for bicycles - 2 / 3 Wheeler – Tractors etc
In short travelling / transporting is
getting to be a huge headache
And emission pollution is killing millions
All over the world , experts and
authorities are coming up with a number of suggestions to solve this problem
To me, these attempts seem disparate /
loose / uncoordinated / tangential
I have yet to come across a holistic /
all-encompassing / multi-dimensional solution
Following is my suggestion for an INTEGRATED LOGISTICS
PLAN [ ILP ]
B
: GUIDING PRINCIPLES / GOALS of ILP
·
Minimize
all kinds of transport
o Minimize:
Private transport / People travel / Polluting transport
o Maximize:
Public transport / Non-polluting transport / Video-Conferencing
o Discourage:
Land-based transport / “Within City “transport / “Privately Owned transport
o Encourage:
Air based transport / Water based transport / “Public owned “Transport / Shared
transport / Night – time transport
o Raise: “ Ease of Doing Business “ rank to under 50
o Lower: “ Cost of logistics “ from current 14 % of GDP to 6 % of GDP
C: ROAD-MAP TO ACHIEVE THESE OBJECTIVES
o Levying
of TRANS-TAX on all vehicles from birth to death of a vehicle ( irrespective of
change in ownership through gifting / selling )
o TRANS-TAX
will get collected automatically and for each hour of a vehicle’s life
o In
this collection process , there will be NO HUMAN INTERVENTION whatsoever
o Amount
of TRANS-TAX to be collected every hour , will depend on it’s TRANSCORE
o A
vehicle’s TRANSCORE will be based on its total HQ [ Harm Quotient ] for that
hour
o Higher
the total HQ [ TRANSCORE ] , higher the TRANS-TAX ( directly proportional )
o Logic
: To lower their TRANS-TAX liability , people will opt for vehicles and driving
conditions which generate a low TRANSCORE
o TRANS-TAX
will replace all other vehicle-related taxes ( eg : Registration tax / Road Tax
etc ) , other than the GST payable by buyer at time of purchase of vehicle
o TRANS-TAX
will be uniform throughout India but credited to the State in which vehicle is,
at each hour of its life
o TRANS-TAX
will be computed as per following HQ
MATRIX . For exact mechanism , look up para on TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM below
o This
is a conceptual frame work and transport experts may debate and come up with a
different set of “ Factors “ / “ Weightages “ / “ Rating Scales “
o Without
doubt , all of these will differ from country to country and from time to time
, within the same country
D:
LOGIC FOR DETERMINING
“HARM QUOTIENT"
HQ [ Harm Quotient]
Matrix
Rating Scale
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Worst (5)
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Bad (4)
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Fair (3)
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Good (2)
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Best (1)
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Factor
/
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Weightage
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Energy
Source /
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15
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Diesel
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Petrol
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Hybrid
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Li-ion Battery
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Solar Roof Car
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Ownership
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10
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Private
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Leased
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Short hire / Ride-share
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Municipality
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Government
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Purpose
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5
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Carry people
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Carry Goods
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Industrial Use
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Age
of Vehicle
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5
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10 + years
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8 – 10 years
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6 - 8 years
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4 - 6 years
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< 4 years
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Type
of Vehicle
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5
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Car
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Scooter
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Quadricycle / Rickshaw
