Context and my take
I read the remarks by Mukesh Ambani mukesh.ambani@ril.com at the JioBlackRock event with interest: he said that "in the next decade, India will not import 80% of its energy" and that with technology and large-scale investment the country can become "reasonably self-sufficient" in energy India can become largely energy self-sufficient with tech breakthroughs: Mukesh Ambani. As someone who has written about the potential of large-scale renewables and storage before (see my earlier notes on solar scale and grid ideas) Solar Power at Rs 1 per KWh? and Powering India's Prosperity, I find his optimism familiar — and worth testing against the facts.
Where India stands today (short data snapshot)
- India is a very large energy consumer and remains heavily import-dependent for liquid fuels: crude oil import dependency is roughly 88–89% in recent government statistics, while natural gas imports are materially higher than a decade ago and coal still sees significant imports for power and industry [Energy Statistics India; MOSPI Executive Summary; EIA country brief]. For example, MOSPI provisional figures for 2023–24 note crude oil import dependency near 88.9%, natural gas around 46.6% and coal ~25.9% MOSPI Energy Statistics 2024 Chapter / Executive Summary Executive Summary.
- Journalistic coverage of the fireside chat summarized the claim as: today India imports close to 80% of its energy, and Ambani expects that level to fall sharply within a decade with scale investments in renewables, hydrogen, storage and other technology [Economic Times; Moneycontrol]. See reporting: India won't be importing 80% of its energy in next decade: RIL chief Mukesh Ambani.
Drivers that could plausibly cut imports
- Rapid renewables growth and storage scale-up: India has been adding solar and wind capacity at record pace. If variable renewables combined with grid upgrades and large-scale storage (batteries and pumped hydro) can reliably replace imported fuels for power and some industrial uses, import pressure falls.
- Electrification of transport and greater efficiency: faster EV penetration reduces diesel/petrol demand growth. The pace of vehicle electrification, charging infrastructure and battery manufacturing will matter a lot.
- LNG and domestic gas scale: expansion of domestic gas production (and long-term LNG contracts or spot purchases) can replace some oil-derived energy in industry and power. EIA and other agencies show India growing as an LNG importer; policy to expand pipelines and gas networks helps absorb imports into the system more productively EIA Country Analysis: India.
- Domestic hydrocarbon development and alternative fuels: modest increases in domestic oil/gas from exploration, greater ethanol blending, biofuels and synthetic fuels reduce crude demand.
- Large private and public investment: conglomerates (including Reliance) are committing capital to renewables, hydrogen and electrolyser factories — those investments can accelerate deployment if delivered at scale quickly.
Why the ten-year timeline is optimistic (but not impossible)
- Composition matters: the headline "80% of its energy" conflates primary energy, electricity, and petroleum products. Crude oil import dependency for transport alone is very high (~89%). Cutting overall import dependence from ~80% to ~20% would require dramatic reductions in oil imports and very large substitution by domestically produced energy (renewables, storage, gas, biofuels, nuclear). That is a tall order in ten years.
- Infrastructure and manufacturing scale: building GW-scale renewables is feasible; building the complementary storage, grid reinforcement, electrolyser and green-hydrogen supply chains, plus manufacturing for panels, batteries and electrolysers at the scale needed, takes time and policy consistency.
- Demand growth: India’s energy demand is expanding with GDP and industrialisation. Rapid demand growth can blunt the effect of domestic supply gains unless substitution reduces the oil share quickly (EVs, modal shifts, efficiency).
- Capital and delivery risks: funding, land acquisition, supply chains, and execution — even with strong private capital — are real bottlenecks. Ambitious announcements do not always convert to commissioned capacity on schedule.
Implications if Ambani’s scenario materialises
- Economic: a large reduction in the import bill would improve the current account and fiscal space, lower exposure to oil price shocks and free capital for other investments. Domestic manufacturing (modules, batteries, electrolysers) could create export opportunities.
- Geopolitical: reduced reliance on Middle Eastern/other suppliers would change diplomatic leverage and import bargaining dynamics. India’s energy diplomacy would shift from securing crude cargoes to securing critical minerals, hydrogen tech and manufacturing inputs.
- Industrial structure: winners would be domestic renewables, storage, green hydrogen, electrolyser and battery manufacturers — and firms that retrofit processes to electrify.
What needs to happen for it to be credible
- Scale renewables + storage rapidly: continued auctions, easy financing, domestic manufacturing incentives and streamlined land/permits.
- Accelerate EV adoption and freight modal shifts: make EVs and public transport cheaper and charging ubiquitous.
- Build gas infrastructure thoughtfully: more pipelines, regas terminals and contractual diversity for LNG while boosting domestic gas production where possible.
- Invest in hydrogen and hard-to-electrify sectors: electrolyser factories, pilot industrial uses, and demand-side mandates.
- Policy stability and financing: long-term, bankable policy signals, blended finance vehicles, and productised household investment avenues to crowd in capital.
- Focus on execution and timelines: convert announcements to commissioned capacity; measure progress transparently.
Final, balanced verdict
As someone who believes in India’s capacity to scale energy solutions (and has argued for aggressive solar and system-level thinking in earlier posts), I find Mukesh Ambani mukesh.ambani@ril.com's claim inspirational and directionally right: technology plus capital can sharply reduce import dependence. But the specific numerical leap — from importing roughly 80% to importing only 20% of energy in ten years — is extremely ambitious. Achieving large gains is plausible; achieving complete transformation in a decade requires extraordinary execution on everything from manufacturing to grids, storage and demand-side shifts.
If India wants to make Ambani’s forecast a practical roadmap rather than a bravura prediction, the emphasis must be on measurable milestones, transparent delivery and filling the gaps between corporate announcements and commissioned capacity.
References
- Mukesh Ambani's remarks: Economic Times coverage.
- India energy statistics and import dependency: MOSPI Energy Statistics 2024 (Chapter and Executive Summary) MOSPI Energy Statistics 2025 Chapter 4 Executive Summary.
- Country analysis and LNG trends: U.S. EIA Country Brief: India.
- My earlier reflections on large-scale solar and economics: Solar Power at Rs 1 per KWh? and Powering India's Prosperity.
Regards,
Hemen Parekh
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