On 25 May 2016 , NDA Cabinet approved Capital Goods
Policy ( 2025 ) document
It is a very exhaustive and well-researched paper ,
providing a lot of statistics
These include following targets :
# PRODUCTION
Rs 2.3 lakh*crore ( in 2014-14 ) to go up to Rs 7.5
lakh*crore in 2025
An increase of Rs 5.2 lakh*crore ( by the tenth year )
# EMPLOYMENT
84 lakh ( in 2014-15 ) to go up to 300 lakh in 2025
An increase of 216 lakh ( by the tenth year )
Here are some " Back of the Envelope " type
of calculations :
# PRODUCTION PER
EMPLOYEE
Rs 2.74 lakh ( in 2014-15 ) going DOWN to Rs 2.50
lakh*crore ( in 2025 )
Is this in to-day's RUPEE terms ? At
today's SELLING PRICES ?
If not , what would this figure be , if NOT adjusted
for inflation ?
# CAPITAL OUT-PUT RATIO
I believe , this is close to ONE , for most of the
sub-sectors covered under Capital Goods Industry
If I am right , then the TOTAL CAPITAL EMPLOYED ( TCE )
currently in this industry , ought to be approximately the SAME as the value of
production , ie : Rs 2.3 lakh*crore
Now , let us assume ( correct me if I am wrong ) that
the INCREMENTAL CAPITAL OUTPUT RATIO ( ICOR ) for this industry is 4.0
That is , for each additional rupee of production , we
need to employ , FOUR rupees of Capital
If so , to raise OUTPUT by additional Rs 5.2 lakh*crore
, we would need to inject into the industry , Rs 20.8 lakh*crore worth of additional
Capital , over a period of 10 years ( 5.2*4 )
In turn , this raises following questions :
Will private sector come forward to make such investments
when the current Capacity Utilization of the industry is stagnating around 60 %
only , for want of orders - which ,
often need a lead-time of 2 years to execute ?
And , when IMPORTS constitute nearly 40 % of the annual
purchases of Capital Goods ?
When capital goods manufacturers in the shrinking
economies of Europe / Japan / China , are offering " deep discounts "
to sell their products to Indian buyers ?
I know of a Machinery Manufacturer of Italy , who depends
upon Indian Buyers for sale of 50 % of his factory output !
When gestation period for setting up a factory to make
Capital Goods , can easily take 3 years ?
I hope CII / FICCI / ASSOCHAM etc will conduct an
ONLINE SURVEY of their Members and elicit their OBJECTIVE ASSESSMENT of the
newly announced policy , in order to provide a QUICK FEEDBACK to the government
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29 May 2016
www.hemenparekh.in / blogs
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