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Bus
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Train / Metro/ Boat
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Capacity
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5
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1 person
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2 persons
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3 - 4 persons
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5 - 50 persons
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50 +
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Space
Used
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5
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City Roads
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City Metro
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Highways
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Train tracks
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Inland waterways
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Time
when used
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5
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8am -10am
5pm -7pm
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10am -12noon
7pm - 9pm
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12noon - 5pm
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9pm -12midnight
|
12midnight -8am
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Where
used
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20
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Within City
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Outside City
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State
of Use
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20
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In Motion
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Parked
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If
Parked-where
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10
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On Public Road
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In public parking lot
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In Private Garage
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E : ILLUSTRATION OF THE COMPUTATION OF HQ
Factor
: Energy Source
Diesel /
Petrol / Hybrid / Li-ion Battery Powered / Powered by Solar Roof Top
Factor Rating : 5 (Worst) / 4
/ 3 (Fair) / 2 (Good) / 1 (Best)
Factor Weightage : 15
Select
: Diesel
HQ (Harm
Quotient ) = Rating x Weightage
= 5 x 15 = 75
Factor
: Ownership
Private
/ Leased / Short hire - Ride Share
/ Municipality / Government
Factor
Rating : 5 ( worst ) / 4 / 3 (
Fair ) /
2 ( Good )
/ 1 ( Best )
Factor Weightage : 10
Select
: Private
HQ = Rating x
Weightage = 5 x 10 = 50
Factor :
Purpose
Carry People /
Carry Goods /
Industrial Use
Factor Rating
: People (Worst - 5
) / Goods ( Fair ) / Ind Use ( Best - 1 )
Factor Weightage
: 5
Select : People
HQ : Rating
x weightage = 5 x 5 = 25
Factor
: Age of Vehicle
10
+ years / 8 – 10 years / 6 - 8 years
/ 4 - 6 years / <
4 years
Factor
Rating : 5 ( Worst
)
/ 4 / 3 / 2 /
1 ( Best )
Factor
Weightage : 5
Select :
10 + years
HQ :
Rating x Weightage = 5 x 5 = 25
Factor :
Type of Vehicle
Car
/ Scooter / Rickshaw /
Bus / Train – Metro - Boat
Factor
Rating : 5 ( Worst ) / 4 /
3 ( Fair )
/ 2 ( Good
) /1 ( Best )
Factor Weightage
: 5
Select : Car
HQ : Rating
x weightage = 5
x 5 = 25
Factor :
Capacity
1
person ( Worst ) / 2 persons / 3-4 persons / 5-50 persons
/ 50 + persons (Best
)
Factor
Rating : 5 ( Worst )
/ 4 / 3 ( Fair ) / 2 / 1 (
Best )
Factor
Weightage :
Select : 3 – 4 persons
HQ : Rating
x Weightage = 3 x 5 = 15
Factor :
Space Used
City
Roads / City Metro / Highways
/ Train tracks / Inland
waterways
Factor Rating :
5
( Worst ) / 4 / 3 / 2 /
1 ( Best )
Factor
Weightage : 5
Select : City Roads
HQ : Rating
x Weightage = 5 x 5 = 25
Factor :
Time of use
Worst ( 5 ) >
8 am – 10 am and 5 pm – 7 pm
Bad ( 4 ) > 10 am – 12 noon and 7 pm – 9 pm
Fair ( 3 ) > 12 noon - 5 pm
Good ( 2 ) > 9 pm – 12 midnight
Best ( 1 ) > 12 midnight - 8 am
Factor Weightage : 5
Select : 8am – 10 am
HQ : Rating x Weightage = 5x5 =25
|
Factor :
Where Used
Within city limits (
Worst )
/ Outside City limits ( Best )
Factor
Rating : 5 ( worst
) /
1 ( Best )
Factor
Weightage : 20
Select : Within city
limits
HQ : Rating x
Weightage = 5
x 20 = 100
Factor :
State of use
In Motion (
Worst ) /
Stationary - Parked ( Best )
Factor Rating : 5 (
Worst ) /
1 ( Best )
Factor Weightage :
20
Select : Moving
HQ : Rating
x Weightage = 5 x
20 = 100
Factor :
If parked
On Public Road / In
Public parking plot / In Private garage
Factor Rating : 5
( Worst) /
3 ( Fair
) / 1
( Best )
Factor weightage
: 10
Select : None (
since car is in motion )
HQ : Not
Applicable
F :
TRANSCORE IS TOTAL
OF HQs OF VARIOUS
FACTORS
So , what kind
of vehicle are we tracking ?
