Acknowledgement :
Some of the information reproduced below, is sourced from :
Definition of a Black Swan :
· It is an " OUTLIER ", as it lies outside the realm of regular expectations ,
because nothing in the past can convincingly point to its possibility
· It carries an " EXTREME IMPACT "
· In spite of its outlier status , human nature makes us concoct
" EXPLANATION " for its occurrence , after the fact , making it
explainable and PREDICTABLE
In brief ,
· Rarity
· Extreme Impact
· Retrospective Predictability
According to Nassem Taleb, author of book “ Back Swan “ :
* The highly expected " not happening ", is also a Black Swan
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Following tabulation shows some of the Electric Cars { displayed at AUTO EXPO-2020 } which are expected to be launched in 2020
Does any of these look like a Black Swan ?
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Srl No
|
Brand
|
Battery Capacity(Kwh )
|
Range ( Km )
|
Expected Price
( Rs Lakh )
|
Price / Kwh of Li-ion Battery
( Rs Lakh )
|
1
|
Audi e Tron
|
95
|
400
|
90
|
0.95
|
2
|
Jaguar Pace
|
90
|
470
|
100
|
1.11
|
3
|
Porche Tycan
|
79.2
|
333 - 407
|
108
|
1.36
|
4
|
MG ZS EV
|
44.5
|
340
|
21
|
0.47
|
5
|
BMW i 3
|
42
|
150 - 200
|
100
|
2.4
|
6
|
Nissan Leaf
|
40
|
230 - 250
|
35
|
0.9
|
7
|
M&M XUV 300 EV
|
40
|
200 – 300
|
13
|
0.32
|
8
|
Tata Nexon EV
|
30.2
|
300
|
14
|
0.46
|
9
|
Tata Altroz EV
|
30
|
300
|
14
|
0.47
|
10
|
M&M e KUV 100
|
15.9
|
140
|
8.5
|
0.53
|
11
|
Maruti Suzuki Futuro
|
6.2 - 8
| |||
12
|
GWM ( China ) Ora R 1
| ||||
13
|
Hyundai Kona
|
450
|
25
|
Which could qualify as a Black Swan among Electric Cars ?
None of the above
It would be a car that would eliminate the need for thousands of road-side ( Lithium-ion ) Battery Charging Stations
Currently, there are about 58,000 petrol / diesel pumps
{ read : 25,000 New Petrol Pumps ? Why ? }
As far as Battery Charging Stations are concerned, current scenario is as follows :
Ø Sanctioned ( in 62 cities ) …………………… 2,636
Ø Of which, by TATA Power………………………. 5,00
Ø By ONGC………………………………………………… 1,400
Ø Plus , by Government……………………………14,000
Depending upon “ fast charging “ capability, cost of setting up a Battery Charging Station can go up to Rs 25 lakhs
Are there any Black Swan candidates among Electric Cars ?
Yes !
There are two strong contenders ( - pity they did not / could not display at Auto Expo )
[ A ]
Cars with Solar roof-top panels , charging a small Li-ion Battery, as long as roof is exposed to sun light .
If some charging is required, it can be done at night from a domestic outlet, but no need for road-side battery charging stations ! No “ range anxiety “ !
Our own ISRO has demonstrated such a Maruti Van , nearly 3 years back :
Solar Panels charging Li-ion Batteries of Electric Cars ? [ 04 May 2017 ]
And Dilip Chitre of Nagpur , too has developed a prototype :
Congratulations, Dilip Chitre [ 28 Oct 2019 ]
Then there are foreign contenders like :
Let Us go Dutch ! [ 21 Jan 2018 ]
[ B ]
Cars that use Metal – Air batteries , which do not need road-side battery charging .
These batteries get charged using AIR which surrounds us !
Here is information on possible contenders :
A PM with “ Inside Information “ ? [ 04 Feb 2020 ]
Congratulations , Shri GopuKumarji [ 30 Jan 2019 ]
Ashok Leyland : On the double [ 01 Apr 2018 ]
Holy Grail for Electric Vehicles [ 17 Feb 2018 ]
EV juice from Alu-Air Battery ? [ 16 Jan 2018 ]
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I hope our Policy Makers realize / appreciate the importance of above-mentioned ALTERNATIVES
Then again, a Black Swan could also show up, if :
Ø Oil sells for $ 100 / barrel , and
Ø Rupee slides to $ 1 = Rs 100 ?
That would cost Rs 10,000 to buy a barrel of oil, which when refined, would yield between 40 – 70 litre of petrol ( depending upon the quality of crude ) . Let us assume, 50 litre of refined petrol from 1 barrel of crude
So , before refining, the RAW MATERIAL COST would be Rs 200 per litre of petrol !
For you , that would translate to Rs 450 per litre at the petrol pump !
You do not have to be an expert to guess what such a scenario could mean to our economy
Of course, a great majority of experts would assure us that there is a very low probability of such an event happening
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10 Feb 2020
hcp@RecruitGuru.com