Something is better than Nothing

That could be said about the following news :

Jobs data accounting for small businesses soon     [ Hindustan Times / 22 Sept 2019 ]

This set of data will also count proprietary shops or self-owned, self-operated businesses which may have no hired labour, such as a roadside vendor.

The establishment-based survey by the labour bureau

Highlights :

#   The country’s first periodic labour force survey (PLFS) for July 2017-June 2018 released

     by the government in June showed an unemployment rate of 6.1%, the highest in about

    four decades.

#  The last “unemployment-employment survey” was carried out in July 2011-June 2012,

     according to which the all-India unemployment rate was 2.7%.

#   In 2018, when at least 28 million people applied for about 90,000 vacancies announced

     by India Railways, the country’s biggest employer

#   In any jobs survey, people with jobs are categorised as employed.

     People without jobs but looking for work are considered unemployed

     

#  The labour force participation rate is sum of :

    [ people who are employed + people who are not employed ]

     

    In a rough-and-ready sense, the unemployment rate then is simply :

    { number of unemployed / the labour force } x  100

    

Above findings must be read in conjunction with the following report prepared by Labour Bureau  :

Mudra loan reality check: Each job costs Rs 5.1 lakh; only 20 percent borrowers started new business     [  Financial Express / 04 Sept 2019 ]

Highlights :

#  The draft report has found that as many as 1.12 crore additional jobs were created

    during the first 33 months (April 2015-December 2017) of the implementation of the

    scheme

#  Break-up of these 1.2 cr “ additional jobs “ :

Ø   self-employed or working owners, including unpaid family members…...................... 51.06 Lakh

Ø  employees or hired workers ………… 60.94 Lakh

Ø  only one of five beneficiaries (20.6 per cent) availed the Mudra loan for starting a new business while the remaining applicants used the Mudra money for expanding their existing business.

 

Ø  The report also said that the number of additional jobs created in 33 months was less than 10 per cent of the total number of loans

Ø  During the first three years, Rs 5.71 lakh crore of loans was sanctioned

Ø  The loans provided under Shishu category led to the creation of 66 per cent new jobs. The new job creation percentage for loans under Kishor and Tarun categories were 18.85 per cent and 15.51 per cent respectively.

Ø  Dividing the total amount of loan disbursed by the number of additional job created, one comes to the conclusion that around Rs 5.1 lakh in Mudra loan was extended for creation of each additional job

======================================================

Above findings must be read in conjunction with my following earlier Email to the Cabinet Ministers  :

 

    How much Capital to create One job ?             [  22 June 2017  ]

  Extract from above-mentioned Email :

 Some ONE MILLION  ( ten lakh ) youngsters enter the job market , EACH MONTH

How much CAPITAL ( fixed + working ) would be required to give jobs to all of them ?

Following are my guesses to create just  ONE JOB  in :

·         Pan Beedi shop ( self-employed )………….Rs   1   lakh

·         Tiny grocery shop ( owner operated )…. Rs   3   lakh

·         Barber shop …………………………………………..Rs   5   lakh

·         Pharmacy shop……………………………………… Rs   10  lakh

·         Auto Repair Garage………………………………. Rs   20  lakh

·         Small Factory ( 50 people )………………..   Rs   50  lakh

·         Medium Factory ( 100 people )……………. Rs   75  lakh

·         Large light engineering factory………………Rs  100  lakh ( Rs 1 cr  )

{ Just proposed SAMSUNG factory in UP will invest Rs 5,000 cr and , at full capacity , employ 5,000 people }

·         Machine Tool Manufacturing factory………………….   Rs  2  crore

·         Heavy Engineering factory ( Pressure Vessels )…. Rs  5  crore

·         Service Industry ( based on IT / internet )…………. Rs  50 lakh

It is not difficult to see WHY jobs are not getting created , despite the fact that we have a huge DOMESTIC MARKET to serve 1.3 BILLION people !

It would require a huge amount of CAPITAL to create jobs for 12 million people, each year

======================================================

Conclusions :

#  “ Mudra Loan Impact Report “ findings confirm the estimates in the above mentioned

       blog / E Mail  [  Rs 5.01 lakh to create each “ Self Employment “- on an average  ]

#    Even if motivated by yesterday’s announcement of drastically reduced Corporate

     Taxes , if NEW MANUFACTURING factories were to come up, there is no way these

     can create ONE MILLION new jobs ( hires ), per month !

At an estimated investment of Re 1 CRORE per hire ( in a Light Engineering Factory ), we would need investment of Rs 1 MILLION*CRORE per month !

#   It is high time our Economists / Political Leaders / TV Panel Experts etc., admit this

     fact and focus on creating SELF EMPLOYMENT

#   In the meantime , to generate a huge CONSUMER DEMAND ( the Prime Motivator for

     new investments ) , Govt  should drastically reduce the Personal Income Tax , as

    suggested in my following E Mail yesterday to the Cabinet Ministers :

 

         Better late than Never 

===============================================

22  Sept  2019

Rsvp :  hcp@RecruitGuru.com

 

Better late than Never

Yesterday’s corporate tax cut announcement by the Central Government, could be described as such

Over the past few years, many other countries have lowered their Corporate taxes

See details at :

List of countries by tax rates

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_tax_rates 

This is something Companies were demanding for a long time . But it took the current sluggish state of our economy that finally triggered this action

Of course, this step would encourage those companies to now go forward with their investment plans – where these were held back due to uncertainty of the profitability

But, it would still NOT encourage any company to come forward with investment if the company does NOT see enough consumer demand for its products

Hence, can we expect Madam Sitharamanji to follow this up with a strong INCENTIVE to the consumers to loosen their purse strings and start spending to create a massive CONSUMER DEMAND ?