Diesel /
Privately owned / Carrying People /
> 10 years
old / Car / 3 – 4 persons / On City
Roads /
8 am – 10 am / Within city
/ Moving
What
is the total HQ [ Harm Quotient
] of this vehicle ?
75 + 50 + 25
+ 25
+ 25 + 15 + 25 + 25 + 100 + 100 = 465
This is usage having almost the “HIGHEST TRANSCORE” (Transcore = Σ
of HQs)
G :
SOME MORE EXAMPLES
OF TRANSCORE
Now following
usage is one yielding a “ Very Low TRANSCORE “
:
Li-ion Battery
driven Electric / Government Owned / Industrial Use / <
4 years old / Boat /
carrying 50 + persons / Inland Waterways / operating between 12 midnight to 8 am
/ Outside City limits / Moving
TRANSCORE = 30 + 10 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 5 + 20 + 100 = 190
And here is one
likely usage , yielding a “ Moderate TRANSCORE “ :
Petrol /
short hire / for people / 6 –
8 years old vehicle / Rickshaw /
capacity 3 – 4 persons / On City roads /
operating between 12 noon and 5 pm
/ within city limits /
moving
TRANSCORE = 60 +
30 + 25 + 15 + 15 + 15 + 25 + 15 + 100 + 100 =
400
H : TECHNOLOGY PLATFORM
This will consist of the following :
Satellite based “ Vehicle Tracking /
Monitoring “ system, covering entire India.
This will track all 220 + Million vehicles , on 24x7 , taking one
reading every 10 minute to compute the HQ of each vehicle. Final HQ for a given
hour will be the average of the 6 readings / hour
Based on (
variable ? ) TRANS-TAX formula , NaviC will , every hour , deduct
appropriate amount from FASTag
RFID embedded in each vehicle and
transfer to designated account of concerned State Government
For details of
how this will work , read :
Ø All
vehicles
All Vehicle manufacturers will be
mandated to embedded the vehicles with FASTag
RFID sensors and other sensors , listed at :
From these sensors , NaviC will be able
to pick up DATA re : Energy Source – Type of
vehicle – Capacity – Manufacturing date – Purpose – Emission levels etc , from all vehicles – ships – planes –
drones etc
Trucks transporting GOODS , ( and
embedded with RFID FASTags
into all carried packages ) will enable NaviC to integrate with e-way bill system
, as described in :
From following news ( 19 Nov 2018 ) , it seems this suggestion is
already under implementation :
Obviously each
vehicle being driven ( in motion ) is driven by a driver with a DRIVING LICENSE.
Just like E – PASSPORTS , driving
licenses too can be embedded with RFID sensors ( carrying full data of the driver
) . This data will be picked up by NaviC.
It is safe to assume that most – if
not all – of the passengers in a vehicle , are carrying smart phones with GPS feature . NaviC will be able to pick up this
data and figure out various kinds of
statistics ( Ave no of passengers / Total no of passengers).
CCTV cameras mounted on poles along city roads will be
capturing the data ( images ) of the HIGH SECURITY
vehicle number plates . I believe those
CCTVs could be embedded with RFID sensors , which can relay such data to NaviC
·
Pre-loaded “ Payment
Wallets “ [ FASTag
] , linked with owners’ Bank Accounts for automatic deductions every hour
·
Must have a dashboard
which displays HQ MATRIX tabulation , with current STATUS of that vehicle
highlighted , for ready reference by the driver / owner
·
Since it may not be
possible to have HQ MATRIX tabulation displayed on the dashboard of a Scooter ,
there will be a Mobile App for the same
Ø
24x7
monitoring through
·
Central Control Room (
Central Transport Ministry )
·
State Control Rooms
(State RTOs)
RTOs will be
able to see on their monitors , HQ MATRIX of any vehicle ( registered in the
State ) by simply clicking on the VEHICLE NUMBER appearing on the screen
To some extent ,
RTOs will function in much the same way as the Air
Traffic Control Rooms at various airports , monitoring the movement of
every vehicle ( including chain-snatchers riding a bike or running away after
shooting )
I : HOW WILL
THIS SYSTEM WORK ?
Based on the
continuous feedback ( of position of each vehicle ) by NaviC satellite,
algorithm will do the following :
·
Calculate the “
TRAN-SCORE “ for each and every vehicle , every hour and publish it on a web
site
· Based on this “
TRAN-SCORE “ compute “ TRANS-TAX “ payable by
each vehicle for each hour
and automatically deduct it from “ Onboard Payment Wallet “ [ FASTag
]
· If there is NIL balance
in the Payment Wallet , immobilize the concerned vehicle , till payment gets made
·
Provide data to
Insurance Companies for “ Dynamic “ insurance premiums payable
J :
LINKAGE OF TRANSCORE WITH AMOUNT
OF “ TRANS – TAX “ PAYABLE
Since TRANS –
TAX is a replacement for the Road-Taxes ( except that it is payable and automatically
deduced every hour ) , establishing a
linkage would require , tabulating the road – taxes ( and other
vehicle-ownership related taxes , if any ) for each type of vehicle in each
State
I have not done
this compilation but here is a suggestion :
Have 5 slabs of
TRANSCORE as follows :
0-100 / 101–200 / 201-300 / 301-400 / 401–500
The lowest slab
( 0 – 100 ) will attract approximately the same amount of total ANNUAL ROAD-TAX
that a given type of vehicle is currently pays . Call this BASE SLAB
Of course ,
other than a vehicle which is locked up in a garage for the entire year , no
other vehicle which is being used regularly , can be in the BASE SLAB ,
throughout the year !
In fact , in the
most likely scenario , a vehicle might have its TRANSCORE fluctuate all the way
from ( say ) 50 to as high as 450 , during different
times of the day !
Linkage for the
higher slabs can be :
·
101 – 200
> 150 %
of the BASE SLAB
tax
·
201 – 300
> 200 %
·
301 -
400 > 250
%
·
401 -
500 > 300
%
Idea behind such
an upward SLIDING SCALE is to discourage usages which
attract high HQ
K :
HOW ELSE CAN A NAVIC BASED “ VEHICLE TRACKING – TAXING SYSTEM “ BENEFIT
CITIZENS ?
Following is a partial list :
o Vehicle
Arrival / Departure display Boards at Bus Stops – Train Stations – Airports –
Sea Ports
o Alerting
Disaster Relief Teams – Hospitals – Ambulances – Relatives, during accidents
o Powering
Mobile Apps like Google Map for traffic density – time – alternate routes
o “Vehicles
Population Database “ by Type – Age – Energy Source – Ownership etc
o Generation
of dynamic TRAFFIC MAPS in real time
o Help
plan new traffic systems ( Hyperloop / Pod Taxi / MagLev / Cable Ways etc )
o And
who knows someday NaviC may even be able to TRACK , each Rs 2000 currency
note with RFID sensor embedded into it?