An incentive such as a deep reduction in Personal Income Tax ?

Or a GAME CHANGING and REVOLUTIONARY step of total abolition of Personal Income Tax ? – something which I have been advocating by sending following E Mails to the Cabinet Ministers :

A CASE FOR ZERO PERSONAL INCOME TAX              [  11  Nov  2014  ]

What would they do ?                                 [  03  May  2016  ]

What would happen ?                                  [  29  Sept  2017  ]

Tax Sops ? How about Abolishing ?      [ 08 Jan 2018 ]

Thanking You in Anticipation !             [ 24  Jan  2018 ]

( comprising links to 24 E Mails on this subject )

 

 

Waiting for the Full Film                      [ 01 Feb 2019 ]

Extract from the above mentioned  E Mail  :

After Shri Goyal’s  Budget speech yesterday , Shri Modi said :

“ This was only a trailer . Wait for the release of the full film after the general elections  “

Interpretation :

#  TRAILER

     Abolishing Personal Income Tax for persons earning up to Rs 5 lakh / year

#  FULL FILM

    Total abolition of Personal Income Tax .

   ( In past 3 years, I have sent 20 emails for releasing this film )

Madam Nirmala Sitharamanji,

 [ fmo@nic.in  ]

We are awaiting the release of the FULL FILM  !

====================================================================================

21  Sept  2019

Rsvp :  hcp@RecruitGuru.com

  

Realization ? Yes but Gradual and Grudgingly ?

Following news appeared today :

Soon, private vehicles to provide carpooling service

Just like ride-hailing apps Ola and Uber, private car owners can soon provide carpooling service.

Highlights :

#  The draft guidelines propose to limit the maximum number of rides taken per day to four

#   The carpooling concept would be based on no profit, no loss model and a service

     provider will only be able to recover the input cost

#   Carpooling by private vehicle owners will be allowed only through mobile apps.

#   Aggregators will need to ensure that KYC – or, the process of verifying the identity of a

     client – for both the vehicle owner and the riders is complete

#   The vehicle owner will have to declare trip details before the start of a trip.

#    With a massive push to Shared Mobility, the government aims to decongest roads by

      bringing down the huge numbers of cars plying on road. The move would also reduce

      pollution levels.

============================================

Gradual and grudging because 2 years ago, Transport Ministry was opposed to the car-pooling idea , as reported under :

Transport ministry opposes NITI Aayog's plan to let taxi aggregators rope in private cars

 

 

The ministry is of the view that commercial vehicles are registered as such and there is no provision to allow private cars to run as app-based taxis.

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Except that the proposed guidelines , instead  of  encouraging car pooling, seems to be designed to kill this idea !

Who – and how – will  track  / ensure,  4 rides per day ?

What is the “ INPUT COST “ ( for hundreds of variants of cars ) and who will decide the same ?

How will Govt decide that car pooling remains “ No profit “ business ? 

And which car owner wants to go  through  all the  stringent restrictions / stipulations, for a “ No Profit “ business ?

How will you stop car pooling which is done offline ?     Happens even now !

Every ride may have different “ riders “ for each ride . Is e-KYC possible ?

Declare “ trip details “ BEFORE  start of EACH trip ?  To whom and how ?

     

=======================================================

If the Transport Ministry is really keen to,

Ø    Push shared mobility

Ø    Decongest roads

Ø    Reduce pollution,

then , it should seriously consider implementing,

Transport : an Integrated Logistic Plan ?

But, I get a feeling that the Transport Ministry is trapped in the King Canute syndrome !

Remembering King Canute !  [  17  July  2017  ]

 

=====================================================

17  Sept  2019

Rsvp :  hcp@RecruitGuru.com

Back to square one ?

Following news appeared in today’s Times of India :

In a few years, we’ll be making petrol from air

Burning petrol and diesel made from carbon dioxide present in the air does not cause global warming

If only we could suck carbon dioxide out of the air like plants, and turn it into useful things — like petrol, plastics and concrete — the spectre of global warming would go away.

 Scientists have long toyed with the idea of ‘direct air capture (DAC)’, but now it has become a viable technology, says Peter H Diamandis, founder of the XPrize Foundation.

Extract from Times of India news report :

“ In the coming 10 years, sourcing carbon out of the air will become more cost-effective than carbon sourced from the ground ( oil ).

By 2030, the carbon capture and utilization [ CCU ] industry is expected to reach $ 800 billion

While experts say DAC can compete with petroleum once the cost of carbon extraction dips below $ 100 per ton, one startup is already claiming $ 94 per ton , while another promises to do it at $ 50 per ton on large scale “

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Read technical narration at :

https://www.diamandis.com/blog/direct-air-capture 

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I suppose the very powerful OIL LOBBY [ OPEC ], will realize the threat and may even consider getting into the DAC game themselves , to render Startup competition, irrelevant !

After all, no startup ( or the VCs backing it ), can match the resources (funds )  of Oil Companies

The Oil companies do not want to become obsolete !

And that is the REAL DANGER

Carbon extracted from air will be converted into petrol  by Oil companies, using giant CONVERTERS ( instead of Crackers / Refiners )

Then marketed through the network of same petrol pumps , that exist today

And all existing petrol vehicles can fill up their tanks with this AIR-PETROL ( - expect the Oil companies to brand this as CLEAN PETROL  ! )

And all of these vehicles will continue to release CO / CO2 / Nitrous Oxide  emissions , as now !

Back to square one ?

Remember, this is not the same as extracting Water from thin Air – even in very dry areas, as described in :

Water above our heads [ 29  March 2019 ]

https://myblogepage.blogspot.com/2019/03/water-above-our-heads.html 

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15  Sept  2019

Rsvp :  hcp@RecruitGuru.com