L :
TIME FRAME FOR
IMPLEMENTATION OF THIS
PROPOSAL
Event
|
Date
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Concerned
|
Publish
White Paper
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01 Jan
2019
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NITI Aayog
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Publish
Online Survey
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01 Feb
2019
|
NITI Aayog
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Publish
Survey Results
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01 March
2019
|
NITI Aayog
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Seminars
( Traffic Insti / Vehicle Mfrs )
|
01 April
2019
|
Shri Prabhu-Shri Gadkari
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Present
findings to State Trans Ministers
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01 May 2019
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Shri Prabhu-Shri Gadkari
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Place
order on ISRO ( System Design )
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01 June
2019
|
Transport Ministry
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Receive
System Design- Drawings from ISRO
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01 July
2019
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Transport Ministry
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Float
tender for Software Design- Apps / HW
|
01 Aug 2019
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Transport Ministry
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Place
orders on Suppliers
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01 Sept
2019
|
Transport Ministry
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Mandate
to Vehicle Mfrrs for pre-installing of
required RFID sensors / other sensors
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01 Sept
2019
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Transport Ministry
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All
new vehicles to be duly pre- installed
|
01
Jan 2020
|
Vehicle Manufacturers
|
Pilot
Testing ( without actually debiting RFID Fastag in vehicles )
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Jan
20 – Mar 20
|
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System
Modifications ( SW + HW ) based on data from soft launch
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April
20- June 20
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Final
launch
|
Aug 20
|
|
M :
WHICH COUNTRY IS
MOST LIKELY TO
IMPLEMENT THIS FIRST
?
I have no doubt it will be CHINA
Extract :
It has already began implementing a very
similar system called “ Social Credit “ to reward or punish individuals
( 1400 Million citizens ) , to improve city’s
BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
Will China rule the Sky ?
Added on 29 Nov :
Added on 04 Dec :
========================================================================
In India , we too can improve our own
“ Ease of Doing Business “ rank from
current 77 to ( possibly ) 27 , by implementing my suggestion
And without sounding Orwellian !
This
blog is being emailed to the following :
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[ Shri Suresh
Prabhuji ]
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[ Shri Nitin Gadkariji ]
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[ Institute of Urban
Transport – India ]
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[ Director – IRTS ]
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[ Institute of Road
Traffic Education ]
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[ Institute of Transportation &
Development Policy ]
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[ Asian Institute of Transport
Development ]
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[ Central Institute
of Road Transport
]
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[ Chartered Institute of Logistic
Transport ]
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[ Institute of Road and
Transport Technology ]
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[ Indian Institute of
Logistics ]
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[ Institute of Transport
Economics ]
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[ National
Institute of Design
- Ahmedabad ]
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[ IIT
- Bombay ]
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Relevant Readings
:
And here is confirmation of the logic behind my proposal :
=====================================================
26 Nov
2018
www.hemenparekh.in
/ blogs
=================================================
Re: PROPERT TAX based on RENT POTENTIAL
Dear
Prof Davidoff ,
I
just read about your concept at :
About
2 weeks back , I developed a very similar concept for a TRANS-TAX ( transport
tax ) based on “ Harm Potential “ of all vehicles
I
would be happy to receive your comments on :
Transport
: an Integrated Logistic Plan ?
with
regards,
hemen
Parekh
=======================
Davidoff, Thomas <thomas.davidoff@sauder.ubc.ca>
Hemen
Thank you for this note. What you
propose sounds like an integrated Pigouvian approach to transport pricing, which
I agree would be great.
Regards,
Tom
==================================
Dear Gourab,
Just came across following article about your research :
Your
research assumes significance , considering that Vehicular
traffic– especially urban – degrades environment and quality of
life , all around the world
There
are several dimensions of this “ Urban System “
that need to be tackled as a whole
In this
context, do you think the conceptual framework outlined in my following blog
looks feasible ?
Related
blogs :
===============================
Dear
Mr. Parekh,
thanks
for your note, and your interest in our group’s research.
As your proposal
falls into the broader philosophy of disincentivizing private transport, or
more accurately incentivizing the use of public transport, the ideas outlined
in your blog are certainly worth exploring.
Of course, this might serve as one
of “a basket of options” available to us to tackle this rather complex issue.
As you correctly surmise, much of it depends on the political climate of each
region, and the willingness of the citizenry to undergo some level of immediate
hardship in service of longer-term goals.
A multifaceted and flexible approach
is therefore the need of the hour.
With
regards,
Gourab
===============================
Gourab Ghoshal
Assistant Professor
Physics, Computer Science and Mathematics
University of Rochester
===========================================================================
